In-Depth Study of Wagering Performance

[markgoldie]

Every now and then, I complete a review of my wagering action, just to see where and how I'm making or losing money. (By the way, for any possible newbies out there- record keeping is as essential as anything you will ever do. You critique yourself so to speak and this can lead to maximizing good situations and eliminating the bad ones.)

Anyway, for the first time, I was struck by something- namely that I make almost all my major scores on what I would loosely call "angle" plays. Before discussing this, let me back up a second for some background.

When I was a kid just starting out with my fascination with horse-race handicapping, I thought the word "angle" was a dirty one. It almost seemed like cheating to me. Playing angles wouldn't be for me. No sir. I was destined to crack the entire code. I mean by that, I was out to be a better overall handicapper than the rest of the players. I would beat the game because I could look at a race- any race- and analyze it better than the wagering competion. Hence, I would be able to play anything, in any situation, and show a profit.

Naturally, it wasn't all that easy and I paid some dues along the way. My best results seemed to come from certain tracks that I knew well. I learned to take careful trip notes and to apply them in my handicapping. Somewhere along the line, I developed a love for what is generally called the "chaos" race. Others may define it differently, but my definition of a true chaos race is one in which you cannot plausibly predict any likely outcome. While such events are rare, when they came up, I took advantage by boxing large number of horses in the trifecta. I made considerable money in these situations. I still do, although I like what I called "modified chaos" much better. This is the race in which 5 or 6 horses are totally interchangeable, but the others are solid eliminations.

At any rate, I digress somewhat. Along the way, I came to realize that there were certain recurring situations which proved profitable over the long haul. Essentially, these were angles, although I mentally refrained from using that dreaded word. But I was still trying my best to out-handicap the handicappers.

The next major change came when I was able to get large rebates on my wagers- a great deal more than these standard ADWs are giving. How and why that came about isn't important. What is important is that the rebates rekindled my desire to simply grind out a better overall handicapping strategy such that I could play every race and take the rebate (at the least) profits. The idea was to play any track, any race, and just reap the rewards.

Although this approach can be made to work, it has become more and more evident that the efforts are spotty and subject to long periods of losing- even with rebates. Months ago, I began scaling back on the number of tracks I play- keeping the profitable ones and eliminating the marginal and losing ones. Not being automated was a prime mover in this calculation. When you use paper and pen, it takes time and the sheer amount of time can lead to inaccuracies. As an aside, I still very firmly believe that the proper program can do everything that you do by paper and pen. But that ability remains far out of my reach and is a subject of another long, protracted discussion.

Getting back to the main subject matter: I have now come to realize that my best results come from what may loosely be called a collection of angles. Yes. The dreaded word is actually the prime mover of profits.

Since we're all friends here, I'll list a few that come to me immediately (and that can be explained easily):

(1) Speed horses adding lasix at 8-1 odds or better.
(2) Horses changing barns (trainer) at 8-1 odds or better. This, of course, is most usually first-out after being claimed.
(3) First lifetime start at odds of 8-1 or better.
(4) First start of a horse's 3 year old career. Odds of 6-1 or better. (Some refinements add to this angle)
(5) Horse is adding trotting hobbles. Odds of 6-1 or better.
(6) Horse shows a sharply improved line after getting over a breaking problem. Any odds.
(7) Horse is coming to a new track even if staying with same trainer. Odds of 8-1 or better.
(8) Horse explodes in stretch after being blocked. Any odds.
(9) Green horse showing two consecutive improving lines. Any odds.
(10) First lifetime "cutting" of a mile with a reasonable result. Any odds.
(11) First recent cutting of a mile (any age horse) with a reasonable finish. Odds of 6-1 or better.
(12) First off a layoff of 2 months or more with a good close in the qualifier. Odds of 6-1 or better.

Note: When I say "any odds," the assumption is that the wagering public will underestimate such horses' chances in nearly all situations. Therefore, you can bet these no matter the price. Also, when I state odds (like 8-1 or better), it doesn't mean that I will not carefully consider the possibility that the horse may be a great value at a lower odds than that. It just means that you can automatically use the horse at such odds.

