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Old 02-08-2018, 10:14 PM   #16
garyscpa
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Stuff like this is why we come to this site. Intelligent analysis by others.
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Old 02-12-2018, 08:29 PM   #17
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2/10/18 Sam F Davis Stakes, 8.5F, Tampa Bay Downs

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20180210&RN=10

Timeform Figures 1/4-107 1/2-107 3/4-113 1m-119 Final Fig-121

Analysis - Flameaway: Ridden aggressively out of the gate to get the lead set a slow measured pace (blue fractions) and finished well to earn a solid final time, with a 118 final figure. Non Triple Crown nominated colt (trainer says was an oversight) surprised field off his avg turf form. Hard to be excited about his prospect though, maybe he is this good but just another easy front running 3yo I want to bet against next out.

Catholic Boy: I thought he ran a great race. I see many have been a bit critical because he did not go by the longshot front runner. He was wide on the slow pace first turn, not a big deal, but wide on the fast paced (turn time) far turn while passing horses is just not an ideal trip. Combine that with the fact this is a prep, not the end game, and to me this just feels exactly like a race I would want with a much bigger prize as an end game. There is this feeling anymore though when you lose you just must not be as good as people thought.

Vino Rosso: Similar to Catholic Boy I would not be too disappointed if I was his connections. Tough setup to overcome and he was finding it late. He did have a better trip than Catholic Boy. I also think he got little out of the last race crawl fest that he won in a jog, so he may have been a little short.

Hollywood Star: I dont know what to make of this horse, I have always been high on him but he really was very blah in this race, tough setup and all. Maybe he is better as a late running sprinter?

There is a replay here, will update if one becomes available on Youtube.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/sam-f-davis

Attached Images
File Type: png Davis.png (55.3 KB, 4 views)

Last edited by cj; 02-21-2018 at 09:18 AM.
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Old 02-12-2018, 08:47 PM   #18
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2/10/18 San Vicente, 7F, Santa Anita

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180210&RN=6

Timeform Figures 1/4-146 1/2-134 3/4-123 Final Fig-116

Analysis - Kanthanka: Normally I would not have a 7F race in a Derby prep section but this race has produced some Derby horses in Nyquist and Silver Charm. I rated Kantanka with a punchers chance should a melt down occur, probably underestimated his maiden win as he had trouble, but a great setup as well. While he was captializing on the collapsing pace around the turn it was still fast, rather have a horse do that than it be much slower than par. He made such a big turn move he tired pretty good late. His breeding to me is suspect going longer and that turn move just screams sprinter. I can't toss him at this point but I would eliminate him in most cases going long next time and try to use his action to increase my positive expectation on the race.

Nero: He ran the best race, and its actually not that close. He actually earned the better TUS figure, 118-116 against the winner. But I think all that is secondary. Nero, heard about this colt back in May or so. But horse is a headcase, supposedly he can just turn off when you ask him to really run, or hit him. In this race though, after being gutted by those fractions Ezpinosa really got into him, and he didnt quit, if anything he stayed on in remarkable fashion. If this horse has turned the corner he is very dangerous. I am not sure I play him next out as everyone will know he ran a great race, just saying this a talented colt.

All Out Blitz: Too bad he showed up here and not going long against a middling field as off his last race as stated in another thread he pretty much had no shot. 9/1 or 10% of the pool is only half the track takeout so his elimination from this field didnt help to much in playing the race.

Ax Man: Broke step slow, rushed up into suicide pace, collapsed. Feels like a betable horse in the right spot next time to me.


Race Replay

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File Type: png sanvicente.png (54.1 KB, 7 views)

Last edited by cj; 02-12-2018 at 08:56 PM.
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Old 02-12-2018, 10:54 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
2/10/18 Sam F Davis Stakes, 8.5F, Tampa Bay Downs

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20180210&RN=10

Timeform Figures 1/4-107 1/2-107 3/4-113 1m-119 Final Fig-121

Analysis - Flameaway: Ridden aggressively out of the gate to get the lead set a slow measured pace (blue fractions) and finished well to earn a solid final time, with a 118 final figure. Non Triple Crown nominated colt (trainer says was an oversight) surprised field off his avg turf form. Hard to be excited about his prospect though, maybe he is this good but just another easy front running 3yo I want to bet against next out.

Catholic Boy: I thought he ran a great race. I see many have been a bit critical because he did not go by the longshot front runner. He was wide on the slow pace first turn, not a big deal, but wide on the fast paced (turn time) far turn while passing horses is just not an ideal trip. Combine that with the fact this is a prep, not the end game, and to me this just feels exactly like a race I would want with a much bigger prize as an end game. There is this feeling anymore though when you lose you just must not be as good as people thought.

Vino Rosso: Similar to Catholic Boy I would not be too disappointed if I was his connections. Tough setup to overcome and he was finding it late. He did have a better trip than Catholic Boy. I also think he got little out of the last race crawl fest that he won in a jog, so he may have been a little short.

