c'mon....let's be real here. hence benefited from a fast past in the sunland derby. he chugged by several cheap and dead horses from the back of the back going 1 1/8. yes it was nice that he sustained the move, but i'm not really to proclaim this horse as a must use in the KD.

imo he's just another closer in a race that has plenty of good closers. that doesn't mean you can't use him. but if your resident gambling degen that never wins starts to like him, because of what he heard or read it's a good bet he won't.

and lol @ irat that race. this pig couldn't get by hedge fund.

Hi Stan-with regard to the 3 second place finishers with prospector X-all 3 have special conduit mares. I've noticed in the past, many that fill out the tris and supers have the conduit mares designated by Bill lathrop. See the year I'll have another won. All 4 finishers had a special conduit along with ran. Orbs year I believe 3 out of 4 had a conduit. Point being we can't discount a prospector x if they have one of the conduit mares.

jules: Certainly something to consider before making ones final decisions on Derby day is the conduit mare in tail-female.

Short on class.

Thanks for the quick reply, Stan. Even though he doesn't have a designated conduit, I'm giving special attention this year to Gunnevera. He has one of the most powerful moves I've seen in some time. I've watched replays of the delta jackpot, Saratoga special, and the fountain of youth. They were all derby winning moves in my opinion. The holy bull was first off the layoff, and he was checked sharply, yet still finished well. The Floida derby was a throw out for me. It was a heavily speed favoring track, coupled withe the fact he didn't need the race for points makes it all that more impressive. In addition, as of the Florida derby, post positions 9 though 12 in dirt route races had only 3 winners out of 122 starters. It was impossible to win from out there. Couple that with the fact that he still was able to come home the final 3/8ths in 36 and change, the final 1/8th in 12 and change, and the final 5 furlongs in a little over 58 seconds makes him a serious win candidate. No RAN or conduit, but he does have buck passer X. As long as he can navigate some traffic, I believe he will win the derby. Look forward to your checklist, and best of luck as always.


Jules

"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof."
- John Kenneth Galbraith

CONFIRMATION BIAS, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias,[Note 1] is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. -wiki

Not questioning what you're saying but if Hence is at 7-1, 8-1... doesn't that mean that one of the top 3 -- Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry -- will also be at 8-1 or greater?

While it will be very easy for me to throw out Hence at 8-1 or less as an underlay, if one of the Top 3 is greater than 10-1 or so, then I might have to throw that one out too, as being 'dead' on the board. No?

hence drew well.

he might utilize some of his natural speed so that he's not that far back. and if he improves and the sunny delight derby wasn't just a pace meltdown win, he could be in really nice shape