TCB Blood files for 2009 Crop
 

Since we have a lot of time and questions regarding this years crop and I am trying to get back into analyzing pedigrees again for breeding season, thought I would do something I did for a farm I last worked. I will try and break down the pedigrees as I understand them and present the horse with some history and ancestor races.
Sometimes seeing a name in a pedigree can change an opinion especially when a horse is being asked to do something for the first time as evidenced by Algorithms in the slop. When I saw the forecast for the Holy Bull and remembering when I worked up Cryptoclearance how he ran in the Widener in 88 granted he was 5 at the time but the moves were similar. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ji434...eature=related
I am a huge fan of Cryptoclearance mostly because of his female family. http://www.pedigreequery.com/cryptoclearance I love the inheritance of Blue Larkspur from the bottom and Princequillo on the top. This would allow for a double inheritance of known large heart carriers via the x trail. Blue Larkspur tail female members have performed remarkably in the Derby. No Blue Larkspur, no Myrtlewood and no Mr Prospector or Seattle Slew. Princequillo stands alone as broodmare sire being grandad to the immortal Secretariat. Will go into Myrtlewood and family 13-c in a later post.

Horses carrying direct tail female to Blue Larkspur on the Derby Trail
Liaison

Horses carrying direct tail female to Princequillo
Consotium
Reckless Jerry
Fed Biz

With all the talk regarding stamina, IMHO horses carrying the direct tail female connections to the aforementioned stallions should be given extra consideration.
Well I have looked at Haskin's Horses and a good bit of the 397 nominated to the Triple Crown and have found some other gems to bring to a later post. Any input is welcome.

X factor
These are links to x factor articles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circula....22X_factor.22

http://www.steinbeckequine.com/pdf/T...t%201%20MD.pdf
This is quite fascinating regarding the Derby and kind of debunks the Princequillo idea and will look at Mahmoud and War Admiral
http://forums.about.com/n/pfx/forum....cing&tid=21658

http://www.pedigreepost.net/archives...DWDavidge.html
These are good reads.

This is a real good read and sums up my theories in a nutshell and reads easy
http://wingspanartsintl.com/pdf/X_Factor_PartI.pdf
and why I am stressing a direct tail female meaning on the very bottom of the 4th quarter the x trail. The horses mentioned above were direct tail female meaning the chances of the mitochondrial DNA being passed forward should be greater when doubled from the 2nd quarter (stallions dam).

Looking today at the 6th at Gulfstream 0205. 1 1/16th on the dirt. In a race loaded with pedigree power, I am looking at the :8: Ghost of Sage Cat. 1/2 sister to Desert Party GSW of 900k plus. Dam is perfectly inbred Barbizon in 2 and 4th quarters. Worktab says to me that this could cut fast fractions if asked but looks to have been rated untill the last 5f work in 1.00. Not thrilled about connections first time distance record but willing to take a chance this one is ready. No true real early speed in the race and thinks this one could steal. Dr Sinatra world renown cardiology specialist keeps this one. I understand how deep this race is from a pedigree standpoint, so this would be standing on a ledge. Taking a flyer for this one to be in the exacta. Hero or Zero. Since there is no thread for the Oaks I will post 3yo filly maidens here.

Zero looked around the obvious to find something not there. Twisted logic into a pretzel until it came up as sense. Never Involved.

As I have written earlier, I'm no expert at this pedigree stuff but always have and continue to find it fascinating. Lookin' forward to reading some of your work on this crop of Derby contenders.
~
Thanks and I did read the articles you linked. I believe the X Factor (XF) information is relatively straight forward, but correct me if I'm wrong. The XF is a large heart genetic trait transmitted through the mtDNA.

A few questions:

How many Derby winners with the XF?

Isn't the XF a genetic trait and not not an indicator of ability . . . aren't there a bunch of large heart horses that haven' won a race?

We know the scientists at Equinome discovered the speed allele, the C and the endurance allele, the T. What have scientists discovered regarding the XF?

As I have written earlier, I'm no expert at this pedigree stuff but always have and continue to find it fascinating. Lookin' forward to reading some of your work on this crop of Derby contenders.
~
Thanks and I did read the articles you linked. I believe the X Factor (XF) information is relatively straight forward, but correct me if I'm wrong. The XF is a large heart genetic trait transmitted through the mtDNA.

A few questions:

How many Derby winners with the XF?
See the article regarding http://forums.about.com/n/pfx/forum...acing&tid=21658

" Isn't the XF a genetic trait and not not an indicator of ability . . . aren't there a bunch of large heart horses that haven' won a race?"
Yes, my boss and mentor always told me that a horse is born with inherent abilities and it is up to the trainer to find those and use them to best suit the horse. Class distance and the like. I think of the Xfactor as a turbo charger if the horse has ability If you have two horses that look equal on ability the large heart is the extra umph to allow the horse to finish stronger than those without. I feel sometimes when a horse really goes all out for the win, they can really fatigue themselves sometimes to the point of figuring out "if I run my ass off and come back feeling this shitty why would I do that again". A large heart allows for better oxygen delivery to tissues but also allows for the waste products of metabolism to be cleared easier reducing fatigue and cramping from lactic acid accumulation.

