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Old 01-20-2009, 11:50 AM   #1
gambler844
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PLACE PAYOUT

Im trying to figure a good way to get an approximate place payout from the win payout.
Is 40% of win a good estimate of pace?
Thanks for any help
ed
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:04 PM   #2
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40% ? no

Quote:
Originally Posted by gambler844
Im trying to figure a good way to get an approximate place payout from the win payout.
Is 40% of win a good estimate of pace?
Thanks for any help
ed
I don't know of any hard and fast rule of thumb- I do know it relies on 3 things after the takeout and that is:
1-amount bet into the place pool
2-amount wagered on your selection assuming he runs 1st or 2nd,
3-the amount wagered on the other horse that runs 1st or 2nd.

There used to be a couple of guys (w/calculators) who sat in the stands at Laurel watching the tote and would estimate the show payoffs and wager or not according to their projections. seemed like a lot of work to me, but then I am not a place or show bettor.
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I wouldn't say I drink too much but my mother did tell me that my first words were" when does happy hour start"?
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:15 PM   #3
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win odds x .40
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:32 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
win odds x .40
That's simply not correct.
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I wouldn't say I drink too much but my mother did tell me that my first words were" when does happy hour start"?
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:34 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
win odds x .40
Yes, Dave thanks for the reassurance on that, as I am a win/place bettor in many cases, and that is what I shoot for....I made that up on my own, but it is nice to know that I got it right, from one who might know about such things......It has worked for me and has saved many a win bet....

best,
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:43 PM   #6
gambler844
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Thanks Dave
ed
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:44 PM   #7
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LK - I went over the price payouts on the NYRA web site for the last 10 racing days and that formula does not add up.

As I stated before, I am not a place bettor, but I figured that at 40% I may have to readjust my thinking so I did a little research and found the 40% doesn't hold up. Maybe 10 racing days approx 90 races is not an acurate sample but it sold me.
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:49 PM   #8
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CJ D,


0.40 x win odds was an approxiamtion that was handed to me many years ago. As I recall, I tested it at one time and found that in medium-to-low odds ranges it was reasonably sound.


So, what is the average relationship between win odds and place odds?


What figure do you find would work?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: I just ran a 5,000 race sample and found that in horses under 7/1:

win pay = $7.25 2.62:1
place pay = $4.00 1.00:1

ratio appears to be 0.38

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 01-20-2009 at 12:54 PM.
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Old 01-20-2009, 12:58 PM   #9
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0.4 is as good of a one size fits all figure as any.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:06 PM   #10
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It appears that accross all odds ranges in that sample the number drops to 0.366.

BTW, I used the win odds of ALL horses relative to the place PAY.


I would think that one who was so inclined could easily create a more complex formula that relates win odds to place pay (i.e. pay = base number + WinOdds x multiplier).

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 01-20-2009 at 01:08 PM.
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Old 01-20-2009, 03:44 PM   #11
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Dave, a couple of years ago, you posted a chart with the average place and show pays for each range of win odds. I imagine it has changed a bit because of net pool pricing..any chance of an update?
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Old 01-20-2009, 04:28 PM   #12
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Sure. I am building a bunch of tables starting tomorrow. I will do just that.

Dave
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Old 01-20-2009, 04:29 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Sure. I am building a bunch of tables starting tomorrow. I will do just that.

Dave
Thanks Dave!
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Old 01-20-2009, 04:40 PM   #14
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WIn Bets

