AP Million to Breeders' Cup

[Capper Al]

I've always thought that the Arlington Million day is good prep for the Breeders' Cup. Both events are deep into the international racing scene. With international racing, we can throw pace and speed figures pretty much out the window. Class comparisons are difficult at best. And connections can be tricky. Other than that it is a piece of cake. I for one will be playing connections/pedigree. How? I don't know yet. I can't do worse than last year. Now is the time to start planning your track attack for the Breeders' Cup. Any suggestions or success stories?

[speed]

I've always thought that the Arlington Million day is good prep for the Breeders' Cup. Both events are deep into the international racing scene. With international racing, we can throw pace and speed figures pretty much out the window. Class comparisons are difficult at best. And connections can be tricky. Other than that it is a piece of cake. I for one will be playing connections/pedigree. How? I don't know yet. I can't do worse than last year. Now is the time to start planning your track attack for the Breeders' Cup. Any suggestions or success stories?
One suggestion might be to wait till you know who's running. :)
Best of Luck

[horses4courses]

Apart from Little Mike, I doubt that you will see many of the leading players in yesterday's major stakes races at Arlington Park in the Breeders' Cup.

You really have to focus on Euro trainers' intentions from next month onwards.
Virtually all of them with a high quality horse won't make a decision until October, depending on how things are going with training.

They also have big races over there to target, without a 5000 mile journey, or 80 degree California temperatures to contend with (that's hot for the Euros).

Some of them, too, will be more interested in big races at Woodbine and Belmont.
Nice lush turf courses with lower temperatures - that suits them best.

[Tom]

The Arlington Million was pretty much a text book case of pace takes the race.
As far as planing how to bet the BC Turf, that will be about mid-afternoon on the Friday before for me, in between races. I will do what I always do with races full of foreigners - bet the top couple that convert on top to CJ figs. So far, I am way ahead with that strategy.

[Striker]

Any suggestions or success stories?
Pretty much toss the horses that have raced in any of the 3 major races that you just saw at Arlington this weekend. I can't even remember a winner in the BC that had raced in any of the races on Million Day. It might not have even happened yet, maybe someone here knows. An example would be that the Beverly D winner has raced in the BC Filly and Mare Turf the last 4 years and the best finish has been a 5th by Mauralakana in 2008. The best finish in the BC Filly and Mare Turf for a Beverly D winner since 2000 has been 4th by Snow Polina(2000), Golden Apples(2002), and Heat Haze in 2003. Gorella the 2006 Bev D winner went in the BC mile and got 7th.

[gm10]

I've always thought that the Arlington Million day is good prep for the Breeders' Cup. Both events are deep into the international racing scene. With international racing, we can throw pace and speed figures pretty much out the window. Class comparisons are difficult at best. And connections can be tricky. Other than that it is a piece of cake. I for one will be playing connections/pedigree. How? I don't know yet. I can't do worse than last year. Now is the time to start planning your track attack for the Breeders' Cup. Any suggestions or success stories?

Hey I always thought that as well! The AP Million is what I consider the first serious prep for my own BC handicapping.

Success story (little one): I won the AP Pick 5 two years in a row now. I had Cape Blanco singled in the last last year, which was exciting, and it eventually paid around 13000/1 if I remember correctly.
This year, I was alive with about 7 or 8 horses in the last so I was hoping for a bigger price than Little Mike was but I'm still happy with the outcome.

Suggestion: The AP purses are high, and there isn't all that much going on in Britain during August (the York meeting is the highlight). That means that you can see a lot of Europeans (not all) go over who are chiefly concerned about picking up some decent prize money - winning the race is a bonus!

The same can be said about a few BC turf races imo. Don't be awe of a horse on the turf just because it's been running in the big European races is what I'm trying to say.

[Capper Al]

One suggestion might be to wait till you know who's running. :)
Best of Luck

I'm am talking about strategies to handicap on BC day. Now is the time to determine that especially if one writes code to handicap like I do.

[Capper Al]

The Arlington Million was pretty much a text book case of pace takes the race.
As far as planing how to bet the BC Turf, that will be about mid-afternoon on the Friday before for me, in between races. I will do what I always do with races full of foreigners - bet the top couple that convert on top to CJ figs. So far, I am way ahead with that strategy.

Thanks Tom. I guess CJ has good speed figures for the BC weekend from what you say. I know that outside North America horses have a longer run to the start. CJ must somehow take this into account. There can't be any pace figures made for Euros, as far as I know, since there isn't information on their second call.

