2012 presidential election odds

[lamboguy]

strange move over at thegreek.com this morning.

the democrat went from -$180-$100 up to $183-$100 overnight.

they tell me that the move the line ,01 for each $10,000 bet on it. that must mean that they got $30,000 in bets last night on the democrat.

they are not losing anything to this because i remember when i first started to follow this the democrat was $250-$100. so for those that like to follow the money, it would seem that there is more money on the republican so far in this election.

what is interesting is the amount of money bet on the election. there seems to be plenty of interest worldwide. there may be plenty of hedger's and scalpers playing this election from both sides.

[FantasticDan]

This is the 3rd new thread you've started on this same topic in less than a week..

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=96545

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=96630

Makes no sense. Why not just reply in the original?

[lamboguy]

This is the 3rd new thread you've started on this same topic in less than a week..

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=96545

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=96630

Makes no sense. Why not just reply in the original?duly noted, thank you

[lamboguy]

after i heard there was going to be an announcement this morning i went to thegreek.com to check the odds. lo and behold, this election is off the board right now!

[lamboguy]

election odds back on the board. the democrat went down slightly in price to -$180-$100, someone must have liked the vp choice

[Shemp Howard]

It's just Sheldon Adelson buying some insurance.

[Valuist]

I saw Obama's odds were -180 on Friday at Bookmaker. Bookmaker has since taken the Presidential odds off the board and they will be back up on August 18th.

[horses4courses]

I saw Obama's odds were -180 on Friday at Bookmaker. Bookmaker has since taken the Presidential odds off the board and they will be back up on August 18th.

Here ya go:

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winning-party

Btw, Pinnacle (one of the biggest out there) are looking for Dem money.

[Valuist]

Here ya go:

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winning-party

Btw, Pinnacle (one of the biggest out there) are looking for Dem money.

Once upon a time, Pinnacle was the biggest player. Bookmaker.eu IS the biggest now.

[horses4courses]

Once upon a time, Pinnacle was the biggest player. Bookmaker.eu IS the biggest now.

Proof?

Pardon me for doubting, but 3 or 4 years back they were second rate.
That's been a pretty rapid rise......

[Valuist]

Proof?

Pardon me for doubting, but 3 or 4 years back they were second rate.
That's been a pretty rapid rise......

They took much of the business that Pinnacle used to have, until Pinnacle closed their doors to the US. Bookmaker is the former CRIS, which was already one of the biggest books in the world.

[horses4courses]

They took much of the business that Pinnacle used to have, until Pinnacle closed their doors to the US. Bookmaker is the former CRIS, which was already one of the biggest books in the world.

Yes, I remember when Ron Sacco started CRIS

[horses4courses]

until Pinnacle closed their doors to the US.

Every legitimate bookmaking operation throughout the world closed their doors to the US.
They have company directors, and shareholders, who don't wish to be locked up, should they ever decide to set foot on these shores.
That's why they chose not to do business with US residents.

Any company who does otherwise, is not to be trusted as a going concern.
They're like any other illegal book being operated throughout this country.
Sure, the money is there to be made in the short term.
Don't expect them to be around in the years ahead, though.

[horses4courses]

So, as things stand right now on the odds, IF you had accounts with both Pinnacle and William Hill, AND had a spare $27200 between them, you could bet both sides and lock up a $700 profit. :cool:

$17900 with Pinnacle on the Dems @ -179 to win $10K
$9300 with Will Hill on the Reps @ +200 to win $18600

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winning-party

"Get your money for nothing, and your chicks for free"

That is, of course, assuming that an independent won't go to the White House.
Oy vey........ :bang:

[lamboguy]

there has been a little bit of a betting surge in the last few days.

the odds have gone up from the Democrat -$180 to the Democrat -$200.


Thegreek.com is where i am quoting my prices from. as far as i know Spiro is pretty large and very reputable. i don't know if he is bigger than the ones that have been mentioned on this thread, all i know is that he has been doing this for the past 20 years offshore.

[horses4courses]

there has been a little bit of a betting surge in the last few days.

the odds have gone up from the Democrat -$180 to the Democrat -$200.


Thegreek.com is where i am quoting my prices from. as far as i know Spiro is pretty large and very reputable. i don't know if he is bigger than the ones that have been mentioned on this thread, all i know is that he has been doing this for the past 20 years offshore.

The Greek is a major player.
Always quick to post lines - they've been around forever.

[Valuist]

It will be interesting to see when Bookmaker.eu posts their numbers. They have a lot of US accounts; while I believe the UK books are great at setting lines for events like the Arlington Million and BC turf races, they primarily have European customers so its likely they have a biased opinion in favor of the Euro-friendly Obama.

Bill Hill: Obama 2-5 Romney 7-4. Sorry but IMO thats the worst 2-5 shot I've ever seen. Come "post time" I suspect that line will come in, at least at a shop like Bookmaker where the clientele are more familiar with both candidates.

