A Stock Market Ideer

[badcompany]

One of the most profitable stocks in my portfolio has been Regeneron Pharm (regn). That said, it's been a bumpy ride, as the pullbacks have been sharp. Had I not gotten in early, and had a wide stop, I certainly would've been shaken out.

The interesting thing about this stock is that, for the past six months, whenever it has a sharp move, one way or the other, the market shortly follows in the same direction. In other words, the stock has been foreshadowing the market.

The stock recently bottomed at ~225, started sneaking up to 240, and today it shot up 7% to 260.

If the trend persists, the rest of the market should soon follow. So, a short term SPY trade could be profitable.

As I said, it's just an ideer.

[iceknight]

Good call..

[badcompany]

Yeah, so far, so good. Not a done deal,yet, but it's always nice to get off to a good start.

[hugh]

Maker of "Linzess" which isn't well known but has blockbuster potential...
"The company'’s lead product candidate, linaclotide, a guanylate cyclase type-C agonist for irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C) and chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC) gastrointestinal disorders under the LINZESS name in the United States and Constella name in the European Union."

Ironwood has a solid base at 10.When people realize how cheap this company is and what a miracle Linzess is for so many the price will sky rocket. I'm not talking about a doubler.. thinking 5 even 6 bags. Linzess (linaclotide) is about to go global.. expanding into Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and China, including Hong Kong and Macau.
Global blockbuster.
Linzess is too new on the market for media buzz to become fierce... Still too new for most insurance companies to cover it.
Haven't been this excited about a biotech in years.

[badcompany]

Okay, a little 2 week update. At the time of the call, SPY-164, REGN-260.

Today, SPY-172.8 REGN-307.

If anyone made the trade, I'm using the 10 day sma as a trailing stop.

[PaceAdvantage]

Good call man...

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Good call man...

Thanks, Mike.

That REGN stock is a monster but it's very volatile. In order to catch that last move up, I had to sit through a down move from ~280 to ~225.

[badcompany]

Okay, same deal. The stock had a run up to 320 and retraced downward to its previous base and stayed there for awhile, almost certainly shaking out many Johnny Come Latelys. At the time of this post. The stock is up 10% on the day.

If the pattern holds, the entire S&P should have a nice upward run.

I'm waiting until SPY is 1% above the lower of the 6 & 12sma. Then, it's on like Grey Poupon.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by badcompany

Okay, same deal. The stock had a run up to 320 and retraced downward to its previous base and stayed there for awhile, almost certainly shaking out many Johnny Come Latelys. At the time of this post. The stock is up 10% on the day.

If the pattern holds, the entire S&P should have a nice upward run.

I'm waiting until SPY is 1% above the lower of the 6 & 12sma. Then, it's on like Grey Poupon.

You're using a ONE biotech stock to predict future movements in the S&P 500? Or for a biotech index of some type???

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

You're using a ONE biotech stock to predict future movements in the S&P 500? Or for a biotech index of some type???

The whole s&p.

We're talking about a short term move, 5%.

The theory is that this stock has been under accumulation and the the big up move indicates it's time for distribution, not just for this stock, but for all stocks. Stocks tend to exhibit herd behavior. So, the performance of one stock can be an indicator of the direction of the market as a whole.

You seem to be a fundamental guy. So, this might not be your thing.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by badcompany

The whole s&p.

We're talking about a short term move, 5%.

The theory is that this stock has been under accumulation and the the big up move indicates it's time for distribution, not just for this stock, but for all stocks. Stocks tend to exhibit herd behavior. So, the performance of one stock can be an indicator of the direction of the market as a whole.

You seem to be a fundamental guy. So, this might not be your thing.

I like to use charts (and technical analysis like accum/disti), too, but your fundamental point is correct. At REGN, there was very positive news after the close yesterday and they're at JPM (in San Fran) on Thursday, so I just don't see causality there.

[Magister Ludi]

Originally Posted by badcompany

In other words, the stock has been foreshadowing the market.

Correlation does not imply causation. Do you know of a compelling reason why REGN would be a leading indicator of SPY?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Correlation does not imply causation. Do you know of a compelling reason why REGN would be a leading indicator of SPY?

exactly

[badcompany]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Correlation does not imply causation. Do you know of a compelling reason why REGN would be a leading indicator of SPY?

Some stocks take longer to distribute than others, and, therefore need to make highs sooner.

For a detailed look into the inner workings of the stock market, I would suggest reading Richard Ney's books, all written in the 1970's but still relevant today.

On that note, I'm done explaining. It's an idea. If you don't like it for one reason or another, no one is forcing you to do anything.

That said if you're gonna crap all over it, how about sharing one of your own brilliant insights?

[RaceBookJoe]

Great call BadCompany

The bio/pharma sector has been hot, ICPT has been insane the past 3-4 trading sessions. TEVA had a really nice move too. Solars have made big moves both ways also, the solar etf TAN is something to look at if you just want to stop at the sector and not drill down to the best stocks there.