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Old 02-08-2018, 05:19 PM   #61
barahona44
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With today's big drops, both the Dow and S & P 500 have entered the 10 percent correction mode , the first in two years, which is a longer interval than normal.The usual interval is about 11 1/2 months.
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Old 02-09-2018, 11:24 AM   #62
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I don’t think this is the big drop but I do think returns on stocks over the next ten years is going to be mid single digits. This has been the best bull market since I started investing back in early 80’s and anyone expecting returns like the last ten years is nuts.

Somewhere in that time period (10 years) there will be a recession or two and if this little correction gave you the willies and made you want to sell, don’t be in the market. I expect at some point there will be a drop closer to 40% (as the market overshoots to the downside as it always does) and taking permanent impairments to your wealth when that happens will be disaterous.

If the market ever goes to zero, you will have bigger problems than money. Despite the nutty stuff you hear during a serious sell off, it doesn’t actually happen. Learn to take a punch without panicking and the next ten years will be okay. Not great. But okay.
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Old 02-09-2018, 11:27 AM   #63
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If the market ever goes to zero, you will have bigger problems than money. Despite the nutty stuff you hear during a serious sell off, it doesnít actually happen. Learn to take a punch without panicking and the next ten years will be okay. Not great. But okay.
This is probably some of the best advice I've seen posted here, and I totally agree with you.

Oh, and pay attention to friends, family and neighbors. When THEY start bailing during a market drop, you know it's getting very near the time to BUY.
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Old 02-09-2018, 01:02 PM   #64
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Oh, and pay attention to friends, family and neighbors. When THEY start bailing during a market drop, you know it's getting very near the time to BUY.
Exactly! And when you hear supermarket bag boys talking about how they want to get into the market (I did), it's time to SELL!

I made a little money selling TWTR at it's high yesterday morning on the "irrational exuberance." I have very little exposure now - waiting for what PA said to get back in for a bargain or two.
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Old 02-09-2018, 01:16 PM   #65
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In Feb 2000, literally every other TV at Gulfstream Park was tuned into CNBC.
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Old 02-09-2018, 01:56 PM   #66
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In Feb 2000, literally every other TV at Gulfstream Park was tuned into CNBC.
That was the height of the lunacy. I think everyone knew a crash was coming, but many had been saying that for much of 1999.
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Old 02-09-2018, 03:04 PM   #67
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market went down to its 200 day moving average and it got bought. the people that bought today are going to get toasted and roasted!
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Old 02-09-2018, 05:48 PM   #68
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A friend of mine claims his firm is expecting THREE rate hikes in 2018. I politely told him they had better re-think their strategy. The markets couldn't handle it. Too bad we can't bet over/unders on rate hikes for this year; if the posted number was 3, I'd hammer the under.
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Old 02-09-2018, 05:54 PM   #69
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Not only three, but one of the reasons the market started tanking was because given the labor stats and wage growth numbers lately, some people who think about such things were contemplating the real threat of a FOURTH rate hike this year...so why would three be so out of the question if they were already pondering a fourth, given the economic numbers coming out as of late?
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:03 PM   #70
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A friend of mine claims his firm is expecting THREE rate hikes in 2018. I politely told him they had better re-think their strategy. The markets couldn't handle it. Too bad we can't bet over/unders on rate hikes for this year; if the posted number was 3, I'd hammer the under.
Fed funds futures are a proxy for the number of hikes, so you can effectively bet on or against the number of hikes.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:22 PM   #71
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Iíd take the over on 3 assuming I got a no bet on that exact number.

You have added stimulus through the tax package to an already good economy. Someone has to be the adult in the room (or pee in the punch bowl if you prefer that analogy).

I assume this economy is good and only going to get better. If that assumption is correct, the Fed will need to tighten a lot to keep a lid on inflation. Even if 4 raises this year is wrong and itís only 3, itís not as if theyíll stop in 2019.

The 2/10 spread has widened recently after flattening all last year. That isnít a sign of slowing growth. They need to be on top of this. The full effects of the tax package isnít going to hit the real economy for a good while yet.
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Old 02-09-2018, 07:35 PM   #72
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Old 02-10-2018, 03:01 PM   #73
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This is probably some of the best advice I've seen posted here, and I totally agree with you.

Oh, and pay attention to friends, family and neighbors. When THEY start bailing during a market drop, you know it's getting very near the time to BUY.
I never understand why people get spooked and want to sell on a drop. Buy low and sell high! I spend a little time each day checking out a forum called bogleheads.com, named after the CEO of Vanguard, Jack Bogle. For months I have been reading comments, almost arrogant comments, by Bogleheads saying to maintain a three-fund portfolio and never waver. During the past week I have been reading threads about whether the Bogleheads should "rebalance." The psychology of never wavering is much easier until you get that punch. I am 52 percent cash in my 457 and IRA. Let's go down some more so my buy signals are activated.
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