Best Post Positions 2009

[Ray2000]

Here's my "Best Posts to Play" for 2009
I could be missing a few starts, mostly Canadian Tracks where I don't play much.

The winner is....Post 5 (6 positive ROI's)


Track
Starts
Win%
ROI% (return by always betting the post, every race)

		
 
PP1	 PP2	 PP3	 PP4	 PP5	 PP6	 PP7	 PP8	 PP9	 PP10	PP11	PP12
BigM																					
1627	1627	1627	1627	1626	1618	1555	1381	1133	704	 25	 2
12%	 11%	 12%	 11%	 15%	 14%	 10%	 10%	 7%	 7%	 20%	 0%
-46%	-35%	-29%	-28%	-3%	 -11%	-22%	-31%	-52%	-56%	-33%	-100%
BMLP																					
1902	1902	1902	1902	1899	1892	1830	1590	1195	696	 6	 3
14%	 14%	 11%	 12%	 14%	 12%	 9%	 9%	 7%	 8%	 0%	 0%
-23%	-23%	-45%	-41%	-19%	-31%	-36%	-24%	-37%	-24%	-100% -100%
CALX																					
1262	1262	1262	1262	1256	1190	957	 606	 275	 107	 31	 17
17%	 15%	 13%	 13%	 19%	 11%	 10%	 8%	 5%	 3%	 16%	 0%
-17%	-16%	-27%	-4%	 -20%	-43%	-37%	-26%	-54%	-80%	+43%	 -100%
CHST																					
2089	2089	2089	2089	2089	2069	1971	1479	0	 0	 0	 0
12%	 13%	 14%	 15%	 19%	 11%	 10%	 9%	 -	 -	 -	 -
-37%	-42%	-30%	-23%	-5%	 -29%	-32%	-42%	-	 -	 -	 -
DD																					 
1753	1753	1753	1753	1753	1744	1693	1441	457	 4	 0	 0
18%	 15%	 14%	 15%	 16%	 9%	 7%	 4%	 12%	 0%	 -	 -
-17%	-24%	-20%	-31%	-17%	-38%	-43%	-55%	+49%	 -100% -	 -
FHLD																					
1745	1745	1745	1745	1743	1711	1576	1086	22	 0	 0	 0
23%	 19%	 15%	 17%	 12%	 7%	 5%	 3%	 14%	 -	 -	 -
-18%	-20%	-34%	-29%	-42%	-47%	-48%	-66%	-9%	 -	 -	 -
FLMD																					
2614	2614	2614	2614	2614	2610	2560	2280	1566	16	 0	 0
20%	 15%	 12%	 15%	 15%	 9%	 5%	 3%	 11%	 0%	 -	 -
-18%	-33%	-45%	-16%	-13%	-43%	-55%	-71%	-33%	-100% -	 -
FRD																					 
1064	1062	1061	1061	1060	1044	973	 838	 615	 9	 0	 0
16%	 17%	 13%	 15%	 17%	 8%	 5%	 3%	 13%	 0%	 -	 -
-31%	-4%	 -43%	-13%	 +5%	 -52%	-6%	 -56%	-14%	-100% -	 -
GEOD																					
1172	1172	1171	1171	1170	1162	1107	920	 553	 33	 0	 0
18%	 14%	 15%	 15%	 16%	 9%	 7%	 6%	 3%	 0%	 -	 -
-13%	-25%	-21%	-30%	 +1%	 -48%	-47%	-59%	-80%	-100% -	 -
HAR																					 
1780	1780	1780	1779	1779	1766	1695	1297	0	 0	 0	 0
20%	 17%	 14%	 16%	 14%	 8%	 8%	 4%	 -	 -	 -	 -
-29%	-24%	-35%	-21%	-11%	-47%	-16%	-38%	-	 -	 -	 -
HOP																					 
1091	1091	1091	1091	1091	1091	1069	1006	884	 587	 27	 12
11%	 9%	 11%	 13%	 17%	 11%	 9%	 8%	 6%	 12%	 7%	 0%
-34%	-41%	-35%	-11%	+14%	 -34%	-28%	-47%	-36%	-18%	+43%	 -100%
HP																					 
988	 988	 988	 988	 988	 976	 898	 774	 533	 9	 3	 0
11%	 12%	 14%	 17%	 18%	 13%	 9%	 6%	 5%	 0%	 0%	 -
-40%	-23%	-16%	 +6%	+4%	 -28%	-39%	-41%	-44%	-100% -100% -
