- - PLACE PAYOUT
( http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=54154)
| gambler844 |
01-20-2009 11:50 AM |
PLACE PAYOUT
Im trying to figure a good way to get an approximate place payout from the win payout.
Is 40% of win a good estimate of pace?
Thanks for any help
ed
|
| cj's dad |
01-20-2009 12:04 PM |
40% ? no
Quote:
Originally Posted by gambler844
Im trying to figure a good way to get an approximate place payout from the win payout.
Is 40% of win a good estimate of pace?
Thanks for any help
ed
|
I don't know of any hard and fast rule of thumb- I do know it relies on 3 things after the takeout and that is:
1-amount bet into the place pool
2-amount wagered on your selection assuming he runs 1st or 2nd,
3-the amount wagered on the other horse that runs 1st or 2nd.
There used to be a couple of guys (w/calculators) who sat in the stands at Laurel watching the tote and would estimate the show payoffs and wager or not according to their projections. seemed like a lot of work to me, but then I am not a place or show bettor. |
| Dave Schwartz |
01-20-2009 12:15 PM |
win odds x .40
|
| cj's dad |
01-20-2009 12:32 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
win odds x .40
|
That's simply not correct. |
| LottaKash |
01-20-2009 12:34 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
win odds x .40
|
Yes, Dave thanks for the reassurance on that, as I am a win/place bettor in many cases, and that is what I shoot for....I made that up on my own, but it is nice to know that I got it right, from one who might know about such things......It has worked for me and has saved many a win bet....:jump:
best, |
| gambler844 |
01-20-2009 12:43 PM |
Thanks Dave
ed
|
| cj's dad |
01-20-2009 12:44 PM |
LK - I went over the price payouts on the NYRA web site for the last 10 racing days and that formula does not add up.
As I stated before, I am not a place bettor, but I figured that at 40% I may have to readjust my thinking so I did a little research and found the 40% doesn't hold up. Maybe 10 racing days approx 90 races is not an acurate sample but it sold me.
|
| Dave Schwartz |
01-20-2009 12:49 PM |
CJ D,
0.40 x win odds was an approxiamtion that was handed to me many years ago. As I recall, I tested it at one time and found that in medium-to-low odds ranges it was reasonably sound.
So, what is the average relationship between win odds and place odds?
What figure do you find would work?
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
PS: I just ran a 5,000 race sample and found that in horses under 7/1:
win pay = $7.25 2.62:1
place pay = $4.00 1.00:1
ratio appears to be 0.38
|
0.4 is as good of a one size fits all figure as any.
|
| Dave Schwartz |
01-20-2009 01:06 PM |
It appears that accross all odds ranges in that sample the number drops to 0.366.
BTW, I used the win odds of ALL horses relative to the place PAY.
I would think that one who was so inclined could easily create a more complex formula that relates win odds to place pay (i.e. pay = base number + WinOdds x multiplier).
|
| banacek |
01-20-2009 03:44 PM |
Dave, a couple of years ago, you posted a chart with the average place and show pays for each range of win odds. I imagine it has changed a bit because of net pool pricing..any chance of an update?
|
| Dave Schwartz |
01-20-2009 04:28 PM |
Sure. I am building a bunch of tables starting tomorrow. I will do just that.
Dave
|
| banacek |
01-20-2009 04:29 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Sure. I am building a bunch of tables starting tomorrow. I will do just that.
