2012 presidential election odds

[bigmack]

Either that, or they mirror the winners bets
I'm relishing these hacks getting all cocksure, suckin' on bogus polls. :D

B27XE04FPn0

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/UnSkewedPolls--erasingthebiastoshowanaccuratepictureofpolitics.pn g

And now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go find someone dumb enough to bet the Masters.

[hcap]

I'm relishing these hacks getting all cocksure, suckin' on bogus polls. :D

B27XE04FPn0

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/UnSkewedPolls--erasingthebiastoshowanaccuratepictureofpolitics.pn g

And now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go find someone dumb enough to bet the Masters.Suckin' on bogus polls? If I remember Dickie Boy was busted sucking a ladies toes (dressed as a 18th century schoolboy?) Could indeed have been Polish...............

Pray tell where did you dig up that calculus intensive philosophically incisive extremely well researched graphic?

[horses4courses]

Is that Liberace in the cerise blouse?

[johnhannibalsmith]

Is that Liberace in the cerise blouse?

Puuuhleeeaze, you can dress him up, but he's no piano man.

http://www.scifiwright.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/PENGUIN-4.jpg

[horses4courses]

Puuuhleeeaze, you can dress him up, but he's no piano man.

http://www.scifiwright.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/PENGUIN-4.jpg

You have a point there........ ;)

[GameTheory]

Pray tell where did you dig up that calculus intensive philosophically incisive extremely well researched graphic?
unskewedpolls.com (http://www.unskewedpolls.com)

[Tom]

Obviously, this topic is far above the run of the mill PA liberal.

[elysiantraveller]

Tell that to to a long list of republican pundits. Bll Kristol said it was a possibility that Speaker Pelosi might be weildi1ng the gavel come the 7th

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/09/bill-kristol-sounds-house-alarm-136500.html


Negative advertising is not the problem. An almost dead in the water campaign is. Mr Excitement is a dud

So when Romney was doing the same during the GOP primary it was because of spending but when the polls and Obama's spending correspond to higher numbers its a "dead in the water campaign."

Huh... shows what I know... :rolleyes:

[lamboguy]

new election line from thegreek.com------the democrats are now -$4.20-$100

[Valuist]

This may true or not -- I don't know; but would you agree that "only an idiot" would make a bet straight-up on a wager that the books are laying 350 on?

The bookmakers opened the line around -200 or -210. The public bet it up to -400. When the betting public is all on one side, how does that work out for them? Not too good.

[Jay Trotter]

Speaking of idiots, what a clown you are.Why the personal attack on me? I haven't even addressed you in a good while!

My comment was just a general observation to a statement unrelated to you. You really should check your animosity at the door.

Just give Peace a chance, eh!:ThmbUp:

[mountainman]

It's over. And it can't be long before the exodus. Well before election day, more and more repubs will brace for the inevitable by distancing themselves and claiming he was never the candidate "they" wanted.

Self-delusion continues for now, but the time is fast approaching when they grab the overhead bags, stick their heads between their knees, and prepare for impact. Happy landing.

[horses4courses]

It's over. And it can't be long before the exodus. Well before election day, more and more repubs will brace for the inevitable by distancing themselves and claiming he was never the candidate "they" wanted.

Self-delusion continues for now, but the time is fast approaching when they grab the overhead bags, stick their heads between their knees, and prepare for impact. Happy landing.

Be interesting to see if the money keeps coming in strong.
People hate backing a loser.

[Tom]

Be interesting to see if the money keeps coming in strong.
People hate backing a loser.

That hasn't stopped Obama's fund raising - Hollywood keeps backing that loser.

[lamboguy]

this election looks like there are 2 key components. 1. Bill Clinton has to say something good about the candidate, he did that for both guys. and you have to have no association to former president Bush. Obama has been running against Bush for 5 years already, and Romney better start today.

[mostpost]

this election looks like there are 2 key components. 1. Bill Clinton has to say something good about the candidate, he did that for both guys. and you have to have no association to former president Bush. Obama has been running against Bush for 5 years already, and Romney better start today.
Do you really think that Bill Clinton saying a few kind words about Romney when introducing him at the Clinton Global Initiative is the same as him supporting Obama at the DNC? Obviously you are going to be courteous and positive when someone is a guest at your event. You can not possible believe the Clinton would support Romney over Obama.

[ceejay]

New York Times presidential horse race analyst puts Obama at 81.9% today. Just like a deep closer in a horse race who has no racing room Romney is running out of time. Every day he does not make progress increases Obama's chances.

[lamboguy]

Do you really think that Bill Clinton saying a few kind words about Romney when introducing him at the Clinton Global Initiative is the same as him supporting Obama at the DNC? Obviously you are going to be courteous and positive when someone is a guest at your event. You can not possible believe the Clinton would support Romney over Obama.he didn't say anything bad about him!

people are petrified that Romney is the same as Bush, that's the only reason that he's so far behind. if there was no such thing as Bush, i honestly think
Romney would be way ahead in this field of horses.

[johnhannibalsmith]

he didn't say anything bad about him!

people are petrified that Romney is the same as Bush, that's the only reason that he's so far behind. if there was no such thing as Bush, i honestly think
Romney would be way ahead in this field of horses.

If there was no such thing as Bush, there'd be no Obama to run against.

[lamboguy]

If there was no such thing as Bush, there'd be no Obama to run against.
that's for sure, but running is one thing, winning is the other

[hcap]

I'm relishing these hacks getting all cocksure, suckin' on bogus polls. :D

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/UnSkewedPolls--erasingthebiastoshowanaccuratepictureofpolitics.pn g

And now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go find someone dumb enough to bet the Masters.So, let me get this straight, you guys think all the major polling outfits are biased but the conservative favorite is not?

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 9/12 - 9/26 -- -- 48.9 44.9 Obama +4.0
Rasmussen Tracking 9/24 - 9/26 1500 LV 3.0 46 46 Tie
Gallup Tracking 9/20 - 9/26 3050 RV 2.0 50 44 Obama +6
Bloomberg 9/21 - 9/24 789 LV 3.5 49 43 Obama +6
Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/16 - 9/20 1000 LV 3.1 50 47 Obama +3
National Journal 9/15 - 9/19 1055 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 50 45 Obama +5

One that is not shown here is Fox News that has Obama up around 7 and leading in swing states.
Is Fox NOT skewed, skewed or what?

Also there is reason to distrust the feel good damn the reality Unskewed polling theory

http://www.businessinsider.com/unskewedpolls-2012-9

[lamboguy]

new election line from thegreek.com,,,,,the democrats are now -$480-$100

[hcap]

Unlike DickieBoy Morris and "Unskewed polls"


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/sept-26-could-2012-be-like-2008/?smid=tw-share

September 27, 2012, 9:55 am447 Comments
Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?
By NATE SILVER

There’s no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst polling days of the year on Wednesday.

It began with a series of polls from The New York Times, CBS News and Quinnipiac University, released early Wednesday morning, which gave President Obama leads of between 9 and 11 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Later in the day, Mr. Romney got polls showing unfavorable numbers for him in Colorado and Iowa.

http://americablog.com.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Screen-Shot-2012-09-27-at-1.04.17-PM-e1348765497732.jpg

[hcap]

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum

The Republican Brain: Constructing an Alternate Polling Reality for 2012

—By Kevin Drum
Fri Sep. 28, 2012

One of the odder little subplots of the 2012 election has been the growth of poll denialism among Republicans. As Mitt Romney's chances have grown ever dimmer, a cottage industry has sprung up on the right claiming that presidential polls suffer from liberal bias and Romney is really doing better than they say. "When the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45," explains conservative pundit Dick Morris, "he's really probably losing by 52-48!"

[Tom]

How'd those exit polls in 2004 work out for ya, hcap? :lol:

[lamboguy]

How'd those exit polls in 2004 work out for ya, hcap? :lol:i know more guys that lost their money on that one! i think those polls were an out and out bag job. there must have been billions lost on that election.

[hcap]

How'd those exit polls in 2004 work out for ya, hcap? :lol:I remember election night 2008 at Fox. Made up for feeling bad in '04.

http://southofheaven.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451960269e20148c7b9c944970c-800wi

BTW, Fox has Obama up +5

[Tom]

Empty again,huh? :D

If you ignore the past, it won't go away.
Polls are like butts - everyone has one, some play with theirs more than others.

[hcap]

Empty again,huh? :D

If you ignore the past, it won't go away.
Polls are like butts - everyone has one, some play with theirs more than others.Like inserting their heads in theirs to avoid the cold reality that their guy is an awful candidate and all the polls are showing that except the ones in DickieMorris dreamland?

[Tom]

Like I said - empty again.
Yes, he is an awful candidate.
Until you compare him to Obama, then he looks like Christ rising fro the Dead!
Of course, comparing a TURD to Obama makes it look like GOLD.

If polls meant a thing, John Kerry would have been president.

I have been called at least 15 times for polls, and guess what, I LIED on every one of them.:rolleyes:

[ceejay]

If I did not believe that the polls are accurate, I would jump at nearly 5-1 on Romney.

[PaceAdvantage]

You guys heard it here first...

Obama has a 134% chance at winning reelection.

Hopefully, this fact will stop the spamming about what a lock Obama is....

We get it...the rumor is the election is going to be cancelled by executive order to prevent people from wasting their time.

Go libs! :ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

You guys heard it here first...

Obama has a 134% chance at winning reelection.



What's the margin of error?

[hcap]

http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_intrade_obama_2012_09_28.jpg

Obama's standing at InTrade at two points in time: (a) after Mitt Romney's response to the Cairo attacks, and (b) after Mo Jones's release of the secret fund raising video.

OOPs
OOPs

[hcap]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/09/wallace-criticism-of-polls-is-craziness-136983.html

Wallace: Criticism of polls is 'craziness'

Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace called right-wing criticism of the polls "craziness" today, a slam against conservatives who are trying to discredit recent polls that show Mitt Romney trailing President Barack Obama by wide margins.


....Poor DickieBoyMorris


You gentlemen can only hope Romney nails Obama in the debates. And even then.............................................. ..............................................???? ???????????????



And

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/unskewed-polls_b_1924293.html

Mark Blumenthal

'Unskewed Polls' Critics Miss Basics Of Party Identification"

WASHINGTON -- Eight years ago this week, I launched a new blog on political polling with a post on party identification. At the time, many Democrats were up in arms over survey samples that seemed too Republican and were contending that if pollsters would adjust for the "apparent overrepresentation" of Republicans in their samples, Sen. John Kerry would be running a closer race against President George W. Bush.

Two presidential elections later, the argument over the partisan makeup of poll samples continues, only this time the roles are reversed. Now it's Republicans and conservative pundits railing against allegedly "skewed polls." This year's controversy has one new dimension: a website devoted to recalculating poll results to match a partisan composition more favorable to the Republicans

[bigmack]

I laugh when I hear loons talk about a Rasmuski bias.

Now let's see what's crackin' on this 9/28 from THE MOST ACCURATE polling service in '08, ladies & germs...

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/DailyPresidentialTrackingPoll-RasmussenReports.png
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[hcap]

I guess you might be correcto .

Romney is "Skewed""

http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/colbert-mocks-fox-complaints-about-skewed

[hcap]

http://www.balloon-juice.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/touchdown-romney.jpg


"I laugh when I hear loons talk about a Rasmuski bias."

But the question remains.....

If one laughs and there is no one around to hear him laugh, then does that mean on the 7th you are NOT posting?

[Tom]

You guys heard it here first...

Obama has a 134% chance at winning reelection.

Hopefully, this fact will stop the spamming about what a lock Obama is....

We get it...the rumor is the election is going to be cancelled by executive order to prevent people from wasting their time.

Go libs! :ThmbUp:

And he will not be inaugurated, He will Ascend!

