Foal crop shortage

[jdhanover]

A comment in another thread by Mountainman about the foal shortage prompted me to look up the stats

http://www.jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp?section=2

Not a pretty picture. Fields (already too small) will shrink further I suspect, though a few tracks will go under lowering the number of races. As the 5+ year olds retire there aren't enough young horses coming up. This, in and of itself, may lead to fewer races/race days.

[Charli125]

Originally Posted by jdhanover

A comment in another thread by Mountainman about the foal shortage prompted me to look up the stats

http://www.jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp?section=2

Not a pretty picture. Fields (already too small) will shrink further I suspect, though a few tracks will go under lowering the number of races. As the 5+ year olds retire there aren't enough young horses coming up. This, in and of itself, may lead to fewer races/race days.

I conclude from those numbers that we need fewer tracks running fewer races. For a while we had way too many races and thus way too many horses. This is simply a market attempting to correct itself.

[Al Gobbi]

Presque Isle only managed to get four runners in the box for a $14k maiden claimer next Tuesday.

[Capper Al]

The casinos killed racing in Michigan. I'd guess the farms were lost with the tracks. Michigan should have done something to protect all the jobs lost in the racing business. The casinos want simulcast rights and the tracks want to add slots that the casinos don't want to give up the monopoly on.

[Shemp Howard]

The attendence Thursday night at PI was 233; on track handle less than the cash I keep around the house. Total handle $50K a race. Purses were over 30% of the handle.

Why should the taxpayers continue to subsidize a business/sport/wagering model the public clearly has no appetite for?

Do we really need $3.00 winners in 4 horse fields every other race ??

[Robert Goren]

I wish the tracks spent as much time worrying about the bettor shortage as they did the horse shortage. I think if they'd solve the bettor shortage, the shortage would take care of itself. Even a blind man can see that racino business model has been as disaster for the horse racing industry, yet they keep building more of them.

[Capper Al]

Bettor shortage is the overall problem. Michigan tracks didn't do a good job here also. I believe Michigan has enough interest in horse racing. But, in our case, the casinos put it to our dysfunctional racing industry and got away with it.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I wish the tracks spent as much time worrying about the bettor shortage as they did the horse shortage. I think if they'd solve the bettor shortage, the shortage would take care of itself. Even a blind man can see that racino business model has been as disaster for the horse racing industry, yet they keep building more of them.

It's not just about bettor shortage, it's also about owner shortage. There's not much incentive to own race horses. Lose money on increasingly brittle animals that only average six starts per year, racing in front of mostly empty grandstands. What's the hook in that?

[Shemp Howard]

Things have gotten so bad at Penn National the racing secretary had to beg the Renpher Stable to enter 5 of its losers in order to fill its races next Wednesday.

When a track has to beg a losing stable that is 3-70 this year to enter you know things have hit rock bottom.

Would anyone,except the loser stables that make ends meet off the 8% they get paid for running 4th, seriously miss Penn National if it closed up shop tomorrow????

[DeltaLover]

In my opinion the foal shortage was not only expected but should also have been desired by any horse bettor as a step towards the right direction.

Hopefully this shortage will eventually force most of the small race tracks to go out of business, strengthening the larger ones, something that will create better quality and of course much larger betting pools.

Less racing not only means larger pools. it also makes regulation and monitoring much easier due to the smaller sample size and to the increased visibility of each event.

As a bettor I have no sympathy for the 'pros' who are going to need to find another job since this will be the result of their selfish and narrow minded approach that lasted many years.

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by Charli125

This is simply a market attempting to correct itself.

This - and also consider how distorted the market is because of the racino/slots, etc. subsidies. This market needs to find its own level. The economics of this sport are hopelessly upside-down for most breeders and owners.

And that holds aside us bettors who are the sheep to be sheared.

[Al Gobbi]

There are already been a few tracks (Bay Meadows, Windsor and soon Hollywood) that have closed down. I would guess that if Suffolk is not chosen as the Boston area casino site it will also be finished too.

The sooner the states that have casinos seriously reduce the racing payments or eliminate them completely those tracks will follow suit.

[forced89]

Declining foal crops explain increasing prices at the sales. Just look at the increase in the recent Timonium 2 YO in Training Sale. Prices way up and buybacks way down.

[duncan04]

Yeah closing some of the smaller tracks and taking live racing from people. That will help the sport.

[jdhanover]

If I am not mistaken the foal shortage is in large part due to Reproductive Mare Syndrome that hit a few years ago...plus the economy.

I suspect this will push the industry towards consolidation. May be a good thing in the long run though I like the days with lots of tracks/races (if the fields are at least reasonable)