MLB Against the Public Style

[hugh]

Doing the same thing for MLB... Did amazing with College Ball this Year and hope to keep it going...
Sports are like the stock market. There is value being on one side of the line.
Like any marketplace, a buyer and seller agree on a price - in this case a "point spread". But knowing the "point spread" is only half the picture. Understanding the forces affecting the "point spread' movement (the volume of bets, percentage of bets on the home team and the percentage of bets on the away team) is essential in determining the true value of any "point spread"

[hugh]

With Baseball I like going against the big name pitchers. That's usually where the value is... I'll keep updated record/unit totals. looking forward to the season!
Oakland -110 ... getting only 23% of public money
Cincy -111 ... 33%
Minny +166 .... 17%
Enjoy the Season!!!

[Valuist]

I agree that the big name pitchers are usually overbet. Many times, they don't go longer than 6 innings anyways. Bullpens are so important and I think the public basically just bets on the starting pitchers.

[redshift1]

Today Cain and Kershaw looked worth every bit the 340 million their being paid. In the long run though, those megabuck contracts usually end up underwater by the last year of the contract.


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[Valuist]

Originally Posted by redshift1

Today Cain and Kershaw looked worth every bit the 340 million their being paid. In the long run though, those megabuck contracts usually end up underwater by the last year of the contract.


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Sabathia certainly didn't look worth the money yesterday. Same with Hamels.

[hugh]

Rough start to the season but that's the way it goes sometimes. A big 0-3 goose egg.
Going to do better today:
Houston +156 ... 23%
Arizona -115 ... 28%

[hugh]

Got a couple of smart money movers today.. line moves that make absolutely no sense.
Minny +116 (22%)
Milwalkee -110 (20%)
Giants have won 15 in a row with Zito on the mound so them being a DOG today makes no sense. Trap city.. smart money is al over this one.

[Valuist]

Hugh-

Do you ever play run lines? I like taking the dog and the 1.5 runs IF: the dog is the road team and guaranteed 9 at-bats, and secondly, the total has to be less than 8. In any low totalled game, the more likely it will be decided by 1 run.

[wiffleball whizz]

One of the best baseball bettors of all time baseball mike Salem who was best friends with stu unger used to play cards at the casino I worked at and he knew I bet baseball he told be after the all star game if you bet any dog +150 or more that system worked the last 17 years.....

Cliff notes: flat bet every dog +150 or more after all star break!!!

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by wiffleball whizz

One of the best baseball bettors of all time baseball mike Salem who was best friends with stu unger used to play cards at the casino I worked at and he knew I bet baseball he told be after the all star game if you bet any dog +150 or more that system worked the last 17 years.....

Cliff notes: flat bet every dog +150 or more after all star break!!!

I will have to check that out. It does make some sense; lines are based largely on the year to date results; if a team has overperformed over the 1st half, they likely will experience some regression to the mean. And vica versa with those who've underperformed.

[hugh]

I really don't have much luck betting run lines but your "system" sounds pretty solid to me. Baseball is one of the hardest sports to bet... I miss my football and ncaabb. This year I'm trying not to chase.. just recognizing the smart money moves and going that way. Last night for instance... The Giants are "my team" but I had to go the other way... going to go with my head not with my heart.

[hugh]

Smart Money Against the Public plays
----------------------------------------------
Miami +131 .... 12%
Minny +111 .... 25%
These are Against the Public plays with smart money...
The miami line went from +149 ---> +131 ...
Minny +119 ---> 111

[hugh]

Smart Money Against the Public plays for 4/20/13----------
-----------------------------------------------------
NYM... Getting only 19% of the money but line is getting pumped up. Smart money all over the Mets moving them from +134->+128
San Diego... only taking 31% of the $$$.. line moving from +156-->+141 ... Big smart money play.
Minny... 21%... +156-->+150
Seattle... 26% .... +167 ---> +151
-------------------------------------------------
So we have a bunch of them today. Good luck.

[hugh]

A good day for Smart Money ATP plays after a bad yesterday...
-----------------------------------------------------
PIT... 17% (of public money).... +163--->+149
SD..... 30% ... +142---> +120
TB... 21%.... -108 ----> +104
HOU ... 27% ... +101---> -105
NYM ...22% .... +136----> +122
---------------------------------------------------------
Baseball is hard to win but this smart money system is the best I know of.

[hugh]

Got a couple of them today....
Oakland....... 32%.... +152---->+137
LAA.... 23%....... +143---->+134 (even I don't get this one but I'll be on it just the same)
:T hmbUp: