Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-15-2002, 09:14 AM   #1
karlskorner
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: south florida
Posts: 2,547
Rep Power: 0 karlskorner is an unknown quantity at this point
86% of winners change lead

http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky...ng/2855595.htm
karlskorner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2002, 09:30 AM   #2
GR1@HTR
Registered User
 
GR1@HTR's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Dallas, Tx
Posts: 1,502
Rep Power: 19 GR1@HTR is on a distinguished road
Maybe that would be a good angle if they did not change leads in last race...But the question is what percentage of horses who did not change leads in last race will change leads in the next race?
GR1@HTR is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2002, 10:52 AM   #3
Derek2U
Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: new york city
Posts: 1,424
Rep Power: 0 Derek2U is on a distinguished road
Changing Leads etc etc

Don't you think that because its 2002 & NOT 1980, the data
we use to handicap should get up2Date? I saw the topic of
changing leads ... and that led to my brain working: For starters,
why why why do we still rely on beaten lengths when EVERY
HORSE's own Fractional & Final Times can be measured with
electronic precision? And .... how about trainers being forced
to explain why their horse was OUT from racing over let's say
4 months or more?

Should'nt all races show the SAME fractional calls & times?

I'm sure there's more that could be done to give us cappers
accurate info. It's just that I wonder whose in charge of keeping
us so much in the dark? Considering the MISS-INFORMATION
and LACK-OF-INFO, it's incredible that even a few of us can
manage to stay solvent.

Is there any other revenue-generating sport whose fans/watchdogs would tolerate such weak/missing data?
Derek2U is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2002, 11:42 AM   #4
anotherdave
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 633
Rep Power: 0 anotherdave is on a distinguished road
Also I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of ALL horses change leads. That would give me an idea how powerful the statistic is.

AD
anotherdave is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2002, 01:07 AM   #5
FortuneHunter
Back from the Abyss
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 254
Rep Power: 18 FortuneHunter is on a distinguished road
DerekU2 writes:

".... why why why do we still rely on beaten lengths when EVERY
HORSE's own Fractional & Final Times can be measured with
electronic precision?"

How do you propose this be done?

FH
FortuneHunter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2002, 01:43 AM   #6
BillW
Comfortably Numb
 
BillW's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Lexington, Ky
Posts: 6,174
Rep Power: 25 BillW will become famous soon enoughBillW will become famous soon enough
Data Accuracy

More accurate data is only good if only I have it. If all you guys have it too, we are back to break-even. I'm not willing to pay for that "improvement". And believe me, the customers will be the ones to pay for any improvement like that.

Bill W.
BillW is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2002, 08:58 AM   #7
ranchwest
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 3,898
Rep Power: 21 ranchwest is on a distinguished road
One of the problems with radical change in data gathering is that you have to gather the data for years before it is usable because that is the only way that you can provide a presentation that is apples to apples. In today's instant gratification world, I'm not anticipating that Equibase or DRF are going to maintain 2 sets of data for 5 years when they have no serious competition.

As for changing leads, I'm not an expert by any means, but I've long thought that lead changes explain a lot of things. For instance, many people think that if a horse closes well at 6f then the horse is looking for more ground and will run great at a mile. I suspect that many such horses don't run well until they change leads at the top of the stretch and will close from 9th to 4th at almost any distance. The only way some such horses win is when facing quitting pigs and then their win spawns a whole new set of handicapping theories that are baseless.
ranchwest is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2002, 12:56 PM   #8
Lefty
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 12,075
Rep Power: 30 Lefty will become famous soon enough
Sometimes these race statistics can lead you astray. Used to be a stat that something like 80 some-odd pct of winners raced within 30 days but at that time it was meaningless cause almost 90% of horses ran back with 30 days. Something like that.
How about this one?: 100% of winners have jockeys.
Lefty is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2002, 05:56 PM   #9
Observer
Support Res-Q Foundations
 
Observer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 1,488
Rep Power: 19 Observer will become famous soon enough
karlskorner,

Thanks for the link! What an interesting article. I do believe for a horse to reach his best, he needs to switch leads, for the very reason Prado said. But I can also understand how a horse could be in such a concentration mode that he just doesn't make the change. Ultimately, though, failing to willingly change leads in the heat of battle is a detriment, particularly on a horse who shows the ability to make those changes on cue in the mornings.

And on a general race-by-race basis, I do like to try to keep notes in my trip notes of horses that failed to change leads. Some horses you see routinely failing to change, while others will fail turning in a sub-par effort or hinting at a future sub-par effort.

Last edited by Observer; 03-16-2002 at 05:59 PM.
Observer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply

Tags
changing leads




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
What is your most successful handicapping trait/tool?
Patience - 14.18%
40 Votes
Experience - 17.02%
48 Votes
Number crunching - 6.38%
18 Votes
Sheets / Thorograph / TimeformUS / DRF / Equibase, etc. - 11.70%
33 Votes
Software - 15.96%
45 Votes
Very specific races/angles - 10.64%
30 Votes
Jockey/Trainer angles - 6.03%
17 Votes
Other - 18.09%
51 Votes
Total Votes: 282
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:01 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.