INDY																					
1000	1000	1000	1000	1000	997	 973	 913	 754	 511	 24	 6
13%	 11%	 11%	 14%	 13%	 8%	 10%	 9%	 7%	 15%	 13%	 0%
-21%	-26%	-32%	-4%	 -1%	 -45%	-40%	-30%	-40% +13%	+79%	 -100%
LON																					 
1514	1511	1511	1511	1511	1500	1455	1211	19	 3	 0	 0
21%	 18%	 15%	 15%	 11%	 8%	 3%	 11%	 0%	 0%	 -	 -
-21%	-18%	-6%	 -23%	-43%	-49%	-69%	-13%	-100% -100% -	 -
MAY																					 
1195	1195	1195	1195	1195	1195	1176	1027	82	 1	 1	 0
22%	 19%	 13%	 16%	 13%	 8%	 5%	 4%	 17%	 100%	0%	 -
-15%	-20%	-39%	-20%	-11%	-35%	-41%	-52%	+63%	+970%	-100% -
MEA																					 
3307	3307	3307	3307	3307	3300	3186	2793	1764	1	 0	 0
12%	 12%	 13%	 15%	 16%	 11%	 10%	 9%	 7%	 0%	 -	 -
-39%	-35%	-26%	-17%	-8%	 -22%	-20%	-20%	-26%	-100% -	 -
MOH																					 
1392	1392	1391	1391	1391	1384	1347	1215	988	 629	 11	 1
12%	 13%	 12%	 10%	 17%	 17%	 10%	 7%	 6%	 0%	 0%	 0%
-32%	-16%	-28%	-45%	+7%	 +0%	 -24%	-39%	-36%	-100% -100% -100%
MR																					 
2583	2583	2583	2583	2582	2552	2397	1723	1	 1	 1	 0
18%	 15%	 16%	 16%	 16%	 10%	 7%	 3%	 0%	 0%	 0%	 -
-34%	-36%	-18%	-4%	 -11%	-22%	-29%	-66%	-100% -100% -100% -
NFLD																					
2865	2865	2865	2865	2865	2855	2810	2637	2005	1	 0	 0
17%	 15%	 15%	 16%	 13%	 8%	 5%	 3%	 12%	 0%	 -	 -
-23%	-20%	-27%	-7%	 -19%	-38%	-55%	-61%	-34%	-100% -	 -
PCD																					 
2118	2118	2118	2118	2117	2102	2028	1749	994	 0	 0	 0
14%	 15%	 13%	 15%	 16%	 10%	 9%	 7%	 5%	 -	 -	 -
-24%	-28%	-34%	-15%	-12%	-31%	-26%	-34%	-63%	-	 -	 -
PPK																					 
1261	1261	1261	1261	1259	1245	1154	966	 614	 18	 1	 0
13%	 12%	 12%	 13%	 22%	 13%	 8%	 5%	 5%	 11%	 0%	 -
-43%	-44%	-48%	-41%	+10%	 -13%	-50%	-61%	-54%	-84%	-100% -
RIDC																					
2324	2321	2321	2321	2321	2310	2239	2010	1494	7	 0	 0
18%	 16%	 13%	 14%	 13%	 9%	 6%	 4%	 11%	 0%	 -	 -
-27%	-24%	-34%	-15%	-37%	-45%	-64%	-59%	-16%	-100% -	 -
STGA																					
2190	2190	2190	2190	2190	2180	2053	1595	0	 0	 0	 0
21%	 17%	 15%	 17%	 13%	 9%	 6%	 5%	 -	 -	 -	 -
-25%	-34%	-28%	-5%	 -30%	-36%	-45%	-38%	-	 -	 -	 -
WDB																					 
1387	1387	1387	1387	1387	1380	1332	1199	988	 621	 22	 4
10%	 12%	 11%	 12%	 17%	 16%	 10%	 9%	 8%	 0%	 0%	 0%
-29%	-26%	-26%	-25%	-8%	 -8%	 -23%	-21%	-28%	-100% -100% -100%
WR																					 
1134	1133	1133	1133	1133	1127	1045	859	 504	 2	 0	 0
14%	 13%	 15%	 18%	 17%	 9%	 7%	 7%	 6%	 0%	 -	 -
-23%	-35%	-15%	-7%	 -17%	-48%	-46%	-35%	-31%	-100% -	 -
YR																					 
3126	3126	3126	3126	3124	3112	3010	2369	0	 0	 0	 0
23%	 16%	 15%	 17%	 13%	 9%	 6%	 3%	 -	 -	 -	 -
-16%	-25%	-26%	-18%	-23%	-28%	-35%	-64%	-	 -	 -	 -

