Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board
>
Search Forums
Search Results
User Name
Remember Me?
Password
Home
Register
FAQ
Donate
Roster
Calendar
Forum
Today's Posts
Search
Search Forums
Show Threads
Show Posts
Tag Search
Advanced Search
Go to Page...
Page 1 of 20
1
2
3
11
>
Last
»
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500
Search took
0.31
seconds.
Search:
Posts Made By:
traynor
Forum:
Harness Racing
07-13-2017, 05:01 PM
Replies:
0
Concepts
Views:
723
Posted By
traynor
Concepts
In 1462 Races 0.56 % of Winners had FASTER AP in LAST than TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.15 % of Winners had SAME AP in LAST as TODAY
In 1462 Races 0.29 % of Winners had SLOWER AP in LAST than TODAY
In...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-29-2017, 05:16 PM
Replies:
123
Poll:
Odds lines are useless
Views:
27,155
Posted By
traynor
I agree. One of the great things about 2017 is...
I agree. One of the great things about 2017 is that it is a fairly trivial matter to hire someone to write (or modify) an app to scrape and re-format data any way one prefers. Then one can have it in...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-19-2017, 07:20 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
Great recommendation! Thanks! Might be a bit...
Great recommendation! Thanks!
Might be a bit over the head of the pencil-and-paper handicappers, but looks like a good time investment for anyone using a computer for data analysis.
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-19-2017, 05:55 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
Great recommendation! Thanks! ...
Great recommendation! Thanks!
https://www.amazon.com/Algorithms-Live-Computer-Science-Decisions/dp/1627790365
You might also consider:
"Amazon Best Books of the Month, November 2011: Drawing...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-18-2017, 10:26 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
Perhaps even more than you realize.
Perhaps even more than you realize.
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-18-2017, 10:23 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
It isn't necessary to know HOW ML, NN, and AI do...
It isn't necessary to know HOW ML, NN, and AI do what they do to understand WHAT they do. Most people are "mechanically incompetent" yet manage to drive various vehicles around with some degree of...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-18-2017, 04:08 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
Thank you for clearly stating points I have been...
Thank you for clearly stating points I have been trying to make for a long time. "Basic programming skills" doesn't necessarily mean learning all the syntax of a programming language to write your...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-18-2017, 03:55 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
With all due respect to both Einstein and Pareto,...
With all due respect to both Einstein and Pareto, the percentages may be even more extreme.
"The Pareto principle (also known as the 80/20 rule, the law of the vital few, or the principle of...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-17-2017, 01:39 AM
Replies:
58
With a 30% win rate, one play every two cards & 20% ROI, how & what would you bet
Views:
11,878
Posted By
traynor
It also has a meaning similar to "choking"--as in...
It also has a meaning similar to "choking"--as in two blocks jammed against one another to the point that no further movement is possible (alternately called "chockablock" or "chocked tight"). Common...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-13-2017, 07:03 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
I think many of those who use computers to...
I think many of those who use computers to handicap races hope to beat the races (generically) rather than beating each specific race. The broad brush strokes derived from AI, ML, and NN tend to be...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-12-2017, 11:44 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
Plain vanilla, standard laptop and desktop....
Plain vanilla, standard laptop and desktop. Nothing spectacular. Some of the most useful data mining apps (and processes) are well-suited to pretty basic computer hardware.
It is the approach to...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-12-2017, 11:37 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
Absolutely. If one is using standard PP data,...
Absolutely. If one is using standard PP data, finding stuff that everyone else misses or overlooks is almost impossible. Whatever one discovers is guaranteed to be found (or to have been found) by...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-12-2017, 09:32 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
Well, so what? If you are using a piece of...
Well, so what? If you are using a piece of software (yours or someone else's) that "builds models" using all the races in a specific clump, or all the races that fit a specific set of filters, it...
Forum:
Handicapping Software
06-12-2017, 08:03 PM
Replies:
30
Studying Past Results
Views:
10,736
Posted By
traynor
Studying Past Results
A good explanation of why handicappers "studying" their clumps of races so often go astray, and wind up chasing rainbows that don't exist in the real world. "Overfitting to a specific clump of races"...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 03:31 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
Absolutely. Well said.
Absolutely. Well said.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 03:25 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
Not guaranteed to perform similarly. Quite the...
Not guaranteed to perform similarly. Quite the contrary. Data mining horse races in the real world does little more than suggest possible trends. Applying other filters and processes to the mined...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 03:18 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
Paper ROI is equvialent to Ray Taulbot (and crew)...
Paper ROI is equvialent to Ray Taulbot (and crew) or many of the old PRN "systems" developing methods based on small samples. Based on results not wagered (only studied), rather than on actual...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 03:08 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
I understand (and fully appreciate) that....
I understand (and fully appreciate) that. However, as thaskalos mentioned, another (equivalent) set of races could result in a different (and possibly significantly different) outcome. And, as I have...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 03:03 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
Absolutely. That was the point. Relying on a...
Absolutely. That was the point. Relying on a paper ROI derived from studying a specific set of races and believing that value will be perfectly replicated in another specific set of races is a...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 02:39 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
Actual ROI matters. Paper ROI not so much. The...
Actual ROI matters. Paper ROI not so much. The study of the races on this thread is impressive, because it was made "going forward" (rather than retroactively determined by parsing past races). The...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 02:34 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
If the ROI was actual, and not just on paper, it...
If the ROI was actual, and not just on paper, it certainly does. Studying a group of 1000 races and finding a paper ROI of 1.05 does not in any way guarantee a 5% profit from identical wagers made on...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 02:26 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
I think Lawrence Revere's comment, "It doesn't...
I think Lawrence Revere's comment, "It doesn't matter who wins or who loses. All that matters is who ends up with the money." applies even more to horse race wagering than it does to blackjack.
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 02:19 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
Consider--if the additional 100 race sample had...
Consider--if the additional 100 race sample had included an outlier (a larger than normal mutuel) it might have tipped the ROI of the entire set to increase, rather than decrease. Would that have...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 02:08 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
I think it is unfortunate that DeltaLover...
I think it is unfortunate that DeltaLover sometimes tends to underemphasize points that are more important/significant than the casual reader might believe. An example is emphasizing actual return...
Forum:
General Handicapping Discussion
06-01-2017, 01:57 PM
Replies:
288
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...
Views:
54,864
Posted By
traynor
Like much else in life, "it depends." I cannot...
Like much else in life, "it depends." I cannot imagine anyone other than the proverbial one-trick pony applying the same betting strategy to every race. Different factor sets call for different...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 500
Page 1 of 20
1
2
3
11
>
Last
»
Forum Jump
User Control Panel
Private Messages
Subscriptions
Who's Online
Search Forums
Forums Home
Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion
General Handicapping Discussion
Interviews
General Racing Discussion
Handicapper's Corner
**TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**
Handicapping Software
HandiFast Handicapping Software
Advance Deposit Wagering (ADW)
Handicapping Library
Horseplayers Association of North America (H.A.N.A.)
Selections
Contests + Other Interesting Racing Topics
Harness Racing
Off-Site Handicapping Contests
Off Topic
Off Topic - General
Off Topic - Sports
Off Topic - Computers
Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets
Off Topic - Poker
» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
90; 89; 91; 90
67; 71; 82; 89
»
View Poll Results
»
Comment On This Poll
»
This Poll Has 33 Replies
Powered by
vBadvanced
CMPS v3.2.3
All times are GMT -4. The time now is
03:39 AM
.
-- Default 2017
---- Reduced Width
------ Full Screen
PaceAdvantage.com
-
Archive
-
Privacy Statement
-
Terms of Service
-
Top
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.