Driver ROIs

[Ray2000]

The recent ink about J Morrill made me take a look at my Driver Stats
THESE ARE NOT official numbers, only the races I use are in the data.

I am not implying anything, I just found it interesting where JM ranks in ROI
I would love to see the Official numbers if anyone has them.

Drivers with > 1000 starts in 2013 and at least a 15% Win percentage

Name			ROI	Win%	UDR
Hensley, Ed		1.032	19.5%	0.312
Fisher, Ray  Jr		1.010	18.2%	0.307
Henry, Trevor		0.984	21.8%	0.339
Merton, Gregory		0.971	19.7%	0.329
Palone, Dave		0.850	24.1%	0.363
Buter, Tyler		0.848	17.4%	0.300
Davis, Billy J 		0.836	15.0%	0.265
Mcnair, Douglas		0.827	16.0%	0.276
Waples, Randall		0.823	15.2%	0.274
Allard, Simon		0.810	16.5%	0.280
Noble, Dan		0.804	15.6%	0.271
Stahl, Ryan		0.797	15.9%	0.280
Gingras, Yannic		0.794	19.8%	0.323
Miller, David S		0.794	15.5%	0.279
Zeron, Scott R		0.790	16.4%	0.282
Hennessey, Wall		0.783	17.8%	0.304
Sears, Brian		0.781	18.4%	0.309
Manzi, Cat		0.777	15.2%	0.283
Kakaley, Matt		0.766	15.7%	0.283
Marohn, Jim  Jr		0.762	18.9%	0.322
Leonard, Casey		0.754	15.5%	0.277
Milby, Frank		0.740	15.8%	0.272
Aldrich, Bruce 		0.728	18.7%	0.316
Brennan, George		0.717	16.0%	0.289
Jamieson, Jody 		0.714	16.8%	0.291
Oosting, Mich		0.712	17.4%	0.289
Napolitano, Geo		0.706	16.5%	0.291
Miller, Andy		0.703	15.1%	0.278
Page, Chris		0.700	16.0%	0.275
Tetrick, Tim A		0.684	16.8%	0.294
Callahan, Corey		0.679	16.0%	0.275
Wrenn, Ronnie  		0.662	16.2%	0.280
Parker, William		0.658	15.8%	0.277
Filion, Sylvain		0.645	15.0%	0.281
Morrill, Jim  		0.624	17.2%	0.312

[Just a Fan]

Courtesy of Trackmaster/Statsmaster, here are Morrill's numbers at PcD, his primary track in 2013 (but apparently not in 2014 ).

849 drives, 169 wins, 20% win rate, .339 UDR, -32% ROI.

The ROI is low, but it is not out of line with other top drivers there such as Geo Nap, Kakaley, Buter, Carlson, and Pavia.

Statsmaster allows you to filter the data to show just favorites, and here are Morrill's Pocono stats with faves:

212 drives, 96 wins, 45% wins, .609 UDR, -16% ROI.

http://www.trackmaster.com/statsmaster/PCD.html

Nothing really out of the ordinary in Morrill's overall stats. Its hard to know if the ban is related to a questionable drive(s) or other bad behavior, but given the ratio between the purses there and the pools, it seems like Pocono would be an unlikely setting for a "bad" race (unless there were some shenanigans offshore). I am very surprised to see Callahan so low on your list (understanding that the stats might not be all inclusive). He had a positive 6% ROI in 722 drives at the Meadowlands last year, although he had a -33% ROI at Dover while leading the standings there. No data available from Philly.

[Ray2000]

Thx for posting the link, JAF

I would have been a very bad accountant, if that was my career choice because I subscribe to the "Close Enough" theory when it comes to data keeping. My numbers are missing about 10-15% of starts for drivers and are not corrected for scheduled driver vs actual driver. That's why I'm reluctant to even post my numbers but always try to mention these are NOT the official numbers. USTA doesn't believe in ROIs and online TM data is Track Specific so it's up to the player to derive this stuff by himself.