Dave
|
Thanks Dave! |
| Dave Schwartz |
01-20-2009 04:40 PM |
WIn Bets
Code:
Last 25,000 races
201-PubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/20 7 6 85.7 $1.80 3.97 1.11 1.54
1/9 36 30 83.3 $1.91 4.32 1.13 1.61
1/5 139 99 71.2 $1.80 4.57 1.05 1.56
1/3 272 185 68.0 $1.82 4.48 1.08 1.57
2/5 492 293 59.6 $1.71 3.88 1.02 1.45
1/2 736 415 56.4 $1.75 3.74 1.03 1.45
3/5 1,914 973 50.8 $1.73 3.54 1.02 1.42
4/5 2,585 1,137 44.0 $1.66 3.12 0.98 1.34
1 2,839 1,175 41.4 $1.72 2.97 1.02 1.36
6/5 3,044 1,143 37.5 $1.69 2.72 1.02 1.33
7/5 1,679 586 34.9 $1.70 2.53 1.01 1.30
3/2 1,625 534 32.9 $1.65 2.38 0.99 1.26
8/5 3,529 1,129 32.0 $1.70 2.36 1.02 1.28
9/5 3,546 1,059 29.9 $1.71 2.23 1.02 1.26
2 9,296 2,412 25.9 $1.66 1.95 0.99 1.20
5/2 8,941 1,943 21.7 $1.61 1.67 0.96 1.12
3 8,238 1,528 18.5 $1.56 1.43 0.93 1.06
7/2 7,707 1,387 18.0 $1.68 1.40 1.00 1.11
4 6,827 1,055 15.5 $1.61 1.21 0.95 1.03
9/2 6,388 900 14.1 $1.60 1.11 0.95 1.01
5 11,067 1,383 12.5 $1.60 0.99 0.95 0.98
6 9,535 1,035 10.9 $1.62 0.87 0.96 0.96
7 8,297 725 8.7 $1.47 0.70 0.87 0.84
8 7,215 618 8.6 $1.62 0.69 0.96 0.90
9 6,659 485 7.3 $1.52 0.59 0.90 0.83
10 5,791 386 6.7 $1.52 0.54 0.90 0.81
11 5,000 314 6.3 $1.56 0.51 0.92 0.81
12 4,550 246 5.4 $1.45 0.45 0.86 0.75
13 3,980 189 4.7 $1.37 0.39 0.81 0.69
14 3,723 196 5.3 $1.64 0.43 0.96 0.80
15 3,264 137 4.2 $1.40 0.34 0.81 0.67
16 3,046 129 4.2 $1.47 0.35 0.87 0.71
17 2,775 127 4.6 $1.72 0.38 1.00 0.81
18 2,594 91 3.5 $1.35 0.29 0.80 0.63
19 2,482 85 3.4 $1.40 0.29 0.83 0.65
20 2,108 82 3.9 $1.69 0.33 0.98 0.77
21 2,104 61 2.9 $1.28 0.24 0.77 0.59
22 1,953 58 3.0 $1.36 0.25 0.82 0.62
23 1,880 54 2.9 $1.39 0.24 0.83 0.62
24 1,766 44 2.5 $1.27 0.21 0.75 0.56
29 7,651 215 2.8 $1.58 0.24 0.94 0.68
34 6,145 117 1.9 $1.26 0.17 0.75 0.53
39 4,800 70 1.5 $1.07 0.13 0.66 0.44
40 4,043 52 1.3 $1.10 0.12 0.66 0.44
45 3,332 46 1.4 $1.33 0.12 0.79 0.50
50 5,163 45 0.9 $0.95 0.08 0.57 0.36
60 3,593 23 0.6 $0.84 0.06 0.49 0.30
70 2,583 12 0.5 $0.64 0.05 0.41 0.24
80 1,808 8 0.4 $0.76 0.04 0.45 0.25
90 1,155 3 0.3 $0.67 0.03 0.29 0.18
99 2,314 6 0.3 $0.67 0.03 0.36 0.20
Total 202,216 25,031 12.4 $1.48 1.00 0.96
Place Bets
Code:
Last 25,000 races
201-PubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
PLACE BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/20 5 4 80.0 $1.68 2.65 0.74 1.12
1/9 32 30 93.8 $2.06 4.32 1.13 1.65
1/5 139 122 87.8 $1.98 5.64 1.29 1.86
1/3 267 223 83.5 $1.88 5.41 1.31 1.83
2/5 485 385 79.4 $1.85 5.10 1.34 1.82
1/2 727 559 76.9 $1.83 5.03 1.39 1.84
3/5 1,907 1,383 72.5 $1.81 5.03 1.45 1.87
4/5 2,574 1,758 68.3 $1.80 4.83 1.52 1.90
1 2,832 1,783 63.0 $1.77 4.51 1.55 1.88
6/5 3,036 1,813 59.7 $1.77 4.31 1.61 1.89
7/5 1,674 946 56.5 $1.72 4.08 1.63 1.86
3/2 1,622 927 57.2 $1.78 4.14 1.71 1.93