[hcap]

And he will not be inaugurated, He will Ascend!Reminds me of Saint Ronald.

[badcompany]

Putting ideology aside, all other things being equal, how much is simply being the incumbent worth?

My guess is that's it's akin to being the home team in football, about 5-6 points.

[Tom]

hcap, Reagan never was never able to walk more than halfway across the Potomac.

But on land, he was ....well, you be the judge!

[Valuist]

Putting ideology aside, all other things being equal, how much is simply being the incumbent worth?

My guess is that's it's akin to being the home team in football, about 5-6 points.

Its 3 points in football. The biggest in college basketball, where its worth 4 to 5 points.

[hcap]

Tom, it is obvious why you are impressed with Saint Ronald dressed as a hollywood cowboy........

http://images2.bridgemanart.com/cgi-bin/bridgemanImage.cgi/400wm.PNP.3296520.7055475/253744.jpg

:lol: :lol:

[hcap]

Hey Tom, does that net look a bit crooked to you? You know a bit Skewsd?

http://ionenewsone.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/obama-basketball.jpg

[Tom]

Tom, it is obvious why you are impressed with Saint Ronald dressed as a hollywood cowboy........

http://images2.bridgemanart.com/cgi-bin/bridgemanImage.cgi/400wm.PNP.3296520.7055475/253744.jpg

:lol: :lol:

I'll take Bonzo over Bozo any day.:lol:

[Rookies]

Poor old Burger Boy.

His only respite for the spectacular collapse of Mangacake Mittens is trolling Con bottom feeding blogs to find solace... in "Really Screwed Up Polling." :D

'If 6 was 9', if Alice wasn't 10 feet tall, if Mittens wasn't his Uncle, then everything would be okley-dokely in reality, rather than bizzaro parallel world where he's leading! :lol:

[bigmack]

I have every intention of getting a bib come Nov6.

Figure I'll be laughing so hard I'll over salivate and don't want to ruin a good shirt.

[Jay Trotter]

I have every intention of getting a bib come Nov6.

Figure I'll be laughing so hard I'll over salivate and don't want to ruin a good shirt.Salivating and drool are two completely different things -- perhaps you should look them up! :lol:

http://sleepingresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Homer-Simpson-Drooling-while-Sleeping.gif

[nearco]

Ladbrokes... http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/us-presidential-election/2012-us-presidential-race-e212304268
Obama - 1/6
Romney - 4/1

Paddy Power... http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/us-politics/Winning-Candidate-2816893.html
Obama - 1/7
Romney -9/2

If they polls are right, then the bookies are giving away free money on Romney at 9/2. Worth a flutter?

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com has taken the 2012 presidential election off their board for now as of 7:45 p.m. eastern time september 30

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com has put the election line back up on the board------the democrats are still -$480-$100

[GameTheory]

Get your Romney bets in now -- the prices aren't going to be so great next week...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Get your Romney bets in now -- the prices aren't going to be so great next week...

I agree. The debates present a big problem for Democrats. It has nothing to do with who is the better speaker or better in debates or teleprompters. They've been able to refine the narrative on Romney to their liking for public consumption. On almost any subject that they have attacked Romney on, the last thing that they should probably do is approach those subjects in a debate setting and allow Romney to rebut what they've already defined for the public. They almost have to stay on topic, on the issues, and that's not where they want to be in this election.

[elysiantraveller]

Get your Romney bets in now -- the prices aren't going to be so great next week...

I don't bet politics... I would agree with your assessment though.

[Tom]

The debates follow Survivor Wednesday night.
I think after seeing a head to head, where the democrap can be exposed for the lies that is is, most of America, the 53% with brains anyway, will saying "It is time for you to go." to Barry-boy.

[horses4courses]

The debates follow Survivor Wednesday night.
I think after seeing a head to head, where the democrap can be exposed for the lies that is is, most of America, the 53% with brains anyway, will saying "It is time for you to go." to Barry-boy.

Your mind is playing tricks on you, Tom.
That sounds more like "Fantasy Island".

[GameTheory]

I actually think a huge part of the electorate, and certainly the most important part at this juncture (those that are undecided or can be swayed) HAVE NEVER SEEN ROMNEY. I mean sure, yes, they've seen clips in commercials and on the news and the Daily Show, etc (mostly negative) but they never seen him give a speech or an interview or a town hall meeting or any of that stuff -- they've just never seen him in a "real" setting for an extended time like a debate or a town hall. I've hardly seen him and I sort of pay attention. Most of those people would not have watched any of the Republican primary stuff or the conventions, but most people that haven't decided will watch the debates -- the first one anyway. (After that, they may get bored.) If Romney doesn't flub it and doesn't come off as a douche-bag, he wins. Otherwise, he might win anyway as I think this is really all about Obama, but Romney really needs to make a good impression, and it will be a first impression for those that matter.

[Valuist]

I agree. The debates present a big problem for Democrats. It has nothing to do with who is the better speaker or better in debates or teleprompters. They've been able to refine the narrative on Romney to their liking for public consumption. On almost any subject that they have attacked Romney on, the last thing that they should probably do is approach those subjects in a debate setting and allow Romney to rebut what they've already defined for the public. They almost have to stay on topic, on the issues, and that's not where they want to be in this election.

When you say "they", I assume you mean not just the Dems but the mainstream media as well.

[bigmack]

These debates will demonstrate fully why there's an adult table and a kids table for holiday meals. BO has been sitting at the kids table talking about rich people paying more taxes and taxes paying for contraceptives but those conversations won't hold much water at the adult table he's about to sit at.

It's time to hold the kindergartner's feet to the fire.

[lamboguy]

even if Romney smokes this guy in these debates, what makes anyone think that he can win the election?

[bigmack]

even if Romney smokes this guy in these debates, what makes anyone think that he can win the election?
Logic?

[PaceAdvantage]

even if Romney smokes this guy in these debates, what makes anyone think that he can win the election?The polls are still rather close, especially for a guy who is supposedly -480 overseas...

[Tom]

What would be a really good idea is, seeing how this debate is focusing on the economy, not ask one single question about it - focus the whole 90 minutes on national security, under the argument that as POTUS, you have to ready for anything at any time. Now, shut up and answer the questions, boys.

[PaceAdvantage]

The look of a man who knows his odds are about to get better:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/121001_romney_4x3_603a.photoblog600.jpg

[lamboguy]

Logic?they threw everything at this guy, bad employment numbers, bad economy, phony birth certificate, mishandling of middle east crisis, and his odds have repeatably been going up. i am expecting him to get trounced in these debates and his poll numbers and betting odds to go up. it seems like the more bad stuff that comes out on him and his presidency, the tougher it gets to beat him.

i don't have the reason or logic, but the world turns sometimes and things don't make sense.

the recent loss of 4 people in the middle east is enough to take him out of office in years past.

[horses4courses]

The look of a man who knows his odds are about to get better:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/121001_romney_4x3_603a.photoblog600.jpg

Wow....looks to me like a man slipping out the side door of a bus station.

http://www.wtsp.com/images/640/360/2/assetpool/images/110813033403_greyhound-bus-logo.jpg

[PaceAdvantage]

Greyhounds...fleet of foot, lean...we could use some of that in government these days...especially the lean part...way too much fat these days, as evidenced by the bloating debt load...

[fast4522]

Sorry gentlemen (and kabong,) Romney will fold when asked by Obama about his health care plan during the first debate.

All down hill after that for the No bounce Dynamic Duo.

Hot damm,

The time is upon us, will Hcap be correct and Obozo lands the knockout punch? I just think if the guy's correct he should win something, because if not things are sure gonna get interesting round here!

[horses4courses]

The polls are still rather close, especially for a guy who is supposedly -480 overseas...

I keep waiting for that Romney buyback money to arrive...it ain't happening.
Not yet, anyway.

-6.00/-7.00 is the consensus with the books in the UK now.

[PaceAdvantage]

I keep waiting for that Romney buyback money to arrive...it ain't happening.
Not yet, anyway.

-6.00/-7.00 is the consensus with the books in the UK now.What was the line on the Ryder Cup again? I don't follow golf much at all...I'm only regurgitating what I read in another thread...wasn't the US a bigger favorite to win than Obama?

Goes to show you what the betting public knows some days...

Polls ain't all that accurate either, but I'll buy them before I buy overseas betting money...

[horses4courses]

What was the line on the Ryder Cup again? I don't follow golf much at all...I'm only regurgitating what I read in another thread...wasn't the US a bigger favorite to win than Obama?

Goes to show you what the betting public knows some days...

Polls ain't all that accurate either, but I'll buy them before I buy overseas betting money...

The "betting in running" is highly volatile, which is what caused the odds to get so overwhelming on the US at one point (-50.00).
Before the contest started, US was favored at around -1.50, which was a fair reflection of their chances from square one.
Of course, you're right - upsets happen.
I can't understand, though, why Romney is getting no play at as high as +5.00.
Doesn't make sense...... :confused:

[GameTheory]

even if Romney smokes this guy in these debates, what makes anyone think that he can win the election?All he has to do is look like a viable alternative and he wins. Among the credible polls, the election is tied.

And the wacky polls can be ignored. I mean take Florida and Ohio -- is it really plausible that Obama is going to win these states by LARGER margins that 2008? Does that make one lick of sense? Do even the die-hard liberals believe that? Those polls are junk. When you start to examine them (if you can get your hands on the actual poll given and the methodology) you can see why. For instance, one of the telephone polls asks this to get the person the line they want to interview, "Can I please speak to the youngest person in the household who is at least 18 and is registered to vote?" Red flags, anyone? Which way do you think that poll is going to lean?

Normally around this time they start switching to "likely voter" models which are more accurate, but you'll still see a lot of sloppy work. The Gallup tracking poll is pretty good (adjust it by +2 Romney, -2 Obama it is about right), but even that has not yet switched to likely voters (just using registered voters) -- I read they are switching within the week. But I expect you'll see them zero in closer to reality as the election nears because they don't want to look too far off with the real results or they won't continue to get polling work in future elections...

[Native Texan III]

What was the line on the Ryder Cup again? I don't follow golf much at all...I'm only regurgitating what I read in another thread...wasn't the US a bigger favorite to win than Obama?

Goes to show you what the betting public knows some days...

Polls ain't all that accurate either, but I'll buy them before I buy overseas betting money...

Why do you think the majority of the money is not coming from USA?
The betting market has proved the most accurate predictor of all in politics.

[lamboguy]

All he has to do is look like a viable alternative and he wins. Among the credible polls, the election is tied.

And the wacky polls can be ignored. I mean take Florida and Ohio -- is it really plausible that Obama is going to win these states by LARGER margins that 2008? Does that make one lick of sense? Do even the die-hard liberals believe that? Those polls are junk. When you start to examine them (if you can get your hands on the actual poll given and the methodology) you can see why. For instance, one of the telephone polls asks this to get the person the line they want to interview, "Can I please speak to the youngest person in the household who is at least 18 and is registered to vote?" Red flags, anyone? Which way do you think that poll is going to lean?

Normally around this time they start switching to "likely voter" models which are more accurate, but you'll still see a lot of sloppy work. The Gallup tracking poll is pretty good (adjust it by +2 Romney, -2 Obama it is about right), but even that has not yet switched to likely voters (just using registered voters) -- I read they are switching within the week. But I expect you'll see them zero in closer to reality as the election nears because they don't want to look too far off with the real results or they won't continue to get polling work in future elections...that is a much better explanation than what i have. i am just going by what i am seeing , i might be very gullible, i just don't believe a good debate is going to mean 1 blessed thing in this election either way. it will be good entertainment though as i am sure this will be one of the biggest draws of all time for television ratings

[bigmack]

i just don't believe a good debate is going to mean 1 blessed thing in this election either way.
How did they (the debates) change so much in 1980 and now they're meaningless?