We know the scientists at Equinome discovered the speed allele, the C and the endurance allele, the T. What have scientists discovered regarding the XF?
When looking for Scientific research regarding this an other subjects, I feel the Irish are so far ahead of us, mostly because the horse is more of agricultural commodity there than here. This may sound cold, but if we used horse as foodstuff in the US we would have way more research from the public sector.

Thanks for reading. My main goal of this thread is not to pick winners, although I will take em when I can. I feel through this info maybe those that read this that are breeders can make better decisions, which in turn makes all horseracing fans better off in the long run. My info is always free to the players and fans.

Bear with me
 

Using an old version of Tesiopower software with no updates since 2005, getting it out of mothballs. Have to manually input all horses with familes. Starting with Haskins Derby Dozen.
I will update when finding new info.
Starting with
Creative cause- tail female to Blue Larkspur Also of note the inbreeding to the Reine Pocahontas dam of Chieftain and Tom Rolfe- Tom Rolfe is a professional influence and is where CC gets his stamina. Stamiina is high and CD tends toward speed. Sex balanced inbreeding to Nasrullah. Strong female inbreeding to Native Dancer through 3 different grandsons. No Mr Prospector. Nice pedigree.
Will update as I go along. Have know found something productive to do while my db is handicapping .

When lookiing at the descendants of Blue Larkspur through the female sorted with a old Del Mar db I come up 18420 direct descendants. Will sort through and find the Classic horses.

Descendants of Classic note from Blue Larkspur direct female line
Crytoclearance Forest Camp Forestry Deputed Testamony Never Bend
Indian Charlie Mazel Trick Exchange Rate Fly So Free Fort Marcy
Siberian Express Jolie's Halo More Than Ready Key To The Mint
Balto Star Yankee Victor Criminal Type Grand Slam Green Dancer
Prarie Bayou Valiant Nature Polish Navy Seeking The Gold
Mecke Forward Pass Cutlass Reality Powis Castle Golden Missle Bahri
Dance Bid Bernstein Smilin Singin Sam Codex TV Lark
And the royalty
Buckpasser, Damascus, Seattle Slew, Mr Prospector, Roberto and my favorite Alydar

Pretty impressive

Descendants of War Admiral direct tail female 10928 in my old db
Classic notables
Alysheba Iron Leige Swaps Polish Navy Dixie Union Arch
Hoist The Flag Eastern Echo Dubai Millennium
Super Saver Beau Purple Magisterial Ordway Larry The Legend
Lear Fan Woodman Accelerator Bianconi Star of Cozzene
Cozzene Helmsman Gun Bow Alleged Bupers Disco Rico
Smoke Glacken TM Opera O (JPN) Althea
Horses carrying both Blue Larkspur and War Admiral directly
Buckpasser Green Desert Sea Hero Key To The Mint Golden Missile
Bernstein

Buckpasser stands out and wondering about Golden Missile mares


Mahmoud next

I'll Have Another
 

Robert Lewis winner I'll Have Another represents an War Admiral over Mahmoud cross on the bottom and comes from direct Mahmoud tail female. Arch may have a good future as a broodmare sire. The female line is very stout going back to Sea Bird (Highest ranked timeform number in Arc in History) Watch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzXPXjUcOaA
While Sea Bird did not breed on very well this line has been upgraded with strong females in Althea and Never Knock (Dam of Go for Gin). Danzig inbreeding in through strong females. Has the right inbreeding of sons of ND as Sadlers Wells and Danzig have done well crossed as well as Nijinsky II and Lyphard.
I'll Have Another has every reason to move forward and while his performance in the Lewis was not breathtaking he finished within himself.
http://www.equineline.com/Free-5X-Pe...&ASCID=1443262

I'll Have Another has the potential to go the classic distance his sire Flower Alley ran three consecutive triple digit Beyers around two turns, not to sure about his dam though. Will have to wait until April as his next start is the SA Derby.


http://www.threechimney.com/FlowerAlley/

.

What is most impressive about Flower Alley is with 2 Crops to race his offsprings AWD is already impressive

By Racing Year
Stakes GS
Year Wins Wins Wins Earned
2010 8 1 1 $605,239
2011 76 3 1 $2,004,180
*Totals 84 4 2 $2,609,419
1.26 AEI; 1.46 CI; 7.14 AWD
In 2011: 97 rnrs, 48 wnrs, 2 sw
Lifetime On Turf: 10 wins, $385,606
Avg Earnings Per Starter: $26,358
*to November 6, 2011

Mahmoud Tail female line descendants 18386. Notables include:
Affirmed Determine Majestic Prince Real Quiet Gato Del Sol Fappiano
Quiet American Secreto Quack Gallant Man Your Host
Dare And Go Honour And Glory Commendable Cannonade Ogygian
Our Native With Approval Touch Gold Jambalya Jazz Pia Star
Favorite Trick Bold Lad His Majesty Graustark John Henry
Formal Dinner Machiavellian Halo Volponi Quack Palace Music
Boones Mill It's Freezing Caller One Kona Gold El Prado
Fairy King Prawn (JPN) Johar
And the Royalty
Northern Dancer
One that is obvious to me is the disparity between the numbers between the three stallions in question. Mahmoud and Blue Larkspur both enjoyed a large book of mares that would represent some of the bluest blood in the land. War Admiral was a kept stallion by Riddle only covering those mares proven worthy by blood or political connection.
Mahmoud Story
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_(horse)
Photo
Blue Larkspur Story
http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/BlueLarkspur.html
Photo
War Admiral Story
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Admiral
Photo


