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Old 10-05-2017, 02:06 PM   #1
paulbenny
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BETTING ENTRIES (2 or more)

Has anyone ever quantified straight win betting on entries and an ROI?
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Old 10-05-2017, 02:22 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
Has anyone ever quantified straight win betting on entries and an ROI?
Hey Paul

Do you mean win betting on 1/1A or 2/2B with win returns on investment?

Last edited by TheOracle; 10-05-2017 at 02:30 PM.
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Old 10-05-2017, 05:16 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
Has anyone ever quantified straight win betting on entries and an ROI?
Hey Paul,

I looked that up with the entries I just did 1/1A for 2017 at Belmont and it looks like there were 66 horses altogether which amounted to 33 betting interests

Per $2 wager it would have cost you $66 but win payouts only came up to $49 from what I could see I didn't do the 2/2B but you are at least $17 in the whole doing that for this year at Belmont



I'm not sure what the long run over years would be to do that for coupled entries which is what I am assuming you were looking to do

Let me know if you see something different this was pretty quick and dirty

Also Odds are Morning Line Odds not actual Odds

Last edited by TheOracle; 10-05-2017 at 05:26 PM.
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Old 10-06-2017, 10:19 PM   #4
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thanks

How did you compile this quickly? I was listening to Andy Serling and Gabby etc and it was pointed out that entries are often overbet. So here we have a small sample reflecting a larger loss rate than the track takeout. Thank you. If there was a way to do it in mass, I would like to.
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Old 10-07-2017, 11:58 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
How did you compile this quickly? I was listening to Andy Serling and Gabby etc and it was pointed out that entries are often overbet. So here we have a small sample reflecting a larger loss rate than the track takeout. Thank you. If there was a way to do it in mass, I would like to.
Hey Paul

No problems bro

I'm happy I was able to be of some help

I took a look at Maiden races for the coupled entry situation and thanks to the $14 number in June it looks like there is a small profit per $2 win bet since opening day this year at Belmont

I will display those shortly
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Old 10-08-2017, 09:51 AM   #6
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What about the return on a place bet? I just ask because if an entry is odds on and runs first and second many times the place price pays more than the win.
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Old 10-08-2017, 11:00 AM   #7
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Hey Paul

No problems bro

I'm happy I was able to be of some help

I took a look at Maiden races for the coupled entry situation and thanks to the $14 number in June it looks like there is a small profit per $2 win bet since opening day this year at Belmont

I will display those shortly

There were 36 horses altogether in Maiden races which amounted to 18 betting interests



Per $2 wager it would have cost you $36 but win payouts only came to $37.40 for this situation so you would have only made $1.40 for your effort for the 1/1A entries

Interesting to note, the place payouts came to $39.20 which is slightly more than the win payouts so you are getting a 10% return for the Maidens per $2 place wager in this situation for the 1/1A entries thanks to that $14 number in June!!!
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Old 10-08-2017, 11:03 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Inner Dirt View Post
What about the return on a place bet? I just ask because if an entry is odds on and runs first and second many times the place price pays more than the win.


Hey Inner,

Win and place wagering would have cost you $72 for the Maiden coupled entries in which case you would have made $76.60 which again was helped by the $14 number in June

It might not be worth the effort in the long run though
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Old 10-08-2017, 11:14 AM   #9
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PULLING THE DATA

Does anyone know a way to pull the data from Equibase or another source without doing it manually. I have always hesitated to be involved with entries, because they "appear" over bet. I need a larger sample, but if I have to I will start tracking on those cards I follow.

thanks again.
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Old 10-08-2017, 11:19 AM   #10
TheOracle
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Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
Does anyone know a way to pull the data from Equibase or another source without doing it manually. I have always hesitated to be involved with entries, because they "appear" over bet. I need a larger sample, but if I have to I will start tracking on those cards I follow.

thanks again.
Hey Paul

How far back do you want to go?
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Old 10-08-2017, 01:30 PM   #11
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how far back

I am not a stats guy but pretty close to it. I would say a sample of a few hundred races across a cross section of tracks. It is the cost benefit of doing it. the more data, the better.

My thing is if the take is 16 percent on Win, on average, and rebates come in at 5 (if we are lucky) or a bit less, and we have a positive on this which I doubt, it should be a blind bet. Then I can sleep better. I always want a blind bet. It is lazy but makes sense.
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Old 10-08-2017, 03:45 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
I am not a stats guy but pretty close to it. I would say a sample of a few hundred races across a cross section of tracks. It is the cost benefit of doing it. the more data, the better.

My thing is if the take is 16 percent on Win, on average, and rebates come in at 5 (if we are lucky) or a bit less, and we have a positive on this which I doubt, it should be a blind bet. Then I can sleep better. I always want a blind bet. It is lazy but makes sense.
Hey Paul,

I went back to 2016 at Belmont with the coupled entries and due to a $35 number back in June 19, 2016 and a $18 number back on October 16, 2016 the win prices are inflated. The return for last year and this year combined is $199.70



From what I could see there were 184 horses coupled which means 92 betting interest. At $2 per win wager it would have cost you $184 so you actually made 8.5% on your money going back to last year in this situation

However, I did not include the 2/2B for 2016 or 2017

Saw some issues with my June data will repost shortly

Last edited by TheOracle; 10-08-2017 at 03:52 PM.
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Old 10-08-2017, 04:24 PM   #13
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Hey Paul,

I went back to 2016 at Belmont with the coupled entries and due to a $35 number back in June 19, 2016 and a $18 number back on October 16, 2016 the win prices are inflated. The return for last year and this year combined is $199.70



From what I could see there were 184 horses coupled which means 92 betting interest. At $2 per win wager it would have cost you $184 so you actually made 8.5% on your money going back to last year in this situation

However, I did not include the 2/2B for 2016 or 2017

Saw some issues with my June data will repost shortly
I had some issues with the June data I think it is fixed now If I did this correctly there were 180 horses coupled so 90 betting interests at $2 per win wager gives a cost of $180 against win payouts of $193.50 or 7.5% on your money going back to last year




Again, I did not do the 2/2B entries at any rate it is not much of a return on your money per $2 win wager even though 2016 was kind to coupled entries at Belmont for 1/1A!!!
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Old 10-08-2017, 04:35 PM   #14
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This is a little tougher to research.. What about when one half of the entry is scratched?

Of course in races scheduled for the turf , when there is a coupled entry, a lot of times one horse of the entry is turf meant, the other half might be MTO and one of the two would be scratched, so there being an entry means nothing.
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Old 10-08-2017, 05:07 PM   #15
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This is a little tougher to research.. What about when one half of the entry is scratched?

Of course in races scheduled for the turf , when there is a coupled entry, a lot of times one horse of the entry is turf meant, the other half might be MTO and one of the two would be scratched, so there being an entry means nothing.
Hey Nutz

I just assumed he meant when both halves ran since if the other was scratched then there's no coupling for that race and it's just like singling that one horse!!!
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