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Old 12-01-2013, 01:26 PM   #1
banacek
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Adjusting par times

I have been using Horsestreet Pars the last few years and have been satisfied. I use them as a basis and make adjustments based on the tracks I play regularly. But have a question to throw out to anyone (including Dave)

The difference between the final times of 2 distances at the same tracks seems to stay the same regardless of the class. The splits seems to vary, but not the final times. I'll use an example from the 2010 pars:

AQU M10000 6f par 113.37 6.5f par 120.06 or a difference of 6.69 seconds

AQU GRADED STAKES 6f par 108.45 6.5f par 115.14 difference of 6.69 seconds.


It seems wrong to me that this would be the case. Shouldn't the difference get somewhat smaller as the class rises..like a sliding scale?
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:45 AM   #2
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No response. I'll try to explain a different way.

Again looking at the 2010 pars...I'll use Bay Meadows, so I'm not giving anything away:

Difference in final time pars between M8000 and Graded Stakes:

at 4.5f 3.58 seconds
at Mile 1/4 3.58 seconds
at Mile 3/8 on Turf 3.58 seconds

I'm creating my own pars for the tracks I play. I have been using Horsestreet ones to adjust for shippers from tracks that I don't make pars for. Does anyone know if the Cynthia pars work the same way?
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Old 12-02-2013, 12:08 PM   #3
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On the surface of what you have posted I would tend to think that something isn't quite right, but then I don't use Dave's pars. Maybe Dave should be the one to ask about these par differentials. It seems unlikely, IMO, that the class differentials would be the same amount at different distances.

Maybe the point of the pars is not just the final times, but rather the pace that was encountered in order to run those final times. You mentioned that the splits' differentials were not the same, so that tells me that those splits are the key to the par figures.

I have often said that class could be expressed through faster fractionals while attaining the same final time. Some players wonder how a horse that has run faster final times gets beat by a horse that has run slower final times, and the answer obviously is in how those final times were accomplished.
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Old 12-02-2013, 12:48 PM   #4
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Sorry, I missed this until now.
(BTW, make sure you read to the bottom.)

The world is broken into two camps:

1. Beyer View: The value of a length changes in proportion to the distance.
2. Quirin View: 1 point=1 length

The Beyer view is that the value of a length should diminish as the distance gets longer. This is very logical.

The idea is that if you and I have a foot race, and you are faster by (say) 10 lengths (or seconds, or whatever) at 100 yards, you must be better by 20-somethings if we double the length of the race.

The problem with this actually becomes obvious if you think of the above example. Really... consider a race between you and someone you know (perhaps from your youth - LOL). If you raced a particular distance of ground, and you were 10 lengths better, would you really be 20 lengths better if the distance was doubled?

The answer is, "probably not." Perhaps this would be true if you ran (say) 10 yards then 20 yards... a distance where you could go full speed all the way. But the reality is that in a race between horses (or people) you don't run that way. There is just naturally a "pacing" issue.

This becomes very obvious in turf racing. In some turf races it looks as though nobody really wants the lead. The leaders spend most of their time looking over their shoulders to see who is where. How much of the race is all out?

My test for this was to look at beaten lengths. It seems to me that, if in fact, the lengths-proportionate-to-distance concept was right, then the average margin between the first two finishers would increase proportionately as we go from 6f to 9f. In other words, the average beaten lengths would increase by 1.5 from 6f to 9f.

They do not.

They do increase, but only slightly.

IMHO, there SHOULD be a slight increase. However, it is no where near 1.5 times from 6f to 9f.

Between the two options, I chose the Quirin approach because it is closer to reality. It is also simpler.

BTW, I actually have a switch in my par times to extrapolate the pars outwards using the increasing theory. I did this several years ago, took the resulting pars to import races and tested the results. By comparison, the results were just terrible. I mean, really bad.

Again, just to be clear... there should be SOME change. I could certainly make those changes, but then the system would become much more difficult for everyone to use. Slightly more accurate, but tougher to apply.

One more thing... to use the human-to-human example, there comes a point where the beaten horse, uh... guy... just gives up. As a result, the losers' speed figures are always underestimated if they finish far behind.


Want an interesting adjustment approach? Try this... take any lengths behind at the finish that exceeds 8 and treat it like an 8 when making the speed numbers. IOW, you have a race that goes in 102. There are two horses that finished 8 & 15 lengths behind, respectively. They both get 94 ratings.

You will be amazed at the results.

All of a sudden, those "impossible" longshots that win are not so impossible.