8/5 3,517 1,902 54.1 $1.73 3.98 1.71 1.90
9/5 3,539 1,829 51.7 $1.74 3.85 1.76 1.91
2 9,287 4,450 47.9 $1.72 3.60 1.83 1.91
5/2 8,932 3,780 42.3 $1.65 3.24 1.86 1.86
3 8,232 3,171 38.5 $1.64 2.97 1.92 1.84
7/2 7,694 2,797 36.4 $1.65 2.82 2.03 1.88
4 6,821 2,209 32.4 $1.57 2.52 2.00 1.79
9/2 6,380 1,959 30.7 $1.59 2.41 2.07 1.80
5 11,060 3,121 28.2 $1.59 2.23 2.15 1.80
6 9,531 2,443 25.6 $1.62 2.05 2.25 1.81
7 8,292 1,892 22.8 $1.58 1.83 2.28 1.76
8 7,214 1,475 20.4 $1.56 1.66 2.28 1.72
9 6,655 1,218 18.3 $1.52 1.49 2.26 1.65
10 5,790 994 17.2 $1.53 1.39 2.32 1.65
11 4,998 799 16.0 $1.52 1.31 2.35 1.63
12 4,548 713 15.7 $1.57 1.29 2.48 1.68
13 3,978 546 13.7 $1.46 1.12 2.34 1.55
14 3,721 491 13.2 $1.50 1.08 2.40 1.57
15 3,264 404 12.4 $1.46 1.02 2.40 1.53
16 3,046 346 11.4 $1.43 0.94 2.34 1.48
17 2,775 317 11.4 $1.49 0.95 2.48 1.54
18 2,593 275 10.6 $1.44 0.88 2.43 1.48
19 2,482 246 9.9 $1.46 0.83 2.39 1.45
20 2,107 208 9.9 $1.50 0.82 2.49 1.49
21 2,104 192 9.1 $1.44 0.77 2.42 1.43
22 1,953 162 8.3 $1.32 0.70 2.29 1.33
23 1,880 158 8.4 $1.37 0.71 2.42 1.38
24 1,766 133 7.5 $1.28 0.64 2.26 1.28
29 7,651 568 7.4 $1.38 0.64 2.47 1.37
34 6,144 358 5.8 $1.26 0.51 2.29 1.21
39 4,800 235 4.9 $1.20 0.43 2.21 1.13
40 4,043 181 4.5 $1.23 0.40 2.28 1.13
45 3,332 123 3.7 $1.13 0.33 2.10 1.01
50 5,163 139 2.7 $0.91 0.25 1.76 0.82
60 3,593 75 2.1 $0.85 0.20 1.61 0.73
70 2,583 47 1.8 $0.78 0.18 1.62 0.70
80 1,808 22 1.2 $0.58 0.12 1.23 0.51
90 1,155 14 1.2 $0.69 0.12 1.36 0.56
99 2,314 19 0.8 $0.58 0.09 1.15 0.46
Total 202,045 49,944 24.7 $1.48 2.00 1.92
Show Bets
Code:
Last 25,000 races
201-PubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
SHOW BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/20 5 4 80.0 $1.68 2.65 0.74 1.12
1/9 25 25 100.0 $2.11 3.60 0.95 1.45
1/5 125 119 95.2 $2.03 5.50 1.26 1.84
1/3 254 229 90.2 $1.92 5.55 1.34 1.87
2/5 451 398 88.2 $1.89 5.28 1.38 1.87
1/2 674 580 86.1 $1.86 5.22 1.44 1.90
3/5 1,829 1,535 83.9 $1.85 5.58 1.61 2.04
4/5 2,490 1,984 79.7 $1.82 5.45 1.72 2.09
1 2,739 2,114 77.2 $1.82 5.35 1.84 2.15
6/5 2,962 2,236 75.5 $1.84 5.32 1.99 2.24
7/5 1,633 1,181 72.3 $1.79 5.10 2.03 2.22
3/2 1,586 1,149 72.4 $1.83 5.13 2.12 2.28
8/5 3,433 2,420 70.5 $1.81 5.06 2.18 2.30
9/5 3,476 2,336 67.2 $1.78 4.91 2.25 2.31
2 9,111 5,843 64.1 $1.78 4.73 2.40 2.37
5/2 8,801 5,200 59.1 $1.74 4.46 2.56 2.39
3 8,109 4,488 55.3 $1.72 4.21 2.72 2.42
7/2 7,603 4,050 53.3 $1.74 4.08 2.93 2.50
4 6,733 3,312 49.2 $1.67 3.78 2.99 2.46
9/2 6,315 3,021 47.8 $1.72 3.71 3.19 2.54
5 10,931 4,814 44.0 $1.66 3.43 3.31 2.52
6 9,443 3,860 40.9 $1.67 3.24 3.56 2.58
7 8,205 3,069 37.4 $1.62 2.96 3.69 2.55
8 7,157 2,505 35.0 $1.62 2.81 3.87 2.58
9 6,603 2,095 31.7 $1.58 2.56 3.88 2.50
