Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 09-27-2017, 12:57 PM   #1
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,387
Rep Power: 21 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
Is This a good Longshot?

I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 01:26 PM   #2
TheOracle
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,037
Rep Power: 6 TheOracle will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.

Hey Jay,

I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)




Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta

You never know
TheOracle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 01:38 PM   #3
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,631
Rep Power: 10 AndyC will become famous soon enoughAndyC will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
If what you write is true, why would the horse be a longshot? There has got to be more to the story. Rarely do horses that are tops in figs end up being longshots.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 01:43 PM   #4
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,387
Rep Power: 21 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 02:03 PM   #5
Whosonfirst
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: USA
Posts: 792
Rep Power: 10 Whosonfirst will become famous soon enoughWhosonfirst will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I will try to find 1 horse every day at 10-1 or longer, would love to have comments on if people agree or disagree.

Belmont Race #8:

Like the here at 20-1. Has ran a speed figure against allowance competition, in a sprint on the turf, that is tops in the field. Gets Rosario who has been winning a lot of races recently, and has the highest late figure in his last race.
So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.
__________________
Predicting the outcome of a horse race is an activity that exerts continuing appeal to the extraordinarily opulent. It is intellectually lucrative albeit fiscally ruinous.-Richard Epstein
Whosonfirst is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 02:12 PM   #6
Nutz and Boltz
Mad as hell !
 
Nutz and Boltz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Bridgeport, CT
Posts: 765
Rep Power: 4 Nutz and Boltz will become famous soon enoughNutz and Boltz will become famous soon enough
I'm thinking that Manoffire may be too far back early to win here.
__________________
.... And, I trust No One !
Nutz and Boltz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 02:21 PM   #7
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,387
Rep Power: 21 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
So he has one race in a year and manages to lose by 4-1/4L's from PP#12. With 10 horses all within 4 l's, it must have been a cavalry charge. I'd be watching for anything unusual on the tote board. Were they really trying with him in his return @ 38-1? The at 15-1 ML comes out of same race and had a solid bump near the wire while closing to 1-3/4 L's. Many returnees coming out of that race. Sometimes it pays to look at who didn't come out of that same race. But I like your thinking.
Funny you mention the in that race, i have him as my second horse.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 02:52 PM   #8
Nutz and Boltz
Mad as hell !
 
Nutz and Boltz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Bridgeport, CT
Posts: 765
Rep Power: 4 Nutz and Boltz will become famous soon enoughNutz and Boltz will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Using Brisnet PPs, top figure was earned 6 races back, with Rosario as the jockey

That 6th race back was over 2 years ago. If healthy, I'd take the one horse in this race. A lot of layoff lines showing, though. The nine horse is dropping to state bred competition.
__________________
.... And, I trust No One !

Last edited by Nutz and Boltz; 09-27-2017 at 02:58 PM.
Nutz and Boltz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 02:56 PM   #9
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,387
Rep Power: 21 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nutz and Boltz View Post
That 6th race back was over 2 years ago.
You are right, my thinking is it just proves that the basic requirement to win this race is there.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 07:18 PM   #10
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,387
Rep Power: 21 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
Closed again, either needs more pace or a drop in class. In the end was not a good bet.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-27-2017, 08:22 PM   #11
n.c
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 211
Rep Power: 2 n.c is on a distinguished road
reason i would have avoided the 4 is

the fact that all other horses seem to be in way better condition...
personally i would have keyed Jason Servis horse, at 6-1 at the top 2 spots, but it finished 3rd

Servis the ttrainer a plus
horse 5 out of 6 in the money at Belmont
2 for 2 hitting the board at this distance
Servis horse threw a clunker last time out, so the horse will be better prepared.
n.c is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2017, 12:15 AM   #12
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,387
Rep Power: 21 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
Is This A Good Longshot?

Belmont Race #8: 9/28/17

Smile Big 10-1

Does not need the lead and the speed in this race looks suspect. Rudy and Ortiz have won a few races together. Had this filly going in the right direction, then was put on the turf and never got involved. Gets back on the dirt and the favorite is taking a very suspicious drop in class.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2017, 12:43 AM   #13
thaskalos
"Awake!"
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 20,283
Rep Power: 40 thaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to behold
A separate thread for each longshot? Seems excessive.
__________________
"It frustrates me to be wrong when I know I'm right."
-- Moliere
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2017, 12:56 AM   #14
VigorsTheGrey
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 3,646
Rep Power: 7 VigorsTheGrey will become famous soon enoughVigorsTheGrey will become famous soon enough
Did you guys notice Fairy Link in the 4th today?
Krist nailed him with a 15-1 ML...! Good Guy...
http://www.kristpicks.com/

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

Joe has been hot lately too...Same agent as Jose who is out with sore knee...Look for Joe to boot more sleepers in soon....

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 09-28-2017 at 12:59 AM.
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-28-2017, 10:54 AM   #15
TheOracle
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 2,037
Rep Power: 6 TheOracle will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Hey Jay,

I looked at that race also, J C Englehart's horses have been pretty tough on the Turf at Belmont when going less than 1 Mile (Sprints)




Maybe you play him with the 7 and hopefully catch the exacta

You never know
J C Englehart really disappointed me in that race



Of course I didn't have Isotope in the 3rd
TheOracle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Meet Sheet Factors
ITM% - 20.00%
1 Vote
WIN% - 40.00%
2 Votes
Total Earnings - 0%
0 Votes
Earnings Per Start (@Meet) - 40.00%
2 Votes
Total Votes: 5
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.