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Old 02-05-2012, 04:35 AM   #1
turninforhome10
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TCB Blood files for 2009 Crop

Since we have a lot of time and questions regarding this years crop and I am trying to get back into analyzing pedigrees again for breeding season, thought I would do something I did for a farm I last worked. I will try and break down the pedigrees as I understand them and present the horse with some history and ancestor races.
Sometimes seeing a name in a pedigree can change an opinion especially when a horse is being asked to do something for the first time as evidenced by Algorithms in the slop. When I saw the forecast for the Holy Bull and remembering when I worked up Cryptoclearance how he ran in the Widener in 88 granted he was 5 at the time but the moves were similar. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ji43...feature=related
I am a huge fan of Cryptoclearance mostly because of his female family. http://www.pedigreequery.com/cryptoclearance I love the inheritance of Blue Larkspur from the bottom and Princequillo on the top. This would allow for a double inheritance of known large heart carriers via the x trail. Blue Larkspur tail female members have performed remarkably in the Derby. No Blue Larkspur, no Myrtlewood and no Mr Prospector or Seattle Slew. Princequillo stands alone as broodmare sire being grandad to the immortal Secretariat. Will go into Myrtlewood and family 13-c in a later post.

Horses carrying direct tail female to Blue Larkspur on the Derby Trail
Liaison

Horses carrying direct tail female to Princequillo
Consotium
Reckless Jerry
Fed Biz

With all the talk regarding stamina, IMHO horses carrying the direct tail female connections to the aforementioned stallions should be given extra consideration.
Well I have looked at Haskin's Horses and a good bit of the 397 nominated to the Triple Crown and have found some other gems to bring to a later post. Any input is welcome.

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Old 02-05-2012, 05:05 AM   #2
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X factor
These are links to x factor articles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circul..._.22X_factor.22

http://www.steinbeckequine.com/pdf/...rt%201%20MD.pdf
This is quite fascinating regarding the Derby and kind of debunks the Princequillo idea and will look at Mahmoud and War Admiral
http://forums.about.com/n/pfx/forum...acing&tid=21658

http://www.pedigreepost.net/archive...rDWDavidge.html
These are good reads.

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Old 02-05-2012, 05:32 AM   #3
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This is a real good read and sums up my theories in a nutshell and reads easy
http://wingspanartsintl.com/pdf/X_Factor_PartI.pdf
and why I am stressing a direct tail female meaning on the very bottom of the 4th quarter the x trail. The horses mentioned above were direct tail female meaning the chances of the mitochondrial DNA being passed forward should be greater when doubled from the 2nd quarter (stallions dam).
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Old 02-05-2012, 01:20 PM   #4
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Looking today at the 6th at Gulfstream 0205. 1 1/16th on the dirt. In a race loaded with pedigree power, I am looking at the Ghost of Sage Cat. 1/2 sister to Desert Party GSW of 900k plus. Dam is perfectly inbred Barbizon in 2 and 4th quarters. Worktab says to me that this could cut fast fractions if asked but looks to have been rated untill the last 5f work in 1.00. Not thrilled about connections first time distance record but willing to take a chance this one is ready. No true real early speed in the race and thinks this one could steal. Dr Sinatra world renown cardiology specialist keeps this one. I understand how deep this race is from a pedigree standpoint, so this would be standing on a ledge. Taking a flyer for this one to be in the exacta. Hero or Zero. Since there is no thread for the Oaks I will post 3yo filly maidens here.

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Old 02-05-2012, 04:09 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by turninforhome10
Looking today at the 6th at Gulfstream 0205. 1 1/16th on the dirt. In a race loaded with pedigree power, I am looking at the Ghost of Sage Cat. 1/2 sister to Desert Party GSW of 900k plus. Dam is perfectly inbred Barbizon in 2 and 4th quarters. Worktab says to me that this could cut fast fractions if asked but looks to have been rated untill the last 5f work in 1.00. Not thrilled about connections first time distance record but willing to take a chance this one is ready. No true real early speed in the race and thinks this one could steal. Dr Sinatra world renown cardiology specialist keeps this one. I understand how deep this race is from a pedigree standpoint, so this would be standing on a ledge. Taking a flyer for this one to be in the exacta. Hero or Zero. Since there is no thread for the Oaks I will post 3yo filly maidens here.


Zero looked around the obvious to find something not there. Twisted logic into a pretzel until it came up as sense. Never Involved.
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Old 02-06-2012, 12:10 AM   #6
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As I have written earlier, I'm no expert at this pedigree stuff but always have and continue to find it fascinating. Lookin' forward to reading some of your work on this crop of Derby contenders.
~
Thanks and I did read the articles you linked. I believe the X Factor (XF) information is relatively straight forward, but correct me if I'm wrong. The XF is a large heart genetic trait transmitted through the mtDNA.

A few questions:

How many Derby winners with the XF?

Isn't the XF a genetic trait and not not an indicator of ability . . . aren't there a bunch of large heart horses that haven' won a race?

