update on final fractions

[sbcaris]

The following are those horses that qualify so far on final fractions for final 3/8:

Nyquest----------37 4/5 Florida Derby
Exaggeratpr -----37 3/5 SA Derby
Brody's Cause----37 3/5 Blue Grass
My Man Sam-----37 3/5 Blue Grass
Cherry Wine------37 4/5 Blue Grass

One more big 5 prep to be run---- the Ark Derby next Saturday.

Nobody from the Wood Memorial qualified on final 3/8 time.

[whodoyoulike]

I'm guessing this an angle of yours for the KD.

Assuming these are the only ones, how do you separate further?

Or, do you bet all or most of these five?

[sbcaris]

I use an 8 factor checklist to determine who comes out the best, second best and third best etc. The final fraction angle is one of the 8 basic indicators.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Will you share the others?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

I use an 8 factor checklist to determine who comes out the best, second best and third best etc. The final fraction angle is one of the 8 basic indicators.

whats been your success rate? How long have you been doing this?

cheers

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

The following are those horses that qualify so far on final fractions for final 3/8:

Nyquest----------37 4/5 Florida Derby
Exaggeratpr -----37 3/5 SA Derby
Brody's Cause----37 3/5 Blue Grass
My Man Sam-----37 3/5 Blue Grass
Cherry Wine------37 4/5 Blue Grass

One more big 5 prep to be run---- the Ark Derby next Saturday.

Nobody from the Wood Memorial qualified on final 3/8 time.

this is a great angle but i wonder if there is a way to take it further...

let me try to explain, hard for me to put it into words...

is there a way to come up with a formula that would equate the final 3/8 to the pace of the race.

If you take 2 horses lets say and both run the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 but horse A ran a 23 and 48 first 1/2 mile and horse B ran 24 3/5 and 48 4/5 then wouldnt horse A's 27 4/5 be more impressive?

Furthermore lets say the races are at 2 different tracks and horse A gets a 104 beyer and horse B gets a 96 beyer. Again wouldnt horse A's 37 4/5 be more impressive?


Just a thought, its a great angle. It fits 12 of the 16 Derby winners this century. (14 of 16 38 flat or under) Not trying to poop on anyones parade.

[PowerUpPaynter]

What do you make of Mo Tom going 38 1/5 while being stopped not once but TWICE... I think Mo Tom is landing somewhere in the super after the scolding the jockey took he will go as wide as needed to stay in the clear. Combine that with some front end speed. Dont think he can win the race but everything else is on the table.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

What do you make of Mo Tom going 38 1/5 while being stopped not once but TWICE... I think Mo Tom is landing somewhere in the super after the scolding the jockey took he will go as wide as needed to stay in the clear. Combine that with some front end speed. Dont think he can win the race but everything else is on the table.

I think there will be a hot pace in this years derby, which will benefit all the closers. Borel is the only jockey that can get the email & win. Monarchos & Giacomo both went very wide.

If you have a deep closer in a 20 horse field, the last place you want to be is along the rail. If you have the horse, you can go wide & still win.

Mo Tom has talent, but he keeps getting into trouble, & I always throw out troubled horses, they don't do well in the KD.

[f2tornado]

First, Tom is 18th in points and could be knocked out if the right horses hit the board in the Ark. If he does survive the bubble then he has to survive a trip with a lot more horses. He might have to go way wide on the last turn. I don't see any big standouts this year like AP, Chrome, and Orb the previous so if you like the guy then throw a $20 on it or plug into exotics.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

this is a great angle but i wonder if there is a way to take it further...

If you take 2 horses lets say and both run the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 but horse A ran a 23 and 48 first 1/2 mile and horse B ran 24 3/5 and 48 4/5 then wouldnt horse A's 27 4/5 be more impressive? ...

This was what I was wondering.

The Beyer's at this stage of development isn't as important for me since the last few years I've been using BRIS and am unaware of the Beyer figures for each horse.

[PowerUpPaynter]

also you gotta wonder what % of derby starters fit the under 38 mold? Id bet this year is less then most cause its such a weak crop

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

also you gotta wonder what % of derby starters fit the under 38 mold? Id bet this year is less then most cause its such a weak crop

They have made up around 30% of starters through the years but excludes anything other than FL, Ark, SA, Wood, and Bluegrass. That is five to six starters per year and they win about 70% of the time. The ROI is around $2.80 or 40% if you bet every one to win every year. I think there are five so far this year: Nyquist, Exaggerator, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam, and Cherry Wine. Cherry Wine doesn't make the gate without significant help. Perhaps we add one or two from the Ark but I'm not planning on it unless Suddenbreakingnews can stay out of trouble. Always the chance it is one of those 3 in 10 years when something else hits. Most of these off year hits were courtesy of Raise A Native sire line. There's your Gun Runner.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

The following are those horses that qualify so far on final fractions for final 3/8:

Nyquest----------37 4/5 Florida Derby
Exaggeratpr -----37 3/5 SA Derby
Brody's Cause----37 3/5 Blue Grass
My Man Sam-----37 3/5 Blue Grass
Cherry Wine------37 4/5 Blue Grass

One more big 5 prep to be run---- the Ark Derby next Saturday.

Nobody from the Wood Memorial qualified on final 3/8 time.

I am not understanding what you are suggesting.

Therefore is it energy in the last 3/8m and did you use Equibase data or Trakus data?

Furthermore, path position is critical in the last 3/8m because that portion of the race begins in the far turn heading for home and acceleration is very difficult; especially at Churchill Downs with its tight turns.

[sbcaris]

Cratos: You asked what am I suggesting with the above fractional times.

Final Fractions indicate how fast a horse runs in the last part of a race and in my opinion is the best indicator for predicting how he will run when the distances are longer. There is no guarantee it will be successful all the time, however, my research has shown that in the last 43 years there were 30 Derby winners that fit my final fraction indicator. That's 69.7% of the winners since 1973. Since the percent of starters qualifying on this indicator is 29.2% the impact value for this factor is a very strong 2.39 which means that horses qualifying on this angle are winning the roses more than twice as often as statistical expectation.

The above indicator is one of my 8 indicators for handicapping the Ky Derby. If interested my book-Analyzing The Triple Crown- contains several indicators that achieve high impact values in all three legs of the Triple Crown.

American Turf Monthly is selling my above book as part of a package which includes checklists for all three Triple Crown Races, My selections for each race and my comments for each race. The checklists and my comments and longshot selections will be emailed to you on the Thursday before each Triple Crown event. American Turf Monthly's phone is 1-800-645-2240.

Stan Caris sbcaris@comcast.net

[kevb]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

What do you make of Mo Tom going 38 1/5 while being stopped not once but TWICE...

I agree it was in impressive finish by Mo Tom. I think he has a good chance to win the Derby, and will be a little under the radar. My top choices: Nyquist, Exaggerator, Mo Tom. I have Danzing Candy in the Future Pool at 17-1, but after The SA Derby fiasco, he might be more than that on Derby Day. Fun time of year.