 |
05-02-2013, 10:16 PM
|
#1
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 697
|
Thoughts on Black Onyx
He is 50-1 on the Morning Line, but he actually isn't bad.
He hasn't run a 100 figure yet, but his last two outs have been vs. increasingly better opponents, and he still managed a 93 and a 96. That 96 was achieved in the Spiral, where he had to deal with a wide trip. Kelly Breen doesn't do the best with layoff horses, so it is acceptable that he finished 4th in an OC75k/n1x to kick off his 3 year old career. Although it looks like he is peaking at the right time, it seems he has struggled on the dirt.
Both of his maiden efforts came out of races that were moved from the turf to the dirt, so he essentially was racing turf horses on dirt. Still, he lost his first by 6 lengths and only won his second by 2. He faced 10 in his first OC75k/n1x on thedirt, and he finished a distant fourth. The very game race that he ran on turf obviously perked him up, which he followed up with his latest win on the all weather track.
So, what do you guys think? Has he proven himself mediocre on the dirt? Was he just not as in form at the start of his 3 year old campaign? If the spiral would have been on dirt, would he still have delivered a top performance?
Last edited by cordep17; 05-02-2013 at 10:17 PM.
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 02:12 AM
|
#2
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Kirkland, Washington
Posts: 44
|
I love your enthusiasm!
You remind me of Ken Rudulph touting Giacomo on TVG in 2005 (has it really been that long?) I made the HUGE mistake of changing channels to the bigger network, thinking they would have "better" information.
I would be a fool to try to "talk you off" this one.
The 3 race speed rating pattern is very positive.
Naysayers will point to the 1 hole.
Son of Rock Hard Ten may be "rollin' late."
Since Breen, could be any kind.
|
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 02:31 AM
|
#3
|
|
PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,646
|
He'll probably finish in the top half of the field...but I don't see much to warrant him being a top 3 or 4 horse...even given his best run...
|
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 08:25 AM
|
#4
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 2,148
|
extreme toss.
|
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 09:07 AM
|
#5
|
|
Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
|
He would be more suited for The Belmont.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
|
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 09:36 AM
|
#6
|
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
|
He drew the 1 hole. I actually think he will handle getting over next to the rail, and being in close quarters better than most, but he isn't a speed horse and he figures to be placed right in the the worst of the traffic and maybe some kickback.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 09:49 AM
|
#7
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
|
Being overmatched and drawing the dreaded 1 hole is no way to go through life. No chance to even hit the board.
|
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 09:52 AM
|
#8
|
|
Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
He drew the 1 hole. I actually think he will handle getting over next to the rail, and being in close quarters better than most, but he isn't a speed horse and he figures to be placed right in the the worst of the traffic and maybe some kickback.
|
That's the thing. You notice in his 3 wins there is no dirt on him (turf at GP, 3-wide at Aqueduct, 5-wide at Turfway). So he races wide to avoid dirt, even at the cost of losing ground. If you look at his losses, there is dirt on him. And it's supposed to rain Saturday? Oh boy....
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
|
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 12:38 PM
|
#9
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Kirkland, Washington
Posts: 44
|
We'll never know.
|
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 01:03 PM
|
#10
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
|
The connections were overcome by a bout of sanity. Rare during Derby time.
|
|
|
|
|
05-03-2013, 01:35 PM
|
#11
|
|
Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
|
This thread is now moot.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
