Horses of Interest

[BETA]

Apr 21st Results:
0 for 1 based on minimum odds requirement at/near post (WO/Race7 - #3)
0 for 1 (KEE/Race7 - #2…. Made play as odds briefly drifted up to 6/1 near “OFF”)

YTD: 0 for 5

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 22nd…. 1 Potential Play:

Play is at HAW/Race7 (7:14pm central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” Stakes Race (IL Bred only) for fillies and mares sprinting 6.5 furlongs on dirt…. The #7, Dandy Gal, has an “A+” contender grade and is third choice on the ML at 7/2…. She draws an outside post and her late (closing) running style should be a benefit in this race loaded with early speed…. Last race at OP has the look of a “prep” as she was returning from a lengthy layoff facing much, much better…. Dandy Gal does her best work at HAW as super trainer, Scott Becker, reunites her with patient rider, Carlos Marquez…expect game plan to be similar to race three back where Marquez makes a late run from well off the early pace. The main danger is the Brad Cox horse (#3) who will also likely be rated and make first run and get the jump on Dandy Gal? Even though I’m projecting this race to fall apart late; more often than not, the one-run rally types don’t get to the wire first…. However, I will back Dandy Gal 3/1 or higher….
Other contenders =
#2 My Mertie (MLO 9/5) – Grade C
#3 Game Time Decision (MLO 3/1) – Grade A- (upgraded from C to A based on projected pace scenario)


BOL!

For anyone interested, I've attached "generic" PDF worksheets:
Note: Based loosely on pari-mutuel “pool” size….
CUST(A) = A Tracks; CUST(B) = B Tracks; and CUST(C) = C Tracks

[BETA]

Apr 22nd Results:
Yikes…. Another Loser!

YTD: 0 for 6

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 23rd…. 2 Potential Plays:

First play is at PARX/Race1 (11:55am central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” race (C20k NW2L) for males (3&up) sprinting 6 furlongs on dirt…. The #3, OK Now, has an “A” contender grade and is last choice on the ML at 12/1…. He comes out of a “slow” MDC20k affair; but showed heart by just getting up at wire after slight check at 1/16…. Returns off 22 day layoff and sharp 5f work on Apr 15th…. Horse appears to be overmatched based on unrealistic class jump; but will trust trainer, Keith Nations, for spotting properly as he is 3 for 11 (27%) when 3rd off claim…. Race pace has the look of an early duel meltdown which suits Ok Now’s running style…. This is a bit of a reach but I will gamble at 9/2 or higher….
Other contenders =
#2 Mr. Neetie (MLO 5/2) – Grade B
#4 Time for Quality (MLO 7/2) – Grade C-
#6 Uncle James (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-


Next play is at AQU/Race1 (12:20pm central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” race (C10k) for males (4&up) routing 8 furlongs on dirt…. The #1, Motown Sound, has an “A+” contender grade and is second choice on the ML at 5/2…. Possesses tactical speed and returns off a winning effort 30 days back…. Horse appears to be properly placed for trainer, Ray Handal, as he is 3 for 9 (33%) when 3rd off claim and overall, puts up good numbers for small nine horse stable…. Most importantly, Motown Sound appears to be lone early speed and should have things his own way on front end…. Strong play at 8/5 or higher….
Other contenders =
#4 One Sided (MLO 9/5) – Grade C+
#3 Chelios (MLO 5/1) – Grade C


BOL!

[broker81]

I need for parx racing your details please

[BETA]

Apr 23rd Results:
0 for 2
Post Mortem:
Ok Now (PARX1) was a bad recommendation as early speed duel forecast never materialized…race winner was clearly superior as the “speed of the speed”.

Motown Sound (AQU1) couldn’t relax early as he was repeatedly chocked back during the first ¼ mile…. I don’t think he was good enough to win; but, I wish the jock would have let him run without all the excessive early restraint…. I just hate that type of ride! In contrast, watch the replay and the smooth actions of the race winner…. Lots of “dynamics” to overcome in this game we play….

YTD: 0 for 8

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 25th…. 2 Potential Plays:

First play is at IND/Race8 (4:21pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Chaos” MSW race (Indiana bred) for fillies & mares (3&up) sprinting 5.5 furlongs on dirt…. The #2, Hoppestry, has an “A+” contender grade and is co third choice on the ML at 6/1…. Will back this first time starter (precocious pedigree) for sharp trainer, Aaron West, at 3/1 or higher….
Other Contenders:
(See PDF race summary)


Next play is at WRD/Race9 (4:38pm central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” Stakes race (Texas bred) for 3 yr old males routing 8.3 furlongs on dirt…. The #5, Cummit, has an “A+” contender grade and is third choice on the ML at 7/2…. This “maiden” is shipping in from OP to face winners and despite his 0 for 4 record, should be able to get the job done for Asmussen…. Will back at 9/5 or higher….
Other Contenders:
(See PDF race summary)

BOL!

