- - Hence
( http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137695)
| PowerUpPaynter |
04-13-2017 07:34 AM |
Hence
Hence seems to be the early wise guy horse. So i figured we should start a discussion on him. I actually like him. Had a dream last night he actually won the derby.
What kind of odds do you think we can get on him? Over 20-1? A lot of simple minded money bet in the derby and doubt people are looking to teh Sunland Derby as much... Sometimes I wish I bet more simple minded... Classic over thinker, Ha...
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| CincyHorseplayer |
04-13-2017 09:48 AM |
I like the combination of Mr Prospector line over AP Indy/ Nasrullah line. It spells dirty good to me but like Sbcaris has said I have no evidence to support my theory. But the fact that he ran down a legitimately fast pace is saying something. Many genuine plodders are stranded by a fast pace. Like the connections also. This one IMO is a live contender.
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| Spalding No! |
04-13-2017 10:23 AM |
The Sunland Park Derby had a contentious pace that saw one colt (Bronze Age) burned beyond recognition and a maiden (Irap) and a second string colt (Hedge Fund) floundering at the top of the lane. I'm not going to give Hence props for being able to rally past those.
He's a colt that took over 5 months to break its maiden, with all sorts of problems in its running lines ("green", "stumbled start", "shifted out", "ducked in sharply", "awkward start"). He made absolutely no impression at any point in the Southwest, one of the highest rated preps of the season.
Meanwhile, the Sunland Park Derby was one of the lowest rated preps of the season, with the slowest final figure from CJs chart of any 3yo race run on a fast main track.
Wait for the turf.
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| CincyHorseplayer |
04-13-2017 01:14 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
(Post 2152121)
The Sunland Park Derby had a contentious pace that saw one colt (Bronze Age) burned beyond recognition and a maiden (Irap) and a second string colt (Hedge Fund) floundering at the top of the lane. I'm not going to give Hence props for being able to rally past those.
He's a colt that took over 5 months to break its maiden, with all sorts of problems in its running lines ("green", "stumbled start", "shifted out", "ducked in sharply", "awkward start"). He made absolutely no impression at any point in the Southwest, one of the highest rated preps of the season.
Meanwhile, the Sunland Park Derby was one of the lowest rated preps of the season, with the slowest final figure from CJs chart of any 3yo race run on a fast main track.
Wait for the turf.
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You are entirely missing the point. Yes a pace scenario where they duel up front favors off pace horses. But only the talented can come home in fast time when stalking that fast pace. A quality that is a must for any off pace horse in the Kentucky Derby.
Horses that are bred towards stamina are not necessarily the most precocious so I don't regard how long he took to break his maiden as a major drawback. Running better races as distances get longer is far more important than precocity.
Other than your bottom paragraph you have some real simple minded interpretations of events. |
| f2tornado |
04-13-2017 01:59 PM |
Agree with Cinci. A lot of three year olds look like dung relative to G1 company then suddenly pop.
Hence certainly has a nice pedigree. RAN on top, Buckpasser-x, DI of 3.31 with 28 points but lacking any solid or professional points. The success in the Derby of RAN sire line and also Buckpasser-x with fast fractions compels me to use this one, underneath at a minimum. Where I put him might ultimately depend on him obtaining big league pilot and Asmussen's zapper having fully charged batteries.
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| Andrick |
04-13-2017 04:12 PM |
Hence has a lot of the things I'm looking for in the a Derby horse. He has a maintain or improve pattern to his figures. He's shown finishing ability at 9F and did so with a lot of length to his stride (and, like has been said, he didn't do it by "plodding" along), which suggests he could be one of the ones better suited for 10F. He has a foundation having run in 4 races that were more than a mile in length. He has experience in big fields with 5 of his 6 career races featuring field sizes of 10+. He won his last race which is a plus. His speed figures, while maybe on the shorter side overall, certainly make him playable at a price. There's some question marks with him regarding class and whatnot, but I'm probably going to find myself willing to get an answer to those questions in the Derby at 30/1 or whatever he goes off at.
