Do you bet your handicapping contest picks?

[Capper Al]

Go for long odds is the advise given when playing in handicapping contest. One needs to get lucky to out distance the field in a handicapping contest or lose. This strategy shouldn't work at the window over the longrun where today's loss count in real money eliminate one's gambling money quickily. But in handicapping contests, there is no tomorrow or longrun. I've always played my picks as I would play them with real money. Maybe a little over disciplined to a fault. I'm thinking about changing my contest playing style, but which longshot does one play and how many? What's your take on contest play verse real wagering?

[Bobzilla]

A typical $2WP contest (e.g. nhcqualify, horsetourneys, etc.etc.) will ask the player to chose the winner of 10 to 15 different races. It would be very unusual for me to have 15, or even 10, strong opinions that would compel me to play them over the course of one day. Not only would my opinion have to be strong about a single entry but I would also have to feel I was getting, at the very least, odds that I considered fair based on my own odds line. If a given race in the contest is at a smaller track I suppose you could effect your tournament score if the wager was substantial enough. My answer would be closer to the yes option (not exactly given the wording) but probably not for more than two or three of the events, and possibly not at all.

My favorite contests have always been the live money events. I wish more contests were designed in such a way as to be a better reflection of what we as players do when we play with real money which would include the possibility of ruination.

[Bobzilla]

The vast majority of winning scores in $2WP events where there are 10 to 15 races are typically 2.5 times the total outlay. If there are 12 races in the contest one would usually have to have a total score around $120.00 to be near the top. If you're playing in the NHC where there are 30 races then it's more like twice the outlay, $240.00. These scores are usually the culmination of a series of midrange hits topped off with a longshot or two (>= 9:1). If you have a strong opinion on any of these, and it's not just an idea of what might happen or it's being played for the odds alone, I don't know why anyone wouldn't want to play it for real.

[HUSKER55]

i am not in the same league as you guys but, if you are going to handicap a race...isn't the goal to pick the top contenders and then find the best bet value?

it would seem to me that if you are going to bet long odds and hope you get lucky doesn't sound like a working approach,...to me. But I do not do contests.

Why bet against the winner? if your top pick is 1:9 and your confidence in the balance of the field is not inspiring, then move on to the next race unless you can find value in the place pools.

handicapping a race and making the proper wager are not the same, JMHO, so any advise you pros can offer would be greatly appreciated.

thanks

h55 :)

[Capper Al]

The type contest that I am talking about are 1 day or weekend contest. There is no tomorrow and someone else in the contest is bound to hit a longshot. One has to contend with this fact if they are to win. Going long on a consistent basis is a quick loser in the real world when wagering, but getting by on a day or weekend with a lucky hit is possible to take the prize.

[Tom]

Most contests I have been in have no resemblance to real world betting, and the risk of tapping out is not there, so I play a contest much differently than when I bet. Real betting is to get X dollars now, contests are to get more dollars than Joe Blow does, or lose less than he does.

[JimG]

Yes, but in exotics. I would hate to lose a contest by .10 overall and think it was my win bet that made a difference.

Jim

[Aner]

I was lucky enough compete in the NHC Las Vegas tournament in 2010. My plan was to find the best horse in each race with at least 8 entries that was at least 8:1 on the morning line. Out of the 30 races, I had 8 of my picks come in second (none won). I think if half on those had won, I would have collected some cash. Another contestant at the same tournament told me to play my best choice in the mandatory races (even if it is favored) and look for the long ones in the 15 races you get to choose. No guarantees, but sounds like good advice.

I normally play $2 win on all my long-shots.

[Capper Al]

I was lucky enough compete in the NHC Las Vegas tournament in 2010. My plan was to find the best horse in each race with at least 8 entries that was at least 8:1 on the morning line. Out of the 30 races, I had 8 of my picks come in second (none won). I think if half on those had won, I would have collected some cash. Another contestant at the same tournament told me to play my best choice in the mandatory races (even if it is favored) and look for the long ones in the 15 races you get to choose. No guarantees, but sounds like good advice.

I normally play $2 win on all my long-shots.

I heard this strategy discussed by a previous winner of the NHC.

[Overlay]

Assuming that the contest picks are based on selecting in advance with no knowledge of actual odds, I would be more inclined to make selections in the contest based on pure winning probability, but make actual non-contest wagers based on which horses are overlaid in real time.

[OTM Al]

When I do a free online one, I'll bet all of $2 W/P on each of them for fun. If it is one I paid to get in and I'm sitting there in a room with a bunch of others, it is too much a burden and breaks concentration.

[OTM Al]

Another contestant at the same tournament told me to play my best choice in the mandatory races (even if it is favored) and look for the long ones in the 15 races you get to choose. No guarantees, but sounds like good advice.

I normally play $2 win on all my long-shots.

This is what I do. Occasionally you find a good long one in a mandatory, but I have no problem going chalk if I'm pretty sure he's going to win. You have to cash as much as you can in the mandatories, as they are one off everyone's board, and swing for it in the optionals where you have your own specific edge.

[fmolf]

This is what I do. Occasionally you find a good long one in a mandatory, but I have no problem going chalk if I'm pretty sure he's going to win. You have to cash as much as you can in the mandatories, as they are one off everyone's board, and swing for it in the optionals where you have your own specific edge.
I also think that is the best strategy as well.If 6 favs come in out of 10 mandatory races, you need to have some of them to keep pace.This is not to say on the other side of the coin,if you can ferret out a longshot in a mandatory that noone else has ,that can go a long way towards winning as well!

[Tryn2win]

I dont like to be a hypocrite and tell everyone else what to bet and not bet it myself.

[raybo]

Going long on a consistent basis is a quick loser in the real world when wagering

Not true unless you're betting every race on the card(s). But, then it takes some patience to wait for the right long shots, which most people cannot force themselves to do.

[raybo]

i am not in the same league as you guys but, if you are going to handicap a race...isn't the goal to pick the top contenders and then find the best bet value?

it would seem to me that if you are going to bet long odds and hope you get lucky doesn't sound like a working approach,...to me. But I do not do contests.

Why bet against the winner? if your top pick is 1:9 and your confidence in the balance of the field is not inspiring, then move on to the next race unless you can find value in the place pools.

handicapping a race and making the proper wager are not the same, JMHO, so any advise you pros can offer would be greatly appreciated.

thanks

h55 :)

No, you're not in the same league, you're in a higher league, if you really practice what you're saying. That being said, there is merit in betting horses that are not the probable winner, if it is still an overlay. In the long run, if you have a pretty accurate probability line, and you bet only horses that are overlays to that line, you will do well.

[Capper Al]

Not true unless you're betting every race on the card(s). But, then it takes some patience to wait for the right long shots, which most people cannot force themselves to do.

I said that? I mostly go long. I struggle with putting favorites on top of longshots. Maybe what I was thinking was going long for the sake of going long.

[raybo]

I said that? I mostly go long. I struggle with putting favorites on top of longshots. Maybe what I was thinking was going long for the sake of going long.

Ok, that makes sense. The long shot must be an overlay, if you really expect to beat the public with them, long term. Betting long odds just because the odds are long won't get it, you're no better than the public then, and probably much worse.