Ok, so now your asking why the hell I am reading this and why is this guy rambling on about the importance of these 3 stallions( I will look at Princequillo later)? My point , the blood from these stallions mares account for 16 Derby wins since 1954 when Determine carried Mahmoud blood across the finish wire at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
Direct Inclusions
Determine (Mahmoud) who would sire Decidedly
Swaps(War Admiral)Sire of Chateaugay
Iron Leige (War Admiral)
Northern Dancer (Mahmoud) Never Sired Derby Winner in US Grandsire of Ferdinand
Forward Pass(Blue Larkspur)
Majestic Prince (Mahmoud) Sire Line of Maria's Mon (Monarchos)
Cannonade (Mahmoud) Sire of Belmont Winner Caveat
Seattle Slew(Blue Larkspur) Triple Crown Sire of Swale Sireline of AP Indy Most Prevalent Bold Ruler Sire Line
Affirmed (Mahmoud) Triple Crown
Gato Del Sol (Mahmoud)
Sea Hero (Blue Larkspur\ War Admiral)
Real Quiet (Mahmoud)
Smarty Jones(War Admiral)
Super Saver(War Admiral)

Sire of Derby Winner from Lines
Mr. Prospector (Blue Larkspur) Sire of Fusiaichi Pegasus
Sire Of Fappiano
Unbridled (Grindstone Mine That Bird) Real Quiet
Sire of Forty Niner
Funny Cide
Sire of Machiavellian
Street Sense
Sire of Gulch
Thunder Gulch

Strike the Gold and Alysheba were sired by Alydar(Blue Larkspur)
Pleasant Colony was sired by His Majesty ( Mahmoud)
Sunday Silence and Sunny's Halo were sired by Halo (Mahmoud)
Spend a Buck and SIlver Charm grandsired by Buckpasser(War Admiral)
Barbaro grandsired by Roberto (War Admiral)


I have tried to be as thorough possible and have double checked the accuracy of the data.

Mahmoud line- 9 as direct female descendants 1 through Northern Dancer 2 with Halo 1 with Determined 1 with His Majesty

War Admiral Line-8 female 2 with Buckpasser 1 with Dynaformer

Blue Larkspur-3 as direct female line 9 through Mr Prospector



38 winners of 57 Derbys since 1954 well over 50% just from 3 broodmare lines. Direct female descendants back to War Admiral, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur foundation mares through tail female.
Pretty impressive.

All from 3 broodmare lines.

Sorry 34 Derby Winners

Ironically, the Mahmoud Sire line is all but dead same with Blue Larkspur
War Admiral hangs on with Tiznow but through the daughters we get all three major sire lines of Northern Dancer Mr Prospector and Seattle Slew.
I guess this would be a conclusion of sorts before going forward to start breaking down pedigrees for this year. Have a new respect for mama's yet?

Princequillo
 

Notables from 8423 direct female lines
Sham Dare and Go Ack Ack Danzig Connection Kingmambo
Quack Hill Prince Moscow Ballet Gilded Time Honour and Glory
Cheiftain Burning Roma Tom Rolfe Sky Classic Miswaki
Tale of the Cat Smart Strike Run the Gauntlet
Robellino Mill Reef Bold Lad High Yield Bien Bien Hero's Tribute
And the big red machine
Secretariat the only Derby winner
Notice how many of the above have already been mentioned with the big 3.

Saturday
 

$150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. IT, Race 8, 3:49 p.m.), 3YO, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Tarpy's Goal (FL), J Castellano, 116, D L Romans
2. Wildcat Creek (FL), A Serpa, 116, E Plesa Jr.
3. Thunder Moccasin (KY), J R Velazquez, 116, T A Pletcher
4. Quick Wit (KY), R A Dominguez, 116, D L Romans
5. Il Villano (KY), E Trujillo, 118, S L Crowell
6. Ever So Lucky (KY), J R Leparoux, 116, J E Sheppard


Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz1lpQr7Rq9
Only two horses have been able to complete the Hutcheson Derby double
Spectacular Bid and Swale.

Breaking down the field

Tarpy's Goal(High Cotton- Terre des Hommes (IRE) by Exbourne)
Young stallion High Cotton is represented here. From first crop 6.04 AWD reflects the Juvenile distances with not very many stretching out so far.
High Cotton has potential to be strong sprinting influence getting Currency Swap winning the 7 fur Hopeful. Sire's Sire Dixie Union won the Haskell and Produced PA Derby winner Gone Astray as well as Derby hopeful Union Rags

Caught in the middle of something will finish post later tonight.

Hutcheson Done
 

Finally got a chance to crunch the pedigrees and watch replays. When reading the review, the info used was gathered using The Blood Horse and thoroughbred pedigree query and it is not as accurate as a Catalog style but for the purposes of handicapping for the thread, I am keeping cost's down.. I prefer the Comprehensive Sales Analysis by Brisnet but 20$ is a bit to steep. You used to be able to get them free at the sales and give the best picture of the famliy's race record and general worth.

