Information overload

[andicap]

I've been thinking with this new Formulator 4.0 and all the trainer info, charts, etc. available on it. Does anyone think it's all (not just the DRF but everywhere) TOO MUCH information.

If this was 1980 and we were all just betting one card a day (OK, except for Karl) it might be great. But since many of us are looking over 2 or 3 cards when we bet (or more), can't all this information get overwhelming. I can't check EVERY trainer for what he did under today's conditions trying to find a pattern or check EVERY chart (or even a lot of them -- that was just for effect.)
Outside of people who are retired, professionals or students cutting classes, who has time, especially if you have a family and other obligations like most of us do.

I'll try Formulator of course because I am interested in those new features and you've got to keep up with the competition, but at what point do you go crazy looking at so many things? i'm thinking about the guy on board who has spent a week capping the Derby and is more confused than ever.
I don't plan to spend more time on this than I do on a normal complex race. That's 15 minutes max. If I do too much I'll second guess myself right out a horse like War Emblem which I did when my figures said, "go," but my brain said "stop."

As Yogi Berra once said, (paraphrasing) you can think too much.

[cj]

I'm with you, I spend 10 minutes tops looking at a race. I look at overall ability, any notable trainer changes (ie possibility of a big jump up,) and current form. That's about it, and it serves me pretty well. I'm afraid if I dig too deep I'll talk myself out of as many horses that win as I'll find new winners. Main thing I use F4 for is to look at charts for the more detailed comment.

For example, yesterday's 9th at CD the top figure horse had this comment in his PPs:

Forced pace, faltered

In the chart:

CLOUD WALKER maneuvered in soon after the start to press the winner five wide, continued in closest attendance to STRENGTH AND HONOR into the final furlong and faltered.

That's about it for me. Too much is not worth the time for me.

[keilan]

I tend to agree with you.

I make a point of not reading any information written about any of the Derby horses. Bits of information keep me from thinking clearly and I realize from past Derby's that I tend to consider bits of information that are written by writers not accomplished players.

Matter of fact I almost never look at the morning line in any race. After I have chosen the horses I like, I then try and formulate a wagering strategy to get the most out of the race.

I'll treat this race like any other but I suspect it will take me about 20 minutes to disect the race. I'm going to handicap the Derby from the premise that the pace will be brisk but the winner will be either an E or EP horse. If I'm wrong I'll live with that.

[TravisVOX]

The Kentucky Derby takes all us horseplayers as victims. "My horse looks super" or "I'm really excited about our chances." Right. I can't go with that, I'm looking at the numbers, trips and the standard operating procedure. Getting set to finalize my selection tonight...stay tuned! hahaha, riiiight. Take care and good luck.

[Fastracehorse]

<I've been thinking with this new Formulator 4.0 and all the trainer info, charts, etc. available on it. Does anyone think it's all (not just the DRF but everywhere) TOO MUCH information.
================================

I think you nailed that one bang on Andicap.

I get better at handicapping as I continually prove myself wrong. That is, when you learn what doesn't work, you are learning what does.

There is an advantage to filtering the noise ( noise=useless information ). And that advantage is: You can handicap more tracks.

fffastt

[SAL]

I disagree. The key to coming out ahead in this game is having information that your opponents do not. If you know something about a particular runner, race, or trainer that most people don't, you have an edge.

I have found Formulator 4 to be the most advanced handicapping product I have used yet.

[Tom]

andicap,
I use either Testor or the exposrt datbase from HTR and then play what is winning there. I used that simple procedure for every rade during KOTH and had very acceptable results. The best I have ever had in many, many years. And the streak continues. I spend a lot less time per race than ever before, In fact, for SA on the last doay of the contest, I did the entire in 7 minutes and hit ver 50% winners. There was a threatening thunderstorm, it got pitch black out at noon, and I was aftraid I would lose power so I had to hurry.
The secret, for me, is to strip out all those extaneous things and focus on what I understand and what works through my records.

[jackad]

Tom,
What's Testor?

Jack

[trying2win]

Originally posted by Tom
andicap,
I used that simple procedure for every rade during KOTH and had very acceptable results.

TOM,

I know that "rade" is probably a typo for race, but what does KOTH mean? I'm just curious.

Thanks,

T2W

[Tom]

KOTH - King of the Hill Contest-was held here on PA's board-see special section. Next one starts Saturday.

Tester- it is a utility in HTR that allows you to look at the WP results and ROI of a multitude of factors. A quick and dirt proile of what wins at certain tracks. Things like velocity (EP, AP, SP F1, F2, F3,) speed ratings, etc,

[trying2win]

Originally posted by Tom
KOTH - King of the Hill Contest-was held here on PA's board-see special section. Next one starts Saturday.

Thanks Tom,

I'm now more enlightened....

T2W

[andicap]

Originally posted by Tom
KOTH - King of the Hill Contest-was held here on PA's board-see special section. Next one starts Saturday.

Tester- it is a utility in HTR that allows you to look at the WP results and ROI of a multitude of factors. A quick and dirt proile of what wins at certain tracks. Things like velocity (EP, AP, SP F1, F2, F3,) speed ratings, etc,

Thanks, Tom. You know, I don't run that tester as often as I should -- probably because I'm so skeptical of automatic pacelines, but I will now check it out.

[trying2win]

ANDICAP,

Speaking of information overload , I just noticed at the Brisnet site, that they have a bunch of new products for handicappers. Things like

--Daily Clocker Reports,
--Daily Performance Ratings
--Weekly Clocker Reports
--Weekly Trip Notes
--Weekly Fit and Ready Lists
--Extra Workout Reports
--Horses to Watch List

The above list seems like a bunch of extra reports for worry-warts who are afraid they're going to miss some little things in their handicapping. The only thing they might find they're missing, is in their wallets to pay for all this extra info... LOL.

I prefer the KEEP IT SIMPLE, time-saving style of handicapping. Eliminate certain types of races, and short-field races. Then scan the remaining races with the handicapping software I use, looking for possible plays. Apply a few filters and make some decisons. How about you?

Regards,


T2W

[bettheoverlay]

I have been shedding as much information as possible the last few years. I've learned to trust my instincts after 40 years of this stuff, because I do much better that way. My best scores historically have been when I devoted the least amount of time to the bet.

Or maybe I'm just too dumb to effectively analyze race shapes, feet per second, track bias and all the assorted esoterica others have so much confidence in.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Thanks, Tom. You know, I don't run that tester as often as I should -- probably because I'm so skeptical of automatic pacelines, but I will now check it out.

Andy,
It is easy to use Testor wtih each of the paceline modes. In fact, I find PL 1 superior in Maiden races, PL2 in high class stakes, alw, etc and PL4 in turf races. Testor will tell which is the most predictive at each track rather quickly. And I also can use PL0 to monitor my own paceline selection. GR1 posted some stuff about this a while back.