With a 30% win rate, one play every two cards & 20% ROI, how & what would you bet

[Bill Cullen]

Question:

With a 30% win rate, one play every two cards & a 20% positive ROI, what type of bets would you make (win, exotic, etc.) and how would you bet ( money management)?

My number one goal is to steadily increase the bankroll. I'm in no rush.

Many thanks in advance,

Bill C.

[oughtoh]

If I was doing it I would play win bets at 2% of my bankroll. As you win more you bet more, win less bet less. Just my opinion.

[jimmyb]

One track wouldn't cut it. Simulcasting would work great for win betting. 20 tracks would give me 10 plays. I agree with 2% of bankroll with a bank of $2000.00.

$40.00 win bets X10. 20% of $400 = $80.00 X 7 days = $560.00 weekly. An extra $2000.00 or so a month would be a nice chunk of change.

[green80]

another popular method is base bet + sq rt of profits. It is more agressive approach but I have found it to be best overall. Say your base bet is $2 and you are $9 ahead, you would bet $5, when you at $100 profit, your bet is $12. You must recalculate after each bet, which shouldn't be hard if you just get 1 bet every 2 cards

[green80]

With a 30% win rate, I wouldn't bet anything less than 5/2

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by green80

With a 30% win rate, I wouldn't bet anything less than 5/2

Yes, we heard rumors to that effect.

I'm kidding: yes, that IS the odds filter that I use.

Thanks,

Bill

[lamboguy]

back in the old days of commission and order horses, there were bets every day. unless you were on the inside you never knew which were the real horses or which were the fake ones that they spread all over the country like wild fire.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by oughtoh

If I was doing it I would play win bets at 2% of my bankroll. As you win more you bet more, win less bet less. Just my opinion.

Yes, I've used the 2% of capital approach in the past and it is eminently sensible.

Thanks,

Bill C

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by green80

With a 30% win rate, I wouldn't bet anything less than 5/2

Bill's average winner pays $8.00, so how could you limit the odds range at 5/2? This doesn't even remotely make sense.....

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by jimmyb

One track wouldn't cut it.

Of course. The weekends would be the best time to maximize the number of plays.

Thanks,

Bill C

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Bill's average winner pays $8.00, so how could you limit the odds range at 5/2? This doesn't even remotely make sense.....

I can't speak for the original poster about the 5/2 and above odds but this would be something I would try to implement through the Twinspires.com odds filter.

Best,

Bill C

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

I can't speak for the original poster about the 5/2 and above odds but this would be something I would try to implement through the Twinspires.com odds filter.

Best,

Bill C

Let me give you a 10 race example:

Your 3 winners paid $5, $6 and $13

But when analyzing your 3 winners, you find the $5 and $6 horses were both overlays, and your $13 horse was properly priced at 11/2, therefore no profit or loss, yet you end up having a +ROI of 20% for this example. So unless you've done extensive odds layering of your sample size, there's no way of knowing what odds ranges are actually profitable for your methodology...

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

So unless you've done extensive odds layering of your sample size, there's no way of knowing what odds ranges are actually profitable for your methodology...

I would not have posted my original question if I didn't think I had a adequate sample size, known the distribution of the odds on the winners and most importantly, knew that the median winning payoff multiplied by 30% was generating a break even ROI.

[Poindexter]

Just curious. If you hit 30% overall, doesn't mean that your horses that go off at 8/5 will win at a 30% clip and horses that go off at 6/1 will also hit 30%. The horses that go off at 8/5 may win at a 45% clip and still be plenty profitable and the horses that go off at 6/1 may only win 18% of the time and be plenty profitable. You came up with 5/2 as your odds filter. Is that because you assumed that 5/2 was best or because coincidentally that is where your plays needed to be to insure they were profitable or that is sort of the magic point on maintaining that high roi?

Now I am assuming you have a large sample of plays in the books and know these plays to be profitable, the next step is to figure out what their hit rate is by final odds. In other words you plays that go off at 3-1 may win at a 30% clip, your plays that go off at 4-1 may win only at a at a 25% clip............once you determine this use a straight kelly method and pull out profts as you reach certain plateaus. If your sample size is on the smallish size and you don't want to risk Kelly just yet, 3% of bankroll should keep you safe. If you are able to assess value with your methodology, I would go with 2 1/2% of bankroll on a lower value play, up to 3 1/2 % of bankroll on a high value play. One other option is to have a standard betting bankroll where you bet 3% of your bankroll per play, then put the profits on a Kelly bankroll. That way if your plays continue to deliver you will start making huge money down the road, but if they do not, and they sort of tread water, your initial bankroll will not go down the tubes. This is typically the best approach when trying something new.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

Question:

With a 30% win rate, one play every two cards & a 20% positive ROI, what type of bets would you make (win, exotic, etc.) and how would you bet ( money management)?

My number one goal is to steadily increase the bankroll. I'm in no rush.

Many thanks in advance,

Bill C.

With one play every two cards (!) I would try to find something better to do.