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| PowerUpPaynter |
04-13-2017 04:26 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrick
(Post 2152276)
Hence has a lot of the things I'm looking for in the a Derby horse. He has a maintain or improve pattern to his figures. He's shown finishing ability at 9F and did so with a lot of length to his stride (and, like has been said, he didn't do it by "plodding" along), which suggests he could be one of the ones better suited for 10F. He has a foundation having run in 4 races that were more than a mile in length. He has experience in big fields with 5 of his 6 career races featuring field sizes of 10+. He won his last race which is a plus. His speed figures, while maybe on the shorter side overall, certainly make him playable at a price. There's some question marks with him regarding class and whatnot, but I'm probably going to find myself willing to get an answer to those questions in the Derby at 30/1 or whatever he goes off at.
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What you just said is very well stated but i think we'll be lucky to get 20-1 |
| Andrick |
04-13-2017 04:35 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
(Post 2152281)
What you just said is very well stated but i think we'll be lucky to get 20-1
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Yeah, you could be right, Paynter. I'll be okay with using him at 20/1, though. |
| Spalding No! |
04-13-2017 06:05 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
(Post 2152172)
You are entirely missing the point. Yes a pace scenario where they duel up front favors off pace horses. But only the talented can come home in fast time when stalking that fast pace. A quality that is a must for any off pace horse in the Kentucky Derby.
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Hence "stalked" a fast pace? He was last early by 15 lengths. The race was nearly a carbon copy, fractions and all, of the 2012 Sunland Derby, when another Baffert phony (Castaway) locked horns in a wicked duel early, spit it out at the half, and watched as the local hero (Isn't He Clever) got first run before being inhaled by an Asmussen second stringer (Daddy Nose Best).
Hence got a perfect setup. He did not brave a fast pace--he wasn't even in the second flight--and somehow manage to finish strong. Everyone in the race stopped in front of him and he lumbered along for the win.
Quote:
Horses that are bred towards stamina are not necessarily the most precocious so I don't regard how long he took to break his maiden as a major drawback. Running better races as distances get longer is far more important than precocity.
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Hence is bred towards "stamina"? He's by a sprinter who has sired nothing but sprinters on the main track outside of the enigmatic Danza who took one route in his brief career. Street Boss and Into Mischief are the only prominent established stallions who's offspring have an average winning distance shorter than 7f.
Otherwise, Street Boss has been a noted sire of turf horses. In addition, the female side is littered with turf. Hence's two winning siblings did so on turf. You have to search deep to find some Derby horses in his pedigree, and when you do, its Regal Ransom and Devil May Care, who both failed in the KY Derby.
Quote:
Other than your bottom paragraph you have some real simple minded interpretations of events.
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Sorry, I'll try and add some more mystification and pseudo-science to the proceedings next time.
I thought we were discussing the Kentucky Derby, not the Fantasy Stakes... |
| boys at tosconova |
04-13-2017 06:27 PM |
when i look at hence i see a horse that's only run one bad race and that was his first start. and it's very easy toss it because of it.
even when he finished 7th in the SW stakes it was a good race. basically only losing 3rd by around 1L from post 10 the first time tackling graded stakes. this race is deceiving good. but it looks ehhhhh/bad on paper. without digging around.
(i ended up using dilettante over hence in the sunland derby. i thought he looked a lil better better than him and would be in better position. still kicking myself because of it)
if you look at his races he has a 144 on the slop oakland to break im maiden, and you really have to like that 136 for the mile as a 2yr old @ CD where he was pushing the pace the whole race.
i didn't examine his sunland race that much that much yet, but from watching it a couple of times you can tell he was going to make a big move and prolly win. he even showed a little early foot as well.
but the thing is i saw a horse that didn't want to pass horses once he got up next to them. i don't know so much if he passed these horses or if they tired and he went by. and even when he pulled up next to conquest mo there was a a brief few seconds where it didn't look like he was going to get by him.
conquest mo ran a nice race in the sunland. left for position, raced wide and tired late.
