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Old 04-13-2017, 07:34 AM   #1
PowerUpPaynter
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Hence

Hence seems to be the early wise guy horse. So i figured we should start a discussion on him. I actually like him. Had a dream last night he actually won the derby.

What kind of odds do you think we can get on him? Over 20-1? A lot of simple minded money bet in the derby and doubt people are looking to teh Sunland Derby as much... Sometimes I wish I bet more simple minded... Classic over thinker, Ha...
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Old 04-13-2017, 09:48 AM   #2
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I like the combination of Mr Prospector line over AP Indy/ Nasrullah line. It spells dirty good to me but like Sbcaris has said I have no evidence to support my theory. But the fact that he ran down a legitimately fast pace is saying something. Many genuine plodders are stranded by a fast pace. Like the connections also. This one IMO is a live contender.
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Old 04-13-2017, 10:23 AM   #3
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The Sunland Park Derby had a contentious pace that saw one colt (Bronze Age) burned beyond recognition and a maiden (Irap) and a second string colt (Hedge Fund) floundering at the top of the lane. I'm not going to give Hence props for being able to rally past those.

He's a colt that took over 5 months to break its maiden, with all sorts of problems in its running lines ("green", "stumbled start", "shifted out", "ducked in sharply", "awkward start"). He made absolutely no impression at any point in the Southwest, one of the highest rated preps of the season.

Meanwhile, the Sunland Park Derby was one of the lowest rated preps of the season, with the slowest final figure from CJs chart of any 3yo race run on a fast main track.

Wait for the turf.
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Old 04-13-2017, 01:14 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
The Sunland Park Derby had a contentious pace that saw one colt (Bronze Age) burned beyond recognition and a maiden (Irap) and a second string colt (Hedge Fund) floundering at the top of the lane. I'm not going to give Hence props for being able to rally past those.

He's a colt that took over 5 months to break its maiden, with all sorts of problems in its running lines ("green", "stumbled start", "shifted out", "ducked in sharply", "awkward start"). He made absolutely no impression at any point in the Southwest, one of the highest rated preps of the season.

Meanwhile, the Sunland Park Derby was one of the lowest rated preps of the season, with the slowest final figure from CJs chart of any 3yo race run on a fast main track.

Wait for the turf.
You are entirely missing the point. Yes a pace scenario where they duel up front favors off pace horses. But only the talented can come home in fast time when stalking that fast pace. A quality that is a must for any off pace horse in the Kentucky Derby.

Horses that are bred towards stamina are not necessarily the most precocious so I don't regard how long he took to break his maiden as a major drawback. Running better races as distances get longer is far more important than precocity.

Other than your bottom paragraph you have some real simple minded interpretations of events.
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Old 04-13-2017, 01:59 PM   #5
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Agree with Cinci. A lot of three year olds look like dung relative to G1 company then suddenly pop.

Hence certainly has a nice pedigree. RAN on top, Buckpasser-x, DI of 3.31 with 28 points but lacking any solid or professional points. The success in the Derby of RAN sire line and also Buckpasser-x with fast fractions compels me to use this one, underneath at a minimum. Where I put him might ultimately depend on him obtaining big league pilot and Asmussen's zapper having fully charged batteries.
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Old 04-13-2017, 04:12 PM   #6
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Hence has a lot of the things I'm looking for in the a Derby horse. He has a maintain or improve pattern to his figures. He's shown finishing ability at 9F and did so with a lot of length to his stride (and, like has been said, he didn't do it by "plodding" along), which suggests he could be one of the ones better suited for 10F. He has a foundation having run in 4 races that were more than a mile in length. He has experience in big fields with 5 of his 6 career races featuring field sizes of 10+. He won his last race which is a plus. His speed figures, while maybe on the shorter side overall, certainly make him playable at a price. There's some question marks with him regarding class and whatnot, but I'm probably going to find myself willing to get an answer to those questions in the Derby at 30/1 or whatever he goes off at.
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Old 04-13-2017, 04:26 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrick View Post
Hence has a lot of the things I'm looking for in the a Derby horse. He has a maintain or improve pattern to his figures. He's shown finishing ability at 9F and did so with a lot of length to his stride (and, like has been said, he didn't do it by "plodding" along), which suggests he could be one of the ones better suited for 10F. He has a foundation having run in 4 races that were more than a mile in length. He has experience in big fields with 5 of his 6 career races featuring field sizes of 10+. He won his last race which is a plus. His speed figures, while maybe on the shorter side overall, certainly make him playable at a price. There's some question marks with him regarding class and whatnot, but I'm probably going to find myself willing to get an answer to those questions in the Derby at 30/1 or whatever he goes off at.
What you just said is very well stated but i think we'll be lucky to get 20-1