[Bettowin]

Bovada has:

2012 US Presidential Election - Winning Party 9:00p Democratic Party -210
Republican Party +170

[lamboguy]

It will be interesting to see when Bookmaker.eu posts their numbers. They have a lot of US accounts; while I believe the UK books are great at setting lines for events like the Arlington Million and BC turf races, they primarily have European customers so its likely they have a biased opinion in favor of the Euro-friendly Obama.

Bill Hill: Obama 2-5 Romney 7-4. Sorry but IMO thats the worst 2-5 shot I've ever seen. Come "post time" I suspect that line will come in, at least at a shop like Bookmaker where the clientele are more familiar with both candidates.a friend of mine just told me that Bookmaker has the line -$220 over the phone.

i am going to give the greek the respect on this line, they take the biggest bite.

it looks like they are loaded with Republican money

[lamboguy]

as of today, August 24 thegreek.com new line for this election:

Democrats -$210-$100

Republicans $100-$175

[lamboguy]

checked odds today and saw that thegreek.com had this election off the boards.

i checked with BETCRIS.com and they had it up at Democrat -$190 Republican +$160

wider spread, but according to them shifting towards the Republican.

no question in my mind, if i could get down i would be taking the +$170 for some large change. i think this election is going to flip-flop going forward.

[horses4courses]

checked odds today and saw that thegreek.com had this election off the boards.

i checked with BETCRIS.com and they had it up at Democrat -$190 Republican +$160

wider spread, but according to them shifting towards the Republican.

no question in my mind, if i could get down i would be taking the +$170 for some large change. i think this election is going to flip-flop going forward.

Fly to London, lambo
Plenty of books will give you +175 on the Republicans for 5-10K a pop.

[horses4courses]

What's interesting to me is the fact that the best generally available odds you can get on the Republicans winning is +175.
Yet, you can bet on Mitt Romney being the next president at +187 with quite a few books.

That's quite an odds differential for six of one, and a half dozen of the other.

[lamboguy]

What's interesting to me is the fact that the best generally available odds you can get on the Republicans winning is +175.
Yet, you can bet on Mitt Romney being the next president at +187 with quite a few books.

That's quite an odds differential for six of one, and a half dozen of the other.
its like betting a baseball game where you name the pitchers and both of them have to start otherwise you got no action.

if i was betting on the democrats, i would much rather be betting on that entry instead of Obama, he is a beatable candidate against Romney, Hillary can't miss against anyone the other side puts up.

[Valuist]

if i was betting on the democrats, i would much rather be betting on that entry instead of Obama, he is a beatable candidate against Romney, Hillary can't miss against anyone the other side puts up.

If Obama wins this election and the economy goes deeper into the toilet, she won't have a chance in 2016. Ryan will crush her. Her best chance is if Romney/Ryan win now, but if the economy still is struggling by 2016.

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com is back up with the democrats -$210-$100

[Valuist]

thegreek.com is back up with the democrats -$175-$100

Look where the money is moving. The William Hill and other UK bookmaker's odds were a joke. They should stick to horse racing and soccer. Things they are knowledgable about.

[lamboguy]

Look where the money is moving. The William Hill and other UK bookmaker's odds were a joke. They should stick to horse racing and soccer. Things they are knowledgable about.
i made a mistake posting before

[horses4courses]

Look where the money is moving. The William Hill and other UK bookmaker's odds were a joke. They should stick to horse racing and soccer. Things they are knowledgable about.

Yeah, they've only been doing business legally for over 80 years.... :rolleyes:
The only thing that moves that line is money, and they are taking it on both sides.

If they lack knowledge with betting on politics, their doors are open 7 days a week for the likes of you to stick it to them.

[lamboguy]

as of 6:00 p.m.

Democrats are down to -$185- $100

Republicans $100- $165


someone must have come in with $100,000 to win on the Republicans

[lamboguy]

August 31

thegreek.com does not have the election odds up on the board as of this morning.

[mountainman]

If Obama wins this election and the economy goes deeper into the toilet, she won't have a chance in 2016. Ryan will crush her. Her best chance is if Romney/Ryan win now, but if the economy still is struggling by 2016.

Do you think christie and rubio are rooting FOR romney? Our outlook has become so bleak that any sane politician with long range designs on the white house has GOT to be pulling against his own party.

[lamboguy]

Election odds back up at thegreek.com

Democrats now -$200-$100

[Johnny V]

Obama −200
Romney +170

Line posted on 5Dimes today.

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com just moved up the election line to democrats -$210-$100.