We know the scientists at Equinome discovered the speed allele, the C and the endurance allele, the T. What have scientists discovered regarding the XF?
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Old 02-06-2012, 02:16 AM   #7
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As I have written earlier, I'm no expert at this pedigree stuff but always have and continue to find it fascinating. Lookin' forward to reading some of your work on this crop of Derby contenders.
~
Thanks and I did read the articles you linked. I believe the X Factor (XF) information is relatively straight forward, but correct me if I'm wrong. The XF is a large heart genetic trait transmitted through the mtDNA.

A few questions:

How many Derby winners with the XF?
See the article regarding http://forums.about.com/n/pfx/forum...acing&tid=21658

" Isn't the XF a genetic trait and not not an indicator of ability . . . aren't there a bunch of large heart horses that haven' won a race?"
Yes, my boss and mentor always told me that a horse is born with inherent abilities and it is up to the trainer to find those and use them to best suit the horse. Class distance and the like. I think of the Xfactor as a turbo charger if the horse has ability If you have two horses that look equal on ability the large heart is the extra umph to allow the horse to finish stronger than those without. I feel sometimes when a horse really goes all out for the win, they can really fatigue themselves sometimes to the point of figuring out "if I run my ass off and come back feeling this shitty why would I do that again". A large heart allows for better oxygen delivery to tissues but also allows for the waste products of metabolism to be cleared easier reducing fatigue and cramping from lactic acid accumulation.

We know the scientists at Equinome discovered the speed allele, the C and the endurance allele, the T. What have scientists discovered regarding the XF?
When looking for Scientific research regarding this an other subjects, I feel the Irish are so far ahead of us, mostly because the horse is more of agricultural commodity there than here. This may sound cold, but if we used horse as foodstuff in the US we would have way more research from the public sector.

Thanks for reading. My main goal of this thread is not to pick winners, although I will take em when I can. I feel through this info maybe those that read this that are breeders can make better decisions, which in turn makes all horseracing fans better off in the long run. My info is always free to the players and fans.

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Old 02-06-2012, 12:35 PM   #8
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Bear with me

Using an old version of Tesiopower software with no updates since 2005, getting it out of mothballs. Have to manually input all horses with familes. Starting with Haskins Derby Dozen.
I will update when finding new info.
Starting with
Creative cause- tail female to Blue Larkspur Also of note the inbreeding to the Reine Pocahontas dam of Chieftain and Tom Rolfe- Tom Rolfe is a professional influence and is where CC gets his stamina. Stamiina is high and CD tends toward speed. Sex balanced inbreeding to Nasrullah. Strong female inbreeding to Native Dancer through 3 different grandsons. No Mr Prospector. Nice pedigree.
Will update as I go along. Have know found something productive to do while my db is handicapping .
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Old 02-06-2012, 04:15 PM   #9
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When lookiing at the descendants of Blue Larkspur through the female sorted with a old Del Mar db I come up 18420 direct descendants. Will sort through and find the Classic horses.
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Old 02-06-2012, 05:56 PM   #10
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Descendants of Classic note from Blue Larkspur direct female line
Crytoclearance Forest Camp Forestry Deputed Testamony Never Bend
Indian Charlie Mazel Trick Exchange Rate Fly So Free Fort Marcy
Siberian Express Jolie's Halo More Than Ready Key To The Mint
Balto Star Yankee Victor Criminal Type Grand Slam Green Dancer
Prarie Bayou Valiant Nature Polish Navy Seeking The Gold
Mecke Forward Pass Cutlass Reality Powis Castle Golden Missle Bahri
Dance Bid Bernstein Smilin Singin Sam Codex TV Lark
And the royalty
Buckpasser, Damascus, Seattle Slew, Mr Prospector, Roberto and my favorite Alydar

Pretty impressive

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Old 02-06-2012, 11:39 PM   #11
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Descendants of War Admiral direct tail female 10928 in my old db
Classic notables
Alysheba Iron Leige Swaps Polish Navy Dixie Union Arch
Hoist The Flag Eastern Echo Dubai Millennium
Super Saver Beau Purple Magisterial Ordway Larry The Legend
Lear Fan Woodman Accelerator Bianconi Star of Cozzene
Cozzene Helmsman Gun Bow Alleged Bupers Disco Rico
Smoke Glacken TM Opera O (JPN) Althea
Horses carrying both Blue Larkspur and War Admiral directly
Buckpasser Green Desert Sea Hero Key To The Mint Golden Missile
Bernstein

Buckpasser stands out and wondering about Golden Missile mares


Mahmoud next

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Old 02-07-2012, 01:21 AM   #12
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I'll Have Another

Robert Lewis winner I'll Have Another represents an War Admiral over Mahmoud cross on the bottom and comes from direct Mahmoud tail female. Arch may have a good future as a broodmare sire. The female line is very stout going back to Sea Bird (Highest ranked timeform number in Arc in History) Watch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzXPXjUcOaA
While Sea Bird did not breed on very well this line has been upgraded with strong females in Althea and Never Knock (Dam of Go for Gin). Danzig inbreeding in through strong females. Has the right inbreeding of sons of ND as Sadlers Wells and Danzig have done well crossed as well as Nijinsky II and Lyphard.
I'll Have Another has every reason to move forward and while his performance in the Lewis was not breathtaking he finished within himself.
http://www.equineline.com/Free-5X-P...r&ASCID=1443262
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:05 AM   #13
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I'll Have Another has the potential to go the classic distance his sire Flower Alley ran three consecutive triple digit Beyers around two turns, not to sure about his dam though. Will have to wait until April as his next start is the SA Derby.


http://www.threechimney.com/FlowerAlley/

.