$150,000*Hutcheson Stakes*(gr. IT, Race 8, 3:49 p.m.), 3YO, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Tarpy's Goal (FL), J Castellano, 116, D L Romans*
By Sharp Humor who now resides in Korea. Not a fan of inbred female line stallions for male offspring but that’s personal. Sire took similar trip winning the Swale 7fur and stretched to run2nd in the FLA derby. Fractured a knee in the Derby. Romans trained Sharp Humor. Pedigree is quite stout sporting Grassy router Exbourne and German Royalty Orsinin Derby winner Iron Leige is in quality female line that in imported and sports quality stallion selection. My concern is the line going back double to Newminster and Hermit both bleeders. I know it was a long time back but I have my crazy ways. Don’t know what happened at Saratoga. Shins or breathing or maybe the surface but did not like the rail.. Really ran against little at CD and was nursed back with a nice 5fur work on the turf and then got his N1x going all out to win by 2. Was not much left in the tank but galloped ok. Jlep rides for Sheppard. If you have confidence in Javier the 5-1 or better.
2. Wildcat Creek (FL), A Serpa, 116, E Plesa Jr.*
Wildcat Heir is what I call precocious .Bloodlines for good 2yo speedsters but when stretched out class prove poor wagers. Shackleford stayed a little farther than most from the line. Female family produced nice horse in Harlan Gr1 Sprinter.
Not much of a mover as he paddles much like a sprinter and action looked faltering when all out for second in the Pasco . Look for N2x Don’t see much reason for improvement.
3. Thunder Moccasin (KY), J R Velazquez, 116, T A Pletcher*
By Ap Warrior who went on tear in Calif as 3yo. Already showing promise a sire although nobody is stretching out yet. Tail female to La Troienne. Quality tail line including Forli and Devils Bag.. Won debut impressively and flattered by Ender Kneviel and Panthro both cruising to easy maiden scores. Came back to winners circle still pulling and looked very full of himself. Has the right to move forward just want to one more gear before future book this one. Does this one have to win today or prep for Fla Derby? Pletcher has something special and this one is mapped out. 95k bargain.
4. Quick Wit (KY), R A Dominguez, 116, D L Romans*
Romans sends out another son of Sharp Humor . Nothing special in pedigree. 32k purchase must have been from individual look. Made a big middle move in last and looked to hang a bit when passing tiring foes and moved away in the stretch with no real threat from a suspect bunch. Second maiden winner that Julien L gives up. Romans has Derby fever and wants to get there with a Sharp Humor. Might regress is pace stays hot to lane.
5. Il Villano (KY), E Trujillo, 118, S L Crowell*
By Pollard’s Vision who won the Illinois Derby and counts Blind Luck to his classic winner resume. No female names to speak of and scratching my head about the 600k sales tag.. Tried Alpha in last and ran with that one till the 1/16th pole and held on for second. Pace record shows only one tactic to employ. Go to the front and improve your position. Probably wants to sprint and just how Philly speed translates here is the question. New pilot looks to get caught outside horses as others inside want same thing.
6. Ever So Lucky (KY), J R Leparoux, 116, J E Sheppard*
One of my favorite combos of Jockey and trainer. 600k purchase for the respected Augustin stable this one looks the part of one being mapped for the Derby. Liked the hiatus at Camden in Aiken , good for a young horse. By the venerable Indian Charlie who seeks to get the classic winner with this one. Female line is the best of Farish with a triple of Something royal . Double of Gay Missle through siblings Lassie Dear and Gay Macene. See AP Indy . This is pretty special pedigree that has a strong likelihood of carrying large heart not to mention breeding potential. Has grade earnings and ran a respectable 2nd to the well regarded Gemologist in the Gr II Jockey Cup. Works are showing improving sort and Sheppard looks to Churchill. A win today would be within the scope but don’t see the onion getting peeled to fast here. Should be used as threat for Fla Derby with good effort here. Could be the nicest pedigree so far this year.

Pace Synopsis
Would see II Villano trying for the lead with Thundering Moccasin keeping that one wide . Ever So Lucky gets a good trip in the second flight and battles with Thundering Moccasin to get beat a length with a tiring Ill Villano hanging on for third with tired Wild cat Creek in 4th

Read more:*http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz1lxlVWL2y

Another pedigree winner
 

Horses carrying direct tail female to Princequillo
Consotium
Reckless Jerry
Fed Biz

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...ta-anita.aspx#

A few reports
 

Since my goal of this thread is education, here are some of the reports for today's Hutcheson
Dosages for Ever so Lucky and Thunder Moccasin using OB scale with Quality Index
7 gen pedigree for Both
Key names for Thunder Moccasin
If anybody wants a horse report for TC contenders just yell and I will post.
Feel free to ask any questions.

Here is Union Rags pedigree info

Thundering Moccasin
 

Workmanlike effort on a very poor track. No reason to take any chances this early. Pletcher has a decision to make with this efforts effort to move forward towards to longer distances.

Pedigree note.
Take a look at his dosage and notice how nicely AP Indy fits over Storm Cat.
My theory regarding the x-trail with Thunder Moccassin is that AP Indy sons will transmit through Weekend Surprise and will get high scores when bred on Storm Cat lines.The heart scores of Secretariat are of the finest quality and seem to be dominant. It is to bad he will be one of those sires that will have no male line left but I predict his inbreeding through females will rival those of the big 3.

That track is so greasy and the turf is poor today. I would not put to much stock as seeing any key races so far today. Too early in the season.
Thanks for reading.

Side note on Thunder Moccasin just noticed that AP Warrioir is from the female family of Storm Bird which is the sire of Storm Cat. Inbreeding to South Ocean is some of WIndfields finest bloodlines. See EP Taylor.