Code:
Last 25,000 races
201-PubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/20                7      6   85.7  $1.80   3.97   1.11   1.54
1/9                36     30   83.3  $1.91   4.32   1.13   1.61
1/5               139     99   71.2  $1.80   4.57   1.05   1.56
1/3               272    185   68.0  $1.82   4.48   1.08   1.57
2/5               492    293   59.6  $1.71   3.88   1.02   1.45
1/2               736    415   56.4  $1.75   3.74   1.03   1.45
3/5             1,914    973   50.8  $1.73   3.54   1.02   1.42
4/5             2,585  1,137   44.0  $1.66   3.12   0.98   1.34
1               2,839  1,175   41.4  $1.72   2.97   1.02   1.36
6/5             3,044  1,143   37.5  $1.69   2.72   1.02   1.33
7/5             1,679    586   34.9  $1.70   2.53   1.01   1.30
3/2             1,625    534   32.9  $1.65   2.38   0.99   1.26
8/5             3,529  1,129   32.0  $1.70   2.36   1.02   1.28
9/5             3,546  1,059   29.9  $1.71   2.23   1.02   1.26
2               9,296  2,412   25.9  $1.66   1.95   0.99   1.20
5/2             8,941  1,943   21.7  $1.61   1.67   0.96   1.12
3               8,238  1,528   18.5  $1.56   1.43   0.93   1.06
7/2             7,707  1,387   18.0  $1.68   1.40   1.00   1.11
4               6,827  1,055   15.5  $1.61   1.21   0.95   1.03
9/2             6,388    900   14.1  $1.60   1.11   0.95   1.01
5              11,067  1,383   12.5  $1.60   0.99   0.95   0.98
6               9,535  1,035   10.9  $1.62   0.87   0.96   0.96
7               8,297    725    8.7  $1.47   0.70   0.87   0.84
8               7,215    618    8.6  $1.62   0.69   0.96   0.90
9               6,659    485    7.3  $1.52   0.59   0.90   0.83
10              5,791    386    6.7  $1.52   0.54   0.90   0.81
11              5,000    314    6.3  $1.56   0.51   0.92   0.81
12              4,550    246    5.4  $1.45   0.45   0.86   0.75
13              3,980    189    4.7  $1.37   0.39   0.81   0.69
14              3,723    196    5.3  $1.64   0.43   0.96   0.80
15              3,264    137    4.2  $1.40   0.34   0.81   0.67
16              3,046    129    4.2  $1.47   0.35   0.87   0.71
17              2,775    127    4.6  $1.72   0.38   1.00   0.81
18              2,594     91    3.5  $1.35   0.29   0.80   0.63
19              2,482     85    3.4  $1.40   0.29   0.83   0.65
20              2,108     82    3.9  $1.69   0.33   0.98   0.77
21              2,104     61    2.9  $1.28   0.24   0.77   0.59
22              1,953     58    3.0  $1.36   0.25   0.82   0.62
23              1,880     54    2.9  $1.39   0.24   0.83   0.62
24              1,766     44    2.5  $1.27   0.21   0.75   0.56
29              7,651    215    2.8  $1.58   0.24   0.94   0.68
34              6,145    117    1.9  $1.26   0.17   0.75   0.53
39              4,800     70    1.5  $1.07   0.13   0.66   0.44
40              4,043     52    1.3  $1.10   0.12   0.66   0.44
45              3,332     46    1.4  $1.33   0.12   0.79   0.50
50              5,163     45    0.9  $0.95   0.08   0.57   0.36
60              3,593     23    0.6  $0.84   0.06   0.49   0.30
70              2,583     12    0.5  $0.64   0.05   0.41   0.24
80              1,808      8    0.4  $0.76   0.04   0.45   0.25
90              1,155      3    0.3  $0.67   0.03   0.29   0.18
99              2,314      6    0.3  $0.67   0.03   0.36   0.20

