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Old 03-03-2011, 02:48 PM   #1
jeebus1083
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Identifying Early leaders

After some deep thinking, observation, and soul-searching, I have to agree with Dave Schwartz about "EP" (pace call time) as an irrelevant factor (ripped from a previous thread). Let me first say this: I did not purchase "NewPace", so I'm not passing on any ideas or research of Dave's, nor is this an attempt to solicit some of those ideas in a public forum setting. Instead, I'm agreeing with Dave based on my past and present handicapping experiences, and explaining why. Agree or disagree if you wish. If you have your own personal ideas to expound upon, fire away. If you can piggy-back on my statements, also good.

For starters, I find EP times are very race-sensitive. Let's looks at two runners: Horse A has an EP of 58.00 fps, and Horse B is 56.66 fps, and are matched up based on those lines. The seemingly correct assumption is that Horse A has a clear advantage on Horse B. Game over. Or is it?

A wise man once told me: "every race is a unique event - the race is run once, only once, and never repeated again." Just like speed handicappers try and figure out how a horse earned a particular figure, pace handicappers have to do the same. Even though Horse A's 58.00 EP looks superior, a 58.00 on a clear lead might not paint an accurate picture of the horse's abilities under pressure. Furthermore, if Horse A's running style is to sit a few lengths behind the lead, and Horse B's mojo is the front, matching the 58.00 with the 56.66 will ultimately cause frustration. In all likelihood, if Horse B runs to the front and repeats the 56.66, and Horse A assumes his normal stalking position, Horse A naturally has to run a slower EP than Horse B, regardless of previous EPs. Sometimes, a horse happens to be "faster by default", and run style will be rendered irrelevant, but more often than not, taking the 58.00 over the 56.66 is an incorrect majority position.

EP is an irrelevant predictor for who will go to the front, because in most cases, the race is either 1/2 or 2/3rds complete. The race for the early lead will and forever always, start right out of the gate. Take this example of horse's early sprint lines - without using times:

Horse A: PP2 - Start: 5, 1/4 Pos: 1
Horse B: PP2 - Start: 1, 1/4 Pos: 1
Horse C: PP8 - Start: 1, 1/4 Pos: 1

Using Horse A's line, is he really a true "E" horse? Let's say that we watched the race replay. He broke slower than several of the outside horses, and then preceeded to rush forward. For a horse to rush up usually means an earlier expediture of energy, as they are suddenly trying to "catch up" with those who outbroke him. If I gave someone a head start in a running sprint, I would have to run much harder to catch up, which would empty the tank sooner, with little in reserve. I'm changing my pace to assume my rightful position, and I'm not comfortable. This is why I would favor Horse B if I matched these lines up. He got the jump over the slower starter. He can run "his race" without having to jump out of his comfort zone. Since he's inside, he only had to outbreak the rail runner to get that lead. Horse C has to outbreak a possible 7 other runners, and get inside to avoid losing ground, which means he'll usually have to use more energy. I'm not saying that outside post front-runners are bad bets (I don't have the stats or ROI to back up such a claim, so I won't go there - many outside runners can outbreak a field with no problem and are still comfortable), but the further away from the inside that one is, the harder one usually has to work.

Having dragged on, I ask myself these questions when trying to put a horse or horses on the lead:

Were they advantaged/disadvantaged by post position in previous races?
Will a change in karma (jockey/trainer/work pattern/post) change the habit?
Do other horses usually get the initial jump or is this horse on the engine from the gate?
Has the front-running style succeeded in similar track conditions?
Who tends to run faster first fractions on the lead?

This is the trickiest part, because 22.2 at one track might be 23.0 elsewhere, and 22.2 on a fast surface might equal 23.0 in a bog. Having said that, I think it's possible to use the raw fraction, but one has to really know how each individual track plays (par times help a lot, but so does regular play of several circuits). Times can also be run-up dependent, so that throws another wrinkle.

Speed Points do a good job, but going deeper IMO enhances those numbers, and exposes possible flaws that the points do not address.

Now, it's everyone's turn. Fire away.
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Old 03-03-2011, 03:34 PM   #2
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I always pay attention to the start call - with no beaten lengths - in sprints.
Sometimes, a horse can speed pop and leave the other earlies behind enough to put them out of their comfort zones. Back in the 70's and 80's, FL was a speed favoring track like no other. Whoever got out first had a huge advantage. Closers were horse who were worse than second out of the gate.
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Old 03-03-2011, 03:45 PM   #3
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Brohammer touches on what you are getting at in his book if I believe ... that is if I understand what you are saying.