[lamboguy]

as of 7:00 thegreek.com has taken the election off the boards

[lamboguy]

odds at thegreek.com are now back up

democrats are now - $230-$100

[burnsy]

[QUOTE=mountainman]Do you think christie and rubio are rooting FOR romney? Our outlook has become so bleak that any sane politician with long range designs on the white house has GOT to be pulling against his own party.[/QUOTE
you got that right. sometimes i feel like the republicans are trying to lose. Mccain and Palin had loser written all over it...i suspect that if they had to run against Hilary....it would of been worse for them. Now they are putting this Romney up there! I'm sorry but the guy comes across as a some what of a chowder head. When i hear him speak i wonder if hes running for some hick town mayor or something from Oh Brother Where Art Thou....lol. "My constituacy"...lol. Whats next....midgets? Obama is no great deal either but look at the choices we get in "free country".... lol. The economy is in a ditch (jobs wise) and will continue to be that way for the next couple years......AT LEAST. No matter who is in there! These guys promising this and that...have no power to change it! Why would you want to win if you can get so much milage pointing at the other guy? Thats how the republicans creamed 2010! Romney is in there because the others you mentioned are smart enough to wait this thing out. On the odds, the incumbant will always be the favorite...he has the office at his disposal. Its tougher on presidents but the congressional and senate seats are practically "rigged districts". Thats why there are guys there until they die. "Free Country" , yeah, thats the intentions, to go to washington, get rich and be bought off for decades...thats what the founders wanted....lol...lol. The chickens have come home to roost my friends.......the two party system is part of the problem....not the answer. We get to live with it everyday now and people still back it. Dumb and Dumber with an 80% chance of crooks being bought off....don't forget about the fanatic wing nuts that back this garbage....watch C-Span, Facebook and the internet...the talking points are not only stupid but hilarious....lol. We get just what we deserve....in a "free country". lol

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com now has this election the democrats -$220-$100.

[PaceAdvantage]

When will Obama become such the heavy favorite that they simply stop taking action altogether?

[horses4courses]

Odds in UK hitting the -3.00 mark with quite a few books.
Ladbroke's, who once sought Obama money, were the first to hit -3.00 last week.

[MrBaseball]

I haven't inquired, anyone on this forum KNOW what type of limits are these offshore shops accepting for this presidential wager? Would these books accept a $200,000 wager as the "the M" in 'Vegas took from Floyd $ Mayweather on the 2H of Cowboys-Giants game last week? :confused:

Mr BB

[horses4courses]

I haven't inquired, anyone on this forum KNOW what type of limits are these offshore shops accepting for this presidential wager? Would these books accept a $200,000 wager as the "the M" in 'Vegas took from Floyd $ Mayweather on the 2H of Cowboys-Giants game last week? :confused:

Mr BB

Depends who you are.
"Booking to faces" is how it is termed.

If Mayweather can regularly give them that type of action, they will take him on.
A "hit and run" type will not get those limits.

[horses4courses]

No shortage of "triple your money" opportunities on Romney now.
Ooh boy......... ;)

[PaceAdvantage]

Seriously, when do you think they stop taking bets on Obama?

[horses4courses]

Seriously, when do you think they stop taking bets on Obama?

I doubt that most books would stop until Election Day.
They have to be getting some Romney support.

[Rookies]

Will Hill:
Obama -275
Mittens + 200

For those on the losing Repub side...you can start early on 2016 :lol:

Selection +450
Mitt Romney

+700
Hillary Clinton

+700
Paul Ryan

+1000
Marco Rubio

+1600
Andrew Cuomo

+1600
Jeb Bush

+2500
Joe Biden

+2500
Martin O'Malley

+3300
Bobby Jindal

+3300
Chris Christie

+3300
Condoleeza Rice

+3300
Michael Bloomberg

+3300
Rick Santorum

+4000
Scott Walker

+5000
Bob McDonnell

+5000
Cory Booker

+5000
Elizabeth Warren

+5000
Jon Huntsman

+5000
Julian Castro

+5000
Mia Love

+5000
Sarah Palin

+6600
David Petraeus

+6600
Deval Patrick

+6600
Eric Cantor

+6600
Mike Huckabee

+6600
Mike Pence

+6600
Rahm Emmanuel

+6600
Rand Paul

+10000
Dennis Kucinich

+10000
Evan Bayh

+10000
Herman Cain

+10000
John Kasich

+10000
John Thune

+10000
Kathleen Sebelius

+10000
Kay Hagan

+10000
Mark Warner

+10000
Michelle Obama

+10000
Newt Gingrich

+10000
Rick Perry

+10000

[bigmack]

They have to be getting some Romney support.
I'm fairly sure they are.

Get it now before the debates. Romney/Ryan through 2020.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/duke.jpg
Miguel Dukaka. 17 pernt lead after '88 Dim Convention 'gainst Bushski 41.

17 point lead!

[Valuist]

Not surprised Obama is getting the heaviest action at William Hill. They are known as a "squares" book. :lol:

[lamboguy]

line change on thegreek.com the democrats are now -$230-$100

i have been using this site because they will accept a $50,000 wager on the election and pay you if you win. the other lines might deal to smaller action.

i remember a place in Vegas called Gary Austin's, they put up a ridiculous futures line on the yankees winning the world series 30-1. everyone bet the yanks, the yanks won, the place closed, and no one got paid.

[Dave Schwartz]

Meanwhile, Iowa Prediction Markets still has it as 69-30, Obama.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

Ask yourself this... would you bet that Romney will win with real money?