[Dave Schwartz]

Months ago, when I said that I wished I could wager $1,000 that Obama would win, people told me I was nuts.

(Please note that this is not because I want Obama to win.)

Now he is pretty much 1/4 or more everywhere.


If only my horse investing was this accurate.

[Jay Trotter]

On my recent trip to Montana I had the opportunity to meet with Barack and Hillary and they strongly hinted to wager "all you got" on a Romney loss. :ThmbUp:

[ElKabong]

On my recent trip to Montana I had the opportunity to meet with Barack and Hillary and they strongly hinted to wager "all you got" on a Romney loss. :ThmbUp:

No can do. They had to pay off the media for covering up Benghazi Gate, and Fast and Furious. It was called QE3, and there's no mo' cash left

[ElKabong]

What was the line on the Ryder Cup again? I don't follow golf much at all...I'm only regurgitating what I read in another thread...wasn't the US a bigger favorite to win than Obama?

Goes to show you what the betting public knows some days...

Polls ain't all that accurate either, but I'll buy them before I buy overseas betting money...

Imagine a horse race 50 days away. Who's dumb enough to walk up to a window and bet it at current odds, either way? (again, rhetorical question)

A lot of things can happen before a horse race (spike a fever, injury) just like it can in an election (October surprise, or Biden short circuiting in front of a live audience in a debate, Obama having his arse handed to him with the economic misery in debates).

And what if some Oct surprise shows Romney in a very bad light? You never know.

So much can happen between now and then. Makes no sense to bet until the bell...on anything. Unless of course some blow hard rides in smacking about a poll that has so-and-so 10+ pts up in a couple of key states. In that case, take the sucker on his smack, and offer a bet...."Sucker bets only" this far out. All else, just let it play out

[Tom]

On my recent trip to Montana I had the opportunity to meet with Barack and Hillary and they strongly hinted to wager "all you got" on a Romney loss. :ThmbUp:

Touts, now, are they? :D
Considering their Legacy of Losing, I'll book those bets! :lol:

[Tom]

Imagine a horse race 50 days away. Who's dumb enough to walk up to a window and bet it at current odds, either way? (again, rhetorical question)
1-800-dial-a-dope
tpAOwJvTOio

[Jay Trotter]

Touts, now, are they? :D
Considering their Legacy of Losing, I'll book those bets! :lol:Now Tom, I said "strongly hinted" which may have just been a misinterpretation on my part. How do I look in yellow by the way? (it's actually buttercup):rolleyes:

[hcap]

Greyhounds...fleet of foot, lean...we could use some of that in government these days...especially the lean part...way too much fat these days, as evidenced by the bloating debt load...Looks like Romney The Fleet of Foot Greyhound may put at least one foot in his"Fleet Of Flip Flopping mouth"

He will wind up strapped to the roof of Obama's car

[PaceAdvantage]

He will wind up strapped to the roof of Obama's carWhat better place to take a watery dump, eh?

[bigmack]

What better place to take a watery dump, eh?
:D Not bad.

[hcap]

What better place to take a watery dump, eh?Like spitting a few gallons INTO the wind?

[ArlJim78]

HOLD ALL TICKETS!:lol:

Drudge has the siren up, some bombshell video on Fox tonight.
(although these things never turn out to be much of anything, we can still hope)

[Lefty]

lamby, I hope you're not putting much stock in those polls that are heavily weighted with sampling more dims than repubs.

[lamboguy]

lamby, I hope you're not putting much stock in those polls that are heavily weighted with sampling more dims than repubs.
i have never said anything about polls, just betting lines. talk is real cheap, these guys will let you bet this election for $50,000 on either side that you might want. they aren't worried about phony polls, they have insiders that are betting them all types of money.

[Striker]

What was the line on the Ryder Cup again? I don't follow golf much at all...I'm only regurgitating what I read in another thread...wasn't the US a bigger favorite to win than Obama?

Goes to show you what the betting public knows some days...

Polls ain't all that accurate either, but I'll buy them before I buy overseas betting money...
Before the Ryder Cup started it was -160 for the US, nowhere near what Obama is favored at right now, according to lambo's sources in the thread. I'll assume you are talking about what the US was favored to win heading in to the final day though, but that isn't apples to apples with the election timeline right now.

[Lefty]

lamby if they are not making their line using polls and the fact that the lamestream media is in the tank for Obummer, what do you think they are basing their oddsline on?

[horses4courses]

lamby if they are not making their line using polls and the fact that the lamestream media is in the tank for Obummer, what do you think they are basing their oddsline on?

Money....pure and simple.

Initially, yes, they will base a line on polls and prognostications.
That line opened months back - after that it's cash dollars.

[GameTheory]

It is only the final odds that are known to be accurate, of course. The question is whether they will change much between now and then. Yes, people are betting real money, but still no one knows what is going to happen and people can only base their bets on polls, etc. So if the polls are slanted, so will the betting be. It isn't like everyone who is voting is also each betting an equal amount -- heck, these aren't even American markets except for Iowa. All the bets are all still just guesses.

Who would have thought we'd have a bunch of horseplayers sitting around saying the favorite can't possibly lose? Hello? Favorites can and do lose, but of course this isn't sports where anything can happen on game day either.

[elysiantraveller]

Who would have thought we'd have a bunch of horseplayers sitting around saying the favorite can't possibly lose? Hello? Favorites can and do lose, but of course this isn't sports where anything can happen on game day either.

BmjHT5GpAYQ

[lamboguy]

lamby if they are not making their line using polls and the fact that the lamestream media is in the tank for Obummer, what do you think they are basing their oddsline on?that is 100% not true. the line is based solely on the amount of money bet on either side. in this line there is a big spread between the underdog and favorite. it is quite possible that the bettors are wrong, they often are. in any type of betting there are people that are using bets to arbitrage or hedge something.

the betting line is a lot larger than the polls which are all within the margin of error.

from what i know the internal polls from the Romney camp think they are in deep trouble in Ohio. that might be why there is so much money bet on the democrats right now. it is entirely possible that the internal Romney poll in Ohio is correct and the republicans can still win this election with other states. i don't know the numbers from the other key states, they could easily be much closer than Ohio.

[horses4courses]

It is only the final odds that are known to be accurate, of course. The question is whether they will change much between now and then. Yes, people are betting real money, but still no one knows what is going to happen and people can only base their bets on polls, etc. So if the polls are slanted, so will the betting be. It isn't like everyone who is voting is also each betting an equal amount -- heck, these aren't even American markets except for Iowa. All the bets are all still just guesses.

Who would have thought we'd have a bunch of horseplayers sitting around saying the favorite can't possibly lose? Hello? Favorites can and do lose, but of course this isn't sports where anything can happen on game day either.

But how can you explain the odds on offer against Romney?
People are being offered up to 5-1 odds, and not betting on it?
Of course Romney could win....but there's nobody willing to risk serious money on it until it reaches what price - 6,7, 8-1???
These books (especially the greek.com taking $50K before they move the line) are crying out for money on Romney.
They're begging people to bet on him.
The action is so one sided it's scary.
Doesn't make sense to me.

For example, what if I had bet $50K on Obama at -2.00?
I would stand to win $25K if he wins.
At this point, though, I could bet $10K on Romney (or even more to get a win on either side) and protect my original $50K bet. Obama would win me $15K for no risk. $15K on Romney at 5-1 would have me winning $10K no matter who won. What a deal - for anyone who maxxed at a good price. It's buyback time for those guys, but they're not biting. Very strange.....

[GameTheory]

But how can you explain the odds on offer against Romney?
People are being offered up to 5-1 odds, and not betting on it?
Of course Romney could win....but there's nobody willing to risk serious money on it until it reaches what price - 6,7, 8-1???
These books (especially the greek.com taking $50K before they move the line) are crying out for money on Romney.
They're begging people to bet on him.
The action is so one sided it's scary.
Doesn't make sense to me.You act like Obama is at 1/9.

But anyway, the reason is because that's the narrative. Also, these markets are European and in the UK, right? These are not Americans betting primarily. There is NO dissent to the narrative over there -- Obama will win big end of discussion. At least in the US there is argument about it. Over there it is 100% certain.

You have to go back all the way to 1980 to find a similar situation. I don't know what the betting markets would have been, but in the polls Carter was up up up -- still up within a week of the election he was several points up and it was the biggest blowout of the modern era the other way. (But tellingly, when comparing likely voters to registered voters, the likely voters were 5 points less for Carter than registered voters which is exactly the kind of thing we'll see this time. And most of the credible polls we are seeing now are of registered voters -- we'll see them switch to likely over the next month.)

I can also tell you that the betting markets in 2000 at the beginning of October had Gore up about 65-35, but at the end of October it was almost exactly the reverse. Didn't Dave say something earlier like, "They can't be THAT wrong." Of course they can -- it is only the beginning of October. The election is a long way off -- probably nobody "serious" has bet on either side. If Obama is still up big in the markets 2 days before the election, you've got a good argument. But now? Means nothing. (Or more accurately, it is reflective of the media or whatever, but not of actual voter intentions.)

Like I said earlier, I think the people that will decide this election have never seen Romney. Haven't got a clue about him. So as far as I'm concerned, the election doesn't even START until the debate tomorrow. All that has preceded has just been entertainment for political junkies, but is of little consequence. As long as Romney can seem like a decent bloke that isn't completely clueless (doesn't matter if he is right, or tells the truth, or anything like that), then he wins in November, and probably big. But since this IS Romney we're talking about, that's a big if. I'm calling it after tomorrow though...

[johnhannibalsmith]

that is 100% not true. the line is based solely on the amount of money bet on either side. in this line there is a big spread between the underdog and favorite. it is quite possible that the bettors are wrong, they often are. in any type of betting there are people that are using bets to arbitrage or hedge something.

the betting line is a lot larger than the polls which are all within the margin of error.

from what i know the internal polls from the Romney camp think they are in deep trouble in Ohio. that might be why there is so much money bet on the democrats right now. it is entirely possible that the internal Romney poll in Ohio is correct and the republicans can still win this election with other states. i don't know the numbers from the other key states, they could easily be much closer than Ohio.

Man, either the rich 1%ers are betting against their white knight, or those downtrodden that Obama reaches have more discretionary income than they let on. :cool:

[lamboguy]

You act like Obama is at 1/9.

But anyway, the reason is because that's the narrative. Also, these markets are European and in the UK, right? These are not Americans betting primarily. There is NO dissent to the narrative over there -- Obama will win big end of discussion. At least in the US there is argument about it. Over there it is 100% certain.

You have to go back all the way to 1980 to find a similar situation. I don't know what the betting markets would have been, but in the polls Carter was up up up -- still up within a week of the election he was several points up and it was the biggest blowout of the modern era the other way. (But tellingly, when comparing likely voters to registered voters, the likely voters were 5 points less for Carter than registered voters which is exactly the kind of thing we'll see this time. And most of the credible polls we are seeing now are of registered voters -- we'll see them switch to likely over the next month.)

I can also tell you that the betting markets in 2000 at the beginning of October had Gore up about 65-35, but at the end of October it was almost exactly the reverse. Didn't Dave say something earlier like, "They can't be THAT wrong." Of course they can -- it is only the beginning of October. The election is a long way off -- probably nobody "serious" has bet on either side. If Obama is still up big in the markets 2 days before the election, you've got a good argument. But now? Means nothing. (Or more accurately, it is reflective of the media or whatever, but not of actual voters intentions.)

