BETTING ENTRIES (2 or more)
 

Has anyone ever quantified straight win betting on entries and an ROI?

Hey Paul

Do you mean win betting on 1/1A or 2/2B with win returns on investment?

Hey Paul,

I looked that up with the entries I just did 1/1A for 2017 at Belmont and it looks like there were 66 horses altogether which amounted to 33 betting interests

Per $2 wager it would have cost you $66 but win payouts only came up to $49 from what I could see I didn't do the 2/2B but you are at least $17 in the whole doing that for this year at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...iestwomore.jpg

I'm not sure what the long run over years would be to do that for coupled entries which is what I am assuming you were looking to do

Let me know if you see something different this was pretty quick and dirty

Also Odds are Morning Line Odds not actual Odds

thanks
 

How did you compile this quickly? I was listening to Andy Serling and Gabby etc and it was pointed out that entries are often overbet. So here we have a small sample reflecting a larger loss rate than the track takeout. Thank you. If there was a way to do it in mass, I would like to.

Hey Paul

No problems bro

I'm happy I was able to be of some help

I took a look at Maiden races for the coupled entry situation and thanks to the $14 number in June it looks like there is a small profit per $2 win bet since opening day this year at Belmont

I will display those shortly

What about the return on a place bet? I just ask because if an entry is odds on and runs first and second many times the place price pays more than the win.

There were 36 horses altogether in Maiden races which amounted to 18 betting interests

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...dnstwomore.jpg

Per $2 wager it would have cost you $36 but win payouts only came to $37.40 for this situation so you would have only made $1.40 for your effort for the 1/1A entries

Interesting to note, the place payouts came to $39.20 which is slightly more than the win payouts so you are getting a 10% return for the Maidens per $2 place wager in this situation for the 1/1A entries thanks to that $14 number in June!!!

Hey Inner,

Win and place wagering would have cost you $72 for the Maiden coupled entries in which case you would have made $76.60 which again was helped by the $14 number in June

It might not be worth the effort in the long run though

PULLING THE DATA
 

Does anyone know a way to pull the data from Equibase or another source without doing it manually. I have always hesitated to be involved with entries, because they "appear" over bet. I need a larger sample, but if I have to I will start tracking on those cards I follow.

thanks again.

Hey Paul

How far back do you want to go?

how far back
 

I am not a stats guy but pretty close to it. I would say a sample of a few hundred races across a cross section of tracks. It is the cost benefit of doing it. the more data, the better.

My thing is if the take is 16 percent on Win, on average, and rebates come in at 5 (if we are lucky) or a bit less, and we have a positive on this which I doubt, it should be a blind bet. Then I can sleep better. I always want a blind bet. It is lazy but makes sense.

Hey Paul,

I went back to 2016 at Belmont with the coupled entries and due to a $35 number back in June 19, 2016 and a $18 number back on October 16, 2016 the win prices are inflated. The return for last year and this year combined is $199.70



From what I could see there were 184 horses coupled which means 92 betting interest. At $2 per win wager it would have cost you $184 so you actually made 8.5% on your money going back to last year in this situation

However, I did not include the 2/2B for 2016 or 2017

Saw some issues with my June data will repost shortly

I had some issues with the June data I think it is fixed now If I did this correctly there were 180 horses coupled so 90 betting interests at $2 per win wager gives a cost of $180 against win payouts of $193.50 or 7.5% on your money going back to last year

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...etwoyrsbel.png


Again, I did not do the 2/2B entries at any rate it is not much of a return on your money per $2 win wager even though 2016 was kind to coupled entries at Belmont for 1/1A!!!

This is a little tougher to research.. What about when one half of the entry is scratched?

Of course in races scheduled for the turf , when there is a coupled entry, a lot of times one horse of the entry is turf meant, the other half might be MTO and one of the two would be scratched, so there being an entry means nothing.

Hey Nutz

I just assumed he meant when both halves ran since if the other was scratched then there's no coupling for that race and it's just like singling that one horse!!!

Okay.

BOTH HALVES RUNNING
 

I absolutely meant when both halves of the entry were running. So this sample is not too bad. I know that a flat bet, in the sample is quite decent. So Andy Serling may be wrong. In a big sample, if the flat bet is blind to all conditions, trainers etc, which this is, then it is a great bet. So thoughts are appreciated. You have to include the big payouts too. That is why a bigger sample is better, right?

- include 2 horse entries only, maybe include 2 and 2b and 3 and 3c but really that gets it out of hand.

-this is quite helpful.

-how hard is it to pull and clean the data?

Hey Paul,

I have noticed that the coupled entries in Maiden races are giving you a 79% return per $2 win bet since May 28, 2016 at Belmont for the 1/1A coupling

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...twoturfbel.jpg

I get 48 horses that were coupled so 24 betting interest which at $2 per win cost you $48 and you were actually ahead $38 or 79%

Let's keep an eye on this for the remainder of the Belmont season!!!

Thanks for bringing this up !!!

There's a Maiden coupled entry in the 2nd race on the Turf in the 2nd race today at Belmont:

2nd race
#2 Now in a Drive
#2B Winning Element

Let's see if one of these can get the win today at Belmont provided that neither of them get scratched!!!

I forgot to include the 1/1A in the 2nd race
#1
Ninety One Assault
#1A
Strong Side

Let's see how they do in this race!!!

Well #1Ninety One Assault came through and got the win today on the Turf at Belmont


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...morebeltrf.jpg

So 25 betting interest at $2 per win cost you $50 and you are now ahead $52 or 102% on your money!!!