10 5,734 1,766 30.8 $1.65 2.48 4.12 2.59
11 4,957 1,427 28.8 $1.56 2.33 4.19 2.53
12 4,525 1,266 28.0 $1.56 2.29 4.41 2.59
13 3,949 983 24.9 $1.45 2.02 4.21 2.41
14 3,701 882 23.8 $1.47 1.95 4.32 2.42
15 3,243 784 24.2 $1.51 1.97 4.66 2.54
16 3,024 658 21.8 $1.46 1.78 4.44 2.40
17 2,756 593 21.5 $1.41 1.77 4.65 2.43
18 2,578 516 20.0 $1.41 1.65 4.56 2.36
19 2,475 509 20.6 $1.47 1.72 4.94 2.51
20 2,097 399 19.0 $1.44 1.58 4.79 2.41
21 2,094 387 18.5 $1.48 1.55 4.87 2.43
22 1,945 338 17.4 $1.37 1.46 4.78 2.33
23 1,875 310 16.5 $1.31 1.39 4.75 2.27
24 1,765 260 14.7 $1.28 1.25 4.42 2.12
29 7,635 1,124 14.7 $1.28 1.26 4.90 2.24
34 6,136 767 12.5 $1.22 1.09 4.90 2.13
39 4,798 531 11.1 $1.18 0.98 4.99 2.08
40 4,041 364 9.0 $1.05 0.81 4.59 1.84
45 3,331 263 7.9 $0.97 0.71 4.49 1.73
50 5,163 342 6.6 $0.88 0.61 4.33 1.60
60 3,592 190 5.3 $0.77 0.50 4.08 1.43
70 2,583 127 4.9 $0.80 0.48 4.37 1.47
80 1,808 67 3.7 $0.68 0.37 3.73 1.23
90 1,155 41 3.5 $0.67 0.36 3.98 1.25
99 2,314 41 1.8 $0.42 0.19 2.49 0.75
Total 199,967 73,502 36.8 $1.51 2.94 2.82
|
| Dave Schwartz |
01-20-2009 04:43 PM |
Public Choice Ranks
Win Bets
Code:
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 26,121 9,499 36.4 $1.69 2.77 1.01 1.32
2nd 24,740 5,196 21.0 $1.60 1.60 0.96 1.11
3rd 24,788 3,653 14.7 $1.57 1.12 0.94 1.00
4th 24,694 2,584 10.5 $1.55 0.80 0.94 0.92
5th 24,535 1,742 7.1 $1.50 0.55 0.91 0.81
6th 23,154 1,135 4.9 $1.46 0.39 0.91 0.74
7th 19,241 611 3.2 $1.30 0.27 0.83 0.63
8th 14,223 340 2.4 $1.36 0.22 0.86 0.61
above 20,720 271 1.3 $1.10 0.14 0.74 0.48
Total 202,216 25,031 12.4 $1.48 1.00 0.96
Place Bets
Code:
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
PLACE BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 26,071 14,867 57.0 $1.75 4.34 1.59 1.88
2nd 24,690 10,463 42.4 $1.65 3.22 1.93 1.89
3rd 24,739 7,915 32.0 $1.56 2.43 2.04 1.79
4th 24,673 6,089 24.7 $1.55 1.88 2.22 1.74
5th 24,534 4,413 18.0 $1.51 1.39 2.31 1.64
6th 23,154 2,860 12.4 $1.40 0.98 2.29 1.47
7th 19,241 1,671 8.7 $1.32 0.74 2.28 1.35
8th 14,223 939 6.6 $1.34 0.61 2.38 1.31
above 20,720 727 3.5 $1.08 0.37 1.99 1.01
Total 202,045 49,944 24.7 $1.48 2.00 1.92
Show Bets
Code:
test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
SHOW BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 25,583 18,155 71.0 $1.80 5.30 1.94 2.19
2nd 24,239 14,267 58.9 $1.75 4.39 2.63 2.42
3rd 24,280 11,913 49.1 $1.68 3.66 3.07 2.47
4th 24,223 9,766 40.3 $1.63 3.02 3.55 2.52
5th 24,330 7,664 31.5 $1.54 2.41 4.01 2.49
6th 23,136 5,264 22.8 $1.41 1.81 4.22 2.33
7th 19,235 3,181 16.5 $1.27 1.41 4.34 2.16
8th 14,222 1,801 12.7 $1.25 1.17 4.56 2.10
above 20,719 1,491 7.2 $1.00 0.76 4.07 1.69
Total 199,967 73,502 36.8 $1.51 2.94 2.82
|
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