Like I said earlier, I think the people that will decide this election have never seen Romney. Haven't got a clue about him. So as far as I'm concerned, the election doesn't even START until the debate tomorrow. All that has preceded has just been entertainment for political junkies, but is of little consequence. As long as Romney can seem like a decent bloke that isn't completely clueless (doesn't matter if he is right, or tells the truth, or anything like that), then he wins in November, and probably big. But since this IS Romney we're talking about, that's a big if. I'm calling it after tomorrow though...i bet on Reagan in 1980, i had to lay $220-$100 on him when he was losing in the national polls.
i am only mentioning that because the national polls are very close right now, yet the betting line doesn't agree with the polls. the betting lines mean about 1000 times more than any public poll that anyone is going to print in a newspaper or broadcast over any television station.

the people that are laying over 4-1 on Obama don't seem to care what outcome the debates are going to bring. while Romney is not dead yet, he will be in case the betting line gets to 8-1.

[GameTheory]

i bet on Reagan in 1980, i had to lay $220-$100 on him when he was losing in the national polls. With whom did you bet in 1980, and at what point in the election?

As I said, there was a big swing in 2000 in the markets from Gore to Bush which is significant in two ways:

A) It shows that big swings are possible, so Obama's price now isn't necessarily Obama's price a month from now.

B) The markets were WRONG. Bush was still up big at the end. But the actual election was pretty much tied -- and actually Gore was the winner as a big underdog in those markets that were predicting the vote total rather than than actual person to ascend to the presidency. (After that election, I'd think they would all stick to the votes since the actual winner wasn't decided for some time. I'm not familiar with the European markets enough to know -- what are you actually betting on? Votes or electoral college winner?)

[lamboguy]

there is no question that prices change in anything. and also no question that it can change in this one. i have seen it many times in these elections. i watched Kerry go from a $140 underdog to a $250 favorite the day of the election and he still lost.

in this election there has always been an old saying that the Republican's have to win Ohio to win the election. i would say that there is no chance that he wins that state this time around either, but he can still win. the other states are very close, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada. he could possibly win those states by just performing average in these debates. i don't know what Romney's strategy is going to be for the next month, but i suspect he will place more emphasis on states other than Ohio.

when i bet elections back in the 70's and 80's i bet with illegal bookmakers in the united states that got their election lines from bookmakers in the united kingdom. of course today i don't do any betting with illegal outfits.

[horses4courses]

of course today i don't do any betting with illegal outfits.

I know that these days it doesn't seem like it, but if you're betting with greek.com, technically you are breaking the law.

[lamboguy]

I know that these days it doesn't seem like it, but if you're betting with greek.com, technically you are breaking the law.you are 100% correct. i don't bet with them either or any other offshore operation.

[Lefty]

If one lives in the U.S. that doesn't leave anyplace to bet an election, does it?

[bigmack]

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/USPresidentialElectionWinnerBettingOdds-PoliticsandElectionBetting.png

[lamboguy]

If one lives in the U.S. that doesn't leave anyplace to bet an election, does it?you can go overseas to London and bet whatever they take.

election betting in the united states has always been illegal because the government always thought that an election could easily fixed to win a bet.

there are plenty of people betting this election inside the US, most are either with their friends or at illegal venues.

make no mistake about it, there is plenty of money that is plunked down on the election worldwide.

[GameTheory]

You can bet small amounts at the Iowa Electronic Markets.

[Lefty]

I live in Vegas and lawfully, I can't place a bet outside of Nev

[lamboguy]

according to TVG, $8.5 million has been matched on this election over 4-1. remember this is with over a month to go untill the election. by the time the election finally goes off they will have way over $100 million wagered and that is only one place. there must be over 500 places in the world taking action on this election.

[lamboguy]

as of 8:45 p.m. EST, the greek.com has taken the election line off the boards

[Valuist]

Intrade numbers were 75% for Obama win yesterday.

Right now they are at 68%

[Valuist]

Intrade numbers were 75% for Obama win yesterday.

Right now they are at 68%

5 minutes later, its at 67%. Game is on.

[horses4courses]

Odds on Romney will drop after tonight.
Sportingbet and Paddy Power have him down to +3.50 and 3.00
It's 4am there, though. Big changes won't happen for hours.

[bigmack]

Odds on Romney will drop after tonight.
It's almost like you're a powerful soothsayer.

Keep up the good work. :D

[horses4courses]

It's almost like you're a powerful soothsayer.

Keep up the good work. :D

Very predictable, sir.
I don't like you very much, either.

[fast4522]

Hot damm,

The time is upon us, will Hcap be correct and Obozo lands the knockout punch? I just think if the guy's correct he should win something, because if not things are sure gonna get interesting round here!


2012 presidential election odds

Forget what odds are being offered, tonight Obama did not lay one glove on Romney, nor did what Hcap have to say come to pass.

I guess Obiden will have to save the day when he is up at bat next, maybe he will drop the fbomb or tell America how bad the middle class has done the last four years. With a Vice President like that perhaps the President might sneak a bet on Romney.

Stay tuned for more 2012 presidential election odds

[BetHorses!]

Wait til they talk foreign policy...

[Tom]

Rudy is schooling Rachael now.
She is an idiot.

There is a noticable scent of urine coming out of MSNBC studios.....very strong.

they are all losing it now...this idiot Chris something or other......what a fool!
Rudy just put him in his place. The kid is about to cry. Rudy is killing this moron! Now they are trying to shut him up....Rachael and Chris are are desperate and in a battle of witts, unarmed.

[Tom]

Mathews is CRYING on the air!!!!!
11:15pm.....CRYING!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[fast4522]

It is not urine, its old drool that stinks from running around knocking each others cups over.

[redshift1]

Romney the clear winner tonight, Obama needs to improve his demeanor, I'm surprised his non-verbal behavior was a problem but it was and it detracted from his responses. Round one to Romney.

.

[PaceAdvantage]

Mathews is CRYING on the air!!!!!
11:15pm.....CRYING!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:Seriously? I stopped watching my local news around 11:10 and don't really watch ANY cable news these days...

If he really did start crying, I can't wait for someone to post a clip.

[bigmack]

Seriously? I stopped watching my local news around 11:10 and don't really watch ANY cable news these days...

If he really did start crying, I can't wait for someone to post a clip.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2012/10/03/chris_matthews_has_an_epic_meltdown_after_obama_lo ses_debate

[ArlJim78]

prediction: sometime shortly after Nov 6th Chris Matthews takes a leave of absence citing non specific health issues or "exhaustion"

[DRIVEWAY]

Watching Chris Matthews makes you think about goverment controled media.

In Russia(USSR) the government controlled the media. In this country the media was free to say what they pleased.

However, eventually the media in this country(USA) figured out how to control who gets elected and indirectly control government.

Tonight Chris Matthews saw all that influence change. He cried.

Yes America we are free again.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, once again, I must disagree with video. Forgetting what Matthews was actually saying, which was pretty appalling (I'm not quite sure even the OPINION SHOWS on FOX are this biased...EVER...), he didn't appear to me to come even close to crying. He just seemed frustrated, exasperated and fed up...

The quintessential "angry white man" as someone likes to call THIS place... :lol:

[GameTheory]

Well, once again, I must disagree with video. Forgetting what Matthews was actually saying, which was pretty appalling (I'm not quite sure even the OPINION SHOWS on FOX are this biased...EVER...), he didn't appear to me to come even close to crying. He just seemed frustrated, exasperated and fed up...Well, MSNBC now openly advertises itself as a liberal network (with the slogan "Lean Forward") and including commercials with Chris Matthews extolling the virtues of liberalism and how the fight must go on, so everything on the network and certainly out of Chris should be considered as openly and unabashedly liberal liberal liberal. So he's not a newsman, he's the left Hannity...

[Stillriledup]

2012 presidential election odds

Forget what odds are being offered, tonight Obama did not lay one glove on Romney, nor did what Hcap have to say come to pass.

I guess Obiden will have to save the day when he is up at bat next, maybe he will drop the fbomb or tell America how bad the middle class has done the last four years. With a Vice President like that perhaps the President might sneak a bet on Romney.

Stay tuned for more 2012 presidential election odds

Why would Obama have to lay a glove on Romney? Isnt it Romney who needs to lay a glove on Obama? Its kind of like a boxer who has a 'big lead' on the cards heading into the final round...the underdog knows he needs a K.O. to win, Obama is just going into "Rope a dope' fashion and hoping to not get KO'd.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...(with the slogan "Lean Forward") and including commercials with Chris Matthews extolling the virtues of liberalism and how the fight must go on...

The party of personal freedom, as he so eloquently explains... and then goes on to be truthful and expand that those personal freedoms include only those reserved for sects within America, and the personal freedoms granted Americans as a whole continue to be fair game for annihilation.

[fast4522]

Stillriledup, sometimes you have to be real, Obama running on his record is like walking the plank. Fast forward to the third debate, can't you hear Romney now saying, "come on Mr President wouldn't you prefer being at home in Chicago with your racist buddy Rev. Jeremiah Wright"?.

No, last night was not the slam dunk, but there is enough material available for Mitt Romney to seal the deal.

[Tom]

Well, MSNBC now openly advertises itself as a liberal network (with the slogan "Lean Forward") and including commercials with Chris Matthews extolling the virtues of liberalism and how the fight must go on, so everything on the network and certainly out of Chris should be considered as openly and unabashedly liberal liberal liberal. So he's not a newsman, he's the left Hannity...

Better take back those press credentials.

[lamboguy]

as of noon October 3, thegreek.com does not have a betting line on the boards yet. when they do post one, i smell a huge change in price!

[bigmack]

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/USPresidentialElectionWinnerBettingOdds-PoliticsandElectionBetting.png
What difference a debate makes.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/USPresidentialElectionWinnerBettingOdds-PoliticsandElectionBetting-2.png

[lamboguy]

as of 5:oo p.m. EST thegreek.com has not put the betting lines back up on the board for this election

[GameTheory]

as of 5:oo p.m. EST thegreek.com has not put the betting lines back up on the board for this electionPinnacle currently has Dem -304, Rep +268.

[horses4courses]

Pinnacle currently has Dem -304, Rep +268.

Where are you girls gonna get 268% on your money? The market?
Send it in while it's still there....you know your boy will be chalk by Nov 6th.

[lamboguy]

as of 11:45 a.m. EST thegreek.com has not put their election line back up

i understand that there are others that have a line up, but i am not looking at them because i know thegreek.com takes $50,000 on election wagers and will pay you if you win.

[Stillriledup]

Maybe Obama 'tanked' the first debate so he can unload on himself and crush the windows!
:D

I actually like the idea that Obama didnt 'peak' in his first debate, maybe he's saving the best for last and he will come on strong as the month wears on. Its a LONG way away from the actual election, much can happen.

Mitt 'peaked' in the first go around....people will be expecting him to be better next time and he might come crashing back to earth a bit , now, the expectations are high, its going to be hard for Mittens to duplicate that performance.

[Dave Schwartz]

I actually like the idea that Obama didnt 'peak' in his first debate...

You are the master of the understatement.

:lol:

[boxcar]

I actually like the idea that Obama didnt 'peak' in his first debate, maybe he's saving the best for last and he will come on strong as the month wears on. Its a LONG way away from the actual election, much can happen.

Peak with what? That's why they're called empty suits.

Boxcar

[Tom]

So Obama stiffed himself to build up the odds?

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com has put their election price back up. the democrats are now down to -$420-$100 favorite.

not that much of a move for what i expected. but then again the debate lasted only about an hour and a half. there are still 3 more debates left and enough time for the underdog to make up ground.

[bigmack]

Rasmussen from yessaday has MR up by two in Flahrida & Virgini. Down by 1 in OH.

The Final Mo (momentum) hath begun.

[lamboguy]

Rasmussen from yessaday has MR up by two in Flahrida & Virgini. Down by 1 in OH.

The Final Mo (momentum) hath begun.
its to bad that Rasmussen doesn't take any bets

[lamboguy]

What in the WORLD does that mean?

It's (too) bad
you would have yourself a little arbitrage going.

did you already bet the democrat in this race?

