Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

I've used the Cynthia pars for years.

Originally Posted by banacek

Can you tell me if the Cynthia pars vary by distance or are they the way I explained in the original post? That is, do the pars between each distance at a particular track differ by the same amount regardless of class or do they vary?

Much appreciated.

Originally Posted by proximity

aqu (m)

dist............6f...............6 1/2 f

md 12......112 0/5.........119 3/5... (7 3/5)
stk gr.......108 3/5.........115 2/5.... (6 4/5)

hope this helps. I have to take off NOW for a poker trip to a.c., but you can pm me any questions and i'll answer when I get back (probably sunday). I don't make ratings based on Cynthia pars but do usually get them to keep a file of supplemental info like the winning move factors.....

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think you are making a small mistake when stating the "Beyer view" above, Dave; this wasn't the idea behind Beyer's assertion that the value of a length should diminish as the race gets longer.

This is what Beyer presented as proof that a value-length adjustment should be made for the various distances:

When a human athlete runs a mile and his time is one second slower than the world record for the mile...then he is considered one of the world's best milers himself. But when he runs a 100-meter dash in a time that is one second slower than that of the 100-meter world record...then he is considered as nothing special at all.

This is hard to refute...IMO.

But the original poster is making a different point...which Beyer also addressed in one of his books:

The OP is talking about the adjustment that par charts make when projecting the horses' 6-furlong speed out to 6.5 furlongs.

In almost all the par charts we see...the difference between 6 and 6.5 furlongs is always either 6.4 or 6.6 seconds -- regardless of class. A stakes horse who runs the 6f in 1:08.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:15 (a difference of 6.4 seconds)...while the 5,000 claimer who runs the 6f in 1:13.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:20 (the same difference of 6.4 seconds).

What the OP poster is asking is what Beyer himself asked...and what I -- and many other players -- have been asking for years now:

How is the 5,000 claimer able to negotiate the extra half-furlong of the 6.5f race in the same exact time as the stakes horse...when their ability levels are so different?

Shouldn't it take longer for the 5,000 claimer to travel that extra half-furlong than it takes a stakes horse?

Originally Posted by banacek

Can you tell me if the Cynthia pars vary by distance or are they the way I explained in the original post? That is, do the pars between each distance at a particular track differ by the same amount regardless of class or do they vary?

Much appreciated.

Originally Posted by cj

I think there are two different things being discussed here, and there is some confusion. How is the value of a "beaten length" relevant to par times, which are based on the winner? They seem like two different things to me.

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree.

My own research into beaten lengths at the finish is consistent with what Dave is saying. The average winning margins increase as distances lengthen, but not by as much as some people think.

But that's entirely different thing than the time relationships of various quality horses as horses stretch out in distance.

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I took a look at this today and have created something that I think will fix the problem of the pace pars. It will be in the next release.

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The will be done on a ratio basis, using a multiplier.

In other words, as the final time increases (or decreases) the pace times will increase (or decrease) proportionately.

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Banacek,

They already do.

I think you are looking for a hand-crafted number for every track-surface-distance-class. That CANNOT exist because there will be years where a particular class NEVER ran a particular distance.

The numbers must be extrapolated.

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Back in the day, I found that I had adjust my par times according to field size. There is probably 2/5ths of second between a 6 horse field and a 12 horse field at 6f and 3/5 at a mile 1&1/16 in cheap claimers.