Picks with High Place Probability

[Ray2000]

Go west and get out of snow by doing Buffalo / Northfield ..... Who'da thunk it.

Program relies too much Morning Line
Top pick is almost mirroring ML Pick

I'm using these factors in a Logistic Regression formula

Ave my Speed rating last 3
Class Shift
Driver rating
Todays Post Position
Morning Line
Trainer Winning percentage
Ave TM Class last 3
Ave TM Speed last 3
Break Percentage last 10
Ave Beat by lengths last 3
Ave Call gain/loss to half
In the Money % last 2 years
Trot/Pace
Last race Class
Last race Speed
Last race Driver rating
Last race 3/4 park outs 0,1,2
Last race finish
Last race Odds
Last Race 4th Q time

Each Track has its own numbers
For instance, Post 5 at Pompano is top predictor but completely ignored at Pocono


Northfield
R 1 #4 HULA LU 5/2 (0.72)................w/7,3
R 2 #4 POUNNE DE LUXE 3/1 (0.49).........w/6,1
R 3 #7 CRAZY LUV BUG 5/2 (0.53)..........w/6,5
R 4 #1 CG'S LADY 5/2 (0.64)..............w/4,2
R 5 #9 ANOTHER HAPPY DAY 5/2 (0.49)......w/4,6
R 6 #9 MILANO GRANDE 5/2 (0.44)..........w/4,2
R 7 #4 ANOTHER WILD WOMAN 7/2 (0.66).....w/1,3
R 8 #1 POWER EVERYWHERE 7/5 (0.79).......w/2,3
R 9 #2 THATILLBSWEET 5/2 (0.78)..........w/5,7
R 10 #5 MAKE A CALL 5/2 (0.64)............w/3,2
R 11 #2 KELLY BLUE CHIP 7/2 (0.54)........w/7,3
R 12 #4 MILLIONDOLLARFLIRT 3/1 (0.56).....w/5,1
R 13 #3 CARIBBEAN GIRL 5/2 (0.6)..........w/1,2
R 14 #3 HOOT HOOT HOOREI 6/1 (0.25).......w/4,6
R 15 #3 ALWAYS JAZZY 7/2 (0.41)...........w/1,5

Buffalo
R 1 #4 JUDGE AND JURY 7/2 (0.53).........w/1,5
R 2 #2 SPEED N BRAINS 3/1 (0.42).........w/1,4
R 3 #1 THISONEANDONEMORE 5/1 (0.52)......w/5,4
R 4 #3 T BOONE 8/5 (0.61)................w/5,6
R 5 #1 DONTCH REMEMBER 5/2 (0.65)........w/4,2
R 6 #3 YANKEE ELIZABETH 3/1 (0.42).......w/2,4
R 7 #1 BRUISERS SISTER 5/1 (0.41)........w/3,6
R 8 #2 SEA ME NOW 5/2 (0.63).............w/1,4
R 9 #1 MAJOR MOVES 3/1 (0.54)............w/5,4
R 10 #4 STEUBEN LORETTA 3/1 (0.44)........w/1,5
R 11 #1 AIN'T NO STOPPIN' 3/1 (0.56)......w/5,2
R 12 #1 TEAM EDWARD 5/1 (0.59)............w/3,5

[mrroyboy]

Buffalo and Northfield to get away from snow is amazing.

[Ray2000]

Yesterday
Win bets ....54 in 25 back
Place bets ..54 in 37 back
Ex key .....216 in 314 back


PLACEBOT Picks for keybox Exactas
Meadows Friday
R 1 #6 VISIBLE GOLD 2/1 (0.74)...........w/5,4
R 2 #4 NUCLEAR BROWN 7/2 (0.55)..........w/6,8
R 3 #3 CHANCEY K 9/2 (0.57)..............w/6,5
R 4 #1 DANGEROUS TIDE 3/1 (0.6)..........w/3,5
R 5 #5 AMAZING QUEST 3/1 (0.75)..........w/6,4
R 6 #1 HEDGES LANE 5/2 (0.65)............w/4,5
R 7 #6 ELIAN'S PONDA 5/2 (0.73)..........w/3,2
R 8 #4 E R PACMAN 9/2 (0.73).............w/7,1
R 9 #4 D MAC 6/1 (0.71)..................w/6,1
R 10 #5 BERGERAC 3/1 (0.67)...............w/1,4
R 11 #5 CROSBY'S CUP 5/2 (0.78)...........w/3,4
R 12 #1 THUNDER CAT 3/1 (0.54)............w/2,4
R 13 #5 DELLIE'S JEWEL 4/1 (0.66).........w/1,3
R 14 #2 ARTIST NIGHT 5/2 (0.78)...........w/4,5
R 15 #5 CLASSICAL CAVIAR 12/1 (0.71)......w/2,3