He says that you cannot just compare FPS against one another to determine who will be where or who will get the lead. You also have to consider running styles. Because as you said above, a horse who tracked in 3rd in a 58.00 first fraction isn't automatically going to the lead next time out even that first fraction is slower.
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Old 03-03-2011, 04:03 PM   #4
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Tom-

Good memories of Les Hulet on the Lone Speed at FL.
Cashed a few of those at a price.
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Old 03-03-2011, 04:11 PM   #5
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mike pizzolla's software black magic has both postional and velocity measurements as a basis for his methodology, actually both are good indicators imo but are not mutually inclusive
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Old 03-03-2011, 04:44 PM   #6
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Jeebus,

Since the entire NewPace concept is based upon using NO PACE RATINGS, imagine what happens if we can do this well - then you add good pace numbers.

You REALLY need to look at NewPace.


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Old 03-03-2011, 09:20 PM   #7
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New Pace

This concept must have been out there somewhere if not Dave has A gem.
Has changed my complete outlook in last seven days since receiving DVD and grasping the tutorial.
Golden Gate today Early and late and tonight at Charles Town same thing.
Time and patience as New pace is consitent in your Handicapping a race.
Mac
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Old 03-03-2011, 09:55 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by offtrack
Tom-

Good memories of Les Hulet on the Lone Speed at FL.
Cashed a few of those at a price.


The golden goose was a drop from MSW to M15000 or to M7500, with early speed. Hulet, and that girl rider....Pinky Smith.....she was a master at speed popping and having horse left at the wire. The good old days.
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Old 03-03-2011, 11:17 PM   #9
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Quote:
This concept must have been out there somewhere if not Dave has A gem.
Has changed my complete outlook in last seven days since receiving DVD and grasping the tutorial.


Thanks, Mac.

It is a pretty amazing difference, isn't it. I can only assume that it will get better as we expand it.

To give credit where credit is due, it was Jim Cramer's concept of "where the winner takes the lead for the first time" that paved the way for this. I am still surprised at how different the race looks when compared to "Where the winner is."


Jim has some other principles, which he graciously taught me last week on my Kentucky trip. I look forward to spending some time working on some of those ideas in the coming months.


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Old 03-04-2011, 03:29 PM   #10
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I know that Jim Cramer is HDW, but does he have another website? Kind of curious.

As far as NewPace is concerned, I'll probably buy in the next couple of days. I'm busy all weekend, but may have time to do some exploring on Monday.
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Old 03-04-2011, 03:52 PM   #11
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In my thinking, EP isn't supposed to tell me who's going to get the lead. It tells me who should be winning at the quarter pole or thereabouts. Knowing/trying to figure out who has the lead at the top of the stretch is very important to me.
I make my own Quirin style figs and the pace fig is still important to me. I have begun making a 1fr fig to help me with this early speed thing....it's the same old question I have always had: running style vs figs...which one takes precedence?
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Old 03-04-2011, 03:54 PM   #12
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The key to winning in horse racing is: bet more on the winning horse.
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Old 03-08-2011, 08:35 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
In my thinking, EP isn't supposed to tell me who's going to get the lead. It tells me who should be winning at the quarter pole or thereabouts. Knowing/trying to figure out who has the lead at the top of the stretch is very important to me.
I make my own Quirin style figs and the pace fig is still important to me. I have begun making a 1fr fig to help me with this early speed thing....it's the same old question I have always had: running style vs figs...which one takes precedence?


While pace call analysis can be used as a balancing point, I think some call it a fulcrum point, it certainly doesn't tell you who will be on the lead at the stretch call or the 1/4 pole.

My experience tells me that, who is leading at the 2nd call or who is leading at the stretch call, isn't nearly as important as which 3 or 4 horses will be at the front, at the stretch call. I have posted several times in the past, and probably some others have mentioned it also, about 80% of all winners are in the top 4 positions at the stretch call. And, the vast majority of the winners who come from farther back at the stretch call, are the beneficiaries of the excess energy expenditures of several early speed horses.

So, if we can figure the 3 or 4 horses, depending on field size, that will be on top at the stretch, all that is left is deciding which of those 3 or 4 will have the strongest final run.

It's really an energy/positional problem, not just a "running style/pace" problem. How much energy can a horse expend in order to get to the front 4, at the stretch, and after expanding that amount of energy, how much energy will he have left?
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Last edited by raybo : 03-08-2011 at 08:50 AM.
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Old 03-08-2011, 08:50 AM   #14
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Smart Ass

Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
The key to winning in horse racing is: bet more on the winning horse.


Do us all a favor and don't be a smart ass!!!!


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Old 03-08-2011, 08:54 AM   #15
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Quote:
How much energy can a horse expend in order to get to the front 4, at the stretch, and after expanding that amount of energy, how much energy will he have left?


By the way, when you figure out how to determine this, DON'T TELL ANYONE!
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