Currently we are selling or 2013 Par Times. The 2014 Pars will be out in March. If you purchase the 2013 Pars now, you will automatically receive the 2014 pars when they are available. (If you order print pars, we will charge you shipping twice.)

I am telling you this because right now you can purchase everything in our store for 40% off!

So, if you are going to purchase the 2014 Pars, this is the best time to do it. EVEN IF YOU ALREADY PURCHASED THE 2013 PARS!


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Old 12-02-2013, 01:06 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The Beyer view is that the value of a length should diminish as the distance gets longer. This is very logical.



Dave, what do you mean by the "value" of a length? Are you talking about the time value of a length? If you are, wouldn't it be just the opposite of what you stated. Wouldn't the time value of a length be larger in a longer race, because the horses are traveling at a slower speed, thus more time required to run a length? Or are you talking about the value of a length regarding the calculation of a speed figure, ie; 1 length = 1 point in a speed figure.

I thought the OP's question was about the par "times", not par "figures". Just a bit confused, as I've never read Beyer much nor have I ever made traditional speed figures.
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Old 12-02-2013, 01:15 PM   #6
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No, points-to-lengths.
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Old 12-02-2013, 01:33 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

IMHO, there SHOULD be a slight increase. However, it is no where near 1.5 times from 6f to 9f.


Thanks for the detailed response. I agree it wouldn't be 1.5 times, but it would have to be more than 1.

A stakes horse that does 1:08 for 6 furlongs and 2:00 for a mile and an eighth.

A 10000 claimer might do 1:10 for 6 furlongs, certainly not 2:02 for a mile and an eighth.

Like a 3:45 miler and 9.70 100 meter runner.. Someone who does 3:47 would be world class. Someone who runs 11.70 would only beat me


It just seems illogical to me, especially to have the same difference in a Mile and 3/8 race on the Turf and a 4.5 f race on the dirt- not that I'd use one to project the other.

And Dave, I'm not knocking your pars- a tremendous amount of work must go into them. I plan on still using them, but I think I might massage the numbers a bit with local knowledge. I am just doing my owns pars for a couple of tracks and the difference appears to be there.

Thanks for your response again.
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Old 12-02-2013, 01:50 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The world is broken into two camps:

1. Beyer View: The value of a length changes in proportion to the distance.
2. Quirin View: 1 point=1 length

The Beyer view is that the value of a length should diminish as the distance gets longer. This is very logical.

The idea is that if you and I have a foot race, and you are faster by (say) 10 lengths (or seconds, or whatever) at 100 yards, you must be better by 20-somethings if we double the length of the race.


The problem with this actually becomes obvious if you think of the above example. Really... consider a race between you and someone you know (perhaps from your youth - LOL). If you raced a particular distance of ground, and you were 10 lengths better, would you really be 20 lengths better if the distance was doubled?



I think you are making a small mistake when stating the "Beyer view" above, Dave; this wasn't the idea behind Beyer's assertion that the value of a length should diminish as the race gets longer.

This is what Beyer presented as proof that a value-length adjustment should be made for the various distances:

When a human athlete runs a mile and his time is one second slower than the world record for the mile...then he is considered one of the world's best milers himself. But when he runs a 100-meter dash in a time that is one second slower than that of the 100-meter world record...then he is considered as nothing special at all.

This is hard to refute...IMO.

But the original poster is making a different point...which Beyer also addressed in one of his books:

The OP is talking about the adjustment that par charts make when projecting the horses' 6-furlong speed out to 6.5 furlongs.

In almost all the par charts we see...the difference between 6 and 6.5 furlongs is always either 6.4 or 6.6 seconds -- regardless of class. A stakes horse who runs the 6f in 1:08.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:15 (a difference of 6.4 seconds)...while the 5,000 claimer who runs the 6f in 1:13.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:20 (the same difference of 6.4 seconds).

What the OP poster is asking is what Beyer himself asked...and what I -- and many other players -- have been asking for years now:

How is the 5,000 claimer able to negotiate the extra half-furlong of the 6.5f race in the same exact time as the stakes horse...when their ability levels are so different?

Shouldn't it take longer for the 5,000 claimer to travel that extra half-furlong than it takes a stakes horse?
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Old 12-02-2013, 02:00 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I think you are making a small mistake when stating the "Beyer view" above, Dave; this wasn't the idea behind Beyer's assertion that the value of a length should diminish as the race gets longer.