[johnhannibalsmith]

you would have yourself a little arbitrage going.

did you already bet the democrat in this race?

I think he bet lots of democrats on this race. And took piss poor odds doing it too. :D

[lamboguy]

I think he bet lots of democrats on this race. And took piss poor odds doing it too. :Di bet on Romney too, but i did it by purchasing gold. i don't think i am going to lose no matter who gets elected president though.

[bigmack]

I think he bet lots of democrats on this race. And took piss poor odds doing it too. :D
Wrongo, Longo.

I dint see any Dem's on the ballot. I see MR as an R. 'Gare' as a Libertarian. And BO as a COMMUNIST! n That's right, a PINKO. (Gawd, I love to use pinko)

With the proceeds of me winnings on this escapade, I'm gassin' up the Winnie(Bago) and pointing it towards Zona. Ari-zona.

Start that tour, hauling co-ed cellists, flautists, and ESPECIALLY them clarinetists from regional symphony orchestras. Give 'em a little razzle dazzle in an otherwise humdrum life.

Pack your bags and put in a couple extra teeth. We're goin' on a road trip.

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_leaybuOtBO1qe0eclo1_r5_500.gif

[johnhannibalsmith]

Wrongo, Longo.

I dint see any Dem's on the ballot. I see MR as an R. ...

Nice use of the animated gif... laf... but you fail to viddy or pony my sarky - that your oomny ways let you offer your pretty polly to many a democrat at a price that is prestoopnik in its generosity. Even money on a chelloveck that is trading at four times that in the most choodessny of times? How'd you dream up that chepooka?

When that Bago is in rome...

[OTM Al]

Current Iowa Electronic Market places Obama at 72% and Romney at 28% to win. Still the best "poll" out there.

[GameTheory]

Current Iowa Electronic Market places Obama at 72% and Romney at 28% to win. Still the best "poll" out there.Yeah, Obama went from 77 to 69 then bounced a bit back up. Can he break through to a new bottom when it trends down again?

[lamboguy]

new line on this election from thegreek.com the democrats have dropped to -$340-$100. that is the biggest drop i have seen since i have been following this election. it looks like the republican bettors best price is now in the rear view mirror.

[lamboguy]

new election line from thegreek.com: the democrats are now -$325-$100

[redshift1]

new election line from thegreek.com: the democrats are now -$325-$100


At 538, Nate Silver is predicting more gains for Romney as some polls use a 5-7 day rolling model and the full impact of Wednesday's debate is yet to be counted.

Interesting to see how the VP debate affects the polls as both candidates are prone to the occasional gaffe.

.

[bigmack]

Interesting to see how the VP debate affects the polls as both candidates are prone to the occasional gaffe.

2 things. JoeyB doles out gaffes WAY too frequently to be considered 'occasional' and Ryan doesn't render gaffes.

Should be a laugh riot. JB, a Senator since 19 seventy, frickin 3.

Time to do something else now, Joey.

Hairclub for Men spokesman?

[ElKabong]

2 things. JoeyB doles out gaffes WAY too frequently to be considered 'occasional' and Ryan doesn't render gaffes.

Should be a laugh riot. JB, a Senator since 19 seventy, frickin 3.

Time to do something else now, Joey.

Hairclub for Men spokesman?

Joey may not be as bad in debate as he is in freestyle. Put him in front of a room of dems, and he's a gaffe machine. When he's on stage debating he reels it in a bit.

It's a no-win for Joey b/c people know him by now-- We all know him for a buffoon, and it's hard to look at him in any other way. He's a known quantity. Best he can do is a tie (which he is capable of), and that's what the Obama folks no doubt hope for.

But I doubt we'll see him run out race-baiting comments, or any "gird your loins" comments.

If Ryan does wipe his ass off with Joey on the economy, the momentum is going to be hard to stop. Pressure's on Joey Thursday nite

[johnhannibalsmith]

2 things. JoeyB doles out gaffes WAY too frequently to be considered 'occasional' and Ryan doesn't render gaffes.

Should be a laugh riot. JB, a Senator since 19 seventy, frickin 3.

Time to do something else now, Joey.

Hairclub for Men spokesman?

I'm going out on a limb to say that the VP debate is perceived as a huge Biden victory. Ryan plays the role of Obama, defending his policy, while Biden just attacks non-stop like a rabid dog. That being prone to gaffes has become so acceptable for Biden, that he can completely ignore every inclination towards sensibility and put on a 90 minute attack ad with all the bluster, stereotypes, and brutal language he can come with. In other words, I have a feeling the Democrats will be high-fiving after that debate.

[Lefty]

I dunno... Joe will have the B.S but Ryan will be loaded with facts and figures.
I'm sure Pelosi, Cutter and Mosty have already got their statements of a Biden win, ready.

[bigmack]

he can completely ignore every inclination towards sensibility and put on a 90 minute attack ad with all the bluster, stereotypes, and brutal language he can come with.
Have you gone completely crackers? There ain't no way Joey rolls in throwing bellicose bullets at PaulieR.

At the mirthful age of 69, packed with hair plugs, what in the world is JB going to get combative with the P90X pumpin', PR?

Pushing Granny off a cliff? Ryan will HAVE HIS LUNCH with numbers. Paulie knows his shite.

The only possible approach for Joey is charm.

That said, I don't put much stock in this clambake, as I don't think Paul is going to be as knifelike as MR was 'gainst BO.

He's too Appleton, WI. They don't do that there.

http://www.punditmom.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Paul-Ryan-family.jpg

[johnhannibalsmith]

Mark my words... Joe comes out with all the finesse of Butterbean, it goes fourteen rounds, punches are landed, but nobody knows who is landing them or when, and the Korean judges give it to Joe by TKO without even a knockdown.

[lamboguy]

new election line from thegreek.com: the democrats are now -$300-$100

[lamboguy]

new election line from thegreek.com: the democrats are now -$270-$100.


this line seems to be dropping faster than it was going up. this is the third move down within the last 24 hours, and the down moves seem to be picking up steam.

[lamboguy]

At 538, Nate Silver is predicting more gains for Romney as some polls use a 5-7 day rolling model and the full impact of Wednesday's debate is yet to be counted.

Interesting to see how the VP debate affects the polls as both candidates are prone to the occasional gaffe.

.i don't think the vice presidential debate can move any line in this election, but i am sure it will be entertaining.

i would put the over under on the number of viewer's @ 50 million. that would probably shatter any other vice presidential viewer records.

[RaceBookJoe]

new election line from thegreek.com: the democrats are now -$270-$100.


this line seems to be dropping faster than it was going up. this is the third move down within the last 24 hours, and the down moves seem to be picking up steam.

http://news.yahoo.com/pew-romney-leads-4-post-debate-survey-200329539--politics.html

Obama was up by 8 after the conventions.

[bigmack]

Mark my words... Joe comes out with all the finesse of Butterbean, it goes fourteen rounds, punches are landed, but nobody knows who is landing them or when, and the Korean judges give it to Joe by TKO without even a knockdown.
'Member what I said about Ryan not having knifelife senses? Scratch that.

Odd little interView taday with a local nerd reporter in the MotorCity.

1n-pjl0UHaE

[johnhannibalsmith]

'Member what I said about Ryan not having knifelife senses? Scratch that.

Odd little interView taday with a local nerd reporter in the MotorCity.

...

The guy, while being a total douche, at least finally segued in the direction of something relevant - albeit in a ridiculous way - and Ryan and his crew just flee? The guy was doing his best to make himself look like a complete idiot and somehow Ryan comes off looking like he's avoiding the tax cut question. Biden's going to have him in tears if he wigs out over someone only mostly off the reservation.

[menifee]

i don't think the vice presidential debate can move any line in this election, but i am sure it will be entertaining.

i would put the over under on the number of viewer's @ 50 million. that would probably shatter any other vice presidential viewer records.


2008 vice presidential debate had nearly 69.9 million viewers. One of the most watched debates ever. I don't think it was Biden drawing them in. Regardless of what you think of Palin, she was really good for ratings.

[PaceAdvantage]

'Member what I said about Ryan not having knifelife senses? Scratch that.

Odd little interView taday with a local nerd reporter in the MotorCity.Nothing odd about it. It's the classic case of going full bore pricko on anyone with an (R) next to their names, while throwing nothing but softball pillows at Obama and fellow (D)bags...

That's part of the reason why Obama came up so flaccid in the debate...he's so used to being coddled like an infant child-king...

It's so silly at this point...even the most obtuse among us is starting to see the media for what it is...

[bigmack]

It's so silly at this point...even the most obtuse among us is starting to see the media for what it is...
Years ago a business colleague in advertising said - Have you ever encountered so many people making gobs of dough in a profession where they have NO IDEA what they're doing? We likened it to doctors working AS doctors but not really being qualified.

This press. This MEDIA. Stone cold shot out trucks. Tools. Peddlers.

I haven't the slightest idea how they look in the mirror and call themselves professional journalists.

It's like everything else in this country of late. All show.

Time for substance to reign over style for a beautiful 8 years, like we just saw in the debate.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...I haven't the slightest idea how they look in the mirror and call themselves professional journalists.
...

The guy in the clip is a hack tool. No doubt about it. But seriously...

Ryan stepped in it there and then panicked. I'm not sure how you get "knifelike" senses, unless you mean he realizes that he doesn't want to slit his throat completely.

The guy starts on gun laws. Dumb. Ryan insists the problem is a "crime problem". The guy might suggest we need more laws? (Ryan realizes he's getting caught in a web now, small govt v big govt) So we blow right into having enough laws, but that we need more enforcement...

Ryan smoothly walks away from the issue of enforcing the laws midsentence and offers a revised answers with an apolitical stance about character, opportunity, and churches as the solution.

The douchey reporter then deadpans "we do all that by cutting taxes?"

I can see why he got pissed - he was walking into a trap - but it's one that he's going to walk into again and again. The reporter here had an agenda and was VERY inolequent in how he handled it and it mitigated Ryan's sheepish reaction.

But still, if you're going up against a hack like that and you declare that the crime problem is in part due to a lack of enforcement and the stereotype of you is that you want to slash the public sector and put constraints on funding - you should have a snappy response for how cutting taxes and reducing the scope and role of government will help meet your objective of "better enforcement". If you then come with theories about solving crime through opportunity and character - you ought to have a ready-made reply that explains the fallacy that big, interventionist government somehow creates more opportunity and builds character.

He just left. You can shit on the guy doing the interview for obvious reasons - but had he been just a little more tactful and professional - there'd really be no reason to get on him, because his line of reasoning (at least as I perceive what he was thinking and the direction he was heading) was something that is bound to come up over and over again. You got to have a better answer for those questions than "adios."

[NJ Stinks]

It's so silly at this point...even the most obtuse among us is starting to see the media for what it is...

Even if we don't see it, you keep telling us the boogyman is out there. Worse yet, you beat this drum every day.

No doubt if Romney loses we'll be hearing this for another 4 years. :sleeping:

[Stillriledup]

Years ago a business colleague in advertising said - Have you ever encountered so many people making gobs of dough in a profession where they have NO IDEA what they're doing? We likened it to doctors working AS doctors but not really being qualified.

This press. This MEDIA. Stone cold shot out trucks. Tools. Peddlers.

I haven't the slightest idea how they look in the mirror and call themselves professional journalists.

It's like everything else in this country of late. All show.

Time for substance to reign over style for a beautiful 8 years, like we just saw in the debate.

head coaches in pro sports fit this bill. NFL coaches running teams in a BILLION dollar league have no idea when to go for 2 pts, when to NOT ice the kicker, when to challenge a play, when to kick the PAT and so on and so forth....there are SO many examples of guys who appear to have a 5th grade education and have no clue on game management that its remarkable that a billion dollar team is employing them to make important decisions.