Total         202,216 25,031   12.4  $1.48   1.00   0.96
Place Bets
Code:
Last 25,000 races
201-PubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
PLACE BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/20                5      4   80.0  $1.68   2.65   0.74   1.12
1/9                32     30   93.8  $2.06   4.32   1.13   1.65
1/5               139    122   87.8  $1.98   5.64   1.29   1.86
1/3               267    223   83.5  $1.88   5.41   1.31   1.83
2/5               485    385   79.4  $1.85   5.10   1.34   1.82
1/2               727    559   76.9  $1.83   5.03   1.39   1.84
3/5             1,907  1,383   72.5  $1.81   5.03   1.45   1.87
4/5             2,574  1,758   68.3  $1.80   4.83   1.52   1.90
1               2,832  1,783   63.0  $1.77   4.51   1.55   1.88
6/5             3,036  1,813   59.7  $1.77   4.31   1.61   1.89
7/5             1,674    946   56.5  $1.72   4.08   1.63   1.86
3/2             1,622    927   57.2  $1.78   4.14   1.71   1.93
8/5             3,517  1,902   54.1  $1.73   3.98   1.71   1.90
9/5             3,539  1,829   51.7  $1.74   3.85   1.76   1.91
2               9,287  4,450   47.9  $1.72   3.60   1.83   1.91
5/2             8,932  3,780   42.3  $1.65   3.24   1.86   1.86
3               8,232  3,171   38.5  $1.64   2.97   1.92   1.84
7/2             7,694  2,797   36.4  $1.65   2.82   2.03   1.88
4               6,821  2,209   32.4  $1.57   2.52   2.00   1.79
9/2             6,380  1,959   30.7  $1.59   2.41   2.07   1.80
5              11,060  3,121   28.2  $1.59   2.23   2.15   1.80
6               9,531  2,443   25.6  $1.62   2.05   2.25   1.81
7               8,292  1,892   22.8  $1.58   1.83   2.28   1.76
8               7,214  1,475   20.4  $1.56   1.66   2.28   1.72
9               6,655  1,218   18.3  $1.52   1.49   2.26   1.65
10              5,790    994   17.2  $1.53   1.39   2.32   1.65
11              4,998    799   16.0  $1.52   1.31   2.35   1.63
12              4,548    713   15.7  $1.57   1.29   2.48   1.68
13              3,978    546   13.7  $1.46   1.12   2.34   1.55
14              3,721    491   13.2  $1.50   1.08   2.40   1.57
15              3,264    404   12.4  $1.46   1.02   2.40   1.53
16              3,046    346   11.4  $1.43   0.94   2.34   1.48
17              2,775    317   11.4  $1.49   0.95   2.48   1.54
18              2,593    275   10.6  $1.44   0.88   2.43   1.48
19              2,482    246    9.9  $1.46   0.83   2.39   1.45
20              2,107    208    9.9  $1.50   0.82   2.49   1.49
21              2,104    192    9.1  $1.44   0.77   2.42   1.43
22              1,953    162    8.3  $1.32   0.70   2.29   1.33
23              1,880    158    8.4  $1.37   0.71   2.42   1.38
24              1,766    133    7.5  $1.28   0.64   2.26   1.28
29              7,651    568    7.4  $1.38   0.64   2.47   1.37
34              6,144    358    5.8  $1.26   0.51   2.29   1.21
39              4,800    235    4.9  $1.20   0.43   2.21   1.13
40              4,043    181    4.5  $1.23   0.40   2.28   1.13
45              3,332    123    3.7  $1.13   0.33   2.10   1.01
50              5,163    139    2.7  $0.91   0.25   1.76   0.82
60              3,593     75    2.1  $0.85   0.20   1.61   0.73
70              2,583     47    1.8  $0.78   0.18   1.62   0.70
80              1,808     22    1.2  $0.58   0.12   1.23   0.51
90              1,155     14    1.2  $0.69   0.12   1.36   0.56
99              2,314     19    0.8  $0.58   0.09   1.15   0.46

Total         202,045 49,944   24.7  $1.48   2.00   1.92
Show Bets
Code:
Last 25,000 races
201-PubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
SHOW BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/20                5      4   80.0  $1.68   2.65   0.74   1.12
1/9                25     25  100.0  $2.11   3.60   0.95   1.45
1/5               125    119   95.2  $2.03   5.50   1.26   1.84
1/3               254    229   90.2  $1.92   5.55   1.34   1.87
2/5               451    398   88.2  $1.89   5.28   1.38   1.87
1/2               674    580   86.1  $1.86   5.22   1.44   1.90
3/5             1,829  1,535   83.9  $1.85   5.58   1.61   2.04
4/5             2,490  1,984   79.7  $1.82   5.45   1.72   2.09
1               2,739  2,114   77.2  $1.82   5.35   1.84   2.15
6/5             2,962  2,236   75.5  $1.84   5.32   1.99   2.24
7/5             1,633  1,181   72.3  $1.79   5.10   2.03   2.22
3/2             1,586  1,149   72.4  $1.83   5.13   2.12   2.28
8/5             3,433  2,420   70.5  $1.81   5.06   2.18   2.30
9/5             3,476  2,336   67.2  $1.78   4.91   2.25   2.31
2               9,111  5,843   64.1  $1.78   4.73   2.40   2.37
5/2             8,801  5,200   59.1  $1.74   4.46   2.56   2.39
3               8,109  4,488   55.3  $1.72   4.21   2.72   2.42
7/2             7,603  4,050   53.3  $1.74   4.08   2.93   2.50
4               6,733  3,312   49.2  $1.67   3.78   2.99   2.46
9/2             6,315  3,021   47.8  $1.72   3.71   3.19   2.54
5              10,931  4,814   44.0  $1.66   3.43   3.31   2.52
6               9,443  3,860   40.9  $1.67   3.24   3.56   2.58
7               8,205  3,069   37.4  $1.62   2.96   3.69   2.55
8               7,157  2,505   35.0  $1.62   2.81   3.87   2.58
9               6,603  2,095   31.7  $1.58   2.56   3.88   2.50
10              5,734  1,766   30.8  $1.65   2.48   4.12   2.59
11              4,957  1,427   28.8  $1.56   2.33   4.19   2.53
12              4,525  1,266   28.0  $1.56   2.29   4.41   2.59
13              3,949    983   24.9  $1.45   2.02   4.21   2.41
14              3,701    882   23.8  $1.47   1.95   4.32   2.42
15              3,243    784   24.2  $1.51   1.97   4.66   2.54
16              3,024    658   21.8  $1.46   1.78   4.44   2.40
17              2,756    593   21.5  $1.41   1.77   4.65   2.43
18              2,578    516   20.0  $1.41   1.65   4.56   2.36
19              2,475    509   20.6  $1.47   1.72   4.94   2.51
20              2,097    399   19.0  $1.44   1.58   4.79   2.41
21              2,094    387   18.5  $1.48   1.55   4.87   2.43
22              1,945    338   17.4  $1.37   1.46   4.78   2.33
23              1,875    310   16.5  $1.31   1.39   4.75   2.27
24              1,765    260   14.7  $1.28   1.25   4.42   2.12
29              7,635  1,124   14.7  $1.28   1.26   4.90   2.24
34              6,136    767   12.5  $1.22   1.09   4.90   2.13
39              4,798    531   11.1  $1.18   0.98   4.99   2.08
40              4,041    364    9.0  $1.05   0.81   4.59   1.84
45              3,331    263    7.9  $0.97   0.71   4.49   1.73
50              5,163    342    6.6  $0.88   0.61   4.33   1.60
60              3,592    190    5.3  $0.77   0.50   4.08   1.43
70              2,583    127    4.9  $0.80   0.48   4.37   1.47
80              1,808     67    3.7  $0.68   0.37   3.73   1.23
90              1,155     41    3.5  $0.67   0.36   3.98   1.25
99              2,314     41    1.8  $0.42   0.19   2.49   0.75