If you'd like a track not listed, PM me

[LottaKash]

Thanks so much RAY, a handy little tool, for sure.....I can't stop reading your chart.....

These things are "good" to know.....More than a few "eye-openers" for me.....

So glad you posted this....You da man, "Amaretto Man".....

best,

[markgoldie]

It is no coincidence that post #5 is the best post at many tracks. The reason has to do with the GAP that exists between the #4 and #5 horse that is caused by the center of the starting-gate car.

This gap helps the horse and driver in two ways. First, it allows the driver more time to get to the rail without fear of being parked out. Hence, a driver of a #5 horse has more time to assess the leaving situation before making a final decision on whether or not to leave. This decision is particularly important when it comes to the actions of the #4 horse. That's because it is easiest to leave for the top when your horse has some room to his left to leave and then angle down to the rail. It is hardest to leave when the horse directly to your left is leaving full blast along with you. Even if the #4 horse leaves as well, the extra sliding space makes it easier to eventually get around him.

Even when taking back, as I said in an earlier post, it is easiest on the horse if he is able to "slide" to the rail, rather than being sharply taken back to the rail and the reason deals with conservation of momentum. So even when a #5 horse takes off, he has a little more room to slide to the pylons rather than being jerked and wrestled back.

A final reason applies to eveything but half-mile tracks, and that is that mid-pack leaving positions can often tactically be the best places to start. For example, inside posts like the 1 and 2 hole on larger tracks are tricky because the driver often finds himself close to, but not on the pace, which means that his chances of being first over are greatly increased. As we know, outside posts are disadvantageous simply because of the unfavorable starting distance from the rail. And so, mid-pack starting points can often work out well as far as racing tactics are concerned.

So, to my knowledge, the #5 starting position has always been good on everything but half-milers, where the short run into the first turn makes the rail and two hole the best place to be.

[DeanT]

Dataminer Ray,

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/new...takes-hit.html

An unlucky fan, commonly referred to as a 'bridge jumper,' wagered in excess of $10,000 to show on Suzette Seelster through the YouBet Portland hub on the first race at Cal-Expo this past Saturday night (January 16).

“Hey, this isn’t the first time a bridge jumper has gotten stung on our program and I’m pretty sure it won't be the last," director of racing David Elliott said. "I give this person all the kudos in the world as this was a very gutsy bet because not only was Suzette Seelster the only girl in the race, she had been off 13 days, she was coming off of a scratch, plus she was off lasix for the first time since 2006. I sincerely hope this person didn't hurt themselves too badly."

Any subset that you can mine? I am thinking that a horse off a scratch with 13 days off, switching meds is probably not a good thing for my wallet.

[melman]

Dean---I read the last sentence of your last post and Yes NOT a good idea. I do love betting the "trailer" post. The 9 post number at Dover fig that Ray put up is no fluke. IMO it gets underbet. Some half-mile tracks have the 8 as the "trailer" now ie. Western Fair. Also if you are betting serious at Chester or Meadows note that they have the "new" slanted starting gate which IMO gives a better chance to outside post horeses. Would love to see Mark's view of that point as I think he has posted that he does play Meadows.

[Ray2000]

Dean

Found 1058 starters in 2009 whose last pp line was a scratch, for what ever reason. Sick,Lame,Judges. and showing a Medicine difference.
Almost all were off longer than 13 days but the lasix was comparing todays med wiith the day of the scratch when looking for a medication change

Anyway, $2 bet on each would return $1274.40 for a -39.8% ROI,

[DeanT]

LOL! I think that is worse than my investment portfolio for 2008

Thanks bud.

[pandy]

Thanks for the post position stats. Notice that the tracks with slanted starting gates, such as Chester and the Meadows, are more balanced, the outside posts aren't that bad.

[LottaKash]

Ray, I was wondering, did you ever come up with any Post-Positon stats for "Tioga"....??

I use your Best Posts quite often, they are so useful, thx over and over again for them Ray....

best,

[Ray2000]

LK this is what I have for Tioga 2009 (unofficial)
I didn't include it in the above list because of the borderline sample size, (619 starts)

Post		 PP1	 PP2	 PP3	 PP4	PP5	 PP6	 PP7	 PP8	 PP9 
Starts		619	 619	 619	 619	 618	 612	541	 410	 240
Actual Wins	86	 98	 88	 96	 93	 77	 46	 22	 13
% Wins		 14%	 16%	 14%	 16%	 15%	 13%	 9%	 5%	 5%
% Dev		 7%	 19%	 9%	 17%	 14%	 -2%	-45%	-118%	-105%
Bet post	$1,238	$1,238 $1,238 $1,238	$1,236 $1,224 $1,082	$820	$480
Return		$823	$1,092	$875	$819	$1,008	$885	$585	$202	$160
ROI%		 -34%	 -12%	-29%	-34%	 -19%	-28%	-46%	-75%	-67%

Dev is percent more or less wins than expected if there was no bias.

2 hole seems to be best on wins and being overlooked by bettors on ROI.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

LK this is what I have for Tioga 2009 (unofficial)
I didn't include it in the above list because of the borderline sample size, (619 starts)



Dev is percent more or less wins than expected if there was no bias.