Big M
R 1 #9 SWEET BET 15/1 (0.63).............w/3,6 glitch?
R 2 #6 DAYLON MAGICIAN 9/5 (0.74)........w/7,5
R 3 #6 ALWAYS ON A ROLL 3/1 (0.77).......w/9,5
R 4 #2 DIZZY RIZZY 5/1 (0.75)............w/3,1
R 5 #5 CAMERON LUCKY 10/1 (0.76).........w/6,8
R 6 #6 HELIOS 7/2 (0.68).................w/5,4
R 7 #4 MARINADE HANOVER 8/1 (0.73).......w/3,5
R 8 #8 BANKER VOLO 5/2 (0.74)............w/6,5
R 9 #5 ADDYS WAY 3/1 (0.73)..............w/10,2
R 10 pass
R 11 #8 SIMPLE SAVER N 5/2 (0.82).........w/7,5
R 12 #5 OMNIPOTENT 5/2 (0.75).............w/6,7
R 13 #9 LADY SON YADOR A 8/1 (0.76).......w/1,3

Woodbine
R 1 #6 MARGARITA MAN 10/1 (0.67).........w/4,2 Will be picking Golden Post alot
R 2 #5 TWIN B INSPIRING 9/2 (0.76).......w/1,6
R 3 #4 CANBEC KADENCE 5/1 (0.74).........w/2,6
R 4 #1 LADY VALENTINE 12/1 (0.71)........w/5,10
R 5 #6 DEVRIES HANOVER 6/1 (0.83)........w/8,1
R 6 #2 MISS SAND CREEK 9/2 (0.66)........w/6,7
R 7 #3 LANESIDE LEXUS 9/2 (0.77).........w/2,6
R 8 #2 FIRST IMPRESSION 7/2 (0.79).......w/7,1
R 9 #6 LIVE TO DREAM 8/1 (0.82)..........w/5,7
R 10 #6 JEREMEYES JEWEL 6/1 (0.75)........w/5,3
R 11 #5 WONDERFUL CHARM 3/1 (0.78)........w/4,2


Yonkers cancelled......awhhh, and Pierce needs the money.....

[traynor]

Are you using the same weighted values for every track?

[Ray2000]

I'm using different coefficients on each factor for each of the 32 tracks I play.
So its 32 different formulas based on last years data for each track.

The factor importance varies a lot from track to track.

I'm in the process of applying the method to year 2012 for the acid test.

Still working out some glitches.


ACES ....FRD .....MEA .....PRC
BMLP ....GEOD ....MOH .....RIDC
BTVA ....GRVR ....MR ......SCD
BR ......HAR .....NFLD ....STGA
CALX ....HOP .....NP ......TGDN
DD ......LON .....PCD .....VD
FHLD ....M .......PHL .....WDB
FLMD ....MAY .....PPK .....YR

[mrroyboy]

I think I should have picked Marinade Hanover for the contest. Oh well. Ray will be right and I will be wrong. What else is new!!!

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

I'm using different coefficients on each factor for each of the 32 tracks I play.
So its 32 different formulas based on last years data for each track.

The factor importance varies a lot from track to track.

I'm in the process of applying the method to year 2012 for the acid test.

Still working out some glitches.


ACES ....FRD .....MEA .....PRC
BMLP ....GEOD ....MOH .....RIDC
BTVA ....GRVR ....MR ......SCD
BR ......HAR .....NFLD ....STGA
CALX ....HOP .....NP ......TGDN
DD ......LON .....PCD .....VD
FHLD ....M .......PHL .....WDB
FLMD ....MAY .....PPK .....YR

I totally agree. I think those who are not using computer models may not realize how much difference there is between tracks--especially in how important one or another factor is at each track.

One of the more useful simulations I have run is based on class groupings at specific tracks--there are substantial variations in the importance of the factors at different class levels at the same track. The whole idea seems to be to strike a balance between tossing everything into the same pot and layering so finely that the sample size skews results into the area of "insufficient data to be predictive."

[mrroyboy]

Ray How does the bot figure speed? You say average last three but what figures are you using. Also do you figure class drop to be 3 pts or more?

