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03-22-2013, 03:30 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,215
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Mr. Trifecta's Maywood Park Picks 3/22/13
Trying the odds line again. Mr. Trifecta Morning Line is TML. Let's see how it goes tonight!
R1: #1-Five Cougars A-9/5 TML......Draws the rail against very familiar company. Should be on the lead and going for the wire. Should have enough in the tank to get there.
Contenders:
#6-Colefederate-5/2 TML
#7-Nightinthebox-5/2 TML
R2: #3-Shady Maple Bullet-6/5 TML......Much easier company then last time and should be closing from far back. Likes to go 3-4 wide at the 3q and make his one big late move. Mr. Trifecta's Lock of the Night!
Contenders:
#5-Bluebird Muffler-5/1 TML
#7-Mr Prospect-15/1 TML
R3: #4-RJ's Day-6/1 TML......Scratched sick last time. Gets extra rest and 2nd time lasix. Showed some life during first time lasix and should improve on that. Could fire at a big price. Mr. Trifecta's Longshot of the Night!
Contenders:
#8-American Portrait-2/1 TML
#6-Ima Fancy King-6/1 TML
R4: #2-Body Guard-3/5 TML......Big drop in class again. Has won at much tougher levels, in for the money. Should trounce this company.
Contenders:
#1-BC's Bad Cat-6/1 TML
#7-Drive 'Em Cowb0y-6/1 TML
R5: Triggerhappy Hero-5/2 TML......Ships back over from Balmoral. Has cashed here before. Likes to show early speed and sit just a length or two off the leader. Should get some live cover in the 8 here. Possible pocket trip.
Contenders:
#5-Gypsy Leather-3/1 TML
#8-Memory King-9/2 TML
R6: #3-Catch The Rapids-2/1 TML......Perfect pocket trip last time out. Should get it again following live cover in the 1. Repeat.
Contenders:
#6-Another Beauty-3/1 TML
#1-Fox Valley Ivan-3/1 TML
R7: #3-Dagkar-4/1 TML......Was very game last time out. 3rd off the ship and should get some nice live cover behind the 1 here. Need to save a little something for the stretch as it will be hotly contested.
Contenders:
#1-Alequash Hotspur-5/2 TML
#8-Huggy Bear-4/1 TML
R8: #4-Cams Princess Wave-3/1 TML......Plenty of contenders in this race. Paced against a very fast group last time. Draws a little easier and the speed will be to the outside. Needs a clean trip, but up front pace could burn themselves out and leave this one to close down the stretch.
Contenders:
#6-Blazing Fury-3/1 TML
#8-Big Zipper-3/1 TML
R9: #5-Turn It Up Loud-6/1 TML......Wide open race here. Leonard has been driving great as of late. Got a solid few weeks on a layoff and should come fresh for this one. Should be making a strong 3Q move. Live cover and clean trip will help greatly.
Contenders:
#6-Raging Cam-3/1 TML
#7-NJ's Big Deal-7/2 TML
R10: Dune In Red-6/1 TML......Starting her 3 year old campaign. Very impressive in 2 year old stakes when here on a good track. Should do much better with another year under her belt and on a fast track. Widger is in the sulky. Likes to be upfront and on the lead. Worth the shot.
Contenders:
#2-Dislocated-5/2 TML
#1-Odds On Dominica-7/1 TML
R11: #3-Mysital MJ-4/1 TML......Driver change to Oosting is big here. Last time with Oosting aboard, did get up in time at this level. Gets a good post to boot and should fetch a price. Pick 4: 1,3,5,7,8 w 3,8 w 5 w 1,5 - $20
Contenders:
#7-Waiting and Hoping-4/1 TML
#8-Park Lane Heather-9/1 TML
R12: #8-Bay Fishen Doc-4/1 TML......Closed very well in the last two. Not a fan of the outside draw but did win from the 7 hole against good company two back. Needs a fast pace upfront and should get it. Mr. Trifecta's Pick of the Night!
Contenders:
#3-Bubs Desire-6/1 TML
#7-Sameasiteverwas-6/1 TML
R13: #5-I Scoot Sam-4-5 TML......Lost to Western Slammer who later beat St. Elmo Hero soundly. Faced much tougher and gets a much weaker company here. Should throttle this company.
Contenders:
#1-Stylish Rocket-9/2 TML
#2-Rejoiceandbeglad-9/2 TML
R14: #1-Prime Escape-4/1 TML......Scratched last time out. Draws a good rail post here. Extra rest and did nearly wire the field last time out. Gets Roberts aboard this time and expect him to be on the lead.
Contenders:
#5-Polar Bear-3/1 TML
#4-Bodandy Andy-6/1 TML
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03-23-2013, 12:11 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,215
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Mr. Trifecta's Pick of the Night scores at 15-1!
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03-23-2013, 01:57 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,215
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Rough night tonight beyond the Pick of the Night. Non-bets are when the top choice did not meet the odds line.
R1: 1,7,8 Win $3.00....$2.20....$2.10 $1 Exacta box 1,6,7......$5.00 Non-bet
R2: Scratched Non-bet
R3: Out Non-Bet
R4: 2,1,4 Win $2.20....$2.10....$2.10 $1 Exacta box 2,1......$2.50 Non-Bet
R5: Out Non-Bet
R6: 3,1,9 Win $4.80....$2.80....$2.40 $1 Exacta box 3,6,1......$5.30 Non-Bet
R7: Out
R8: Out Non-Bet
R9: Out
R10: Out
R11: Out Non-Bet
R12: 8,2,3 Win $32.80....$12.40....$4.20
R13: 5,4,1 Win $2.60....$2.20....$2.10 Non-bet
R14: Out
Bet on every race: Win Rate 36%, Board Hit 36%, Wagered $182, Returned $52.90, ROI -71%
Odds line only: Win Rate 20%, Board Hit 20%, Wagered $70, Returned $32.80, ROI -53%
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03-23-2013, 05:13 AM
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#4
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Mr T, FWIW
When I was a young man, I tried making a Fair Odds Line Like You're doing, and never got anywhere. That's why I ended up setting a MAO (Minimum Acceptable Odds) of 3/1 on all Win Bets. Saves a lot of work and with the right ADW outfit, you can use conditional wagering.
Thanks for posting your test this way, I'll be interested in how it goes...
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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03-23-2013, 11:16 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000
Mr T, FWIW
When I was a young man, I tried making a Fair Odds Line Like You're doing, and never got anywhere. That's why I ended up setting a MAO (Minimum Acceptable Odds) of 3/1 on all Win Bets. Saves a lot of work and with the right ADW outfit, you can use conditional wagering.
Thanks for posting your test this way, I'll be interested in how it goes...
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Thanks Ray! I like your acronym! I can see the benefits of both. Firstly the time savings on MAO alone would be huge. The odds line I think benefits to those "sure thing" picks where getting say even money is a gift on the horses who should win.
I may very well do MAO, but I am going to continue testing to see what happens with the odds line. As it stands with two days of testing, you would be better off betting on the odds line then just flat out betting the race no matter what the odds.
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