Even though I am a gimmick bettor, I use roughly the stated odds as an indicator of when to use the horse as a "key" in the gimmicks.

There are probably as many elimination or bet-against angles and maybe I'll discuss them at a later time. And again, there are more complicated bet-on angles that require more explanation than I currently want to tackle.

At any rate, share the love here. Give me some of your tested positive angles in return.

Mark

[Ray2000]

Great post, thx Mark

My best is betting a trifecta gimmick against an odds-on favorite showing a tendency to break at least 20 percent of the time. (1 in 5 pplines, count qualifiers). Handicap the race as if the fav is scratched, with emphasis on each of the contender's ITM percentage. Look for best shot to place and show. Buy these trifectas

Placer, Shower, All
Placer, All, Shower
Shower, Placer, All
All, Placer, Shower

This covers all outcomes if you're right on the placer and shower. If that breaker stays flat you still have a decent chance to recover your bet. If he jumps, you might do a little jumping yourself.

[melman]

Hey Mark I think u stole all my angles. I've posted before that I love the 3rd start back from a long layoff. Not every one of course but horses that have shown ability prior that have been "given a couple". But my really big deal that I adore is shippers. The more that a track has the more I play that track. Anything that's going to confuse the issue. I could not agree with u more about "great handicapper". You can keep that title all I want is to make cash. Your from my area and I pretty sure I have met u back in the day when I went to the track all the time. Down at the old "Wine" with Abe S. Man that guy could get them ready. Right outta the box ready to roll. I love the style of "Moe" who I think you might have met or know of. A HUGE player who has many many times taken down an entire super pool. He loves his tri's and supers. Of course with a big rebate. Some people like to be critic's and say he is betting like he is in a "supermarket". Meaning he covers so many numbers. Moe likes to move when he thinks the fav is a phony. Even more so when the fav and 2nd fav are both overbet. Likes to bet that horses who won there last start with "perfect trips" will not win there next start. I have seen some of your posted tri plays and they remind me of him.

[markgoldie]

Originally Posted by melman

Hey Mark I think u stole all my angles. I've posted before that I love the 3rd start back from a long layoff. Not every one of course but horses that have shown ability prior that have been "given a couple". But my really big deal that I adore is shippers. The more that a track has the more I play that track. Anything that's going to confuse the issue. I could not agree with u more about "great handicapper". You can keep that title all I want is to make cash. Your from my area and I pretty sure I have met u back in the day when I went to the track all the time. Down at the old "Wine" with Abe S. Man that guy could get them ready. Right outta the box ready to roll. I love the style of "Moe" who I think you might have met or know of. A HUGE player who has many many times taken down an entire super pool. He loves his tri's and supers. Of course with a big rebate. Some people like to be critic's and say he is betting like he is in a "supermarket". Meaning he covers so many numbers. Moe likes to move when he thinks the fav is a phony. Even more so when the fav and 2nd fav are both overbet. Likes to bet that horses who won there last start with "perfect trips" will not win there next start. I have seen some of your posted tri plays and they remind me of him.

Hey Mel:

I'm sure we have met many of the same people over the years. My problem these days is that I can't remember what I had for breakfast yesterday, let alone all the people I ran across in past years. Yes. I spent a lot of time in the clubhouse of Brandywine, although I preferred the grandstand at Liberty Bell. Problem with their clubhouse was that it was so far away from the actual track, being three stories up.

You probably remember Delaware Babe, who was a whale in more ways than one. Anyway, even though Brandywine was an hour drive through terrible traffic, I liked it the most. Old Roy Schudt and HEEEERE THEY COME... THERE THEY GOOOOO! Seems like another lifetime.

[LottaKash]

Yikes !...I did know you guys back then....Remember me, I was the one who always had a beer in my hand, always.... I had been to Brandy and LB, more times than I can remember....In fact my days at Brandy go back to when it was still a 1/2-miler..

Many memories at those places....Miss it much...

best,