NE vs Denver

[cj's dad]

So far the "smart" money is on NE-- Really?

[Stillriledup]

You don't get Belichick and Brady as dog too often, so people got a little crazy.

[pandy]

On paper Denver is a better team but throughout the Belichick era the Patriots consistently beat teams that have more talent on the field. However, I'm picking Denver. Interesting match up. Belichick likes to try to take away a team's strength. In the earlier game he put everyone back in pass coverage and the Broncos ran for a ton of yards. I think Moreno had over 220 yards himself. The Broncos will have no excuses here. They have a much better offense and equally good if not better defense.

[burnsy]

Denver is my best bet this week. I thought the line would be 6 to 6 1/2. New England should be the "dog" here...only a fool would make them the fave. Denver is just better this year but they have periods in these games where they seem to "sleep walk" and make mistakes...last weeks game should of been a blow out but San Diego hung around because Denver failed to "seal it." They did the same thing against New England and lost in ot up there. NE has the discipline edge going for them but Denver could blow them out if they execute for 4 quarters. They just seem to be the best in the AFC this year and this is a low, home game spread for them. I disagree, the prudent money is on Denver with a 4 to 4 1/2 spread.......the other money is what helps the spread stay artificially low.

[wiffleball whizz]

Agree With burnsey........the real line is around 6 but they public sees Brady and they bet but yet the line has only gone up.....

I look at the pats as a horse that's 8/5 from the rail with best jockey trainer etc etc and yet is 6/1........pats are stone dead from a betting standpoint

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by wiffleball whizz

Agree With burnsey........the real line is around 6 but they public sees Brady and they bet but yet the line has only gone up.....

I look at the pats as a horse that's 8/5 from the rail with best jockey trainer etc etc and yet is 6/1........pats are stone dead from a betting standpoint

Yeah, I saw that. Some places its up to 5 and 5 1/2...which tells me some BIG money is coming in on Denver. But I think if Denver plays their game they can win by a TD at least.

[lamboguy]

The offensive line for the Pats looked as good as you could last week against the Colts. the problem with that is i really don't know the strength of the Colts defense. the Colts came into the Pats game the winner of a shootout the prior week.

the whole season, i never saw that great an offensive line until the Colts game. the question comes down to how good it really is today, a slow scoring team like they had against the Colts will be tough for the Bronco's to overcome.

my bet was Bronco's minus 4. at 6 i would pass.

[Robert Goren]

It is all about whether NE can mount a pass rush. If they can't, it could brutal. Den has lost its LT a few weeks ago and it has slowed them a bit. Too many injuries on the NE defense has probably ruin any chance they had. Manning just has too many good receivers.

[pandy]

In their 34-31 come from behind win, the Patriots sacked Manning twice. Brady was sacked 3 times. But Manning only threw for 132 yards because the Patriots dropped 8 in coverage a lot, so Manning handed off. Broncos ran for 280 yards.

Belichick wanted Manning to hand off, figuring if the greatest passer of all time is not throwing the ball it's a good thing. So Manning should not be sacked much in this game, unless Belichick changes his game plan. You can't really blitz Manning, his release is too quick and he reads it too well.

[garyscpa]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

It is all about whether NE can mount a pass rush. If they can't, it could brutal. Den has lost its LT a few weeks ago and it has slowed them a bit. Too many injuries on the NE defense has probably ruin any chance they had. Manning just has too many good receivers.

Clady was injured in week 2 vs the NYG.

[RaceBookJoe]

My brother-in-law is the Oline coach for the Broncos, but I don't have any inside info...sorry.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by pandy

In their 34-31 come from behind win, the Patriots sacked Manning twice. Brady was sacked 3 times. But Manning only threw for 132 yards because the Patriots dropped 8 in coverage a lot, so Manning handed off. Broncos ran for 280 yards.

Belichick wanted Manning to hand off, figuring if the greatest passer of all time is not throwing the ball it's a good thing. So Manning should not be sacked much in this game, unless Belichick changes his game plan. You can't really blitz Manning, his release is too quick and he reads it too well.

I think people are forgetting about the weather that night too. it was wet, cold and windy. There were numerous fumbles on both sides...the first half most of them bounced to Denver,,,,the second half they went to NE. That was a strange game. BOTH teams ran last week but San Diego could not really run at all against Denver. By the time they adjusted it was too late. If Denver stops the run, it puts NE in a bad place because they have been depending on it. Denver ran their asses off last game vs NE so they better stop Denver. Then Manning does the same act he pulled last week. They run the "no huddle" and don't snap until the play clock is down...caught SD on like 5 offsides, but more importantly they hold the ball for 6 or 7 minutes...Brady can't get you if you have the ball. I hope Fox and Peyton stick to this..it will work again this week. Unless they fall behind. If it goes this way, the under is probably good again too. I don't bet overs and unders though.

[pandy]

Yes, I think there were 11 fumbles in that strange game. Personally, I think Denver should put a lot of guys on the line and force Brady to pass. As good as he is, he has the weakest crop of receivers he's ever had.

[Valuist]

The net yards per play differential (O vs D) is giant between these two teams:

Denver +1.0
New England +0.0

New England is going to need a special teams TD or defensive TD if they are going to have a shot.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Valuist

The net yards per play differential (O vs D) is giant between these two teams:

Denver +1.0
New England +0.0

New England is going to need a special teams TD or defensive TD if they are going to have a shot.

Denver is going to need to stop the Pats running game if they're going to have a shot.
Ground and pound behind that top notch O line, keep the ball out of Manning's hands as much as possible.
The game plan is simple and obvious...and I think the Pats win this game.
Peyton makes postseason mistakes - Brady doesn't