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Old 06-21-2018, 11:49 PM   #16
BaconLover
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My main angle is to find reasons why favorites might lose. That opens the door to value. Some things to look for include the following:

1. A favorite with higher speed ratings that drops in class, but hasn’t shown that he can cut a mile or he previously only follows horses without making a move. He will likely try to make an early move in a race as heavy fav and may not last.

2. A favorite that won his previous race at long odds, but whose speed rating was higher than normal. Perhaps the stars aligned that day and he got a perfect trip, but he might not have the same luck next time.

3. Playing against everybody betting on Foiled Again to win his 100th.

4. Seeing favorites draw post positions that don’t suit their running styles. (E.g., McWicked drawing the 6-hole last week without having early speed or knowing that Takter is prepping his trotters and won’t be gunning from an outside post without big money on the line.)

5. A favorite that doesn’t put up a strong last quarter to finish his miles. Just because he can finish in 28.3 after a hot pace doesn’t mean he will finish in 27.0 after a slow to moderate pace.

6. A favorite that lost last time despite having a perfect trip. If he didn’t have an excuse, then don’t give him one, especially at short odds.

The key is to identify these situations and figure out how to maximize your returns. If you think a chalk is vulnerable, but you think he will likely hit the board, then maybe a multi-leg wager is best. If you think the fav might not hit the board, then go for a tri or super.
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Old 06-22-2018, 05:12 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by BaconLover View Post
...... If you think a chalk is vulnerable, but you think he will likely hit the board, then maybe a multi-leg wager is best. If you think the fav might not hit the board, then go for a tri or super.
Good points, thx Bacon, playing in the right pool is important.

I've used this gimmick bet since 1970, it still works.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=50155
This post was 2008, OMG I have been posting for 10 years????

While searching for this post I found this one on angles.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=70850
Good Luck
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Old 06-22-2018, 07:48 AM   #18
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Thanks for the references, Ray. Good reads!

Maybe it’s me, but so much emphasis is given to how to pick winners, yet I see so little on how to bet a live 10-1 or 20-1 shot. There are many variables to consider, such as the following:

1. Is your LLS (live longshot) 10-1 but actually the 3rd favorite in the race? Or is he 10-1 and the 6th favorite? In the former, there are likely 1 or 2 heavy favs, so the gimmick value might not be there and a win bet might be best. In the latter, there is serious gimmick value because a 6th fav or way under the radar.

2. Starting a multileg wager, especially a p4 or p5, with a LLS pays much better than catching a LLS in the middle to last legs instead. Since players can see the high odds in the 1st leg, they tend to shy away from him and will include other short to mid favorites instead.

3. A LLS with a low morning line is probably not “dismissed” in gimmicks as much and would likely pay less than what you’d like.

The one thing I tell friends who are trying to understand horse racing is that this game is better than any game in a casino because...the odds that a horse pays to win has nothing to do with his actual chances of winning. The payout is based on who the public thinks will win. If you can outsmart the consensus, you can win big.

I love harness racing because there are more reasons for a favorite to lose, which allows us the opportunity to win big more often.

This is why my primary angle starts with finding vulnerable favorites.
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Old 06-22-2018, 07:54 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BaconLover View Post
My main angle is to find reasons why favorites might lose. That opens the door to value. Some things to look for include the following:

1. A favorite with higher speed ratings that drops in class, but hasn’t shown that he can cut a mile or he previously only follows horses without making a move. He will likely try to make an early move in a race as heavy fav and may not last.

2. A favorite that won his previous race at long odds, but whose speed rating was higher than normal. Perhaps the stars aligned that day and he got a perfect trip, but he might not have the same luck next time.

3. Playing against everybody betting on Foiled Again to win his 100th.

4. Seeing favorites draw post positions that don’t suit their running styles. (E.g., McWicked drawing the 6-hole last week without having early speed or knowing that Takter is prepping his trotters and won’t be gunning from an outside post without big money on the line.)

5. A favorite that doesn’t put up a strong last quarter to finish his miles. Just because he can finish in 28.3 after a hot pace doesn’t mean he will finish in 27.0 after a slow to moderate pace.

6. A favorite that lost last time despite having a perfect trip. If he didn’t have an excuse, then don’t give him one, especially at short odds.

The key is to identify these situations and figure out how to maximize your returns. If you think a chalk is vulnerable, but you think he will likely hit the board, then maybe a multi-leg wager is best. If you think the fav might not hit the board, then go for a tri or super.
Good points Bacon! One of my favorite anti favorite angles is to simply bet against any favorite that doesn't figure to leave the gate and has post 6, 7, 8 on a half mile track, or an outside post on a five eighths track. You have to be nuts to bet a favorite that you think is going to try to win from off the pace. I see them get beat all the time.
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Old 06-22-2018, 02:18 PM   #20
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That’s another good one, Pandy.

BTW - I read your articles and selections all the time. I appreciate your M1 picks and comments; it keeps me grounded in thought and alerts me when I may have overlooked something. Thank you!
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Old 06-22-2018, 02:33 PM   #21
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Another angle is that WEG shippers racing first time at M1 typically outperform their previous numbers. And M1 shippers racing first time at Mohawk usually don’t live up to their M1 numbers.

I haven’t a solid conclusion for why this is true. Perhaps it is for one or many of the following reasons:

1. WEG horses may be in better shape because many are accustomed to “two move” racing, having to sprint hard to establish position to the first turn and then save something for the homestretch.

2. The outer tier flow is often poor at Mohawk and good at M1, so race lines from Mohawk might not be truly representative of what the horse can do with a good trip.

3. The different driving colonies at each track. (?)

4. More horses appear to be in contention at M1 because of lively flow.

5. The weather is often warmer at M1.

6. Track configuration and dimensions. (Are the turns tighter at Mohawk?)

The top tier horses won’t see as much of a difference between tracks because they are in better shape anyway.
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