A big day for Toussaud
 

Juddmont's stellar producer Toussaud was represented by 2 fillies who look to be nicely progressing 3yos.
Nebraska for Mr Mott at AQ ran a good third against Msw going 170. I don't think this wants to go long on the dirt. Take a look below. What about that Natalma inbreeding. Juddmont has the best.
Modulate on the other hand look very game in running down foes in her first start at GP going 7 fur with J LU aboard, Modulate should make some noise on the filly classic trail. Notice the doubles of Buckpasser in the dam and that Mizzen Mast comes from Tom Fool mare line. This filly has big big future and Juddmont did a superb job with this one. See below

Sorry about being laxed in my post.Will be working on the Soutwest and El Camino Since nobody else is posting in the thread and those of you who are reading are interested in looking at new things, this is vey powerful
http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pub...inningPMTR.pdf
Ask yourself why do you handicap after readin this.

The Godfather
 

turninforhome,

I would appreciate it if you can take the time to provide your pedigree work up on El Padrino (The Godfather).

I've been takin' a hard look at him and he looks kinda interesting in a lot of different ways . . . in particular his ability to adapt to different surfaces. He has run at four different tracks and come the Risen Star this weekend, that will be five races on five different surfaces - can't forget he has trained at the Belmont training track and I believe it is Palm Meadows. No doubt it is gonna be a good one this weekend and the Pletcher horse sure looks tough. I'm lookin' forward to listening to what the trainers of Mr. Bowling and Z Dager will have to say should Mr. Pletcher amble on into the Fair Ground and make of with the Risen Star. Mind you I'm still a big fan of Z Dager, but I just can't see how they beat The Godfather.

I think It would be nice to take a look at your pedigree analysis for the top contenders in this race. Lookin' forward to reading your work. :cool:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/el+padrino9

http://www.pedigreequery.com/z+dager

http://www.pedigreequery.com/mr+bowling2


Nothin' like the Derby Trail !

Will break down top contenders for the big races as individuals (it is much easier to put in attachments. Since El Padrino is the buzz horse lets look at him
Ell Padrino - By Pulpit out of Enchanted Rock by Giant's Causeway
Bred by the good breeder Emory Hamilton (" Other top horses raced include Too Chic, Queena's dam; La Reina and Serra Lake ... Other notable horses bred include Cappuchino, Pin Stripe and Coal Play ... Purchased her first horse – Too Chic – as a yearling at a King Ranch dispersal in 1980 following the death of her grandfather in 1974 ... She paid $100,000 for the filly ... Both Too Chic and Queena won the G1 Maskette ... Another of Too Chic's daughters, G1 winner Chic Shirine, produced G2 winners Waldoboro and Tara Roma"). Wondering why Hamilton sold this one? Pletcher got a deal? Well the dam Enchanted Rock was unplaced in 1 start and looks to be the weaker of her sisters. El Padrino is first foal to make the races and I imagine dams stock has went up immensely.
Pulpit looks to be forming his own branch of the AP Indy line. What I have noticed about the Pulpits is that they perform well early on in the TC trail but yet to find one with the moxie to wear the roses. IMHO prone to leg problems as their sheer speed may be more than their body can handle. Pulpit himself locked like an early Derby winner before getting missing the big bance. Maybe the line is jinxed but I feel is has to do with being early matures and being asked to much to soon.
El Padrino won his last race impressively to the highly regarded Take Charge Indy. After that horse he beat no one. His Beyer was one of the best of the year though for this crop.
Pro's- Is peaking at the right time to make this class move. Has right connections and Castellano ships for this. While I think this horse will move forward today, he is going to be pushed to make the graded earnings list. A win today and huge effort is necessary to move towards Louisville. How he will handle the pressure of a new track, better horses and that long stretch at the FG are really the gamble here. The horse is talented and looks to have a bright future
Cons- Call me crazy but I don't like the fact that Emory sold this one. Mare is light on race record and while family is one of the better at producing fillies that run The best male runner is Soaring Empire and his record while good is a notch below his peers and his record for putting back to back races is bad.
Looking at his pedigree he is light on solid and professional influences. I am also not a big fan of inbreeding to Mr Prospector so close. If El Padrino turns out on the left front leg then he is a real Mr Prospector and while brilliant they just don't last.
Synopsis- I like his chances to run a big race, but will find out his true mettle when faced with the daunting stretch with a rider who is not really known for riding the FG.
Welcome any comments and the opinions are my own based on my own research and correct me if I am wrong please. See my reports below.
Will have more to come

Z Dager is an interesting pedigree. Free of Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer and Tom Fool is the highest % of inbreeding. This is and old schol pedigree stemming back to on old Fred Hooper line. Notice the female line goes back to Mahmoud. This line was Hoopers attempt to buid a classic horse using homebred stallions. While Mizzen Mast is more known for being a grass sire his pedigree is stamina laden and has allowed for AWD of 7.34as Mast Track and Midships are both proven stayers (grass).
IMHO Z Dager is moving along nicely and still doing things on his own. Should move forward here and I think the longer the better. So far this is Assmussen best shot at getting to CD in MAY, not taking anything away from the El Camino Real winner.
I like this pedigree.

Really amazing for pedigree nerds.
 