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| Robert Fischer |
04-13-2017 06:55 PM |
He's got talent.
Something about his stride, hijinks, and slow progress( was supposed to win the Churchill MDN/BenGreely) makes me wonder about underlying issues.
If he runs his 'A' race, he at least belongs in the Derby conversation. There's also always a chance he continues to mature into a leader of the crop.
He's not my key horse, but I'm not tossing him either.
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| boys at tosconova |
04-13-2017 07:07 PM |
i'm sorry. in my above post i meant to say hence showed a lil speed in the SW
as a side note: without cutting/pasteing the spalding/cincy spat.
i have to agree w/ spalding. not only was cincy wrong to a degree he even brought insults into the equation. whatever comeback spalding give him is justified imo.
ps......i luv me some baby ruth...haha if u see what i did here.
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| PowerUpPaynter |
04-13-2017 07:34 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
(Post 2152326)
Hence is bred towards "stamina"? He's by a sprinter who has sired nothing but sprinters on the main track outside of the enigmatic Danza who took one route in his brief career. Street Boss and Into Mischief are the only prominent established stallions who's offspring have an average winning distance shorter than 7f.
Otherwise, Street Boss has been a noted sire of turf horses. In addition, the female side is littered with turf. Hence's two winning siblings did so on turf. You have to search deep to find some Derby horses in his pedigree, and when you do, its Regal Ransom and Devil May Care, who both failed in the KY Derby.
Sorry, I'll try and add some more mystification and pseudo-science to the proceedings next time.
I thought we were discussing the Kentucky Derby, not the Fantasy Stakes...
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RAN sire line, Buckpasser in the X |
| CincyHorseplayer |
04-13-2017 08:09 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
(Post 2152326)
Hence "stalked" a fast pace? He was last early by 15 lengths. The race was nearly a carbon copy, fractions and all, of the 2012 Sunland Derby, when another Baffert phony (Castaway) locked horns in a wicked duel early, spit it out at the half, and watched as the local hero (Isn't He Clever) got first run before being inhaled by an Asmussen second stringer (Daddy Nose Best).
Hence got a perfect setup. He did not brave a fast pace--he wasn't even in the second flight--and somehow manage to finish strong. Everyone in the race stopped in front of him and he lumbered along for the win.
Hence is bred towards "stamina"? He's by a sprinter who has sired nothing but sprinters on the main track outside of the enigmatic Danza who took one route in his brief career. Street Boss and Into Mischief are the only prominent established stallions who's offspring have an average winning distance shorter than 7f.
Otherwise, Street Boss has been a noted sire of turf horses. In addition, the female side is littered with turf. Hence's two winning siblings did so on turf. You have to search deep to find some Derby horses in his pedigree, and when you do, its Regal Ransom and Devil May Care, who both failed in the KY Derby.
Sorry, I'll try and add some more mystification and pseudo-science to the proceedings next time.
I thought we were discussing the Kentucky Derby, not the Fantasy Stakes...
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You are still ducking and missing it. Mediocre closers can't close in fast fractions. A fast pace strands them. Mediocre closers can stalk(and getting into the technicalities of lengths back is also not the point) a mediocre pace and overwhelm mediocre speed. Running down a fast pace in fast fractions is only step 1 for a closer intent on winning the derby. What I am pointing out is far removed from your dumb dumb point about basic pace setups.
And you have a dumb dumb interpretation of stamina. You ignored the precocity aspect of it and are directly using the generic AWD and the skills of the sire as a rationale basis. Street Boss gets a 2** stamina rating on Helm/Progressive index and has AP Indy as a damsire influence who gets a 1**T. About as stamina oriented as you can get. That he has gotten better at longer is more important than this hair splitting anyway but your rationale is wrong regardless. The Machiavellian line of Mr Prospector produced Street Sense so I am not writing it off. Plus the horse is showing ability on dirt. If he was failing here you can cite the need for turf but he's not.