Would you take over 2/1? Those are the current odds!

[hcap]

Sorry gentlemen (and kabong,) Romney will fold when asked by Obama about his health care plan during the first debate.

All down hill after that for the No bounce Dynamic Duo.

[Valuist]

Does anyone know what the limits are on the election wagers? This is basically a prop bet, and props have much smaller limits.

[horses4courses]

Does anyone know what the limits are on the election wagers? This is basically a prop bet, and props have much smaller limits.

Who do you want to bet with?

Some places might only take 1 or 2 thousand before moving the line.
Others, like lambo said, will take up to 50k before adjusting.
I would imagine the major UK firms would take 10-20k a pop.

[lamboguy]

new line this evening from thegreek.com. the democrats are now -$240-$100.

[fast4522]

Sorry gentlemen (and kabong,) Romney will fold when asked by Obama about his health care plan during the first debate.

All down hill after that for the No bounce Dynamic Duo.

"2012 presidential election odds"

I would not bet any part of your SSI monthly entitlement moneys on things turning out as you like. The race is much tighter than any poll can project. It was so comforting last night being asked for a photo ID prior to voting in the NH primary, we were told that it was not law in the primary but will be in the next general election so they wanted people to get used to the idea.

[hcap]

I would not bet any part of your SSI monthly entitlement moneys on things turning out as you like. SS not SSI. Although I get a slight bit more because I am legally blind. However you my "filth" friend are clearly visible for what you are

Btw, I paid into the system for over 50 years.

[fast4522]

So exactly who am I some rich old guy your age?

[kingfin66]

I'm fairly sure they are.

Get it now before the debates. Romney/Ryan through 2020.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/duke.jpg
Miguel Dukaka. 17 pernt lead after '88 Dim Convention 'gainst Bushski 41.

17 point lead!

All it took was Willie Horton and being in ridiculous photos like that.

[lamboguy]

update from thegreek.com the democrats are now -$250-$100

[Tom]

All it took was Willie Horton and being in ridiculous photos like that.

You think that might be it?

[redshift1]

Another take from Nate Silver @ NYT.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com


Other than Rasmussen the various polls are in agreement.


Some significant event would need to occur to reverse the current trend. Something that causes a sea-change in voter sentiment

Perhaps a major gaffe in the debates?
Geopolitical event?
Domestic turmoil?

.

[bigmack]

Other than Rasmussen the various polls are in agreement.

Let's see... We have Nate Silver, a blogger for the NYT, and we have Rasmussen.

Who was the most accurate poll outfit from the '08 election, you might ax ?

Voila -

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/TheList-Whichpresidentialpollsweremostaccurate--TexasonthePotomac-aChroncomblog.png

[lamboguy]

Let's see... We have Nate Silver, a blogger for the NYT, and we have Rasmussen.

Who was the most accurate poll outfit from the '08 election, you might ax ?

Voila -

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/TheList-Whichpresidentialpollsweremostaccurate--TexasonthePotomac-aChroncomblog.pngi have never seen a poll that puts out betting lines and takes action with real money. whatever the polls say do or act don't mean a thing.

[bigmack]

i have never seen a poll that puts out betting lines and takes action with real money. whatever the polls say do or act don't mean a thing.
Wanna bet?

[redshift1]

My bet, Rasmussen's final 2012 presidental election poll favors Romney.



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

[bigmack]

PM's welcome for all those confused on the outcome.

[lamboguy]

Wanna bet?
i just quit gambling

[Saratoga_Mike]

PM's welcome for all those confused on the outcome.

Let's make it interesting BM. Before I state my proposal, let me state I will be voting for Romney.

Here's the proposal: We bet $2,500 on the election. I get Obama and you get Romney. The winner of the electoral college will be the winner of this wager. The loser donates $2,500 (in US dollars) to the winner's favorite charity. Both sides must agree on the charities ahead of time. The loser must send the winner a CERTIFIED check made out to the winner's charity (this will allow the winner to verify the loser has paid (as Reagan said trust but verify) and the winner will forward the check to the charity) by no later than the end of Nov 2012. My favorite charity is St. Aloysius School in Harlem (www.staloysiusschool.org).

Overview of St. Aloy....

St. Aloysius offers an exceptional, holistic curriculum aimed at ensuring that under-served children have the support and opportunities that lead to success in school and productive futures. Our results speak for themselves. We have tracked our students over several years, and all of them have graduated from St. Aloysius on time and matriculated to good high schools, most to private or charter schools. Furthermore, 84% of our alumni in high school graduate in four years - for those who participate in our Graduate Support Program, that rate climbs to 96%. This stands in stark contrast to the 54% on-time high school graduation rate for African American students in New York City. And 79% of our alumni go on to college.

If you'd like to move forward, please name your favorite charity and please provide me with a link. I will state upfront that I do not find the arts a worthy charity. Also, please confirm you are willing send me a CERTIFIED check made out to my charity by the end of November 2012 (if you lose).