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Old 04-13-2017, 04:35 PM   #8
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What you just said is very well stated but i think we'll be lucky to get 20-1
Yeah, you could be right, Paynter. I'll be okay with using him at 20/1, though.
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Old 04-13-2017, 06:05 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer View Post
You are entirely missing the point. Yes a pace scenario where they duel up front favors off pace horses. But only the talented can come home in fast time when stalking that fast pace. A quality that is a must for any off pace horse in the Kentucky Derby.
Hence "stalked" a fast pace? He was last early by 15 lengths. The race was nearly a carbon copy, fractions and all, of the 2012 Sunland Derby, when another Baffert phony (Castaway) locked horns in a wicked duel early, spit it out at the half, and watched as the local hero (Isn't He Clever) got first run before being inhaled by an Asmussen second stringer (Daddy Nose Best).

Hence got a perfect setup. He did not brave a fast pace--he wasn't even in the second flight--and somehow manage to finish strong. Everyone in the race stopped in front of him and he lumbered along for the win.

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Horses that are bred towards stamina are not necessarily the most precocious so I don't regard how long he took to break his maiden as a major drawback. Running better races as distances get longer is far more important than precocity.
Hence is bred towards "stamina"? He's by a sprinter who has sired nothing but sprinters on the main track outside of the enigmatic Danza who took one route in his brief career. Street Boss and Into Mischief are the only prominent established stallions who's offspring have an average winning distance shorter than 7f.

Otherwise, Street Boss has been a noted sire of turf horses. In addition, the female side is littered with turf. Hence's two winning siblings did so on turf. You have to search deep to find some Derby horses in his pedigree, and when you do, its Regal Ransom and Devil May Care, who both failed in the KY Derby.

Quote:
Other than your bottom paragraph you have some real simple minded interpretations of events.
Sorry, I'll try and add some more mystification and pseudo-science to the proceedings next time.

I thought we were discussing the Kentucky Derby, not the Fantasy Stakes...
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Old 04-13-2017, 06:27 PM   #10
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when i look at hence i see a horse that's only run one bad race and that was his first start. and it's very easy toss it because of it.

even when he finished 7th in the SW stakes it was a good race. basically only losing 3rd by around 1L from post 10 the first time tackling graded stakes. this race is deceiving good. but it looks ehhhhh/bad on paper. without digging around.

(i ended up using dilettante over hence in the sunland derby. i thought he looked a lil better better than him and would be in better position. still kicking myself because of it)

if you look at his races he has a 144 on the slop oakland to break im maiden, and you really have to like that 136 for the mile as a 2yr old @ CD where he was pushing the pace the whole race.

i didn't examine his sunland race that much that much yet, but from watching it a couple of times you can tell he was going to make a big move and prolly win. he even showed a little early foot as well.

but the thing is i saw a horse that didn't want to pass horses once he got up next to them. i don't know so much if he passed these horses or if they tired and he went by. and even when he pulled up next to conquest mo there was a a brief few seconds where it didn't look like he was going to get by him.

conquest mo ran a nice race in the sunland. left for position, raced wide and tired late.
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Old 04-13-2017, 06:55 PM   #11
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He's got talent.
Something about his stride, hijinks, and slow progress( was supposed to win the Churchill MDN/BenGreely) makes me wonder about underlying issues.

If he runs his 'A' race, he at least belongs in the Derby conversation. There's also always a chance he continues to mature into a leader of the crop.

He's not my key horse, but I'm not tossing him either.
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Old 04-13-2017, 07:07 PM   #12
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i'm sorry. in my above post i meant to say hence showed a lil speed in the SW


as a side note: without cutting/pasteing the spalding/cincy spat.

i have to agree w/ spalding. not only was cincy wrong to a degree he even brought insults into the equation. whatever comeback spalding give him is justified imo.

ps......i luv me some baby ruth...haha if u see what i did here.

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Old 04-13-2017, 07:34 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post


Hence is bred towards "stamina"? He's by a sprinter who has sired nothing but sprinters on the main track outside of the enigmatic Danza who took one route in his brief career. Street Boss and Into Mischief are the only prominent established stallions who's offspring have an average winning distance shorter than 7f.

Otherwise, Street Boss has been a noted sire of turf horses. In addition, the female side is littered with turf. Hence's two winning siblings did so on turf. You have to search deep to find some Derby horses in his pedigree, and when you do, its Regal Ransom and Devil May Care, who both failed in the KY Derby.


Sorry, I'll try and add some more mystification and pseudo-science to the proceedings next time.

I thought we were discussing the Kentucky Derby, not the Fantasy Stakes...
RAN sire line, Buckpasser in the X
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Old 04-13-2017, 08:09 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Hence "stalked" a fast pace? He was last early by 15 lengths. The race was nearly a carbon copy, fractions and all, of the 2012 Sunland Derby, when another Baffert phony (Castaway) locked horns in a wicked duel early, spit it out at the half, and watched as the local hero (Isn't He Clever) got first run before being inhaled by an Asmussen second stringer (Daddy Nose Best).

Hence got a perfect setup. He did not brave a fast pace--he wasn't even in the second flight--and somehow manage to finish strong. Everyone in the race stopped in front of him and he lumbered along for the win.


Hence is bred towards "stamina"? He's by a sprinter who has sired nothing but sprinters on the main track outside of the enigmatic Danza who took one route in his brief career. Street Boss and Into Mischief are the only prominent established stallions who's offspring have an average winning distance shorter than 7f.

Otherwise, Street Boss has been a noted sire of turf horses. In addition, the female side is littered with turf. Hence's two winning siblings did so on turf. You have to search deep to find some Derby horses in his pedigree, and when you do, its Regal Ransom and Devil May Care, who both failed in the KY Derby.


Sorry, I'll try and add some more mystification and pseudo-science to the proceedings next time.

I thought we were discussing the Kentucky Derby, not the Fantasy Stakes...
You are still ducking and missing it. Mediocre closers can't close in fast fractions. A fast pace strands them. Mediocre closers can stalk(and getting into the technicalities of lengths back is also not the point) a mediocre pace and overwhelm mediocre speed. Running down a fast pace in fast fractions is only step 1 for a closer intent on winning the derby. What I am pointing out is far removed from your dumb dumb point about basic pace setups.

And you have a dumb dumb interpretation of stamina. You ignored the precocity aspect of it and are directly using the generic AWD and the skills of the sire as a rationale basis. Street Boss gets a 2** stamina rating on Helm/Progressive index and has AP Indy as a damsire influence who gets a 1**T. About as stamina oriented as you can get. That he has gotten better at longer is more important than this hair splitting anyway but your rationale is wrong regardless. The Machiavellian line of Mr Prospector produced Street Sense so I am not writing it off. Plus the horse is showing ability on dirt. If he was failing here you can cite the need for turf but he's not.

Anyway I play horses not whiffle ball. Bring your big boy bat and learn some $hit before you come at me with these generic Playschool tools!
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Old 04-13-2017, 08:55 PM   #15
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Rewatched the Southwest again tonight. Not much positive in that from him. I guess no video of any of his other races?
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