Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 12-27-2013, 04:47 AM   #1
Thebigguy
Veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 467
The Admiral

Santa Anita Race 3 today. To me, he has the feel of a true Derby type horse. Really hoping that he puts it together today. As for betting, its a small field. But if he is a comparable price to the NY shipper then I believe he is worth betting. He feels like a much more likely winner to me at very similar ML odds.
Thebigguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2013, 12:22 PM   #2
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
That is a really good race, I can make a case for 1-4. That race Cool Samurai comes out of is salty as well.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2013, 12:36 PM   #3
GaryG
Unreconstructed
 
GaryG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,646
The Admiral will be hammered down to 3-5 or so. I like Cool Samurai quite a bit and the price will be right.
__________________
Deo Vindice
GaryG is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2013, 04:32 PM   #4
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
not the fastest works for the Admiral given the trainer preferences.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2013, 04:38 PM   #5
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
tough beat for the Admiral considering the pace duel, but he still had a chance to win if he was head and shoulders better than these.

Cool Samurai had a dream trip, but on the bright side, was much more professional today.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2013, 08:02 PM   #6
Thebigguy
Veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
tough beat for the Admiral considering the pace duel, but he still had a chance to win if he was head and shoulders better than these.

Cool Samurai had a dream trip, but on the bright side, was much more professional today.

I expected more out of him today. Im sure he will be OK, the top 2 will be fine going forward.
Thebigguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2013, 08:11 PM   #7
horses4courses
Registered User
 
horses4courses's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
tough beat for the Admiral considering the pace duel, but he still had a chance to win if he was head and shoulders better than these.

Cool Samurai had a dream trip, but on the bright side, was much more professional today.
How can you say the winner had an ideal trip?

He would have won easier had the pace for 6 furlongs been quicker.
They went a fifth quicker for three quarters in the MCL 8th race.

I believe that the winner has at least as bright a future as the runner-up.
Probably even more so......
horses4courses is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2013, 08:31 PM   #8
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
How can you say the winner had an ideal trip?

He would have won easier had the pace for 6 furlongs been quicker.
They went a fifth quicker for three quarters in the MCL 8th race.

I believe that the winner has at least as bright a future as the runner-up.
Probably even more so......

You could be right.

I thought the winner had a dream trip today. The 1 unexpectedly broke running and what was going to be an easy lead turned into a little bit of a grind out of the gate until Talamo ceded the lead.

The two leaders were pretty far in front of the others, whether or not they were ultra quick compared to other races.

Cool Samurai ran a stylish race, but he also moved up with the flow of the race.

I'm not betting derby futures on either one, but they are both solid horses.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2013, 09:38 PM   #9
Stillriledup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thebigguy
Santa Anita Race 3 today. To me, he has the feel of a true Derby type horse. Really hoping that he puts it together today. As for betting, its a small field. But if he is a comparable price to the NY shipper then I believe he is worth betting. He feels like a much more likely winner to me at very similar ML odds.
Not to be critical of your post, but does this horse really have a true "routers gait"? Also, out of a Saratoga Six mare, doesnt scream mile and a quarter. Does that bother you at all?
Stillriledup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-27-2013, 11:52 PM   #10
Thebigguy
Veteran
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Not to be critical of your post, but does this horse really have a true "routers gait"? Also, out of a Saratoga Six mare, doesnt scream mile and a quarter. Does that bother you at all?
I dont think you're being critical, not at all.
After todays race it bothers me. Duel or no duel at one point at the top of the stretch it felt like he could run off. He just could not. Distance limitations seem very possible. I think he is talented regardless though.
Thebigguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-28-2013, 10:40 AM   #11
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
When horses open up on the rest of the field like that, it's typically a sign of a fast pace. But there was very little speed in that race, both the leaders finished OK late, and the fractions weren't particularly fast relative to the final time . So I'm going to guess that despite appearances, it was a pretty neutral setup. Had Icy Ground not also made up a lot of ground, I'd actually lean towards Cool Samurai running especially well. But I'll stick with neutral.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-28-2013, 01:45 PM   #12
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
The final number was fairly strong from CJ, not sure of the pace. Wicked Strong who beat Cool Samraui is a nice horse and he was right with him so I think that was a good maiden setup or not.

Maybe a good call on The Admiral distance, he ran like a sprinter in that first race tracking a solid pace and making a run, he just was a bit flat in comparison.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-17-2014, 06:30 PM   #13
Stillriledup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
Admiral racing in a few mins at SA.
Stillriledup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-17-2014, 08:31 PM   #14
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Admiral racing in a few mins at SA.
That was ugly, for both him and the Baffert 1st timer that was favored.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-17-2014, 10:45 PM   #15
Stillriledup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
That was ugly, for both him and the Baffert 1st timer that was favored.
yes, rough day for both.
Stillriledup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:52 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.