[Tom]

Iran has the right idea....we have Meet the Press, they have BEAT the Press.

Most "reporters" are nothing but bottom feeders looking to make themselves appear smarter than they really are. Most do not have the intelligence of their ballpoint pens.

[ezpace]

http://www.dailyimpact.net/2012/10/09/choosing-a-new-captain-for-the-titanic/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailyimpact%2FGIfx+%28The+Dai ly+Impact%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

[GameTheory]

Gallup switched to the likely voter model this morning for its tracking poll (from just registered voters). As predicted, this swings even more towards Romney, who is now UP +2 nationally. And history tells us we can probably credit him with an additional 2 points, but we'll see.

The old model for the same 7 day period shows Obama still up by +3, although they show that post-debate polling was tied even on the registered voter model.

We always have to remember that when people talk about historical accuracy of polls and betting markets, it is always the FINAL numbers right before the election they are talking about. But people always discuss these numbers from a month and farther out as if they are the same thing, but they are not. Accuracy of a poll or current odds in a betting market a month from an election is not measurable -- it has no meaning because there is no voting now and the "pressure of reality" of the actual impeding action of voting is not upon us.

[acorn54]

as far as the "journalist" are concerned, they are, first and foremost in it for a career. they will not do anything that is a career breaker. years ago reporters took it as a badge of honor to be muckrackers and investigative reporters, challenging the system. those days are gone. now all we have is two bit opportunists looking to get all they can for themselves.

[ArlJim78]

and that likely voter Gallup poll is Oct 2-8 time frame, so there is still some pre debate data in it. I think I've read before that no incumbent has won with under 50% in that survey. Obama currently at 47%.

Of course this is all too late for Romney because as we've been advised on here the election is over because of what intrade and the greek.com or whatever has been telling us for the last 3 months. those weren't simply early odds based on limited data, no we've been told that they are hard and fast predictions of the most accurate variety.

[Valuist]

Obama's Intrade number now down to 58.6%. Don't think it has ever been that low.

[lamboguy]

new election odds from thegreek.com: the democrats are now -$250-$100.

[PaceAdvantage]

Even if we don't see it, you keep telling us the boogyman is out there. Worse yet, you beat this drum every day.

No doubt if Romney loses we'll be hearing this for another 4 years. :sleeping:Show me the last time someone "went after" Obama like that, and isn't named O'Reily...any member of CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC ever push at the prez or VP Biden like we just saw in that clip?

No.

But it will happen every chance they get with either Romney or Ryan.

[ArlJim78]

this president has never been asked a tough question from our media. the Univison interview was more pointed and challenging than anything in domestic media.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Show me the last time someone "went after" Obama like that, and isn't named O'Reily.....

IVGIGXE1rAI

edited: I see ArlJim was posting what I was thinking while I was searching... :D

[NJ Stinks]

You guys have conveniently short memories. Obama was on 60 minutes two weeks ago. Here's are some questions he was asked by Kroft. (If you want to read Obama's full responses, the link is at the end of this post.)


1. KROFT (on camera): Mr. President, you were elected four years ago, promising hope and change for the better. Your opponent argues that you have achieved neither. Country has rarely been so divided politically. And people are afraid for their jobs. I -- I know you know that. People are fearful about the future for the families. How do you respond to that?


2. KROFT: On the campaign trail, Governor Romney has been portraying you as a -- a nice guy who doesn't have a clue...

OBAMA: Mm-hm.

KROFT: ... about the economy...

OBAMA: Right.

KROFT: ... or how the country works. That private enterprises -- the engine of growth in this -- in this country. And that's what create jobs, not big government.

OBAMA: Yeah.

KROFT: And that you're crushing economic freedom with taxes, regulations, and high-cost health care.

KROFT: You've tried things that -- that haven't worked. I mean the jobs plan, the jobs bill -- you haven't been able to get it through Congress.
OBAMA: Well, Steve...

KROFT: I mean, isn't that some of your responsibility?


3. KROFT: How are you going to get the Republicans to agree to a tax increase for the top two percent? You've been trying for a year. You haven't been able to do it. And you've got a majority of -- of -- of Republicans in Congress, including Governor Romney, who has signed a pledge never to increase taxes under any circumstances.
OBAMA: Yeah, well, we...

KROFT: How are you going to get them to change their minds and make this deal?


4. KROFT: We still have the housing crisis. The banks got bailed out. The homeowners didn't. That was one of the decisions that you made. Very few homeowners have gotten mortgage relief. And your efforts to get the banks and the mortgage companies to renegotiate loans and modify terms have been underwhelming, to say the least. What happened?


5. [Kroft] on camera): How much pressure have you been getting from Prime Minister Netanyahu to make up your mind to use military force in Iran?
OBAMA: Well, look, I have conversations with Prime Minister Netanyahu all the time. And I understand and share Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon because it would threaten us, it would threaten Israel and it would threaten the world and kick off a nuclear arms race.

KROFT: You're -- you're saying you don't feel any pressure from Prime Minister Netanyahu in the middle of a campaign to try and get you to change your policy and draw a line in the sand? You don't feel any pressure?


6. KROFT: Have recent events in the Middle East given you any pause about your support for the governments that have come to power following the Arab Spring?


7. KROFT: The national debt has gone up sixty percent in -- in the four years that you've been in office. [Obama responds.]


8. KROFT: Since the Benghazi tragedy, your opponent has attacked you as being weak on national defense and weak on foreign policy. He says you need to be more aggressive in Iran, haven't done enough to support the revolt in Syria, and that our friends don't know where we stand, and our enemies think we're weak. [Obama responds.]



Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/24/transcript-obama-on-60-minutes/#ixzz28pv8Wywx

[GameTheory]

Obama's Intrade number now down to 58.6%. Don't think it has ever been that low.Still don't think it has -- where'd you get that? Currently at 61.8%...

[bigmack]

Even if we don't see it, you keep telling us the boogyman is out there. Worse yet, you beat this drum every day.

No doubt if Romney loses we'll be hearing this for another 4 years.
Lest we forget a guy, not unlike YOU, that continually whines about the bias @ Fox, but yet, you watch it all the time and even used a Fox link to make your point. (That's because NO main stream outlet covered the tough questioning by Telemundoid)

Your incessant calling out of Fox on their bias is like saying "Run, there's a chihuahua in the room", when there's a HUGE great dane dwarfing said chihuahua.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_tIrBnLcWBCE/TEBqKkXaRkI/AAAAAAAAADk/k3XksPLATPA/s320/big-and-small-dog.jpg

[NJ Stinks]

Lest we forget a guy, not unlike YOU, that continually whines about the bias @ Fox, but yet, you watch it all the time and even used a Fox link to make your point. (That's because NO main stream outlet covered the tough questioning by Telemundoid)



Did you even see my post #434? That was CBS' 60 Minutes.

I whine about FOX about once a month if that. PA and his legion of cohorts whine about MSM almost every day here.

[bigmack]

Did you even see my post #434? That was CBS' 60 Minutes.

I whine about FOX about once a month if that. PA and his legion of cohorts whine about MSM almost every day here.
Yeah, 60 Minutes transcription from FOX. :rolleyes:

What don't you get about MASSIVE ONE-WAY BIAS and one cable outlet that goes another direction?

Once a month/almost every day, seems apropos given the HUGE difference in volume.

But you knew that. Nice try though. :ThmbUp:

[NJ Stinks]

Yeah, 60 Minutes transcription from FOX. :rolleyes:

What don't you get about MASSIVE ONE-WAY BIAS and one cable outlet that goes another direction?

Once a month/almost every day, seems apropos given the HUGE difference in volume.

But you knew that. Nice try though. :ThmbUp:

Somehow I knew you wouldn't agree with me. :)

(I chose FOX because you only believe it if FOX says it! :jump: )

[pandy]

I'd never thought I'd say this but it looks like Pennslyvania is in play, Obama up by only 6 points. This is looking more and more like a Romney landslide.

[NJ Stinks]

I'd never thought I'd say this but it looks like Pennslyvania is in play, Obama up by only 6 points. This is looking more and more like a Romney landslide.

Pandy, you live in PA and predict PA is in play?

Does that mean Romney is going to start advertising on TV in PA? :confused:

[pandy]

I think there will be TV ads. Superpacs are advertising but so far the regular ads are not back, but the turnout for Romney is going to be huge in the suburbs and rural PA. Lots of former coal workers here and a strong Tea Party. Of course he'll have to overcome Philly area. Most of the counties will vote for Romney but Philadelphia and suburbs have a big population. However, Pa. does have a Republican Governor now, so I think that Romney has a good chance of winning the 20 electoral votes here.

The media is totally overlooking the Tea Party factor, just as they did in the mid term elections. The Tea Party is a major force in these elections. I don't see how you can be a serious political journalist or reporter without covering it. If I ran a polling company I would have a separate poll indicating how the Tea Party was likely to affect the final vote in each state. These pollsters are using insufficient data.

[PaceAdvantage]

You guys have conveniently short memories. Obama was on 60 minutes two weeks ago. Here's are some questions he was asked by Kroft. (If you want to read Obama's full responses, the link is at the end of this post.)


1. KROFT (on camera): Mr. President, you were elected four years ago, promising hope and change for the better. Your opponent argues that you have achieved neither. Country has rarely been so divided politically. And people are afraid for their jobs. I -- I know you know that. People are fearful about the future for the families. How do you respond to that?


2. KROFT: On the campaign trail, Governor Romney has been portraying you as a -- a nice guy who doesn't have a clue...

OBAMA: Mm-hm.

KROFT: ... about the economy...

OBAMA: Right.

KROFT: ... or how the country works. That private enterprises -- the engine of growth in this -- in this country. And that's what create jobs, not big government.

OBAMA: Yeah.

KROFT: And that you're crushing economic freedom with taxes, regulations, and high-cost health care.

KROFT: You've tried things that -- that haven't worked. I mean the jobs plan, the jobs bill -- you haven't been able to get it through Congress.
OBAMA: Well, Steve...

KROFT: I mean, isn't that some of your responsibility?


3. KROFT: How are you going to get the Republicans to agree to a tax increase for the top two percent? You've been trying for a year. You haven't been able to do it. And you've got a majority of -- of -- of Republicans in Congress, including Governor Romney, who has signed a pledge never to increase taxes under any circumstances.
OBAMA: Yeah, well, we...

KROFT: How are you going to get them to change their minds and make this deal?


4. KROFT: We still have the housing crisis. The banks got bailed out. The homeowners didn't. That was one of the decisions that you made. Very few homeowners have gotten mortgage relief. And your efforts to get the banks and the mortgage companies to renegotiate loans and modify terms have been underwhelming, to say the least. What happened?


5. [Kroft] on camera): How much pressure have you been getting from Prime Minister Netanyahu to make up your mind to use military force in Iran?
OBAMA: Well, look, I have conversations with Prime Minister Netanyahu all the time. And I understand and share Prime Minister Netanyahu's insistence that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon because it would threaten us, it would threaten Israel and it would threaten the world and kick off a nuclear arms race.

KROFT: You're -- you're saying you don't feel any pressure from Prime Minister Netanyahu in the middle of a campaign to try and get you to change your policy and draw a line in the sand? You don't feel any pressure?


6. KROFT: Have recent events in the Middle East given you any pause about your support for the governments that have come to power following the Arab Spring?


7. KROFT: The national debt has gone up sixty percent in -- in the four years that you've been in office. [Obama responds.]


8. KROFT: Since the Benghazi tragedy, your opponent has attacked you as being weak on national defense and weak on foreign policy. He says you need to be more aggressive in Iran, haven't done enough to support the revolt in Syria, and that our friends don't know where we stand, and our enemies think we're weak. [Obama responds.]



Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/24/transcript-obama-on-60-minutes/#ixzz28pv8WywxYes, real toughies there...basically, all Kroft did was regurgitate Team Romney's criticisms of the President...nothing he hasn't heard before...no beating over the head...no browbeating...kid gloves...

Underwhelmed I am by your example.

"I mean, isn't that some of your responsibility?"

Oooooooooooooooooooo Myyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy....that was rough! :lol:

[RaceBookJoe]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/09/libya-consulate-attack-protests_n_1953057.html?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D217866

Might be worth an odds drop

[horses4courses]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/09/libya-consulate-attack-protests_n_1953057.html?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D217866

Might be worth an odds drop

The odds are dropping like a rock into the ocean.
Why should this add to the momentum?

The tragic events in Benghazi are just another example of GOP exploitation.
Hindsight is so powerful when things go wrong.
Needless to say, had there been a Republican president in office in such a situation, this never would have occurred. :rolleyes:
Of course, that's possible. Especially if that GOP president had already deployed ground forces into North Africa - just to nuture some colonization.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...The tragic events in Benghazi are just another example of GOP exploitation.
Hindsight is so powerful when things go wrong.
Needless to say, had there been a Republican president in office in such a situation, this never would have occurred. :rolleyes:
...

Let's concede this point for the sake of argument.

Do you think that Republicans would have gotten a pass on it?

Do you think that it would take four weeks for the media to even begin to ask the same questions that have been asked for weeks by some?

Do you think that Democrats would have turned the other cheek, employing your "shit happens" perspective on what happened?

Of course not. Of course not. Of course not. I'll retract that concession used to get from point A to point C.

[horses4courses]

Let's concede this point for the sake of argument.

Do you think that Republicans would have gotten a pass on it?

Do you think that it would take four weeks for the media to even begin to ask the same questions that have been asked for weeks by some?

Do you think that Democrats would have turned the other cheek, employing your "shit happens" perspective on what happened?

Of course not. Of course not. Of course not. I'll retract that concession used to get from point A to point C.

Can't argue with you there....it's called "playing the game".
Anyone with half a brain should see it for what it's worth, though.

[ArlJim78]

no it wouldn't have happened under any competent administration Republican or Democrat that is for sure. the negligence of this bunch is overwhelming, the signs were all there, the intelligence, the requests for security, the 9/11 date, etc. Even the ambassador himself requested help during the attack! DECLINED, too risky. and then the coverup afterwards and non chalant attitude from the president. appalling.

[bigmack]

The tragic events in Benghazi are just another example of GOP exploitation.
What is it that is being "exploited" - Total incompetence?

Your brain isn't coming up with these inane conclusions; your bitterness is.

[RaceBookJoe]

The odds are dropping like a rock into the ocean.
Why should this add to the momentum?

The tragic events in Benghazi are just another example of GOP exploitation.
Hindsight is so powerful when things go wrong.
Needless to say, had there been a Republican president in office in such a situation, this never would have occurred. :rolleyes:
Of course, that's possible. Especially if that GOP president had already deployed ground forces into North Africa - just to nuture some colonization.

You do play horses right?? Despite your ramblings, the fact is that this administration lied, spent money to make an apology despite knowing they lied, and now its finally coming out. Lets see if this topic comes up in one of the coming debates..should be a hoot.

[lamboguy]

new line on the election from thegreek.com: the demorats are now -$230-$100.

this line is now down $250 from the top

i wonder if this line will be off the boards right before this evenings vice presidential debate.

any good bettor could have made a fortune in this election already with all these price swings. i told everyone here to take the odds right before the first debate. you could have turned your bet into a lock winner no matter which guy wins the election. if Obama bombs again the price could be republicans -$300-$100.

[ceejay]

any good bettor could have made a fortune in this election already with all these price swings. i told everyone here to take the odds right before the first debate. you could have turned your bet into a lock winner no matter which guy wins the election. if Obama bombs again the price could be republicans -$300-$100.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/oct-10-is-romney-leading-right-now/#more-35856
Silver is making Romney about 2:1 today. That is after topping out at about 6:1. His "chance of winning" chart looks like a "broken" stock chart.

[Dave Schwartz]

Iowa Prediction Markets have him at 63.2 as of 7:30am. That's less than 9/5!

Maybe we've got a chance!

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

[lamboguy]

as of 6:45 EST thegreek.com has taken this election line off the boards

[GameTheory]

Iowa Prediction Markets have him at 63.2 as of 7:30am. That's less than 9/5!

Maybe we've got a chance!

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.htmlAnd last week he was at 77! Romney was at 23! They've been as close as 60-40 on the Iowa market in the last few days. Of course those are tradeable contracts so they go up and down as people take profits, but like I said how much bigger could the swing be in a single week? It has been downright astounding. So has Romney peaked or is he just getting started?

[pandy]

The polls are odd because when one guy has a big lead it in the summer it never lasts. In this case most Americans didn't really know Romney and were swayed by the ridiculous tv ads, but now that they get to learn more about him and see him speak unedited the gap naturally narrows. But in recent years the polls have been less accurate. The polls did not predict that the Republicans would take 63 seats two years ago, and the polls were also off in the governor races in Jersey, Virginia, Wisconsin, and of course Scott Brown was not supposed to take the Kennedy seat in Mass.

Realclearpolitics.com just moved Pennslyvania and two other states from lean Obama to toss-up.

[Dave Schwartz]

And last week he was at 77! Romney was at 23! They've been as close as 60-40 on the Iowa market in the last few days. Of course those are tradeable contracts so they go up and down as people take profits, but like I said how much bigger could the swing be in a single week? It has been downright astounding. So has Romney peaked or is he just getting started?

One can only hope.

[lamboguy]

as of 2:30 p.m. EST, thegreek.com has not put their election line back up on the board.

[GameTheory]

as of 2:30 p.m. EST, thegreek.com has not put their election line back up on the board.Pinnacle is at -238. Intrade went up a point for Obama, then back down to 61.5 which is pretty much where it has been for days, plus or minus a half point or so. I wonder if there will be continued movement until next debate. If the momentum keeps up over the weekend, Romney will be winning by Tuesday...

[lamboguy]

Pinnacle is at -238. Intrade went up a point for Obama, then back down to 61.5 which is pretty much where it has been for days, plus or minus a half point or so. I wonder if there will be continued movement until next debate. If the momentum keeps up over the weekend, Romney will be winning by Tuesday...i am going to be honest with you, to me it doesn't matter what a poll or any other offshore bookmaker puts up. i only pay attention to thegreek.com because they are accepting $50,000 wagers. the other places don't book that high, and the polls don't book at all. don't let those other guys mislead you.

[bigmack]

don't let those other guys mislead you.
You've been so far off the range on prognosticating how this race is going, via thegreek.com, your posts concerning the matter have zero value.

[lamboguy]

You've been so far off the range on prognosticating how this race is going, via thegreek.com, your posts concerning the matter have zero value.
i have not prognosticate one blessed thing about who the winner is. i only said that it would be a good wager to bet on the republicans before the first debate.

i am sure you are much smarter than myself. i am sure you bet your house on the democrat -$170 and bet back the republican +$380. unfortunately for myself i understand that i am not as smart as you are and will never be in your league.

[bigmack]

I find your ABSOLUTE DEVOTION to thegreek.com laughable. But then there are no shortage of people that go by lines without a clue of reality.

[so.cal.fan]

http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/willis-report/blog/2012/10/11/computer-predicts-election

[lamboguy]

i'd like to bet the odds come down to under 3-1 before the election.
check this post out

[lamboguy]

election line back up on the board at thegreek.com: the democrats are now -$230-$100.

no change from prior to vice presidential debate!

no winners or losers to that debate as advertised

[GameTheory]

i am going to be honest with you, to me it doesn't matter what a poll or any other offshore bookmaker puts up. i only pay attention to thegreek.com because they are accepting $50,000 wagers. the other places don't book that high, and the polls don't book at all. don't let those other guys mislead you.They all track together. I don't think you'll find any book with too much daylight between any other, and if you do you'll see that gap close quickly. Pinnacle will take different amounts for different people (10k at the account I'm looking at), and the people I know get 8-10 accounts. A lot of people use these books as line-generators and bet-takers but they are actually booking the bets themselves, so for instance they will give their client a pinnacle account and tell him to bet $10 on pinnacle for every $1000 he really wants to bet.

[Jeff P]

It's an old joke. But it explains a little bit about prediction models...

Members of the tribe asked the Medicine Man how cold he thought the coming winter might be and how long it might last. They also asked him if he thought they had gathered enough firewood.

The Medicine Man called up the National Weather Service. He asked how cold the coming winter was predicted to be and how long it might last.

"Pretty cold," the voice on the other end of the phone said. "Our prediction models are saying it could last well into March."

Upon hearing the news the Medicine Man told the tribe: "Better gather more firewood just in case."

A week later the tribe asked the Medicine Man if he thought they had gathered enough firewood.

The Medicine Man called up the National Weather Service again. He asked if their forecast from last week still held. To his dismay the voice on the other end of the phone said "No. Our forecast has been revised slightly. Our prediction models are saying the coming winter may in fact be colder than originally thought. There’s a chance it could last all the way into April."

Upon hearing the news he told the tribe: "Gather LOTS of firewood."

A week later the tribe asked the Medicine Man if he thought they had gathered enough firewood.

The Medicine Man again called up the National Weather Service. He asked if the forecast from last week still held – or if the forecast had been revised. To his utter dismay the voice on the other end of the phone said "Our forecast has been revised – Our prediction models are now saying the coming winter may in fact turn out to be one of the worst on record."

Upon hearing the news he told the tribe: "Gather ALL of the firewood you can carry."

A week later the tribe again asked the Medicine Man if he thought they had gathered enough firewood.

Once again, the Medicine Man called up the National Weather Service. He asked if the forecast from the previous week still held – or if the forecast had been revised. To his horror the voice on the other end of the phone said "Hell yes. It’s going to a bad one. In fact our prediction models are now saying this winter is probably going to be THE worst winter of the past 100 years."

"What makes you say that?" the Medicine Man asked. "Has the Jet Stream changed?"

"No," the voice on the other end of the phone said. "It’s not the Jet Stream. It’s those Indians. We have it on good authority that they’re cutting a shitload of firewood."




-jp

.

[lamboguy]

new line from thegreek.com: the democrats are now -$220-$100.

[GameTheory]

new line from thegreek.com: the democrats are now -$220-$100.
In trade now 58.6 vs 41.2 -- that's 2 points down for Obama just today -- that's a lot of movement on a weekend a couple of days after Biden supposedly righted the ship. Pinnacle at -201.

The next debate can't come fast enough for Obama. It will be his last chance to salvage the campaign. (I'm pretending there is something he can do about it so I have something to talk about, but it is just for fun. He's toast, period.)

[lamboguy]

In trade now 58.6 vs 41.2 -- that's 2 points down for Obama just today -- that's a lot of movement on a weekend a couple of days after Biden supposedly righted the ship. Pinnacle at -201.

The next debate can't come fast enough for Obama. It will be his last chance to salvage the campaign. (I'm pretending there is something he can do about it so I have something to talk about, but it is just for fun. He's toast, period.)can't argue with that at all

[bigmack]

can't argue with that at all
Best to kick back and drink in his posts from this point forward on the sub.

WAY more value than daily thegreek.com lines. :rolleyes:

Who finds those of interest besides you?

[GameTheory]

Best to kick back and drink in his posts from this point forward on the sub.

WAY more value than daily thegreek.com lines. :rolleyes:

Who finds those of interest besides you?He *did* start this thread. Obama back to 61% on intrade -- somebody still thinks he is going to win...

[GameTheory]

This week should be informative about how the betting markets work. I suspect what is currently keeping Obama afloat is that most polls still show him up in Ohio, and of course the way it looks now Romney has absolutely got to have Ohio. So do the markets lead or follow? I think they follow, and as soon as Ohio tips to Romney poll-wise you'll see drop big again. But not before.