Total         199,967 73,502   36.8  $1.51   2.94   2.82
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Old 01-20-2009, 04:43 PM   #15
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Posts: 15,302
Public Choice Ranks


Win Bets
Code:
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st            26,121  9,499   36.4  $1.69   2.77   1.01   1.32
2nd            24,740  5,196   21.0  $1.60   1.60   0.96   1.11
3rd            24,788  3,653   14.7  $1.57   1.12   0.94   1.00
4th            24,694  2,584   10.5  $1.55   0.80   0.94   0.92
5th            24,535  1,742    7.1  $1.50   0.55   0.91   0.81
6th            23,154  1,135    4.9  $1.46   0.39   0.91   0.74
7th            19,241    611    3.2  $1.30   0.27   0.83   0.63
8th            14,223    340    2.4  $1.36   0.22   0.86   0.61
above          20,720    271    1.3  $1.10   0.14   0.74   0.48

Total         202,216 25,031   12.4  $1.48   1.00   0.96


Place Bets
Code:
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
PLACE BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st            26,071 14,867   57.0  $1.75   4.34   1.59   1.88
2nd            24,690 10,463   42.4  $1.65   3.22   1.93   1.89
3rd            24,739  7,915   32.0  $1.56   2.43   2.04   1.79
4th            24,673  6,089   24.7  $1.55   1.88   2.22   1.74
5th            24,534  4,413   18.0  $1.51   1.39   2.31   1.64
6th            23,154  2,860   12.4  $1.40   0.98   2.29   1.47
7th            19,241  1,671    8.7  $1.32   0.74   2.28   1.35
8th            14,223    939    6.6  $1.34   0.61   2.38   1.31
above          20,720    727    3.5  $1.08   0.37   1.99   1.01

Total         202,045 49,944   24.7  $1.48   2.00   1.92

Show Bets
Code:
test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
SHOW BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st            25,583 18,155   71.0  $1.80   5.30   1.94   2.19
2nd            24,239 14,267   58.9  $1.75   4.39   2.63   2.42
3rd            24,280 11,913   49.1  $1.68   3.66   3.07   2.47
4th            24,223  9,766   40.3  $1.63   3.02   3.55   2.52
5th            24,330  7,664   31.5  $1.54   2.41   4.01   2.49
6th            23,136  5,264   22.8  $1.41   1.81   4.22   2.33
7th            19,235  3,181   16.5  $1.27   1.41   4.34   2.16
8th            14,222  1,801   12.7  $1.25   1.17   4.56   2.10
above          20,719  1,491    7.2  $1.00   0.76   4.07   1.69

Total         199,967 73,502   36.8  $1.51   2.94   2.82
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