I'm not sure why this is happening but let's ride it until the wheels fall off for the remainder of the season at Belmont!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

I will concentrate on the 1/1A coupled entries for Maidens on the Turf at Belmont!!!

There is another 1/1A Maiden coupling on the Turf today at Belmont:

1st race
#1 Unlockthepotential / 1A Wage Acceleration

Brown has them with another Economics/Finance angle let's see if he can get the win with one of these in the 1st race today provided neither of them are scratched!!!

Brown's coupled entry got the win yesterday it only paid $7 across the board but keeps the streak going at 3 in a row that have won as coupled entries in a Maiden race on the Turf at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...oneabeltrf.jpg

Coupled entries have been a real problem for me. I struggle with how to do the calculations without double counting the returns on investment

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

GENERAL COMMENT
 

I have been busy compiling my wagers and have not been on the board in a while. I am giving an non statistical view on this. I love this idea though. It seems like 2 for 1 in average field sizes that are shrinking coupled with randomness and a 15 or so percent average takeout makes logical sense to wager on in a high rebate shop environment.

1/8 is 12.5 but 2/9 is .22 and you start running numbers on averages with randomness and you are getting close. The driver to all of this was Serling saying entries are overbet. But how much? and really who ever ran these numbers. I am going to spend a lot of dedicated time on this and share the information when the temp starts to plunge. I am not a SA player to the positive and need to get better so research is important.

There's another coupled entry in a Maiden race on the Turf at Belmont today in the 5th race:

5th race
#1 Curlins New Moon /1A Ambassador Jim

However, one of these may scratch as there was some rain yesterday and some races may come off the Turf

Let's see what happens if these stay together today at Belmont and possibly make it 4 wins in a row!!!

Well 1A Ambassador Jim came through with a win today on the Turf as half of the coupled entry to make it 4 wins in a row in this situation!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...aentbeltrf.jpg

You are getting 100% on your money since May 28th, 2016 as it would have cost you $54 per $2 wager on the coupled entries!!!

I don't know why it's happening but let's hope it continues hopefully there will be one more before the season is over at Belmont!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

I missed a coupled entry on October 5th, 2017 it should be there now!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...beltrfmore.jpg

So there were 28 coupled entries at a cost of $56 per $2 win wager giving you $110.20 so slightly under 100% for the return to win in this situation

There is another Maiden coupled entry on the Turf at Belmont today in the 2nd race:

2nd race
#1 Givetheman a Cigar /1A Filius Scat

I doubt that this will win so I am hoping one half of the entry will scratch to preserve the win streak which is now at 3 in a row!!!

Well #1 Givetheman a Cigar was scratched so this will not qualify for the study

There is another Maiden coupled entry on the Turf at Belmont in the 5th race today

5th race
#1 Le Condor / #1A Mathematician

I'm not sure these will win today but if one should scratch we would preserve the win streak at 3 in a row!!!

#1A Mathematician was scratched on Saturday so this will not qualify for the study!!!

For AQU Coupled Entry Wager -- Not that profitable!!
 

Hey Paul,

At Belmont there were instances where playing the 1/1A coupled entries actually led to a profit

However, at Aqueduct it is a different story, I only went back to January 2016 up to yesterday and followed the coupled entries for 1/1A

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...upled entr.png

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...d entr two.png

There were 162 individual entries giving 81 betting interest. At $2 per win wager the cost was $162 but winnings only came to $92.80 and so you were down -$69.20!!!

Blindly wagering on the 1/1A didn't result in any profit from what I could see from last year at Aqueduct

The only thing that I could see that gave you close to your money back was playing the coupled entries when they were less than 7/2 in the Morning Line and even then you took a small loss!!!

Hey Paul,

I searched for profits regarding the coupled entries from January 1st, 2016 up until today at Aqueduct

I found that Morning Lines less than 7/2 in Sprint races on the Dirt had 40 entries or 20 betting interest so at a cost of $40 per $2 win wager you would have won $57.80 which is a 44.5% profit!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...ntwosprint.png

I only looked at coupled entries that were 1/1A so let's keep an eye on this situation for the rest of the Aqueduct season!!!

Out of 20 betting interest 13 were winners which is a 65% win percentage since January 1st, 2016 for this situation!!!

There is a coupled entry in the 7th race today at Aqueduct

7th race
#1 China Rider /1A Avery Maeve

However, many things need to happen for this to qualify for the study, the race has to come off the Turf and the coupled entry has to remain together with no scratches!!!

Of course 1 of the 2 need to win so let's see what happens!!!

There are a few coupled entries less than 7-2 in the Morning Line today at Aqueduct

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/imag...cpldentrtd.jpg

I forgot to include these 2 for Jacobson as well:
8th race
1 Harlan Punch / 1A Very Very Stella

If these can stay together it will be interesting to see if they can pick up at least 1 win today at Aqueduct!!!

OUT FOR A WHILE
 

We have not had much snow if any so I have enjoyed the weather. I think that the results still need to be expanded. I know you have NY data. So when I really get into this, and expand my betting records, which I log daily would it be difficult to expand this to other tracks or would I have to use Equibase charts that I pull and review. I think it might be worth the effort to keep to the task. Thanks for everything, Paul.

Hey Paul,

Yes, unfortunately I only have NYC data I just don't have the time to do the other tracks

It would have been interesting to be able to do it from drop downs as opposed to cutting and pasting from the charts

At any rate, I am interested to see what happens at Aqueduct!!!