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Old 02-07-2012, 12:33 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redshift1
I'll Have Another has the potential to go the classic distance his sire Flower Alley ran three consecutive triple digit Beyers around two turns, not to sure about his dam though. Will have to wait until April as his next start is the SA Derby.


http://www.threechimney.com/FlowerAlley/

.

What is most impressive about Flower Alley is with 2 Crops to race his offsprings AWD is already impressive

By Racing Year
Stakes GS
Year Wins Wins Wins Earned
2010 8 1 1 $605,239
2011 76 3 1 $2,004,180
*Totals 84 4 2 $2,609,419
1.26 AEI; 1.46 CI; 7.14 AWD
In 2011: 97 rnrs, 48 wnrs, 2 sw
Lifetime On Turf: 10 wins, $385,606
Avg Earnings Per Starter: $26,358
*to November 6, 2011
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Old 02-08-2012, 06:12 AM   #15
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Mahmoud Tail female line descendants 18386. Notables include:
Affirmed Determine Majestic Prince Real Quiet Gato Del Sol Fappiano
Quiet American Secreto Quack Gallant Man Your Host
Dare And Go Honour And Glory Commendable Cannonade Ogygian
Our Native With Approval Touch Gold Jambalya Jazz Pia Star
Favorite Trick Bold Lad His Majesty Graustark John Henry
Formal Dinner Machiavellian Halo Volponi Quack Palace Music
Boones Mill It's Freezing Caller One Kona Gold El Prado
Fairy King Prawn (JPN) Johar
And the Royalty
Northern Dancer
One that is obvious to me is the disparity between the numbers between the three stallions in question. Mahmoud and Blue Larkspur both enjoyed a large book of mares that would represent some of the bluest blood in the land. War Admiral was a kept stallion by Riddle only covering those mares proven worthy by blood or political connection.
Mahmoud Story
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_(horse)
Photo
Blue Larkspur Story
http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/BlueLarkspur.html
Photo
War Admiral Story
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Admiral
Photo


Ok, so now your asking why the hell I am reading this and why is this guy rambling on about the importance of these 3 stallions( I will look at Princequillo later)? My point , the blood from these stallions mares account for 16 Derby wins since 1954 when Determine carried Mahmoud blood across the finish wire at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
Direct Inclusions
Determine (Mahmoud) who would sire Decidedly
Swaps(War Admiral)Sire of Chateaugay
Iron Leige (War Admiral)
Northern Dancer (Mahmoud) Never Sired Derby Winner in US Grandsire of Ferdinand
Forward Pass(Blue Larkspur)
Majestic Prince (Mahmoud) Sire Line of Maria's Mon (Monarchos)
Cannonade (Mahmoud) Sire of Belmont Winner Caveat
Seattle Slew(Blue Larkspur) Triple Crown Sire of Swale Sireline of AP Indy Most Prevalent Bold Ruler Sire Line
Affirmed (Mahmoud) Triple Crown
Gato Del Sol (Mahmoud)
Sea Hero (Blue Larkspur\ War Admiral)
Real Quiet (Mahmoud)
Smarty Jones(War Admiral)
Super Saver(War Admiral)

Sire of Derby Winner from Lines
Mr. Prospector (Blue Larkspur) Sire of Fusiaichi Pegasus
Sire Of Fappiano
Unbridled (Grindstone Mine That Bird) Real Quiet
Sire of Forty Niner
Funny Cide
Sire of Machiavellian
Street Sense
Sire of Gulch
Thunder Gulch

Strike the Gold and Alysheba were sired by Alydar(Blue Larkspur)
Pleasant Colony was sired by His Majesty ( Mahmoud)
Sunday Silence and Sunny's Halo were sired by Halo (Mahmoud)
Spend a Buck and SIlver Charm grandsired by Buckpasser(War Admiral)
Barbaro grandsired by Roberto (War Admiral)


I have tried to be as thorough possible and have double checked the accuracy of the data.

Mahmoud line- 9 as direct female descendants 1 through Northern Dancer 2 with Halo 1 with Determined 1 with His Majesty

War Admiral Line-8 female 2 with Buckpasser 1 with Dynaformer

Blue Larkspur-3 as direct female line 9 through Mr Prospector



38 winners of 57 Derbys since 1954 well over 50% just from 3 broodmare lines. Direct female descendants back to War Admiral, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur foundation mares through tail female.
Pretty impressive.

All from 3 broodmare lines.

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