[Ray2000]

Two different Speed factors are used

1. Average TM speed uses the last 3 Trackmaster numbers that are valid speed ratings, no Quals or DNF races (-99s)

2. My speed for those 3 races is based on Total Time + 4th Q time + adjustments for racing wides, DTV, & Track Speed Rating and post

So a panel of 31 30 30 29 would be better than a 30 30 30 30 ......2:00+29 vs 2:00+30

And yes, Class difference of 3 is what I use.

[Ray2000]

Yesterday Woodbine R7 Miss Sand Creek $17.40 and R9 pulled me out of a bad day 5-6 Ex $110.00

Win bets ....62 in 43.20 back
Place bets ..62 in 58.00 back
Ex key .....248 in 309 back

Saturday
Big M
R 1 #6 LATE NIGHT JOKE 10/1 (0.8)........w/3,5
R 2 #6 ROCK FAME 5/1 (0.83)..............w/1,7
R 3 #6 ALEX BULLVILLE 9/2 (0.73).........w/5,10
R 4 #4 GRAB YOUR KEYS 5/2 (0.73).........w/3,7
R 5 #5 BETTORS GLASS 3/1 (0.7)...........w/6,9
R 6 #5 ALEXIE MATTOSIE 15/1 (0.74).......w/7,2
R 7 #3 DREAMLANDS ART 5/2 (0.72).........w/9,6
R 8 #4 UF ROCKIN DRAGON 9/2 (0.8)........w/9,2
R 9 #4 BURKENTINE HANOVER 5/2 (0.77).....w/5,3
R 10 #4 WILDRIDGE SAM 10/1 (0.71)........w/10,2
R 11 #9 ABELARD HANOVER 5/2 (0.78).......w/4,5
R 12 #10 I FOUGHT DALAW 12/1 (0.7).......w/7,2
R 13 #4 GRATIAS DEO 15/1 (0.77)..........w/6,10

Woodbine
R 1 #5 STRIKING LINDSEY 4/1 (0.77).......w/6,4
R 2 #4 ADDISON BAY 5/2 (0.81)............w/5,6
R 3 #3 MAJESTIC TAGLET 3/1 (0.65)........w/5,1
R 4 #7 DONEGAL GERALD 10/1 (0.87)........w/6,1
R 5 #1 J C ONTHEBEACH 4/1 (0.83).........w/2,5
R 6 #6 ORDER BY COMMANDER 7/1 (0.78).....w/4,7
R 7 #4 BIG BAY POINT 5/1 (0.71)..........w/1,8
R 8 #1 ALEXAS JACKPOT 3/1 (0.78).........w/6,2
R 9 #6 SPEED AGAIN 3/1 (0.78)............w/3,5
R 10 #6 APPRENTICE HANOVER 7/5 (0.83)....w/4,5
R 11 #3 COOL ROCK 3/1 (0.74).............w/5,10

Yonkers
R 1 #1 BLATANTLY BEST 8/5 (0.78).........w/2,3
R 2 #5 LIGHTNING RAIDER N 8/5 (0.78).....w/2,1
R 3 #3 N J LAW 8/5 (0.71)................w/4,2
R 4 #3 HANDSOME PRINCE 6/1 (0.56)........w/6,1
R 5 #2 MONTREAL PHIL 8/5 (0.65)..........w/1,5
R 6 #4 P H SUPERCAM 9/5 (0.77)...........w/1,2
R 7 #3 ALLSTAR LEGEND 5/1 (0.8)..........w/5,1
R 8 #4 STONEHOUSE ADAM 4/1 (0.8).........w/2,1
R 9 #1 SEEK THE DRAGON 3/1 (0.62)........w/3,2
R 10 #2 ROCKIN WIZARD 4/1 (0.75).........w/1,5
R 11 #3 DINNER GUEST 9/5 (0.72)..........w/1,2
R 12 #3 SAFE HARBOR 3/1 (0.73)...........w/4,5

[Ray2000]

Yesterday Loss
Win bets ....72 in 52 back
Place bets ..72 in 42 back
Ex key .....280 in 206 back (1 scr)