Hollywood Star: I dont know what to make of this horse, I have always been high on him but he really was very blah in this race, tough setup and all. Maybe he is better as a late running sprinter?


I could not find a full race replay on youtube.
Race Replay
https://youtu.be/bEsbcaKRw-s

There is a replay here, will update if one becomes available on Youtube.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/sam-f-davis
I bet this race and would have gotten a 7-1 return no matter whose nose was in front but I was astonished how well this one ran. You go straight to the lead and hold off a well regarded horse prep or no prep and turf to dirt, you have done something. That was impressive. Good old fashioned blood and guts win. Bet against? I bet against all these 3yos when they turn 2-1 or less!
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Old 02-12-2018, 11:35 PM   #20
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I bet this race and would have gotten a 7-1 return no matter whose nose was in front but I was astonished how well this one ran. You go straight to the lead and hold off a well regarded horse prep or no prep and turf to dirt, you have done something. That was impressive. Good old fashioned blood and guts win. Bet against? I bet against all these 3yos when they turn 2-1 or less!
I agree to a certain extent, long term this horse could be any kind. I just look to bet against these types off that running line, but heck they throw him to the wolves he is going to still be a pretty good price so guess we can cross that bridge next time.
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Old 02-17-2018, 06:20 PM   #21
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Snapper Sinclair: This horse is the value coming out of this race. He set legit fractions and held right to the end only beaten a few lengths. While the fractions are not coded red, the pace was fast, but so was the finish, with that in mind this horse ran a super race. I am not sure he can beat the top one but I think he offers value in the next race and would love to see him avoid the top one.
What a painful beat....it was just a 20 dollar win bet but man....ouch
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Old 02-17-2018, 08:25 PM   #22
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What a painful beat....it was just a 20 dollar win bet but man....ouch
Brutal beat.
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Old 02-17-2018, 11:43 PM   #23
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GMB@BP that stinks!

I backed my way into this one again this week by wimping out on my selection! I thought the winner had a solid fig and finish vs a solid pace and was a Calumet but wussed out and decided to key off the favorite with . underneath as value. Was going to play even pay exactas between the two but at 20-1 played $14 win on and $10 exacta ($1 was saying $28) with a few break even hedges with those two on top.

Boy I sure wish I would have connected with you about the placer beforehand.

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Old 02-18-2018, 12:35 AM   #24
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Old 02-18-2018, 01:06 AM   #25
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What a bad race - all bets against next time for me.
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Old 02-18-2018, 09:45 AM   #26
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What a bad race - all bets against next time for me.
I think the slow pace compromised Instilled Regard and Noble Indy. Any time you see the closers look like they are running on a treadmill in the stretch after slow fractions, throw the race out.
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Old 02-18-2018, 09:57 AM   #27
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I think the slow pace compromised Instilled Regard and Noble Indy. Any time you see the closers look like they are running on a treadmill in the stretch after slow fractions, throw the race out.
Looking at the charts for the day, and its not often to have so many route races to compare from good horses, unless the track changed the pace was Average.

Just think maybe Hollendorfer took the last month easy with the horse, 2 straight ships, whatever he just was a bit dull. Let see what happens next time, but if I was his connections I would look to stay at home and see what happens.

The race was definitely slowing down, there should have been someone closing in that race, so while I wont entirely knock the top 4 the horses, behind those flat out where bad, and i have no idea what happened to Pincipe.
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Old 02-18-2018, 08:58 PM   #28
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Looking at the charts for the day, and its not often to have so many route races to compare from good horses, unless the track changed the pace was Average.

Just think maybe Hollendorfer took the last month easy with the horse, 2 straight ships, whatever he just was a bit dull. Let see what happens next time, but if I was his connections I would look to stay at home and see what happens.

The race was definitely slowing down, there should have been someone closing in that race, so while I wont entirely knock the top 4 the horses, behind those flat out where bad, and i have no idea what happened to Pincipe.
If I understand cj's speed figure system (posted in the other thread), Instilled Regard regressed at least a couple of lengths in that race. And he was beaten by a horse that he had beaten when the pace was faster last time out. So I am inclined to think he was compromised by the slow pace. I am skeptical that a :24 quarter mile is a "normal" pace over there, but it is possible you are right and I am wrong.

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Old 02-19-2018, 10:55 AM   #29
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I know in my write up from the La Comte stakes I really thought Zing Zang running line was a bit dressed up, basically passed the ones who couldn’t run much. That being said I want to bet against Mourinho off his last race. I also want to play against Sporting Chance.

It feels like Zing Zang or Combatant, and the post on Combatant is not so hot and he will likely be lower than 6/1. Anything around 15/1 would be very fair on Zing Zang.
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Old 02-19-2018, 06:53 PM   #30
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That was a hell of a ride by Kent D. on My Boy Jack.
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