When analyzing Z Dager I decided to take a look at Mizzen Mast as he is showing a propensity for stayers. The result is a total throwback pedigree that would look good 50 years ago. Completely free of any Neararctic and Native Dancer and the inbreeding is back to Gainsborough, Pharos, and Phalaris all top stallions from the early 1900's. For those that use the the term outcross Mizzen Mast is almost a complete outcross on most modern Northern Dancer and Mr Prospector laden pedigrees. I will look into the crystal ball and say that Mizzen Mast has a bright future as a broodmare sire. He is a stunning animal and was a brilliant racehorse I am cheerin for Z Dager now just to see more Mizzen Mast's get bred.

The XFactor
 

I read and reread your work and the articles at the links and found the XFactor (XF) stuff rather fascinating.
~
Just for the fun of it I took a look at the four stallions, Princequillo, War Admiral, Blue Larkspur and Mahmoud, in the pedigrees of El Padrino and Z Dager. I found a total of 30 incidences in the lineage of El Padrino and 12 incidences in the lineage of Z Dager. Now I'm no pedigree expert, but I do understand that in order to pass on the XF, that stallion must be in a "passing position." If you have the time, put your pedigree eye on those two and tell me what you think. Do either of those two runners possess the XF? :cool:


It was fun to get away from the handicapping stuff and take a look at the pedigree stuff. If you have the time take at look at those two and tell me what you think, yea :ThmbUp: or nea :ThmbDown:, X or nonX. Now back to the handicappin!

Nothin like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth!

I started putting the 6 generation pedigrees with the x trail built in. With the boys the stallion is discounted and only the dam is looked at. The names that are underlined are x trails in passing position. After looking I stand corrected
Here are the x trails I have so far. When I look at the x factor on the bottom I then look at the 2nd quarter to see if the x factor genes are either inbred, linebred or replicated. So If you look at Alpha say look at his x trail then look at Beranrdini's dam to see how the lines compare. I also look more at building a family tree from the 5th dam and look at how the sire line has crossed on the family itself. I feel that saying such and such a stallion crosses well on this such broodmare line discounts the quality of the family in general. Lets face it and I have been thinking about this, pedigree is only as good as the people taking care of the horse. I think so much of the success of the big three foundation mare sires had a lot to do with nuture. Huge sprawling farms where yearlings built themselves up running with their peers fo equal quality of pedigree. Old timey horsemanship vs hot house yearlings. I digress HAving tried to dowmload the reports the x factor is propiertary to my software and cannot be reproduced but when you go to pedigree query just look at those lines that are pink.
Follow the dam and look for the underlined pedigrees. And you dont have to count occurences if you look at the pedigree analysis. It is broken down by percent inhererit inheritances and the 7m would mean 7th genreation male.
Hope this helps.

I've been reading your stuff with interest and find it curious that you and I get a lot of the same results through an entirely different process.
As was said in the Sartin book, I reduce everything to it's simplest form. I look at the forest and am not interested in the study of individual trees.

I totally respect your work and the effort put forth but it seems strange that I only glance at a pedigree for a few minutes and decide, my opinion only, what type it is. I may not be the best but I have had a lot of followers for years and a couple of clients that value my opinion for their breeding efforts.

Now the reason I'm posting is that I totally agree with your assessment of EL Padrino. Here are some others with what I call the same type pedigree; Alpha, Currency Swap, Exfactor, Hansen, Hierro, Managed Account and Reveron.

I find that this type can be very good up to 1 1/8 but have never seen one win the Derby or Belmont. They just lack stamina and there's a reason for it in my book but I won't go into it now. Alpha however, has a positive factor that may negate the weakness in these pedigrees and so far has looked good. Whether he can get a classic distance remains to be seen but I feel sure none of the others will.

PS- I also like the old time breeding of Z Dager having seen a few of the oldtimers in there run. I was really surprised to see him as close to the pace as he was last time.

Our problem lies in the fact that most of the prep races are won by brilliant horses that just can't get the derby distance so I often think it's a waste of time to pedigree handicap the preps.

Nice thread you have going. :ThmbUp:

"Our problem lies in the fact that most of the prep races are won by brilliant horses that just can't get the derby distance so I often think it's a waste of time to pedigree handicap the preps."

Agreed in spades. So much pressure on the young horses built on glass foundations to perform each prep to the highest ability to get to the big dance.
So much of that brilliant blood is hard to keep fit and sound.Hard to get them fit for the distance without worrying about something rattling loose. I also look for soundness as observed by starts for the female families. Seeing horses with 50+ starts in family is always good regardless of class. I feel this has much to do with passing on confrimation.
I will never forget the words of a vet I used to work with. He had the chance to work with Mr Prospector and his offspring while a student. He always said" A Mr Prospector with good confrimation is worthless. All of his best are turned out on the left front and that is the tell"

"I totally respect your work and the effort put forth but it seems strange that I only glance at a pedigree for a few minutes and decide, my opinion only, what type it is. I may not be the best but I have had a lot of followers for years and a couple of clients that value my opinion for their breeding efforts."

After rereading this and reading your blog, It looks like your knowledge is pretty stout. Trying to understand what you mean by the strange part. Looking at a pedigree for only a few minutes and making a decision comes from years of understanding how the lines are put together. Breeders names etc, understanding age differences between parents to see at what point of the stallions career did the breeding take place. Mares get bred to high dollar stallions for 3 reasons Race record Family or foolish owners with more money than sense. I look back deep into the female line and look at the owners and what they did with it. Would love to see any examples of horses that you have advised on the breeding to see what your ideas are. Thanks for the input.