[ArlJim78]

I've said all along these markets are following events. this week will be pivotal I think. after this next debate and the next round of polls things will be pretty much set. by the end of next week I think you will see Romney leading in Ohio polls, and panic start to set in on the left.

[bigmack]

the way it looks now Romney has absolutely got to have Ohio.
He'll get it but he ABSOLUTELY won't need it.

[GameTheory]

He'll get it but he ABSOLUTELY won't need it.If he wins in a truly big landslide in which he starts getting states like Michigan, Wisconsin, etc then he won't absolutely need it numbers-wise, but there is no way he is going to get Michigan without Ohio going first. So in that sense Ohio is still a necessity just because any plausible winning scenario includes it.

Come Nov 5th (the day before the election), I don't think there will be any doubts about the outcome -- it will have broken one-way or the other by then. I don't think we are headed for Bush-Gore. Unless we are...

[Jake]

If he wins in a truly big landslide in which he starts getting states like Michigan, Wisconsin, etc then he won't absolutely need it numbers-wise, but there is no way he is going to get Michigan without Ohio going first. So in that sense Ohio is still a necessity just because any plausible winning scenario includes it.

Come Nov 5th (the day before the election), I don't think there will be any doubts about the outcome -- it will have broken one-way or the other by then. I don't think we are headed for Bush-Gore. Unless we are...


I think Nate Silvers still has it correctly. There has been big momentum for Romney but unless he can pry loose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nevada, Obama gets four more years. Romney will take Florida and N Carolina, probably Colorado, but Virginia remains the other key swing state that is crucial for both candidates. And, as far as the debate tonight goes, if Obama can even appear awake this time--perhaps with Biden's Red Bull supply--he will clock decent enough polling numbers. He doesn't have to win the debate, he just can't afford to lose again doing his bad impression of a bored college professor. If he comes out with strong body language and energy, that will matter more than the rehearsed practiced answers. And, only this debate matters, I think, for this election. Foreign affairs, Libya, all in the last debate stuff won't impact this race a whit; it's not what people care about. Thus, crucial debate here tonight to see if Obama cracks a bit more or rebounds, but otherwise Romney remains a bit short in the key swing states going into election day.

[GameTheory]

There has been big momentum for Romney but unless he can pry loose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nevada, Obama gets four more years. Romney will take Florida and N Carolina, probably Colorado, but Virginia remains the other key swing state that is crucial for both candidates. Only Ohio needs to be pried loose. As of this moment, I'd give VA, NC, CO, & NH to Romney. Then OH gives him 279. He doesn't need IA, WI, or NV, although one or two of them look to be in play. But all that could change tomorrow.

I think it is funny that Obama is still figured to win tonight's debate, meaning Romney is once again the underdog and should easily exceed expectations where if Obama is decent but not spectacular he'll still disappoint.

Speaking of which, intrade is now taking bets on the winner of the debate, or specifically on the winner of the CNN post-debate poll. All of the betting markets have been in a holding pattern since last week, up & down within a couple of points -- waiting for Romney to pry one of those states loose...

[bigmack]

I would like to give a big 'shout out' :rolleyes: to JoeyB.

Women are rolling Romney BIG TIME after the VP debates.

Where BO won the dame vote by 14 in '08, it's now even and trending Mitt.

Thanks JOey.

http://assets.rollingstone.com/assets/images/blog_entry/1000x600/20121012-joe-biden-600x-1350056911.jpg

[ArlJim78]

yes and this is despite all the time they spent on the "war on women" campaign Sandra Flucke. Eva Longoria, etc. Romney pulls ahead with women, gee imagine that.

[Jake]

Only Ohio needs to be pried loose. As of this moment, I'd give VA, NC, CO, & NH to Romney. Then OH gives him 279. He doesn't need IA, WI, or NV, although one or two of them look to be in play. But all that could change tomorrow.

I think it is funny that Obama is still figured to win tonight's debate, meaning Romney is once again the underdog and should easily exceed expectations where if Obama is decent but not spectacular he'll still disappoint.

Speaking of which, intrade is now taking bets on the winner of the debate, or specifically on the winner of the CNN post-debate poll. All of the betting markets have been in a holding pattern since last week, up & down within a couple of points -- waiting for Romney to pry one of those states loose...


If Romney can pry loose Ohio, then he has likely pried loose the other states IA, WI, and NV as well, and it's a landslide. But I don't think he can pry loose Ohio, which means he has to capture those other states because right now Obama is still leading in them. I'm not going to argue what are actual poll numbers here, but I believe he is leading in those states. So, if Ohio remains Democratic, Romney has to tilt the other 3 states in his direction. And, that is still assuming he can pull Colorado, NH, and Virginia, which still aren't locked down.

I don't think most people think now the Obama will win the debate. If anything, the town hall setting should favor Romney's style of speaking and connecting with the audience. But, again I don't think Obama has to win here to stop the poll leakage, only do reasonably well. I'm guessing that he can at least do that, so I disagree about any real disappointment. Short of falling off the stage, nothing can be worse than that last performance.

[GameTheory]

If Romney can pry loose Ohio, then he has likely pried loose the other states IA, WI, and NV as well, and it's a landslide. But I don't think he can pry loose Ohio, which means he has to capture those other states because right now Obama is still leading in them. I'm not going to argue what are actual poll numbers here, but I believe he is leading in those states. So, if Ohio remains Democratic, Romney has to tilt the other 3 states in his direction. And, that is still assuming he can pull Colorado, NH, and Virginia, which still aren't locked down.I think Ohio will go first, not last. Ohio is the state (other than VA & NH) that most likely to flip to Romney -- more so than IA, WI, & NV.

I don't think most people think now the Obama will win the debate.Not according to the intrade.com betting on the *debate*, which has Obama at 60% and Romney at 40%. And most of the liberal pundits think he'll win for some reason, although a few are remaining pessimistic after last time. I hope Andrew Sullivan watches with a defibrillator nearby...

[pandy]

One of the most interesting aspects of this Presidential race is how many business people, small and large, including many famous businessmen and well known Democrats are publicly coming out against the incumbent President. I can't remember anything like this, ever. Mort Zuckerman, publisher of US News, is a democrat who voted for Obama. Now he is writing long detailed editorials about why Obama must be voted out of office to avoid a crisis. Steve Wynn, a democrat, is another who has been saying the same thing. Jack Welsh, who also voted for Obama, same thing. Ross Perot. Trump. The list goes on and on. These people aren't just endorsing Romney, they're saying that we could have a severe financial crisis if Obama is reelected. This is unprecedented. Several major chain restaurants this week announced that they are going to reduce full time employee hours to part time so they could deal with the cost of Obamacare. And then they have Harry Reid and Pelosi, the two of them have the lowest approval ratings of any elected officials in the country. It seems like a lot to overcome.

[Jake]

I think Ohio will go first, not last. Ohio is the state (other than VA & NH) that most likely to flip to Romney -- more so than IA, WI, & NV.

Not according to the intrade.com betting on the *debate*, which has Obama at 60% and Romney at 40%. And most of the liberal pundits think he'll win for some reason, although a few are remaining pessimistic after last time. I hope Andrew Sullivan watches with a defibrillator nearby...


No, I disagree. Numbers are showing that both Nevada and Iowa have more chance of flipping than Ohio, and that's with some polling just in today. I believe these numbers are as accurate as possible these days, reason for my earlier point. If the numbers are wrong, then obviously my opinion is wrong. Intrade betting on the debate doesn't measure public opinion, it measures "wagering" opinion, if you understand what I mean. I haven't seen an actual poll with this as the key question, who do you think will win tonight?, but even that doesn't matter. By Friday after updated polls for several days, I think we will know if Obama will hold Ohio or not.

[pandy]

With 3 weeks left, the polls con continue to trend one way or another. I remember when Bush won both of his terms his poll numbers in the swing states continued to improve over the last few weeks.

[GameTheory]

No, I disagree. Numbers are showing that both Nevada and Iowa have more chance of flipping than Ohio, and that's with some polling just in today. Haven't seen that. It seems like Romney ought to take Iowa, but what do I know about Iowa? I say Ohio flips first (or in-tandem).

[lamboguy]

as of 5:30 thegreek.com has taken the election line off the board. prior to this they had the line: the democrats -$220-$100. the line has not moved since last saturday.

i suspect we shall know who the winner of this election is the next time they put a line back up should there be a dramatic move from where it was prior to the debate.

[horses4courses]

i suspect we shall know who the winner of this election is the next time they put a line back up should there be a dramatic move from where it was prior to the debate.

I think it's pretty safe to say that we won't know the winner of this election until very late on Nov 6th, or around dawn on Nov 7th.

[lamboguy]

I think it's pretty safe to say that we won't know the winner of this election until very late on Nov 6th, or around dawn on Nov 7th.i disagree, we should know it tonight if Obama don't show up again

[bigmack]

I think it's pretty safe to say that we won't know the winner of this election until very late on Nov 6th, or around dawn on Nov 7th.
Man, if you could see your posts from 2-3 weeks, you'd be busting a gut like me. I thought it was a lock? :lol:

[horses4courses]

Man, if you could see your posts from 2-3 weeks, you'd be busting a gut like me. I thought it was a lock? :lol:

Find a post where I said that.
No. I'll save you the time. You can't.

You're one of the few using that term around here, and you're going to look like the fool that you are when you're wrong.

[bigmack]

Find a post where I said that.
No. I'll save you the time. You can't.
There's two you can suck on. There's more where that came from.

Just whine and I'll toss a few more in your playpen.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/1-4.png

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/2-3.png

[Jake]

Haven't seen that. It seems like Romney ought to take Iowa, but what do I know about Iowa? I say Ohio flips first (or in-tandem).

Numbers posted at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Check the right hand side for State by State Probabilities, with summaries below.

His numbers indicate Ohio remains tough to turn. We'll see after the debate.

[horses4courses]

Latest line movement in London has Obama -275 to -300.
Romney is +200 most everywhere.

[pandy]

I think it's over. I predicated that Romney would win in the summer and I feel more confident now. The U6 unemployment rate is 14.7, which is really all you need to know. Independents and moderate democrats went for Obama overwhelmingly last time and he won 53% of the popular vote. Now he is saying that if he is re-elected he will continue on the same path because we are making progress. That isn't going to fly. Independent voting should shift at least 15% towards Romney and then moderate democrats will have perhaps a 5% shift.

[sammy the sage]

a CLEAR bias is emerging amongst a greater opinion swinger than cable talking heads...

search engines now throwing corporate weight around...

yahoo's front lead today...

http://www.yahoo.com/

[horses4courses]

There's two you can suck on. There's more where that came from.

Just whine and I'll toss a few more in your playpen.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/1-4.png

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/2-3.png

I've worked too long in bookmaking to ever use the term "lock".

I have always given Romney a shot in this thing, and never really understood why his odds climbed so high around a month ago. Stated that here more than once.

As far as the joke about 2096, the GOP does have a concern.
With as motivated as Republican voters should be for this election,
if Romney comes up short in 2012, there may be a message there.
Either you're not registering enough GOP voters, or you have an identity problem.
Maybe the Tea Party has a bigger future than some think.

[lamboguy]

a CLEAR bias is emerging amongst a greater opinion swinger than cable talking heads...

search engines now throwing corporate weight around...

yahoo's front lead today...

http://www.yahoo.com/these polls and newspaper headlines don't mean one blessed thing. pay attention to the line that thegreek.com will put back up today or tomorrow and you will get a clearer indication as to who won or lost this debate and will also give you an unbiased probability as to who is going to win this election.

[pandy]

I forgot to mention turnout, a big advantage for Romney, and of course the Tea Party factor.