Anyway I play horses not whiffle ball. Bring your big boy bat and learn some $hit before you come at me with these generic Playschool tools!:) |
| PowerUpPaynter |
04-13-2017 08:55 PM |
Rewatched the Southwest again tonight. Not much positive in that from him. I guess no video of any of his other races?
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| Andrick |
04-13-2017 09:25 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
(Post 2152373)
Rewatched the Southwest again tonight. Not much positive in that from him. I guess no video of any of his other races?
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You should be able to find video of all his races on the net, Paynter. Whether it be on the bloodhorse or somewhere else. Check out his "adventurous" maiden win when you get the chance. |
| PowerUpPaynter |
04-13-2017 09:37 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrick
(Post 2152387)
You should be able to find video of all his races on the net, Paynter. Whether it be on the bloodhorse or somewhere else. Check out his "adventurous" maiden win when you get the chance.
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ah found it. good ole google... hell of a stretch run, what the hell caused him to duck in like that? but he ducked in and had to restart and won. thats pretty impressive. |
| Spalding No! |
04-13-2017 10:17 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
(Post 2152365)
You are still ducking and missing it.
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From the looks of it, I don't want to catch whatever it is that's afflicting you.
Quote:
Mediocre closers can't close in fast fractions. A fast pace strands them.
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If by "fast pace" you mean quality horses that can carry their speed, I agree. We saw that in the Southwest, when a mediocre closer like Hence failed to make up any ground on the quality One Liner, who was stretching out for the first time.
Quote:
Mediocre closers can stalk(and getting into the technicalities of lengths back is also not the point) a mediocre pace and overwhelm mediocre speed.
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If by "mediocre speed" you mean lesser quality horses that "pop and stop", I agree. We saw that in the Sunland Derby, when a mediocre closer like Hence went by the cheap speed of Bronze Age and Hedge Fund.
Sorry for "getting into technicalities" with regards to running position. I guess it wouldn't have mattered if Hence was only a couple lengths off the fast pace. I'm sure that wouldn't have affected his stretch punch at all.
Quote:
What I am pointing out is far removed from your dumb dumb point about basic pace setups.
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No kidding. Your stuff is far removed from anything that has to do with reality. In fact, I'd rather take a dum-dum to the temple then read any more of this...
Quote:
And you have a dumb dumb interpretation of stamina. You ignored the precocity aspect of it and are directly using the generic AWD and the skills of the sire as a rationale basis.
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No, I'm pretty sure I mentioned the sire's progeny, too.
Quote:
Street Boss gets a 2** stamina rating on Helm/Progressive index and has AP Indy as a damsire influence who gets a 1**T. About as stamina oriented as you can get.
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Wow, an integer, a capital letter, and a pair of asterisks. Who cares what his other offspring have done (or not done) on the track. I'm sold.
Quote:
That he has gotten better at longer is more important than this hair splitting anyway but your rationale is wrong regardless.
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He also gets better the cheaper he goes. Saratoga>Churchill>Oaklawn>Sunland Park. He'll be swimming upstream next time out.
Quote:
Anyway I play horses not whiffle ball. Bring your big boy bat and learn some $hit before you come at me with these generic Playschool tools!:)
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Screw that. I need an orbitoclast and a mallet for this mess. |
| boys at tosconova |
04-14-2017 03:50 AM |
cincy- Street Boss gets a 2** stamina rating on Helm/Progressive index and has AP Indy as a damsire influence who gets a 1**T. About as stamina oriented as you can get.
spalding-"Wow, an integer, a capital letter, and a pair of asterisks. Who cares what his other offspring have done (or not done) on the track. I'm sold"
http://i68.tinypic.com/5015x3.jpg
cincy- That he has gotten better at longer is more important than this hair splitting anyway but your rationale is wrong regardless.
spalding- "He also gets better the cheaper he goes. Saratoga>Churchill>Oaklawn>Sunland Park. He'll be swimming upstream next time out."
https://media.giphy.com/media/BYY4TcNltmGvm/giphy.gif |
| CincyHorseplayer |
04-14-2017 03:54 AM |
You think links are going to get you out of this?! Very funny KD social justice dumbass!
