Identifying Early leaders

[Tom]

Jockey is a big part of it. I rate all jockeys by their positions at the first call for sprints and routes.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by Tom

Jockey is a big part of it.

I totally agree, especially when you get a horse/jockey matching style for the first time. For example, Gomez climbing aboard a stalker/closer for the first time or P. Val on an early type. I know, I know it's Cali. and we're boycotting!

Mike

[raybo]

Originally Posted by joeprunes

Does`nt 1/4 and half times dictate who has a chance at the top of the stretch. To me every race is differen because of that. Race shape is big for me along with pace and close. Thats what I try to handicap...TEHO

I think that if you do some research, you'll find that those horses that are on or near the lead at the 2nd call, are very vulnerable to the earlier pace.

The period between the 2nd call and the stretch call contains most of the moves that will provide the eventual winner. An analysis and comparison of 2nd call through the stretch call will give insight into which horses are going to be on or near the lead for the stretch run. Those 2nd call leaders may not be there at the stretch call, so your stretch run analysis will be of little value because you are analyzing the wrong horses' final run capabilities.

Hope that makes sense!

[Dave Schwartz]

There is a problem with using a numbers-based approach: You only get the horses that look good. There goes your potential for a high average mutuel.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

There is a problem with using a numbers-based approach: You only get the horses that look good. There goes your potential for a high average mutuel.

Agreed, a purely numbers based approach is severely lacking, however, if a player is using a numbers based approach, analyzing the 2nd call as the predictor of which horses will be in position for a viable stretch run, has been done for decades and while it may produce a desirable hit rate, for the really good handicappers, the value of horses that meet that criteria has long since diminished, to the point of severely detracting from the possibility of producing profit, long term.

One must think outside the box a bit more and look to horses that will be "in the hunt" down the stretch, which include both early type speed horses and late type runners. Individual running styles vs probable/possible pace scenarios, smoothed out with the inclusion of overall speed/ability will point one to those horses that will be in the war, not just the battles within the war. The war being the battle between the remaining early horses and the advancing late horses down the stretch.

Early horses go on to win when the race shape favored them, when it doesn't, pace collapse allows the momentum to shift towards the late horses. So, the player should know which early horses will be fighting which late horses down the stretch.

I didn't even mention the form factor, but that is a non-numbers based factor that, IMO, must be included in the solution. Can one get by without analyzing current form? Possibly, if the player ascertains which horses are the real stretch run contenders and wagers them correctly, but, as we all know the lack of wagering skill by the majority of players makes this highly unlikely.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Tom

Jockey is a big part of it. I rate all jockeys by their positions at the first call for sprints and routes.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Mike
I use New Pace Daves product for about month now.
Yes I use speed figures and pace figs from Bris pp nothing else and this clearly gives me the early horses and the late horses that are competive in any given race using his formula.
One thing I found with New Pace you want to be selective in handicapping races even after month it takes time but for me the effort is paying off.
Mac

A update on New pace since last post.
I have been handicapping races with eight horses and last two weeks Mtnr/Penn /CT and Turf Paradise with mixed results on first three using New Pace but the potenial was there on all four.
For me using New pace and finding eight horse fields non Mdn or turf Turf Paradise fitted the bill and on the west coast bonus.
My point is I am now able to pinpoint four horses per race two Early two late with confidence.
Mac

[Dave Schwartz]

Do you find that the pace figs help?

Every time I add pace figs it seems to take me off the very high-priced horses - the very horses I am trying to get.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Do you find that the pace figs help?

Every time I add pace figs it seems to take me off the very high-priced horses - the very horses I am trying to get.

Dave
To reply I used new pace on races 4-5-6-7 at Turf paradise today and only wagered on 4-6-7 . Race 5 I passed as it was to obvisous on both chalks finishing 1-2,
Race 7 was the winner today.
Mac

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Do you find that the pace figs help?

Every time I add pace figs it seems to take me off the very high-priced horses - the very horses I am trying to get.

I assume you're talking about traditional pace figures.

IMO, most pace handicappers, who use pace figures, use them to identify the early pace, then they use speed figures to get an idea of which of these early horses has the ability to finish stronger than the other early horses. Emphasis on "early".

Early pace has been preached for so long now that many feel that it's a waste of their time to do a lot of late pace analysis. They think that if a race sets up "early" then an early horse will win, and often they do, but at not so good prices, everybody sees it.

I think that it is just as important to analyze late pace also, because many times an "early" race turns out to be an "other than early" race. The use of pace figures, if they are good pace figures, can also point you towards good late horses, that can benefit from an "early" race that does not materialize, and at often very good prices.

In short, pace figures can help you get better prices, if you analyze late also, and if you think outside the box when you wager, including both early and late in your wagering, especially in the exotics, including the picks and ex, tri, super.

Win wagering should be about value anyway, so if you need value to be profitable, where is the value located, early or late?

[Dave Schwartz]

This is just a great thread! Excerpt from my newest blog post:

Finding Value with Pace Handicapping Today
by DAVE SCHWARTZ on MARCH 14, 2011
I have been following a recent thread on the Pace Advantage forum entitled Identifying Early Leaders. This most informative thread addresses a question that all pace handicappers typically begin with. Ironically, it is the focus upon this question that I believe makes it difficult to show profit from pace handicapping today. Below is a direct link to that thread: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=80692

The emphasis in pace handicapping is typically focused on the early horses. One reason for this is that it is much easier to measure the early horses than it is the late ones because you’re measuring them all from the start of the race. That is they all have a common starting point. Late horses start their runs from different positions.

More at this link
http://thehorsehandicappingauthority...capping-today/


Regard,
Dave Schwartz

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

This is just a great thread! Excerpt from my newest blog post:


More at this link
http://thehorsehandicappingauthority...capping-today/


Regard,
Dave Schwartz

Thanks for the link Dave!

Get ready for those who think they can find value in 6/5 horses.

[jeebus1083]

The standard definition of "handicapping" is to predict the winner of a race by comparing past performances and other relevant data to separate the contenders. This is passe.

I think a better definition of "handicapping" would be - the evaluation of the disadvantages a horse has that could make winning today's race more difficult.

I finally purchased NewPace last week, and I think that this methodology does a good job of evaluating the not-so-obvious. It truly is a different approach than the norm, and definitely puts you on those horses whose merits would have been thrown out the window in a conventional handicapping approach.

[raybo]

Dave, if "New Pace" ends up with a couple of early horses and a couple of late horses (the horses that aren't early horses), do you have these final contenders broken out by hit rate and average ROI?

If so, I think everyone here would be interested in seeing those stats, without your having to give away any proprietary information about the method.

[Dave Schwartz]

I only look at them as a group. There are 4 plus an occasional "price only" horse. Average is 4.35 horses per race.

82% of the winners are in these top 4.35.