I look forward to your response. And given Obama is likely to win, St. Aloy looks forward to your money!

[bigmack]

Tone it down, Miguel. We can't conduct this pubicly.

PM me & delete your post.

[horses4courses]

PM's welcome for all those confused on the outcome.

I'm gonna just love signing in here on Nov. 7th........... :lol:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Tone it down, Miguel. We can't conduct this pubicly.

PM me & delete your post.

We can't conduct a wager where ALL proceeds will go to charity publicly? Why not?

I would never conduct this wager with you via PM - I don't trust you. I want everything out in the open. Did you miss the part about all of the proceeds go to charity??? Please propose your charity, approve my charity and let's move forward. Thank you.

[lamboguy]

We can't conduct a wager where ALL proceeds will go to charity publicly? Why not?

I would never conduct this wager with you via PM - I don't trust you. I want everything out in the open. Did you miss the part about all of the proceeds go to charity??? Please propose your charity, approve my charity and let's move forward. Thank you.what do you expect from closet liberal's?

[Saratoga_Mike]

what do you expect from closet liberal's?

I don't think BM's a closet liberal. I just think his bluff was called and he didn't expect it. Now he's going to lash out at me and berate me, but I don't care. My offer still stands as outlined in my earlier post.

In the name of charity, I once again invite BM to take me up on my offer.

[Jay Trotter]

I'm gonna just love signing in here on Nov. 7th........... :lol:It'll be a fun day either way!

... I just think his bluff was called and he didn't expect it....

In the name of charity, I once again invite BM to take me up on my offer.I think he's realizinng his bluster is catching up with him and this thing might set him back a good chunk of change, for charity or otherwise.

I say the "chicken" does not take the offer!:rolleyes:

[bigmack]

In the name of charity, I once again invite BM to take me up on my offer.

Look man, I should turn you down flat for bringing it up here in pubic but I'm as charitable as Joey B. See, he ain't all that wild about charities.

But I will be charitable with all the stiffs around this dump. Instead of me finding some retirement home for ho's, I'll throw my lettuce towards some dopey contest(s) with that Trotter guy to be used to fund the degenerates around here. You lose, you do likevise.

How's that ?

Next time you drop me a PM first, got me?

[lamboguy]

I don't think BM's a closet liberal. I just think his bluff was called and he didn't expect it. Now he's going to lash out at me and berate me, but I don't care. My offer still stands as outlined in my earlier post.

In the name of charity, I once again invite BM to take me up on my offer.who in their right mind is going to bet on Romney at even money now?

[ElKabong]

who in their right mind is going to bet on Romney at even money now?

No kidding. You can clean up on the online books, at odds.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just goes to show you who the real gamblers are on this site... :lol:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Look man, I should turn you down flat for bringing it up here in pubic but I'm as charitable as Joey B. See, he ain't all that wild about charities.

But I will be charitable with all the stiffs around this dump. Instead of me finding some retirement home for ho's, I'll throw my lettuce towards some dopey contest(s) with that Trotter guy to be used to fund the degenerates around here. You lose, you do likevise.

How's that ?

Next time you drop me a PM first, got me?

No, you must name a worthy charity (no offense Trotter--your creative work on BoxCar during the gays-in-the-military debate was nothing short of brilliant, but your contests don't constitute a charity). BM don't try to get out of this by making it about gambling rather than charity. It's obvious what you're trying to do - bluff called!

How about you go with the Salvation Army? How about the USO?

OTHER POSTERS - HELP BM - he needs a charity - please help.

And why should I PM you? Isn't it better to have a public record?

[PaceAdvantage]

And why should I PM you? Isn't it better to have a public record?You shouldn't even PM...except to exchange email addresses.

This kind of gambling (and yes, it is gambling, even if the money is going to charity) is prohibited on this forum, and for once in his life, BM is actually following the rules I have set forth on here.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Just goes to show you who the real gamblers are on this site... :lol:

If he takes me up on my "wager" (only charity will benefit), he will be making a gutsy (some might say foolish) statement, I concede that. If we can settle on a worthy charity on his side, I will happily send the check if he prevails and congratulate him on the call - as I want Romney to win.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You shouldn't even PM...except to exchange email addresses.

This kind of gambling (and yes, it is gambling, even if the money is going to charity) is prohibited on this forum, and for once in his life, BM is actually following the rules I have set forth on here.

You just gave him the out he needs. I'm not faulting you in anyway (I wasn't aware of this rule). The bottom line is he's a guy who likes to run his mouth and talk a big game. Call his bluff and he folds.

[Jay Trotter]

No, you must name a worthy charity (no offense Trotter--your creative work on BoxCar during the gays-in-the-military debate was nothing short of brilliant, but your contests don't constitute a charity). No offensse taken Mike! I have no idea what BigNut is talkin' about. The PA contests are all "FREE" events supported by outstanding sponsors. Although I can't recall the pussy ever displaying his handicapping skills in one.

