deceleration

[twindouble]

I think the only way to measure deceleration is to know how much pressure was applied to the bit at different points in the race realivent to pace, including the the type of bit used, the horses senitivity to the bit along with estimating the amont of energy expended at those points in the race, (take your pick), then I would interview the jock and ask if the horse was fighing the bit using up the necessarry energy to win that cost me a ton of money.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by fastCow

The question is how much did the early fractions cost the horse. My rule of thumb is for every 1/5 of second horses go beyond their comfort zone in the opening 2 furlongs, it cost them at least double that in the stretch. Maybe more.

at many bull rings that ratio can go as high as 4:1

[Whirlaway]

a = (vf - vo)/t

where:
a - acceleration
vf - final velocity
vo - original velocity
t - time


If a horse runs 6 furlongs in :22.0 :44.6 1:10.0

First Quarter Velocity: 1320/22 = 60 feet per second
Second Quarter Velocity: 1320/22.6 = 58.41 fps
Third Quarter Velocity: 1302/25.4 =51.97

Second Quarter Acceleration: (58.41-60)/22.6 = -.07 fps²
Third Quarter Acceleration: (51.97-58.41)/25.4 = -.25 fps²

This isn't quite right becuse you're using average velocity over the quarter rather than the actual original and final velocity, but it's all you've got in horse racing unless you bring your own radar gun. I played around with this stuff some years ago and didn't find it useful. It will identify the best closer, but the best closer seldom wins.

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

asking if you QUANTIFY that deceleration in any way? i.e. ratio of 2nd call to final fraction so as to have some yardstick for comparisons.

It is relatively easy to see the speed a horse is running for each quarter. You can subtract the lead times from each other (say a 45 second half and 22 second 2f means that the time of the quarter for that race was 23 seconds. then just calculate how far back the horse you were interested in was at the half mile call (roughly, a length is 1/5th of a second, though some people use more sophisticated measurements).

So if the horse you are interested in was 2 lengths back at 2f and 1 length back at the half, he ran that quarter in 22.4 seconds (he gained one length on the pace of the race). If he went on the be beaten a head at the finish and the time of the race was 1:10. he ran the final quarter in a 24.4.

He may look like he was accelerating because he was gaining a length in the stretch, but like others have pointed out, he was de-accelerating less.

If you become comfortable making these basic calculations you have a basic understanding of understanding pace.

On the turf you can see splits like 24.0 48.0 1:12.0 and then 1:42.0. It's a little trickier but the final fraction of 2.5 furlongs is 30.0 which is around 23.2 or 23.3 for the final 2f. So you can quantify that the actually accelerated in the stretch. Or at least ran the last part of the race faster than the first 6f.

As for energy-type analysis, it is based on a simple velocity calculation: feet per second. There are so many feet in each quarter and you can use the above type of calculations to see how much time it took your horse to negotiate that distance. Then people get into the ratios with those figures.

For me that is too much work, it becomes like those awful word puzzles that hell's llibrary is full of (you are on a train going east, traveling 90 mph... ) I prefer just to glance at the fractions and know how fast the quarter was and see where the horse was relative to the pace.

[Tom]

46, you use some of the "next generation" Sartin inspired programs don't you?

Was Deceleration continued? Doc had some decel digs in a couple of programs that looked promising, but that was about the time I stopped my journey at Thoromation and K Gen. I'm talking back around Pace Launcher.
I've toyed around with the idea of creating a decel figure frommy velocity readouts, but if anything, I am a true procratinator. Any suggestions for a formula?
I was thinking F1/F2, or EP/LP, somehow combined with Factor X, which is a simplicitc decel fig.

[Binder]

Hi Tom
Yes Doc's last progam Validator 1 - 2 and a post Doc version Val 3
and Now Guy Wadsworth's (Program writer for Doc)
Speculator both have Delceration figures and in the Val series Doc tried to make a 1 final readout
called V/DC or Velocity/Deceleration which although 9it genorates many ties
it's a valuebale tool
In Speculator there is a TS = Total speed annd Decl readout that are very powerful in finding longer odds winners

Anyone who wants to see each of these programs in action should check out our Sartin Methodology Group Discussion board
V/Dc Messenger
I am very lucky to have many users of these programs that are kind enough to post there readouts and methods on their use
Hope any interesed will check us out

http://bindfold.com/forums/index.php

[shoelessjoe]

Binder, I found VDC but the link didnt work.Shoeless

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Tom

46, you use some of the "next generation" Sartin inspired programs don't you?

Was Deceleration continued?

Beat to the punch but YES,
the true speed deceleration combo is DYNAMITE in routes

[socantra]

Doc did keep working with deceleration. In the Validator series his major readout was called V/DC.

I'm always surprised at how few people mention Factor X as a deceleration figure. Its very effective, except for those horses that do a lot of their running in the second fraction. Misses them entirely.

socantra...

[Binder]

Originally Posted by shoelessjoe

Binder, I found VDC but the link didnt work.Shoeless

sorry I will try again



http://bindfold.com/forums/index.php

[Big Bill]

Originally Posted by socantra

Doc did keep working with deceleration. In the Validator series his major readout was called V/DC.

I'm always surprised at how few people mention Factor X as a deceleration figure. Its very effective, except for those horses that do a lot of their running in the second fraction. Misses them entirely.

socantra...

It sounds like from what you have said that adding turn-time to Factor X might be a good measure of deceleration. Is that what you were implying?

Big Bill

[socantra]

Originally Posted by Big Bill

It sounds like from what you have said that adding turn-time to Factor X might be a good measure of deceleration. Is that what you were implying?

Big Bill

No, not at all. I'm merely saying that Factor X is a combination of the 1st and 3rd fraction and as such is a pretty good guage of deceleration in many races. It can be a good indicator but is not always reliable

I suppose adding turn time to Factor X could possibly make a useful measure of deceleration but it doesn't seem likely enough to me to warrant the research.

I haven't really thought it through, but am inclined to think you would wind up with a fairly meaningless figure. I have been wrong many times in the past however. Test it out.

socantra...

[GR1@HTR]

Normal Deceleration on dirt should be linear...
ex:
first fraction, 2nd fraction, 3rd fraction (feet per second)
57.50, 54.00, 51,00

A horse that had a running line such as
57.50, 52.00, 51.50 most likey experienced trouble on the turn...

A horse that had a running line such as...
59.00, 57,00, 49.00 might make a good play next time out as it ran its guts out early and puked...

on turf if you have an E or P horse w/ a couple or more Quirin points that showed exceleration:
52.5, 53, 53.5 might make a good play next out...

[DJofSD]

Normal Deceleration on dirt should be linear...

I don't completely agree.

The basis of the discussion is biomechanical. What makes the horse move and how effeciently it does it. Then there's the stress factor -- call it pace pressure. And don't forget conditioning.

Taken altogether I would say these would be non-linear.

If there's a single factor that would measure deceleration, it would be quantifying lactic acid build up in the muscles. Isn't that what milkshaking is all about?

DJofSD