Florida Derby

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Pontiff. Sure, why not.

Just checked the pedigree and no apparent Argentinian blood in this one - black smoke here We shall see . . . .

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by VeryOldMan

Just checked the pedigree and no apparent Argentinian blood in this one - black smoke here We shall see . . . .

Black smoke??? Is that good or bad?

[magwell]

Cant see anybody breaking up this "match race".....Orb, Lucky and Bobby.. .

[pele polo]

Bobby to WIN.

[JustRalph]

hard to find any money in here.

Only way to make money is betting Frac Daddy and hoping he improves by 17L But I might do it. I love the works! and the big three gotta beat up on each other.......small bets with Frac on the tickets?

That Holy Bull was incredible. If those horses repeat that......... good on em!! I would love to hear more comments on that race...........

The Attfield horse is interesting as a closer. Post is bad though. he can only get on the board if he improves and the pace falls apart....... I think Attfield feels the pace might fall apart. Small ticks with him on them?

Only way I see any money in this race. Post Parade will make my decisions

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Black smoke??? Is that good or bad?

Means you need to find another horse to play

ex bx

[ArlJim78]

I think the Holy Bull is the standout race at GP this year, much more so than the Fountain of Youth. and Itsmyluckyday was the standout of the HolyBull, so I don't see anything here that turns the tables on him. I think the extra half furlong does not improve the chances of Shanghai Bobby to reverse things on Itsmyluckyday, but by the same token he has to be considered the main threat. Save for the quirky Delta Jackpot, it looks like this guy has dirt racing figured out pretty well and is a bit more talented and versatile at this moment than the rest of this field. I give him the nod tomorrow.

[PhantomOnTour]

Digging for value here but i'm not finding it - this may be one to just watch.
Only value i see is betting against Orb, the 3-1 third choice on the ML.
He's likely to go off at lower than that.

I may be nitpicking him, but he has yet to run a "complete race" imo.
In his last two he has tracked a slow pace and flown home, and sat behind a hot pace & picked them up while plodding home. He's a closer and will get his pace, but i don't think they're coming back to him this time - i will play against in the win hole - underneath only.

I think Shanghai Bobby is going to be tough, although Merit Man may be his undoing up front. He can outsprint Bobby on the stretchout and Rosie needs to be cool. Gets the rail again and it looks like he will square off with IMLD again, who should sit right next to him the whole way. Gets an inconsequential 2lb break from IMLD - Rosie's ride is everything imo.
It's these two for the win and i don't see anyone who can beat them both.

Some are mentioning the as longshot plays, but i can only see the . He ran bravely in that Gr2 off his MSW win but was very flat in his last. Working well and these 3yr olds can get good again in an instant.
I will also consider the as a bomb exotic horse.
Still eligible for an Alwn1x but is getting better. Trying the Remsen was a mistake off the MSW win. Strong closer needs a one run ride from Rajiv from off the pace....if he stalks, he's dead. But i believe in Rajiv and he will hopefully drop in out the gate and make one run.

ex: 1-3 w 5-7
tri: 1-3 w 1-3-5-6-7 w 5-7
win: 1

[Robert Fischer]

Pick of the Litter's blaze kinda looks like a question mark.

[Valuist]

The Appleton should be interesting. Race is loaded with early speed, and that works against likely favorite Silver Max. Haven't heard a lot of support for the Chilean bred Omayad, who should benefit from the fast pace. He was bet down to 9-2 in the Gr.1 Manhattan last year and has been off since that race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Valuist

The Appleton should be interesting. Race is loaded with early speed, and that works against likely favorite Silver Max. Haven't heard a lot of support for the Chilean bred Omayad, who should benefit from the fast pace. He was bet down to 9-2 in the Gr.1 Manhattan last year and has been off since that race.

I think Za Approval is ready to explode in this race.Beaux Choix the lone closer should run well too.Silver Max has some bad ass works and has a load of talent but there is pace company and it's been a lengthy layoff.I'm betting this race.

I'll only get involved with the Florida Derby if I can link the favorites to anybody with a longer price in the 13th.It doesn't look like it's there yet.

Most of the horses I want to play tomorrow will be 7/2 or less so we'll see.In the 3rd I think the 5 Finale is going to win,he's been learning to slow down and close stronger the last 3,but Pletcher will drive him down.Bombaguia might be my bet if I can get the 4-1 ML.In the Orchid(9)I do think the 7 Aigue Marine is going to get revenge on Starformer at 12 furlongs.ML says 3-1.

Good luck tommorrow!

[JustRalph]

Gotta go with a price Appleton

Cool blue red hot..........

[porchy44]

#3 "Itsmyluckyday" is my pick

No value here folks. Should be hammered at the windows based on the last two speed figures.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Digging for value here but i'm not finding it - this may be one to just watch.
Only value i see is betting against Orb, the 3-1 third choice on the ML.
He's likely to go off at lower than that.

I may be nitpicking him, but he has yet to run a "complete race" imo.
In his last two he has tracked a slow pace and flown home, and sat behind a hot pace & picked them up while plodding home. He's a closer and will get his pace, but i don't think they're coming back to him this time - i will play against in the win hole - underneath only.

I think Shanghai Bobby is going to be tough, although Merit Man may be his undoing up front. He can outsprint Bobby on the stretchout and Rosie needs to be cool. Gets the rail again and it looks like he will square off with IMLD again, who should sit right next to him the whole way. Gets an inconsequential 2lb break from IMLD - Rosie's ride is everything imo.
It's these two for the win and i don't see anyone who can beat them both.

Some are mentioning the as longshot plays, but i can only see the . He ran bravely in that Gr2 off his MSW win but was very flat in his last. Working well and these 3yr olds can get good again in an instant.
I will also consider the as a bomb exotic horse.
Still eligible for an Alwn1x but is getting better. Trying the Remsen was a mistake off the MSW win. Strong closer needs a one run ride from Rajiv from off the pace....if he stalks, he's dead. But i believe in Rajiv and he will hopefully drop in out the gate and make one run.

ex: 1-3 w 5-7
tri: 1-3 w 1-3-5-6-7 w 5-7
win: 1

I agree with you on the 7. Think he can be the bomb that crashes the exacta or tri. How often do you see a race with 3 strongly defined contenders and one of them almost always wins, but some longshot clunks up for 2nd? A horse who was never in serious win contention and probably running for 2nd money. Meanwhile the non-winners of the 3 struggle in vain in an all out attempt to win and he up spent late.