I think he is "bluffing" you. A nice charity he could throw his weight behind would be The Barbaro Fund for Equine Health and Safety Research. That would be a nice touch.

[Saratoga_Mike]

who in their right mind is going to bet on Romney at even money now?

Well, I think we know someone who is NOT willing to bet on Romney - BM. He does talk a big game, though. I actually thought he might just back it up. He's got an out now, and you can bet your life he'll rely on it.

[bigmack]

Call his bluff and he folds.
Call my bluff? What are you, delusional?

You make terms and if someone wants to change the terms you think they're backing down? Don't make me laugh, Chump.

Off the top of me head, I'll throw dough at whatever charity chosen by the one dude that posts that keeps me around this dump. TommyB.

You name it Tom. Include a link.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Call my bluff? What are you, delusional?

You make terms and if someone wants to change the terms you think they're backing down? Don't make me laugh, Chump.

Off the top of me head, I'll throw dough at whatever charity chosen by the one dude that posts that keeps me around this dump. TommyB.

You name it Tom. Include a link.

Tom - we're waiting on you.

[PaceAdvantage]

Off the top of me head, I'll throw dough at whatever charity chosen by the one dude that posts that keeps me around this dump. TommyB.I agree...this line of posting is absolutely boring the piss out of me...I'd want to leave too...

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought I made it clear that any discussion of wagering between board members was prohibited, both public and private.

Thank you for your cooperation.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I agree...this line of posting is absolutely boring the piss out of me...I'd want to leave too...

Wait a minute, BM's been running his mouth for the past month, saying come one, call all---I'll take all the action. I assume that bored you, too? That's the only reason I ever made this proposal.

[PaceAdvantage]

Wait a minute, BM's been running his mouth for the past month, saying come one, call all---I'll take all the action. I assume that bored you, too? That's the only reason I ever made this proposal.Yes, well, now that there is actual talk between two members, I'm stepping in.

Thank you for your cooperation. (In my best Robocop voice)

[Saratoga_Mike]

I thought I made it clear that any discussion of wagering between board members was prohibited, both public and private.

Thank you for your cooperation.

You've been saved BM. This post isn't meant to disrespect your rules or you PA, just the guy who has run his mouth for a month. Bluff called. Folded. Yeah, he took me up once he knew damn well you were here to call things off.

[PaceAdvantage]

You've been saved BM. This post isn't meant to disrespect your rules or you PA, just the guy who has run his mouth for a month. Bluff called. Folded. Yeah, he took me up once he knew damn well you were here to call things off.PM him for an email address. Problem sol-ved.

Just don't use this board to facilitate the wager (although I guess that's impossible now).

[Saratoga_Mike]

Yes, well, now that there is actual talk between two members, I'm stepping in.

Thank you for your cooperation. (In my best Robocop voice)

I will honor your wishes of course. I am curious what Tom's charity would have been...now I'll never know.

[Saratoga_Mike]

PM him for an email address. Problem sol-ved.

Just don't use this board to facilitate the wager (although I guess that's impossible now).

I don't trust him, and given he doesn't know me he shouldn't trust me. That's why public accountability was desired. Again, I respect your rules.

[bigmack]

I don't trust him, and given he doesn't know me he shouldn't trust me. That's why public accountability was desired. Again, I respect your rules.
Ahhhh, let's try this aGain.

So you're backing out, Mr. NiceGuy?

That's some funny shit.

[Saratoga_Mike]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

What a CHUMP. Phucking backs out.

Nice spin. You had hours to take me up on my wager before Pace arrived. I don't trust you - this was stated much earlier. You aren't credible ("serial entreprenuer"/women all over you/back down on bets the minute you're called out). But note how I'm not calling you a chump or any other name. I don't need to do that. I don't care. You were called out. You folded until - thank God for you - Pace showed up invoking rules (that I wasn't aware of). As I've done with you before (and something you aren't capable of doing), I'm done with you here.

[bigmack]

Well, Johnny Bravo must roll out to service the kitties but the offer still stands.

Look at this buffoon. He doesn't trust a wager to a charity. :lol:

This has been rich. Particularly with all the false bluster.

[PaceAdvantage]

But note how I'm not calling you a chump or any other name.Please note the reply you quoted was deleted almost immediately after it had been posted by BM...but you're obviously quicker than I am, unfortunately.

[sammy the sage]

I just LOVE it when two of MY favorite :kiss: 's go AT it...

get a room ALREADY :rolleyes: :lol:

I'm pretty sure THIS will be deleted as well :D ;)

[PaceAdvantage]

I just LOVE it when two of MY favorite :kiss: 's go AT it...

get a room ALREADY :rolleyes: :lol:

I'm pretty sure THIS will be deleted as well :D ;)Why don't you actually contribute something meaningful, for a change?

Your infinite editorial as well as the giant chip on your shoulder both went lame a long time ago.

[sammy the sage]

Why don't you actually contribute something meaningful, for a change?