For anyone interested, I've attached full card "generic" PDF race summaries....

[overthehill]

I find your approach very interesting and informative. i am not surprised that you failed to make a profit seeking overlays on horses that you made 2-1 on the ml. My experience over decades indicates that in most cases when obvious horses do not get their play and especially early play, its because they are not as good as they look on paper. The only exceptions to that I find are situations where there is a name horse or name trainer. who ends up attracting a lot more support than they should. I would say you would be lucky to find a situation like that about once very two weeks!

I think that your type of analysis might lead to profits if you looked at the third or fourth best horse on your value line. and play those when they are completely ignored by the betting public.

I printed out your forms and will take them with me when i do my handicapping of the drf.

if you are so inclined i would appreciate how you distinguish between A+ A and B+ value horses.

for example in the third at ind. today .I see the difference in your top 3. I have your 3rd rated horse R Lady Hansen much closer to the other 2 than you do. based on connections, breedling and likelihood of improvement. so at 6-1 probably a play for me.

[BETA]

Thanks for the feedback…. First, I’m not making an automated value line…. The Morning Line I refer to is published by the track…. The few plays I’m posting are based strictly on the following filters:
An “A+” contender must be > MLO rank 1
An “A” contender must be > MLO rank 2

Then, I use my best judgment to establish a minimum strike rate based on my own handicapping experience taking into consideration pace dynamics, trainer, race replays, (etc.). Please note that I use the “grades” as a starting point only and will not hesitate to revise based on additional handicapping preference/discovery.

Perhaps, the enclosed attachment will give you a better idea? If not, sorry, as that is the extent of the info I will share.

[BETA]

Apr 25th Results:
0 for 1 on qualified plays

YTD: 0 for 9

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 26th Plays:

Nothing today….

If anyone is interested in full card summaries, I’ve moved them to the following website to facilitate a more friendly PDF document size…. All tracks are on one document sorted alphabetically by track and the by Morning Line Odds:

https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home


BOL!

[BETA]

Apr 26th Results:
No Plays

YTD: 0 for 9

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 27th…. 1 Potential Play:

This play is at KEE/Race6 (TURF only @ 2:51pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Chaos” allowance race (4&up) traveling 9 furlongs on turf…. The #7, Sixty Five (FR), has an “A” contender grade and is fourth choice on the ML at 9/2…. Wide open contentious affair; but, will back this first time gelding for sharp trainer, Brad Cox, at 4/1 or higher….
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

BOL!

[BETA]

Apr 27th Results:
No Play (Selection did not meet minimum odds requirement.)

YTD: 0 for 9

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 28th…. 1 Potential Play:

This play is at PRM/Race8 (9:13pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Dominant” stakes race for 3 yr olds sprinting 6 furlongs on dirt…. The #2, Smokin Now, has an “A” contender grade and is fourth choice on the ML at 5/1…. This sprinter typically breaks well and possesses best early speed on a track that usually favors front runners…. Expecting bounce back winning effort off 42 day freshening for sharp connections…. Like this spot for Smokin Now to wire field at 7/2 or higher…. Last two mediocre efforts at OP should help price.
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

BOL!

Note: If referencing Race Summaries, I’ve added an additional column entitled “KARMA” as a supplement to Model 5…. Please read the corresponding PDF for additional explanation.

[BETA]

Apr 28th Results:
No Play (Selection did not meet minimum odds requirement.)

YTD: 0 for 9

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 29th…. 3 Potential Plays:

This play is at Belterra Park/Race2 (12:50pm central)…. This is projected to be an “Orderly” MDC6k race for 3&up sprinting 6 furlongs on dirt…. This is truly the bottom of the barrel and an awful, awful race…. But, the #3, Come On J W, has an “A+” contender grade and is co-fourth choice on the ML at 8/1…. This 5 yr old gelding has been racing exclusively on the synthetic at TP where he compiled a 0/6 record…. However, last race he showed surprising early speed and ran second at 25/1…. Connections are poor and doubt this runner will get much action at window…. Flashing early speed last plus switch to dirt may be wake-up call and will trust contender grade…. Field size of eight so will back at natural odds or higher (7/1 plus).
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