BTW
My numbers for Callahan at Harrahs are :
1100 drives 13% Win rate, .65 roi, guess that is what pulls his numbers down.



At BigM for comparison, I have 552 drives 17% wins, .89 roi

might be missing a monster hit ? ....dunno

[Just a Fan]

Callahan had 722 drives at the Meadowlands in the calendar year 2013 (again, according to Trackmaster) with that + 6% ROI. The best ROI months were all early in the year, I guess the public caught on to him.

I don't even know how you keep up with all that stuff (or 85-90% of the stuff, anyway ), I have a QH database that I maintain to create my own speed figs, and its very time consuming. Harness racing was kind of my first love, I keep up with what's going on but other than the winter months (when I don't have a night track to bet) I don't bet harness racing much anymore.

[cmp92]

Without anything more than speculation, I'm confused how Morrill is welcome at the Meadowlands but he gets the boot from Pocono? Guys like Pena and Allard are not welcome at the Big M, but Pocono welcomes these guys. I know Morrill has had a checkered past, but given Pocono's reputation, it must really take a lot to get kicked out. What could Morrill have possibly done? Why Pocono but not the Meadowlands? Personal feud/vendetta? Judging how guys in New York drive against Morrill, I don't think many people ever really confront Morrill. Is the Meadowlands desperate since Gingras and Tetrick are away until late April? Why has it been kept quiet (Pocono has said nothing about the matter)?

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by cmp92

Without anything more than speculation, I'm confused how Morrill is welcome at the Meadowlands but he gets the boot from Pocono? Guys like Pena and Allard are not welcome at the Big M, but Pocono welcomes these guys. I know Morrill has had a checkered past, but given Pocono's reputation, it must really take a lot to get kicked out. What could Morrill have possibly done? Why Pocono but not the Meadowlands? Personal feud/vendetta? Judging how guys in New York drive against Morrill, I don't think many people ever really confront Morrill. Is the Meadowlands desperate since Gingras and Tetrick are away until late April? Why has it been kept quiet (Pocono has said nothing about the matter)?

This is a good point, it seems to me that Morrill tries hard on all his drives, its not like he's decking 2-5 shots, if he's on a major contender, he's driving to win.....at least that's what i've seen.

As far as Morrill's ROI, he drives a LOT of 1-5 shots at Buffalo and some of these other smaller places, so maybe all the 2.60 winners hurt his ROI, but that's just a guess.

[Just a Fan]

Derick Giwner is reporting that Morrill will be allowed back at PcD on May 1.

Have to think that the punishment had to do with some sort of bad behavior not related to race fixing, if they are letting him back in. And if they are waiting a month rather than reinstating him immediately, then they are telling us that the reinstatement isn't because Pocono feels like they made a mistake in the first place.

I have a very hard time believing Morrill when he says he has no idea what this is all about.

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

This is a good point, it seems to me that Morrill tries hard on all his drives, its not like he's decking 2-5 shots, if he's on a major contender, he's driving to win.....at least that's what i've seen.

As far as Morrill's ROI, he drives a LOT of 1-5 shots at Buffalo and some of these other smaller places, so maybe all the 2.60 winners hurt his ROI, but that's just a guess.

During the Summer, he drives the NYSS Circuit and is continually over bet. Young erratic horses, especially trotters, even more so,Filly trotters should not be 1/5.

That said, from a purely skill standpoint, Morrill is a phenomenal driver, one of the best ever.

Put it this way, all but a small handful of drivers on Morrill's horses, at the same odds would have as good of a ROI.

[cmp92]

Originally Posted by Just a Fan

Derick Giwner is reporting that Morrill will be allowed back at PcD on May 1.

Have to think that the punishment had to do with some sort of bad behavior not related to race fixing, if they are letting him back in. And if they are waiting a month rather than reinstating him immediately, then they are telling us that the reinstatement isn't because Pocono feels like they made a mistake in the first place.

I have a very hard time believing Morrill when he says he has no idea what this is all about.

Big deal. I'm pretty sure the NYSS circuit starts up in May. After that, Morrill won't be available much at Pocono.