Your infinite editorial as well as the giant chip on your shoulder both went lame a long time ago.

gave ya FREE shot thar...hope you enjoyed it...

Interesting to see those WHO can dish it...but CAN'T take it... :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

gave ya FREE shot thar...hope you enjoyed it...

Interesting to see those WHO can dish it...but CAN'T take it... :lol:Can't take what? Your broken-record of a monologue?

[horses4courses]

In UK there is next to nothing less than -3.00 on Obama now.
Starting to see a fair bit of -3.50.

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com still has it -$250-$100 democrats favored. if there is a war, i would imagine that the odds would skyrocket towards the incumbent

[Jay Trotter]

thegreek.com still has it -$250-$100 democrats favored. if there is a war, i would imagine that the odds would skyrocket towards the incumbentCould be the first time in history the Republicans aren't the hawks, eh!

[Saratoga_Mike]

Could be the first time in history the Republicans aren't the hawks, eh!

Ahistorical statement Trotter. Until GWB, Dems had been the interventionists and war-mongers - see US history from circa-1915 onward.

P.S. do you mind if I quote you quoting Thask quoting Box?

[Jay Trotter]

Ahistorical statement Trotter. Until GWB, Dems had been the interventionists and war-mongers - see US history from circa-1915 onward. Well, I still have Cheney in my head.

P.S. do you mind if I quote you quoting Thask quoting Box?I would be honoured.:ThmbUp:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Well, I still have Cheney in my head.

I would be honoured.:ThmbUp:

I have nothing good to say about Cheney. Okay, he's hyperarticulate and a very good debater. I have very little praise for neo-cons in general. I believe they've done a grave disservice to the Rep Party and the country as whole. Try this on for your signature: "I had other priorities in the '60s than military service."

[Jay Trotter]

I have nothing good to say about Cheney. Okay, he's hyperarticulate and a very good debater. I have very little praise for neo-cons in general. I believe they've done a grave disservice to the Rep Party and the country as whole. Try this on for your signature: "I had other priorities in the '60s than military service."I was looking forward to seeing your signature quoting me, quoting Boxcar. C'mon man! :jump:

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com now has this election--the democrats -$260-$100

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com has now moved the election odds up to -$280-$100 in favor of the Democrats

[horses4courses]

thegreek.com has now moved the election odds up to -$280-$100 in favor of the Democrats

$3, here we come.......

[lamboguy]

$3, here we come.......if Romney sounds as bad in the first debate as he does campaigning, god only knows where that price is going.

[Dave Schwartz]

Meanwhile, back at Iowa Prediction Markets, Obama has reached 71%.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

:ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

[Rookies]

How many short moons ago was Burger Boy serving up all those daily meals of Wonderbread struttin' down Pine Street in 1953? :rolleyes:

It's all come asunder! Even N.C. has come back into doubt...http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

The Mittens campaign is spinning around like Linda Blair... or Sarah Palin...take your pick. :lol: http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/09/12/conservatives-hammer-mitt-romney-for-lack-of-specific-policy-details/

"Bryan Fischer, an official with the American Family Association, went even further, accusing Mr. Romney's campaign of putting “a bag over Paul Ryan's head.”
Like others here, he warned that if Mr. Romney loses, the Republican Party is certain to undergo a tough period. “Soul-searching,” “self-reflection” and “tumult” were the words others used.

“If the Republican Party loses this election, conservatives will have had it,” Mr. Fischer said. “They will be done, finished.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/article4547835/

Mittens has 4 shots left and one, involving the VP debate- doesn't count and pits the guy American Seniors are afraid of... v.s. a Senior!

In the other 3, he needs to hit at least 2 Grand Slam Homers or he's done like dinner.

That ain't gonna happen.

[Jay Trotter]

How many short moons ago was Burger Boy serving up all those daily meals of Wonderbread struttin' down Pine Street in 1953? :rolleyes: Last sighting 09-14-2012, 09:45 Perhaps, he has left the building. :jump:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Mittens has 4 shots left and one, involving the VP debate- doesn't count and pits the guy American Seniors are afraid of... v.s. a Senior!



That's odd - 65 and over is the one age demographic where Romney leads O.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Last sighting 09-14-2012, 09:45 Perhaps, he has left the building. :jump:

He has an agreement with Dahoss. If Romney loses, he will cease posting on this board.

[PaceAdvantage]

Like others here, he warned that if Mr. Romney loses, the Republican Party is certain to undergo a tough period. “Soul-searching,” “self-reflection” and “tumult” were the words others used.

“If the Republican Party loses this election, conservatives will have had it,” Mr. Fischer said. “They will be done, finished.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/article4547835/We heard the same BS when Obama won and the Democrats won Congress. I believe some used the term "A 100 year rule of Democrats"

That lasted what? Two years, before the Republicans took back the House? :lol:

[lamboguy]

this guy horses4course is pretty sharp

new line on this election from thegreek.com the democrats are now -$300-$100

[horses4courses]

this guy horses4course is pretty sharp

new line on this election from thegreek.com the democrats are now -$300-$100

Haha....just looking at what's going on elsewhere.
I admire the greek for hanging in there on one-sided action.
If he's taking $50k a pop, he is out a good six figure sum on Obama.
Of course, for major operations, that's just a move on a football game.