The Risen Star
 

I have debated all week on how to present something informative, easy to read, and not to crazy on the pedigree info as to dilute the real horse in question. All while working on a slow 256mb machine that is absolutely killing ever inch of patience I own but my old software and DB are very difficult to move and god forbid I would ever loose it. Enough about that. I am going to break down the races by concentrating on those horses which IMHO have a chance to move forward. On more than one occasion, I have typed in all the horses from the EFW and that is no longer and option as I would rather pay for it.

Lets go racing

Saturday will bring us the Risen Star. Never been a fan of horses that use the FG early preps as a path to the Derby. The Risen Star has not produced a Derby winner using data going back to 1973. Is this relevant to this year? We will see.
$300,000 Risen Star Stakes (gr. II, Race 11, 4:55 p.m.), 3YOs, 1 1/16 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Afford (KY), S Bridgmohan, 116, G Geier Homebred for Tafel who won Derby with Sire Street Sense. Liked the long stretch at Haw and showed promise going two turns last time. Dont know if he is of classic quality yet but aspirations are high. Tafel bred dam who was placed at 3. Interesting though is the second dam White Jasmine inbred to the matron Padilla perfectly through x trail. Look at this produce record. Would love a mare like this. http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/white+jasmine
This one looks for a N2x later I believe as the rail does not help. Goes as fast and far possible but lacks seasoning.

2. Optimizer (KY), C H Marquez Jr., 116, D W Lukas Lukas with another morning glory Why the rider switch Maybe after getting routed here Lukas will ship to GP for the FLA Derby and have a rider ready to go. (Sarcasm)
3. a-Mr. Bowling (KY), R Albarado, 120, J L Jones I am really having a hard time getting over his pedigree. Poor quality and very short. See below. IMHO this one served the purpose of selling early seasons to Istan, for owner and will be dropping out of contention after this. Watch for him at Delaware later this year. Sorry Larry.
4. Z Dager (KY), S J Sellers, 116, S M Asmussen I have pretty much broken him down earlier in the thread. 116 and jock who's career needs this horse to carry him to Louisville. Should move forward here and I hope Sellers can get this to Churchill.
5. Ted's Folly (OK), R Zimmerman, 120, W L Brown Asking way to much from this guy and squeezing the lemon dry.
6. b-Adena's Chance (FL), R E Eramia, 116, G Dorochenko 3k sale horse has returned for owner but not today
7. b-Hero of Order (KY), J Graham, 116, G Dorochenko See above for same comment
8. El Padrino (KY), J Castellano, 116, T A Pletcher All eyes on this guy as Pletcher has to prove that last was no fluke. See earlier in the thread for info.
Will know more about this one at the 1/8th pole of a long stretch
9. a-Mark Valeski (KY), R Napravnik, 116, J L Jones This might be the sleeper for Larry While his pedigree looks plain on the top Proud Citizen is from the female family of Northern Dancer has produced Proud Spell for Jones and Breton. What impresses me most is the lineage of his female family. A Whitney family that is truly native to America family A1. Goes back to Man o War and Mahmoud through females and the names are the best sires money could buy. Farnsworth were no dummies when they bought the 2 dam See record http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/true+to+romeo. This is the first foal bred from the Mr Prospector sire line and 1 to 3 quarter with a 3x4m should not bother soundness. This is Jones Derby horse and the 112 blowout is affirmation that Larry has a sound one that will take the training necessary for this long drive to CD.
10. Shared Property (KY), L R Goncalves, 120, T M Amoss . I just don't see Amoss with a real Derby threat this year. Will look forward to his expertise on TVG
11. Tizanexpense (KY), M Mena, 116, M J Maker 45k buyback is being asked to do a lot here. Did move forward against winners but this is a big jump a would need to overcome post and lack of seasoning. I would look for this guy at TP later with the Tiznow.
a - Brereton C. Jones coupled entry
b - Gennadi & Irina Dorochenko coupled entry

My picks
:1a: :7: :5:
Will try to bust of the other big races as I get time. FOY is huge and almost a spoiler for the Derby. Good Cappin

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz1nHbdDt6I

Realized the above is numbered by Post Position not program number. Sorry for the inconvenience.

FOY
 

The Risen Star went as expected. Was impressed with the grit of the top two as they had their won little match race in the stretch. I see a bright future for Mark Valeski and Larry is just the guy to get him there. El Padrino ran a big race and showed he belongs but I feel he is still second string for Pletcher. I am still having trouble validating anyoone from the LA series as most have done poorly in the Derby. LA Derby next and I expect Mark to be there. Pletchers horse has earnings now and we will see how he juggles this one. Z Dager was pretty much out of contention at the top of the stretch but ran on well for third. Expect him back for the LA Derby as he needs earnings. on to the FOY. Have not followed the horses in the Borderland so would not do it justice.