Try again!
:headbanger:
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| boys at tosconova |
04-14-2017 04:04 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
(Post 2152487)
You think links are going to get you out of this?! Very funny KD social justice dumbass!
Try again!
:headbanger:
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i think you need to find a new word other than dumb. you're single handedly ruining that word for all of us with your retorts.
the hence thread is really taking shape |
| CincyHorseplayer |
04-14-2017 04:17 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
(Post 2152488)
i think you need to find a new word other than dumb. you're single handedly ruining that word for all of us with your retorts.
the hence thread is really taking shape
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For all intents and purposes we are banging it up. I think I have a contender not a winner. Love the sword rattling! We have been banging against the wall of ideas. I say dumb only because it's 1 race. Only because why?
You fight so awesome. Not having it over here!
Anyway whatever. Let's jam!
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| PowerUpPaynter |
04-14-2017 10:32 AM |
Conquest Mo Money has the highest 2017 routing speed figure in the Arkansas Derby on BRIS - -if runs a good one im gonna love Hence even more
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| CincyHorseplayer |
04-14-2017 01:35 PM |
Absolutely the love the Puritanical ideas when it comes to Triple Crown contenders! And the word dumb is definitely apropos! Plenty of good passion to go round with the TC on deck. But reading these posts every day wow! I don't doubt the intelligence but there isn't much experience in the analysis. There are holes in every handicapping theory. Don't dig in when someone pokes those holes in them. Anyway great racing today. Let's get at it boys!
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| MNslappy |
04-14-2017 01:52 PM |
Very low TimeForm fig.
BUT, I rewatched the Sunland Derby a few times and I walk away more a lot more impressed than I was after watching it live the first time. Looks like a horse that could jump up and be right there if he gets the trip.
Just like Irap, I'm not sure what I'll do with Hence. This is a fun Derby to dissect.
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| PowerUpPaynter |
04-14-2017 02:07 PM |
Over 25-1 you gotta just make the win bet and focus on others in exotics. thats what im hoping for
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| PowerUpPaynter |
04-15-2017 07:52 PM |
Conquest Mo Money finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby and Irap won the Bluegrass. Both beaten by Hence in the Sunland.
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| MNslappy |
04-16-2017 01:59 AM |
I'm pretty sure he tweeted this right after the Arkansas Derby
Quote:
@andyserling
Someone has to say it.....the Sunland Derby may have been the best prep this year.
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| CincyHorseplayer |
04-16-2017 02:08 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
(Post 2153488)
Conquest Mo Money finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby and Irap won the Bluegrass. Both beaten by Hence in the Sunland.
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Gettin pretty excitin isn't it?! I'm pretty sure how I am going to bet the Derby. Will share when we get close brother! |
| Vinnie |
04-16-2017 12:22 PM |
Any projections on what you guys believe Hence's odds might be if he makes it to the starting gate on Derby day. Just curious to hear some opinions. :) I can't help but to be a little bit excited about this one!!
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| Lemon Drop Husker |
04-16-2017 12:26 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinnie
(Post 2153739)
Any projections on what you guys believe Hence's odds might be if he makes it to the starting gate on Derby day. Just curious to hear some opinions. :) I can't help but to be a little bit excited about this one!!
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In my humble opinion, he'll be around 22/1 to 25/1. If he is the supposed "wise guy" horse that it already seems he might be, he'll be 15/1 to 17/1 or so.
Again, just my humble opinion of over 25 years of wagering on the race. |
| Vinnie |
04-16-2017 12:33 PM |
Thank you Lemon Drop:
All that I can say is I truly hope that you are correct in your assessment. I would love to see him at or around such projected odds. I would be all over that. Of course, that is if the race were to be going off right now.... ;)
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| PowerUpPaynter |
04-16-2017 12:55 PM |
i like him a lot more north of 20-1 than 15-1. If he's 15-1 and Gunnevera is 12-1 Gunnevera is a better bet. They are so similar in so many ways and Gunnevera is more polished and has run in better class.