This next play is at GG/Race3 (TURF only @ 3:44pm central)…. This is projected to be an “Orderly” MSW (state bred) race for fillies and mares 3&up traveling 8.5 furlongs on turf…. I can’t believe I’m recommending a 0/16 maiden…. But, the #6, Lethal Legacy, has peaked my interest…. She has an “A+” contender grade and is second choice on the ML at 3/1…. This 4 yr old filly comes out of a very fast race and returns in six days…. I really like her work tab prior to last race…today she’s taking the blinkers off and if she’s ever going to win, this looks like a good spot…. Top jock, Hernandez, takes off which should help price…. I’m backing this horse at 5/2 or higher.
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

This final play is at CD/Race11 (Fast track only @ 10:10pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Chaos” MDC10k race for 3&up fillies and mares sprinting 7 furlongs on dirt…. This is another bottom of the barrel, awful race…. But, the #12, Endless Thyme, has an “A+” contender grade and is co-seventh choice on the ML at 8/1…. This 3 yr old filly has been racing against better at TAM and should carry good conditioning from prior efforts (plus recent sharp work) into this affair…. Blinkers off from one race experiment; still, expecting horse to break well and be forwardly placed as CD is usually kind to early speed when track is labeled “fast”…. 7 furlong distance should help price as this gal has the look of a quitting sprinter (which she most likely is)…. However, will play her at 6/1 or higher.
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home


BOL!

[Bennie]

Parson will be glad to see you like Endless Thyme today as I believe this is a horse he has a "piece" of. I also like his last workout and was going to play him across the board at 5-1/6-1 minimum odds at varied units, ie. 1w-2p-4s. Good luck to you and Parson today.

[BETA]

No official plays at present.... Here's a list of considerations:

PHA3: #3 Discovery Bay
PRM2: #3 Roll Seattle Roll
LS2: #2 Italian Candy
GG3: #1 Krsto Skye
SA3: #7 Best Two Minutes
HST2: #3 Something Better
GP9: #3 Tiger Blood
SA9: #2 Particleacelerator

May be back later with recommendations....

BOL!

[BETA]

Apr 29th Results:
1 for 2 (2 qualified plays w/ one winner…. RE: CD11: #12 paid $14.20)

YTD: 1 for 11 / $22 invested / $14.20 returned / -$7.80 (-36% ROI)

GOAL: 28% Win Percentage with Positive ROI



Apr 30th…. 1 Potential Play:

This play is at SA/Race9 (TURF only @ 7:13pm central)…. This is projected to be a “Chaos” MSW race for 3&up routing 8 furlongs on turf…. This is a very contentious race as most are lightly raced with lots of upside…. The #2, Particleacelerator, has an “A+” contender grade and is third choice on the ML at 5/1…. This 5 yr old gelding is 0/3 lifetime coming off a 64 day layoff for low profile (kind way to say “below average”) trainer, Kenneth Black. Horse sports nice work tab and showed improvement last (w/Blinkers-On) finishing fourth after doing all the dirty work on front end…. Normally would not consider a 5 yr old in this spot; but if offering a decent price, lightly raced horse could improve off decent post draw and third time Tyler Base…. Will play at 5/1 or higher.
Other Contenders:
See PDF race summary located at: https://sites.google.com/site/horseracinganalytics/home

BOL!

[ultracapper]

The 9th at SA 4/30 interests me also, but I don't see it like you. I basically see 3 contenders, with one standing appreciably above the other 2.

I see being the contenders, with being the least likely of the 3, and looking very formidable. is a 5yo that was gone from racing for 2 years and had a 3 week break in his training routine since last raced. That equals "dicey" in my book. He hasn't shown much finish in his past 2 races, which play into the other 2 contenders hands. is a first time gelding that showed an even finish coming down the hill in last, but hasn't even shown that much finish when routing, but he wouldn't be the first horse to show appreciable improvement immediately after being gelded. has shown some nice versatility in his past 2 races, made a big sweeping far turn move in last to put himself in a winning position at the 3/16ths pole, and blasted home in 11.2, only to be denied by the 4/5 favorite. That was a 12 horse field, so that winner must have looked the part to leave the gate at 4/5. would be upsets in my book, and would be fantasies.

Kenneth Black, the trainer of , is a rock solid trainer that is in the unenviable position of taking over the Old English Rancho training duties from Donald Warren and basically overseeing the final dismantling of that operation.

20MTP is the 2/1 fav. That 2/1 is a slight overlay in my book. I put him at 7/5, but wouldn't be surprised to see him go off at 5/2.

[Muddy]

Alive to the 1234 in the pick 4 would love to see the 1 win for 1k payout.

1.00 ticket was 8/4611/1246/1234=48.00

#7 takes down the whole p-6 pool for 500k

Good Luck!