[Capper Al]

Pretty much toss the horses that have raced in any of the 3 major races that you just saw at Arlington this weekend. I can't even remember a winner in the BC that had raced in any of the races on Million Day. It might not have even happened yet, maybe someone here knows. An example would be that the Beverly D winner has raced in the BC Filly and Mare Turf the last 4 years and the best finish has been a 5th by Mauralakana in 2008. The best finish in the BC Filly and Mare Turf for a Beverly D winner since 2000 has been 4th by Snow Polina(2000), Golden Apples(2002), and Heat Haze in 2003. Gorella the 2006 Bev D winner went in the BC mile and got 7th.

Thanks. Maybe what's being confirmed is the lack of quality horses in the US, but US horses do win especially on dirt or poly.

[Capper Al]

Hey I always thought that as well! The AP Million is what I consider the first serious prep for my own BC handicapping.

Success story (little one): I won the AP Pick 5 two years in a row now. I had Cape Blanco singled in the last last year, which was exciting, and it eventually paid around 13000/1 if I remember correctly.
This year, I was alive with about 7 or 8 horses in the last so I was hoping for a bigger price than Little Mike was but I'm still happy with the outcome.

Suggestion: The AP purses are high, and there isn't all that much going on in Britain during August (the York meeting is the highlight). That means that you can see a lot of Europeans (not all) go over who are chiefly concerned about picking up some decent prize money - winning the race is a bonus!

The same can be said about a few BC turf races imo. Don't be awe of a horse on the turf just because it's been running in the big European races is what I'm trying to say.

Thanks. The question still remains. What do you look for in International Racing where the data and the information avaialable is so limited?

[gm10]

Thanks. The question still remains. What do you look for in International Racing where the data and the information avaialable is so limited?

I use my own pace/speed figures for both British and American racing.
(As this came up earlier in this thread ... my pace ratings for UK horses are based on their performance comments ... phrases such as "in rear" or "prominent".)

Additionally, I try to keep up with international racing, so that I have an idea of the best horses and their ranking order. This is quite a big job and not one that I claim to be expert in ... there are a lot of races that you need to be aware of!

Finally, the one indispensable tool for international form is the racingpost.com website. Even if you're not a paying member, you can access all collateral form of all the horses, and their official ratings.

[Valuist]

Thanks. The question still remains. What do you look for in International Racing where the data and the information avaialable is so limited?

You can watch many of the big European races on You Tube. Now there are instances in which the race calls are in a foreign language, but many times they have a British call, at least in some of the races from France that I've watched.

[Capper Al]

Euro's don't seem to be number cruncher friendly. Trip handicappers seem to have the best of it from what I'm reading in this thread.

[cj]

Euro's don't seem to be number cruncher friendly. Trip handicappers seem to have the best of it from what I'm reading in this thread.

I haven't had any complaints from customers with converted Euro numbers.

[Tom]

When Ivasor (he is the best!) won the Pimlico Special, CJ remarked in the War Room that he was his top figure horse. I asked how he got a figure on a foreign horse. The rest, as they say, is history.

I have made a lot of money betting horse with no US numbers available using the CJ conversion. It has proven itself over and over for many years now. Not everyone, but enough and at decent odds many times. The two BCs at Santa Anitia on the poly were nothing short of gold mines. I look forward to Dubai every year.

[Capper Al]

I haven't had any complaints from customers with converted Euro numbers.

CJ,

Without giving us your formula, with is your data source for your Euro conversion?

Thanks

[cj]

CJ,

Without giving us your formula, with is your data source for your Euro conversion?

Thanks

Currently my program uses Racing Post because that is what it is in Formulator. Previously, it was Timeform. Personally, I much prefer Timeform and use it personally for the big days.

[Capper Al]

Currently my program uses Racing Post because that is what it is in Formulator. Previously, it was Timeform. Personally, I much prefer Timeform and use it personally for the big days.

Thanks.

[horses4courses]

Here's a race this coming Saturday that could matter come BC weekend.

The Irish Champion Stakes is a ten furlong turf race run at Leopardstown in suburban Dublin.
It is a left handed track, with a fairly stiff uphill finish.
Snow Fairy, Nathaniel, and any number of Aidan O'Brien trained runners, are key horses to watch for this weekend.

It's always been a race near and dear to my heart, as I lived within a few miles of the track for many years.

Here's a couple of links:

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/2/8048555/big-guns-target-irish-champion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Champion_Stakes

Good luck!