This is what Beyer presented as proof that a value-length adjustment should be made for the various distances:

When a human athlete runs a mile and his time is one second slower than the world record for the mile...then he is considered one of the world's best milers himself. But when he runs a 100-meter dash in a time that is one second slower than that of the 100-meter world record...then he is considered as nothing special at all.

This is hard to refute...IMO.

But the original poster is making a different point...which Beyer also addressed in one of his books:

The OP is talking about the adjustment that par charts make when projecting the horses' 6-furlong speed out to 6.5 furlongs.

In almost all the par charts we see...the difference between 6 and 6.5 furlongs is always either 6.4 or 6.6 seconds -- regardless of class. A stakes horse who runs the 6f in 1:08.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:15 (a difference of 6.4 seconds)...while the 5,000 claimer who runs the 6f in 1:13.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:20 (the same difference of 6.4 seconds).

What the OP poster is asking is what Beyer himself asked...and what I -- and many other players -- have been asking for years now:

How is the 5,000 claimer able to negotiate the extra half-furlong of the 6.5f race in the same exact time as the stakes horse...when their ability levels are so different?

Shouldn't it take longer for the 5,000 claimer to travel that extra half-furlong than it takes a stakes horse?

This makes sense to me.

Slower horses should run at slower velocities than faster horses the longer they run. You would expect that if a stake horse is expected to run the last half furlong in a 6 1/2f race to be faster than a maiden 10k claimer. The greater the distance, the more the differential should be.
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Old 12-02-2013, 02:11 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Horseplayersbet.com
This makes sense to me.

Slower horses should run at slower velocities than faster horses the longer they run. You would expect that if a stake horse is expected to run the last half furlong in a 6 1/2f race to be faster than a maiden 10k claimer. The greater the distance, the more the differential should be.


That is my contention also. However, when talking about higher class horses, don't they normally run faster fractions, overall? If so, then maybe the final time differential, between lower and higher classes, is less than what we think it should be. Interesting topic.
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Old 12-02-2013, 02:18 PM   #11
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Thaskalos, that is I addressed.

I just used more of an extreme, from 6f to 9f. Same principle.


Quote:
Shouldn't it take longer for the 5,000 claimer to travel that extra half-furlong than it takes a stakes horse?



In principle, yes.

Quirin had a table that he suggested. It showed how to increase the adjustment away from $10k. The problem is, "Why $10k?" Why not $8k, or $25k?

If you put this into a spreadsheet you will see that the "fulcrum" point makes a big difference. Couple this together with the problem of "a $16k race doesn't always have $16k horses" and you have a nightmare.
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Old 12-02-2013, 03:25 PM   #12
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Loking at straight $10K claimers for older males, and using Beyers, I get "10k pars" from 72 - 85. Not such a great fulcrum, but probably more reality than error. A 10K horse at Beu is not a 10K horse from Aqueduct.
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Old 12-02-2013, 03:35 PM   #13
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I think there are two different things being discussed here, and there is some confusion. How is the value of a "beaten length" relevant to par times, which are based on the winner? They seem like two different things to me.
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Old 12-02-2013, 04:46 PM   #14
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Quote:
How is the 5,000 claimer able to negotiate the extra half-furlong of the 6.5f race in the same exact time as the stakes horse...when their ability levels are so different?


The ability differences are based on the length of stride. A stakes horse will cover the same distance and time in less strides. Both horses can cover the distance in the same time, but one can do it in 12 strides or less, while the other will do it in 19 or more strides.
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Old 12-02-2013, 05:06 PM   #15
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There are probably some 2,500 dollar claimers at Los Alamitos (thoroughbreds) who could beat a Grade 1 horse like Game On Dude in a really short race, maybe 100 yards or even 2 furlongs...but once the better horse can finally catch up to the quick cheapie, he will pass him and the margin will steadily increase depending on how long the race happens to be. A really strong 20k claimer would probably be able to beat Game on Dude to the top of the stretch before GOD reeled him in and crushed him....so, the length of the race is everything when it comes to a par time, the shorter the race, the more likely it is that a run of the mill decent cheap claimer can come close to the track record.

The Track record for 4 1/2 Furlongs at Los Alamitos for Thoroughbreds is 49.2 set in 1990. Recently, a 2,500 claimer named Buds Pal won a race at Los Al on Oct 27th in 50.4

So, he was less than 2 seconds away from the track record.

I would bet at a track like Belmont, or Santa Anita, a cheap claimer can't even come within 5 seconds of the track record at 1 mile...so, there's probably some formula that you could use to compare track records at all different distances to see how close the solid hard knocking cheap claimer can come to the record for the distance.
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