2 hole seems to be best on wins and being overlooked by bettors on ROI.

Thanks so much Ray, again...

I understand about the low sample rate, still any info may be good info.....

You da man Ray, as always....

best,

[markgoldie]

Just re-read this thread since it has been ressurected. Didn't notice before, and I should have, that the good effect of the 5 hole is best on the larger tracks (5/8 and larger). This makes a lot of sense since any tactical advantage gained from the extra room next to the 4 horse is overwhelmed by the strong advantage that exists with the inside posts. The glaring exception is Dover, but this is not really surprising either because the wide turns and short stretch makes this track play like a half-miler more than a 5/8. Anyone who has watched the racing there knows what I mean.

Personally, I don't like betting half-milers because the racing is so position-driven, rather than strength-of-animal driven. In fact, when I do look at half milers, I always start withn the assumption that the inside positions are so powerful, that the 1,2,3, and 4 are the horses to beat. I play gimmicks and it takes a strong degree of non-competitveness to leave any one of these animals completely off a ticket. In the case of trailers, like at Northfield, I add the 9 to that mix. Interestingly, I've found that trailers who are natural leavers do the best in this position. The slow-footed horses often don't keep up with the 1 horse leaving and give holes to other leavers.

I know that Ray is the stat master and it would be interesting to know ROI on tri boxes 1-2-3-4 or 1-2-3-4-9 in races with trailers on half milers.

To answer Mel's question about slanted gates and outside posts which I missed in the first go-around: It's a double-edged sword, but one which can be "gamed" to some degree. The slanted gate makes outside posts pretty good for leaving types. They get a pretty good jump and a chance to maintain momentum when they leave. On the other hand, the slanted gate is horrible for non-leavers with outer posts. And that's because they have to be strangled back when they are actually ahead of the inner horses at the outset. Often, by the time the driver gets the horse back to last or next-to-last, it's time to start moving or you have no chance whatsoever to get into the race. Consequently, non-leavers with outer posts must have something like a 1 or 2% win rate. The reason has to do as much with "conservation of momentum" as anything else.

At the risk of a digression which some may not find useful, a word about "momentum". IMO, this is not as well understood as it might be. The point is that breaking a horse's momentum at any point of a race is harmful to his final-speed performance. I think this fact is greatly responsible for what we might term "final speed anomalies." For example, we've all seen situations where a $10,000 claimer goes a second faster than a $20,000 claimer on the same card. Often, the opening fractions will look similar, so we can't attribute the difference to pace. But what we sometimes can attribute it to is the momentum of the race. In the faster race, the momentum remains steady thoughout, while in the slower event, the momentum is broken by the pacesetter who gets a slower, momentum-breaking eighth of a mile after the half. This can happen when a first-over animal is dead in the outer flow and the driver of the pacesetter grabs at a chance to ease offf the gas pedal. This loss of momentum both for himself and the other horses in the race can be enough to significanlty affect the final time of the event.

I also think that what we might call "momentum" drivers are doing the best in the sport with few exceptions. Maybe the best example of this is the difference in style between George Brennan and Brian Sears. Brennan is a momentum driver and Sears isn't. Sears is more of a positional driver, constantly looking for the favorable flow trip. Brennan is pedal-to-the-metal. In general, Sears is looking to set up the strong late rally, whereas Brennan is looking to create speed and maintain the momentum. Well, look who's on top of the standings.

Momentum drivers like Brennan, Napolitano, Merriman, etc. do not "rate" horses on the front in the traditional sense of the word. They keep the horse moving because they understand that once the momentum is compromised, it's nearly impossible to regain, particularly when we are talking about average racehorses. Maybe we could create a whole new category of handicapper: The Momentum Analyst.

At any rate, these are just some babblings of an old man which I hope hasn't put too many to sleep.

[Ray2000]

Mark

some quick results for Trifecta boxing inside 4 on half mile tracks

26561 Races costing $48 to Box 1,2,3,4

Wagered .......$1,274,928
Return..............$851,946
net.................$(422,982)
ROI....................-33.2%


To make it easy I just eliminated

all Field sizes < 7 or > 9
any race with a scratch on any of the inside horses 1-4
any race with coupled entries


(Results file 3.6 Meg, is at http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/ )

Tracks included
BANG
BR
BTVA
FHLD
FLMD
GRVR
HAR
HAY
LEB
LON
MAY
MR
NFLD
NOR
OD
QUE
SCAR
STGA
TRRVS
YR

[markgoldie]

Wow. Very surprised that the ROI is so low. Of course, there are two logical explanations. First, the takeouts are much higher in gimmicks and two, the bettors tend to bet the inside posts anyway. But still, -33% is huge. Thanks. Guess you answered this question!

[theguarantee]

Very informative post.

Do you have the numbers for Buffalo Raceway by chance?