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Old 02-24-2018, 09:03 PM   #31
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I like to use 2-3 lines to get a read on how the horse runs - don't want to pick a line that is aberrant.

That's why I still think the best program ever was Sartin' KGen.
Sartin used to recommend that, If I remember correctly. Using more than one paceline when one looks too good.
Very smart move by you using CJ's adjusted with Sartin. Looks like it works pretty good.
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Old 02-24-2018, 09:26 PM   #32
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Most accomplished horse in the race...best speed figures...top trainer/jockey connections...steady works...great trainer layoff percentage...worthwhile purse...and yet the horse goes off at DOUBLE the odds of any other other race of its past performances. And it looked like a loser even before the fatal breakdown.

A game of "inside information", to be sure.
that IS the problem...ain't it...one THE reasons I've quit wagering unless the race is 500k or more...and even then...sometimes intentions are dubious if there's another one coming up....
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Old 02-25-2018, 01:11 AM   #33
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that IS the problem...ain't it...one THE reasons I've quit wagering unless the race is 500k or more...and even then...sometimes intentions are dubious if there's another one coming up....
Timeform had the race pretty even figure wise among 4-5 horses. The winner never did much winning while burning a lot of money. He tripped out and won, but I hardly think this race was anything other than straight forward.
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Old 02-25-2018, 01:26 AM   #34
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Timeform had the race pretty even figure wise among 4-5 horses. The winner never did much winning while burning a lot of money. He tripped out and won, but I hardly think this race was anything other than straight forward.
I always find it disheartening when you get a good group of horses and they don't actually race the whole distance. Those were joke fractions for G3 older males, but that is often racing these days I guess.
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Old 02-25-2018, 10:50 AM   #35
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I always find it disheartening when you get a good group of horses and they don't actually race the whole distance. Those were joke fractions for G3 older males, but that is often racing these days I guess.
In my opinion is that this group of riders from NY ride everything like turf races, so getting legit fractions is always going to be a crap shoot.

I only looked at the race(s) at GP because it was in a contest. I refuse to bet there with all the timing and malfeasances that are going on.
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Old 02-25-2018, 12:48 PM   #36
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I always find it disheartening when you get a good group of horses and they don't actually race the whole distance. Those were joke fractions for G3 older males, but that is often racing these days I guess.
What I find more troublesome for me is a race like the 11th yesterday, won by Uncle B. How did that horse go off at even money, and then ran like it. He was a marginal contender but was just bet like a sure thing.
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Old 02-25-2018, 11:02 PM   #37
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Most accomplished horse in the race...best speed figures...top trainer/jockey connections...steady works...great trainer layoff percentage...worthwhile purse...and yet the horse goes off at DOUBLE the odds of any other other race of its past performances. And it looked like a loser even before the fatal breakdown.

A game of "inside information", to be sure.
Sorry for the redboarding here, but I'm very surprised at what the thoughts were on Send it In coming into this race. I thought he'd actually end up near 8-1 and in my bets I didn't give him a thought, until I saw how "low" his odds were to me & figured I'd throw him in some exotics because it looked like he was taking a lot of potentially smart money. Thought this was a clear prep, he's done his best work over 2 turns, and coming off a long layoff & such a big performance it'd be tough to approach such an outlier like that.

It's a very unfair comment to suggest "they" knew there was something wrong with this horse, especially wrong enough to put the horse & jockeys in danger like that. It's awful what the end result was, and always a red-flag raiser when after extended injury rehab, but sometimes s*** just happens.

For the record, I played Malagacy over Tower of Texas in this race so I didn't have any genius opinions on the front end either.
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Old 02-25-2018, 11:09 PM   #38
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What I find more troublesome for me is a race like the 11th yesterday, won by Uncle B. How did that horse go off at even money, and then ran like it. He was a marginal contender but was just bet like a sure thing.
After scratches the 8-1 ML was obviously a pipe dream, but figured 3-1 was a lot more likely a price, I could not believe this horse was bet like an even money shot in every single pool back & forth. My first thought when the race was over was if horses like this go off & win at even money, it will be impossible to ever make money in this game. Had some obvious angles, but that was some betting like the race had been run already.

Of course we all notice when the money like this is right, on the flip side I saw some other favorites who I thought were insanely overbet at GP in the last few days who didn't run a step. I see more inexplicable odds at GP than any other major meet in the country, don't know why they have such a hold on craziness in many ways but seems that they do.
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:48 AM   #39
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In my opinion is that this group of riders from NY ride everything like turf races, so getting legit fractions is always going to be a crap shoot.

I only looked at the race(s) at GP because it was in a contest. I refuse to bet there with all the timing and malfeasances that are going on.
This!
I seldom bet NYRA. but with the chokers in Florida, I have been looking at this this winter. I'm thinking at some point they will put together a decent card on a fast track with horse or two.
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Old 02-28-2018, 01:23 PM   #40
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I always find it disheartening when you get a good group of horses and they don't actually race the whole distance. Those were joke fractions for G3 older males, but that is often racing these days I guess.
The race was a bit of a train wreck.

Malagacy got off badly and then was bad after making the lead.

Conquest Big E kind of hopped at the start, didn't get into right away, then got checked along the inside trying.

Send it In broke down just as the race was picking up.

Irish War Cry was ridden passively most likely to avoid getting involved with Malagacy.

When Economic Model has the lead turning for home you sort of know the pace had to be slow. I'm glad I didn't get involved because of all the layoffs. I wouldn't have been on the winner if I was forced to make a play.
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Old 02-28-2018, 02:33 PM   #41
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Seemed Send It iN was a bit cold on the board from inside info(arguably the 4th underlay in the race after the fact)
Seemed like everyone had committed to including Conquest Big E off a good morning line value, and ended up going to far sending off at an underlay. Had a long shot chance.

Malagacy had attractive paper form, and was initially the horse I gravitated to, until I watched the comeback effort on video. Really bad effort, and only managed to be with the race flow. This was a bad underlay in the HH. Had no real chance.

Irish War Cry was an underlay because of the triple crown name recognition. At least he was actually a contender.

Economic Model was a contender and was the one who ended up being the most value/ forgotten on the board.


Race had 3 or 4 underlays!! But could have easily gone to Irish War Cry and been negligible value.
Not a race you want to focus your day on, but it turned out OK for a part of a mulit-race sequence.
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Old 03-06-2018, 03:44 PM   #42
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The race was a bit of a train wreck.

Malagacy got off badly and then was bad after making the lead.

Conquest Big E kind of hopped at the start, didn't get into right away, then got checked along the inside trying.

Send it In broke down just as the race was picking up.

Irish War Cry was ridden passively most likely to avoid getting involved with Malagacy.

When Economic Model has the lead turning for home you sort of know the pace had to be slow. I'm glad I didn't get involved because of all the layoffs. I wouldn't have been on the winner if I was forced to make a play.
It has been a pattern lately for Paul Pompas horses he has had two now that have taken a lot of time off or have had a lot of time in between races albeit two different trainers. I was at the track and send it in didn't look one bit on his toes either in the paddock or on the track. Connect was retired to stud after a soft tissue injury. No one ever wants to see a horse breakdown like this one did but I have to question the long layoff and the competitive field they brought him back to run against.
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