Horses winning off LTM

[Ray2000]

wiffle

I'll put this up as a new thread as it may gather some replies and I don't want to hijack LK.

(We got him posting again and don't want to upset the cart )

For the 1st half of 2013..
After getting rid of Qualifiers, DNFs, I have 14,512 Winners of 105,340 starters who had a previous LTM (no maidens). Of these 3031 won their next start. 20.9%

For those winners who set a new (or equaled) their LTM there were 2991 starters and 653 won the next race, 21.8% Almost the same.

This is probably biased by young horses moving up the ranks so I think you're correct when considering older raceway stock who tend to bounce of the effort. The sample size gets pretty small though on older horses with new LTMs

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

wiffle

I'll put this up as a new thread as it may gather some replies and I don't want to hijack LK.

(We got him posting again and don't want to upset the cart )

For the 1st half of 2013..
After getting rid of Qualifiers, DNFs, I have 14,512 Winners of 105,340 starters who had a previous LTM (no maidens). Of these 3031 won their next start. 20.9%

For those winners who set a new (or equaled) their LTM there were 2991 starters and 653 won the next race, 21.8% Almost the same.

This is probably biased by young horses moving up the ranks so I think you're correct when considering older raceway stock who tend to bounce of the effort. The sample size gets pretty small though on older horses with new LTMs

Boggles the mind where you come up with these numbers!!!!!! your the man!!

So basically 1 in 5 win off a LTM.......interesting.....this will be the classic example next Saturday in the haughton final......a horse off a world record/LTM and in the detention barn so this will be as true a test as you can get....

The meadowland next Saturday is the place to be and I'm not a fan of mile harness....foiled again is going for harness immortality IMO....

You know I came to this forum a few months ago thinking I had all the answers at age 32 and there isn't anything anybody can tell me that I don't already know then I run into your posts it's just takes handicapping to the next level......the data and info you have at your disposal is just awesome....

I gotta go back and read this pip thread maybe after the 364th time I'll understand it....

But seeing these horses win at a 20 percent clip after LTM is making me salivate over betting against warawee next week!!!

Thanks for the fast thread on this!!!!

9 hours till raceway Pocono balmoral and ocean I can't wait for later on!!

[am1947]

Ray,

I would suspect that the win prices might be low also as they seem likely to be overbet in their next start.

AM

[pandy]

Back in the wood bike days I don't think standardbreds bounced as much as they do now but your stats back up some of the stuff I've written in my columns about horses bouncing off fast wins in modern harness racing, especially new tops. (although a lot depends on the odds, if a horse is going off at a attractive price it may be a good bet but usually the price is short)

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

wiffle

I'll put this up as a new thread as it may gather some replies and I don't want to hijack LK.

(We got him posting again and don't want to upset the cart )


This is probably biased by young horses moving up the ranks so I think you're correct when considering older raceway stock who tend to bounce of the effort. The sample size gets pretty small though on older horses with new LTMs

Thx Ray for you stats and your hijack prevention admonition...haha...

I haven't got to that part, of using a PIP as a marker for a possible bounce, yet....I will get to it before too long...In the other thread, of course....

But, many horses that have a big breakout (BO) in a PIP, one that they have never earned before, can, and many times DO BOUNCE as a result of that swift PIP....It is hard to tell sometimes, and one must do a little more thinking about what the true Ability of any given horse may be, in regards to what PIP he ran and what his chances of staying sound may be coming out of that Big PIP..

I mean every single horse that is racing, or has raced, has had that "Golden Moment Day", which is the day that they took their Lifetime Mark.....Sometimes they were just plain lucky, or perhaps they were in just the right place at the right time, but the strongest thing, are the ones who truly earned that "LTM".....Usually if the PIP is only mildly bigger than the ones that they are used to running, then most likely they will come out of that LTM pretty OK, and will race well in their subsequent start, but all too often, the new LTM will injure many a horse if the PIP was way above their Ability-Limit, which every single horse, trainer, and especially the driver must contend with in each and every race....