STAKES
Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (Grade II)
http://www.equibase.com/images/line.gif Purse $400,000. (Plus $100,000 – FTBOA - FL TB Owner Brdr Assoc Fund). For Three Year Olds. One And One Sixteenth Miles.
P#PPHorseVirtual
StableA/SMedJockeyWgtTrainerM/L
11Neck 'n Neck (KY) 3/CLJ Lezcano116I R Wilkes15/1
22Algorithms (KY) 3/CLJ Castellano120T A Pletcher8/5
33Fort Loudon (FL) 3/CLR Maragh120S I Gold20/1
44Casual Trick (KY) 3/RLC S Nakatani116N P Zito8/1
55Discreet Dancer (FL) 3/CLJ R Velazquez116T A Pletcher3/1
66News Pending (KY) 3/CLK J Desormeaux116D L Romans20/1
77Union Rags (KY) 3/CLJ R Leparoux122M R Matz2/1
88Csaba (KY) 3/CLP Lopez116P A Gleaves20/1http://www.equibase.com/images/line.gif Owners: 1 - A. Stevens Miles Jr.; 2 - Starlight Racing; 3 - Jacks or Better Farm, Inc.; 4 - Robert V. LaPenta; 5 - E. Paul Robsham Stables, LLC; 6 - Klaravich Stables, Inc. and William H. Lawrence; 7 - Chadds Ford Stable; 8 - Bruce Hollander and Cary Shapoff
http://www.equibase.com/images/line.gif Breeders: 1 - A. Stevens Miles Jr.; 2 - Oakbrook Farm; 3 - Jacks or Better Farm Inc.; 4 - W. S. Farish; 5 - E. Paul Robsham Stable, LLC; 6 - Jayde, Inc; 7 - Phyllis M. Wyeth; 8 - Kenneth L. Ramsey & Sarah K. Ramsey
http://www.equibase.com/images/line.gif Equipment Changes: 1 - Neck 'n Neck - Blinkers On
PPS http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ans_763079.pdf

The road starts her for the highly touted Union Rags, does he have to win? NO Does he need a big effort? YES. Is he going to be challenged? YES This is the toughest oif the preps so far IMHO.
1 Neck n Neck While his finishings have not garnered him but one win he always makes that late run. Not sure what the blinkers are gonna do here but Lezcano has project going here and the horse has been getting better LP figures each race. This looks to be this one's last chance and Wilkes is pulling out all the stops. While Storm Boot shortens him up his deeper family includes Broad Brush, Roberto, and Key To the Mint. I don't like him to fill and exacta but he is deperate for graded earnings and Jose sticks. Exotic chance if the pace is a meltdown.
2Algorithms- Have worked up his pedigree earlier to start the thread. While his race in the Holy Bull was good effort. He made his move early and once passed Hansen he was home free. Will understand his heart a little more today as he does not get such an easy trip. Still has yet to find a bottom and I feel this one is Pletcher's best bet to get another Derby win. Notice I said Pletcher's best chance. Should run big today and will need to look someone in the eye at the 1/8th and pass them to prove he has moxie as he has talent.
3) Fort Loudon- Gold is pushing it with this one. He is a nice animal but what do you do with him. Does he belong. IMHO no. But he is three and is a male so connections take thier best shot. Would look for FLA breds later at Calder. Beat Argentine Tangotwice and that one was soundly beaten again the other day.
4) Casual Trick- Johhny V is gone and throw out last. Nakatani will ride this one aggressive and Zito has him cranked up. Do or Die and has stout pedigree with Manilla and Charlottesville in female line. Will look to hang on for a piece but running style is redundant in here and not liking his chances to improve enough for win. Does like a one turn mile but has yet to run a classy one at two turns. GP Derby was good but field was nothing like today. Would look for this one to be a one turn miler.
5) Discreet Dancer-Has done everything right so far all at one turn. Can he stretch out? 1/2 brother to Travelin Man, I say no He is fast as proven by Track Record but is one dimentional IMHO. Female family of AP Indy and Summer Squall and boasts some nice inbreeding including the 1/2 sisters Bold Sequence and Gold Digger. Has the right pedigree but needs to show ability to rate.
6) News Pending. Switches to Kent D after big close on the weeds. Not convinced this one like the dirt as evidenced by his one the lead 2nd at Bel last fall. Raconteur who ran 3rd in that race has turned out to be nice horse but would like to see Rajiv stay to finish teaching this one. Looks like the turf races were teaching races but numbers are a bit low for the win. Chance for exotics with a patient ride.
7) Union Rags. Can he beat these off the shelf? Was his 2yo year for real? Wwill find out today. I have looked at this one earlier in the tread. Horse is working like a monster but he really does not have to be pushed to hard here as he has the earnings. Destroyed Alpha in the Champagne and then made a big run at Hansen only to come up short in the BC JUV. Will need to prove that he has more than a middle move and will need to improve on the LP side. Top 3 finish but does not need to win. Iffy call.
8)Csaba- Thank you Mr Gleaves for helping to fill the race but is way overmatched here. I don't see it happening but takes a shot. Nothing to really recommend on pedigree other than going back to Discovery but Kitten's Joy over War Chant is grass IMHO

My picks
:2: :7: :1:

Comments are always welcome and if you want a horse looked at just yell and I will try and get it out there for you. and good cappin.

We are close I've got:

2,5,7

Breaking News
 

Algorithms Out of Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth
02/26/2012

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL – Starlight Racing’s Algorithms, the 8-5 favorite in today’s Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth, has been scratched from the race due to a popped splint in his right front leg.

“The colt has been training beautifully,” said trainer Todd Pletcher in a statement. “It’s an unfortunate situation. We’ll monitor him closely and see how he responds.”