Sunday
Dover
R 1 #7 PINEAROSA 5/2 (0.87)..............w/5,8
R 2 #5 REINDANCE RAY 5/2 (0.86)..........w/3,1
R 3 #9 ROCK THE OFFICIAL 5/2 (0.9).......w/4,3
R 4 #1 ALL PRO HALL 5/2 (0.85)...........w/3,2
R 5 #5 UP TOWN WATTS 3/1 (0.78)..........w/6,2
R 6 #2 J J NITRO 3/1 (0.83)..............w/1,3
R 7 #3 SHARK MCGWIRE 3/1 (0.85)..........w/4,2
R 8 #4 RUSTY SKIPP 5/2 (0.88)............w/1,6
R 9 #2 CHARGER 10/1 (0.82)...............w/1,3
R 10 #5 TALK IT UP 4/1 (0.79).............w/1,6
R 11 #1 JUST A WHIZ 2/1 (0.77)............w/4,2
R 12 #2 CELTIC PRIDE 2/1 (0.78)...........w/6,1
R 13 #3 MIC MAC BEAU 8/1 (0.85)...........w/4,6
R 14 #4 NON PARTISAN 3/1 (0.83)...........w/2,6
R 15 #1 FALCON'S BREEZE 5/2 (0.78)........w/9,7

Flamboro
R 1 #4 KUKALAKA 3/1 (0.7)................w/2,6
R 2 #3 A REAL COMMITMENT 3/1 (0.62)......w/6,2
R 3 #4 PASTA VERA 2/1 (0.64).............w/1,2
R 4 #5 VAL AMERICA 4/1 (0.54)............w/3,1
R 5 #4 WOGGY ROCKS 3/1 (0.76)............w/2,6
R 6 #2 ZIGGY SKY 2/1 (0.65)..............w/4,7
R 7 #1 CELTIC DIVA 3/1 (0.73)............w/7,6
R 8 #2 CIONA BROMACH 9/2 (0.57)..........w/7,4
R 9 #4 HONI MAKER 2/1 (0.51).............w/6,2
R 10 #5 MOBRO FLIRT 3/1 (0.63)............w/1,6
R 11 #6 MY MAN CHARLEY 6/1 (0.69).........w/3,5
R 12 #2 BROTHER JOHN 9/2 (0.66)...........w/5,4

I like Flammy, hate Dover....Playing A/BC on these ($4 tickets)

[Ray2000]

Yesterday another Loss not a good day for chalk
Win bets ....54 in 41 back
Place bets ..54 in 46 back
Ex key .....108 in 26.20 back

Go with Morning Line Longshots this time Key box Exactas
DD....R 9 #1 SUSAN'S DESIRE - 6/1 (0.8)........w/5,3

FHLD..R 3 #2 MR MYSTERIO - 10/1 (0.95).........w/3,4

LON...R 6 #1 O SEE MY ARTIST - 6/1 (0.61)......w/3,4
LON...R 7 #8 CIS BUCKEYE - 8/1 (0.62)..........w/2,6
LON...R 8 #7 FIRST NOTABLE CHIP - 6/1 (0.59)...w/8,4
LON...R 11 #1 ALBERGETTY - 6/1 (0.54)..........w/3,4
LON...R 12 #3 MAJOR WAGER - 8/1 (0.56).........w/4,9

NFLD..R 13 #4 ROSSRIDGE HANDSOME - 6/1 (0.68)..w/1,9

PPK...R 2 #5 A WEEKEND - 8/1 (0.81)............w/7,4
PPK...R 3 #6 LIKE A GATOR - 6/1 (0.81).........w/5,1
PPK...R 4 #5 DIAMOND AMBER - 8/1 (0.76)........w/7,6

WDB...R 3 #5 SMARTY PANTS - 8/1 (0.74).........w/7,8
WDB...R 5 #5 MONEY MAVEN - 10/1 (0.72).........w/9,1
WDB...R 10 #6 WINNING DREAM - 6/1 (0.84).......w/5,3

YR....R 1 #4 GRAND MASTER - 12/1 (0.65)........w/1,3
YR....R 2 #3 FUNNY PHOTO - 6/1 (0.7)...........w/1,4
YR....R 8 #1 RED ROCK - 6/1 (0.7)..............w/3,5
YR....R 9 #1 CEE PEE PANIC - 8/1 (0.76)........w/5,2

[arno]

It is amazing how often post position number 5 wins at Pompano compared to all the other post positions.

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by arno

It is amazing how often post position number 5 wins at Pompano compared to all the other post positions.

And the ROI remains positive year to year


Year 2009
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=65030


Year 2012
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=102265

[mrroyboy]

Middle posts have always been good at 5/8 and mile tracks.