Both have Buckpasser in the X, Hence also has Raise A Native sire line. Gunnevera ran his last eight in 12 1/5 while Hence ran is in 12 2/5, Gunnevera ran his final 3/8 in 36 1/5 and Hence ran his in 37 3/5, both have made 3 starts at age 3. Gunnevera won 1 of those 3 and finished in the money all three times. Hence won 2 of those 3 and finished in the money twice.
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| Vinnie |
04-16-2017 01:17 PM |
Excellent points made. I am of the belief whether it is properly founded or not that Hence may be at the point of peaking at just about the right time for a superb effort on Derby Day. However, on the other hand, who really knows when it comes to these precocious young horses who are literally maturing at the passing of each day... :)
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| Lemon Drop Husker |
04-16-2017 01:24 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinnie
(Post 2153764)
Excellent points made. I am of the belief whether it is properly founded or not that Hence may be at the point of peaking at just about the right time for a superb effort on Derby Day. However, on the other hand, who really knows when it comes to these precocious young horses who are literally maturing at the passing of each day... :)
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Great stuff Vinnie. Put a smile to my face on such a great day. Very poetic and well said.:ThmbUp:
I think we'll all enjoy this Derby. Win, lose, in between, or whatever. This is what I believe this often criticized point system was to bring about. Chaos, and a real field of 3YO 10F potential winners. And in 2017, we have it. |
| Vinnie |
04-16-2017 01:45 PM |
Thank you sir. I am glad that you liked it. This is a wonderful time of year regardless of the myriad of things that are currently going on, and, it is also an excellent time to get excited about the races in general. Just like you said pretty much, whatever the outcome may be, I am thrilled to currently have the prospect of such a wide open field for this year's Derby. How many years past have we had several horses that have far and away stood out from the rest of the prospective participants? Far too many than I care to remember if you ask me!!
I just wanted to tell you sir, "GO HUSKERS"!! I grew up in Omaha, NE and played baseball at former Kearney State College back in the Mid 80's. Love Lincoln and miss my old stomping grounds in Nebraska. Have a great day and enjoy the races.
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| Secondbest |
04-16-2017 02:42 PM |
Does anybody have any concerns regarding his layoff? The derby will be six weeks off since sunland.Can his trainer get him fit enough off works to go the distance.?What about the rider? I'm not familiar with him?
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| boys at tosconova |
04-16-2017 02:55 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
(Post 2153811)
Does anybody have any concerns regarding his layoff? The derby will be six weeks off since sunland.Can his trainer get him fit enough off works to go the distance.?What about the rider? I'm not familiar with him?
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i have concerns about where he'll be on the track. if he's in the third grouping he'll be having cocktails w/ gunnevera at the very back. but unlike him i do think he can be up closer if he wanted to. but that doesn;t mean he will..lol |
| Lemon Drop Husker |
04-16-2017 02:56 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
(Post 2153811)
Does anybody have any concerns regarding his layoff? The derby will be six weeks off since sunland.Can his trainer get him fit enough off works to go the distance.?What about the rider? I'm not familiar with him?
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Not me.
Concerns have to be his dud in the Southwest (yeah, I was a race early on betting him) Was then shipped to Sunland for easier going.
While that race has showed up big and a supposed "key" race, connections were obviously looking to backdoor this guy in.
Then you have the whole bounce problem. He ran is eyeballs out in his last. Will he improve or regress? Most horses do the latter in their next out after a top end career best effort without backing on their past form. |
| Lemon Drop Husker |
04-16-2017 03:00 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
(Post 2153827)
i have concerns about where he'll be on the track. if he's in the third grouping he'll be having cocktails w/ gunnevera at the very back. but unlike him i do think he can be up closer if he wanted to. but that doesn;t mean he will..lol
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I see Hence as a Gin and Tonic. Maybe even a Mojito.
Gunnevera is a Budweiser with a shot of Jack. |
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