I will predict this - there will be a buyback point on Romney.
I'm not sure what that number is - but he will get $$$ before long.
Maybe at around +3.00?

[lamboguy]

the election started @ -$250-$100 6 months ago and the favorite for the republicans won the nomination and the price still has gone up.

[lamboguy]

i went back and checked the election and the line had gone to -$325-$100 take back $275 for a brief moment and then went back down to the -$300-$100.

it seems like the republican election bettors are waiting to come in @+$300

[Rookies]

We heard the same BS when Obama won and the Democrats won Congress. I believe some used the term "A 100 year rule of Democrats"

That lasted what? Two years, before the Republicans took back the House? :lol:

Fair enough, PA.

But these aren't the comments from the opposing team! :rolleyes:

[horses4courses]

Here's a link to the historical odds with the UK books on the 2012 US Pres. race.
Notice that around this time last year, Obama's odds dipped to as low as even money in November. Into 2012, though, the line climbed up again.
The closer you get to post time, the bigger the volume, so there's plenty of line movement still to come.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner/bet-history/barack-obama

[ElKabong]

Here's a link to the historical odds with the UK books on the 2012 US Pres. race.
Notice that around this time last year, Obama's odds dipped to as low as even money in November. Into 2012, though, the line climbed up again.
The closer you get to post time, the bigger the volume, so there's plenty of line movement still to come.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner/bet-history/barack-obama

Ladies and gentlemen, may I have your attention please....The gelding 'Obama' is returning to the paddock for a rider change. You have a few minutes to change or refund your bets. Windows will be open and as usual, the odds will change up to the springing of the gate.

[hcap]

Ladies and gentlemen, may I have your attention please....The gelding 'Obama' is returning to the paddock for a rider change. You have a few minutes to change or refund your bets. Windows will be open and as usual, the odds will change up to the springing of the gate.Try getting a job at Podunk Raceway. Your race calling would fit right in.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/09/17/middle-east-turmoil-closely-followed-romneys-comments-viewed-negatively/

Middle East Turmoil Closely Followed; Romney's Comments Viewed Negatively

...Those who have followed this story have much more positive opinions about Barack Obama’s handling of the situation than Mitt Romney’s comments on the crisis. Nearly half (45%) approve of Obama’s handling of the recent attacks on U.S. embassies and the killing of the U.S. ambassador in Libya; 36% disapprove of Obama’s handling of this situation.

In contrast, only about a quarter (26%) of those who have tracked news on turmoil in the Middle East approve of Romney’s comments on the situation; nearly half (48%) disapprove.

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/09/9-17-12-1.png

[Tom]

Where's the bump?

[lamboguy]

new line today from thegreek.com. the democrats are now -$340-$100

the way i see it, whatever he said or didn't say doesn't warrant this type of a line change. if he wins the first debate he can turn this election around in a heartbeat.

[lamboguy]

new line from thegreek.com the democrats are now -$350-$100

[ceejay]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I think that this guy provides an interesting take. As I understand it, he does Monte Carlo simulation and today gives Obama about 75% likelihood.

[lamboguy]

thegreek.com just dropped the line to -$340-$100

this looks like some buyback money locking in profits

[PaceAdvantage]

Seriously, what's the point of these constant odds updates. None of us can easily get down bets over there anyway...

The election is over. Obama is a lock. I get it...peace out...

[lamboguy]

Seriously, what's the point of these constant odds updates. None of us can easily get down bets over there anyway...

The election is over. Obama is a lock. I get it...peace out...i don't think he is any lock. i've bet on plenty of elections, i learned from the best at it. just because these guys on television all think Romney's a goner doesn't mean a thing to me.

lets face it, neither one of these two guys are any good for our country. to me they are both the same. if Romney is smart enough he can come up with a different issue other a non-winnable one like the economy, he has a good shot to pull it off.

if this election was over the price would be somewhere around 8-1 like the Clinton Dole election.

don't count your chickens before they hatch there is 50 days to go.

[PaceAdvantage]

i don't think he is any lock. i've bet on plenty of elections, i learned from the best at it. just because these guys on television all think Romney's a goner doesn't mean a thing to me.

lets face it, neither one of these two guys are any good for our country. to me they are both the same. if Romney is smart enough he can come up with a different issue other a non-winnable one like the economy, he has a good shot to pull it off.

if this election was over the price would be somewhere around 8-1 like the Clinton Dole election.

don't count your chickens before they hatch there is 50 days to go.In this day and age though, the internet and television tend to mold and solidify opinions more so than in the past.

[fast4522]

Anyone a lock, that is very doubtful. In another thread I asked the question of what would the average Joe have to pay one week before the election to fill up his pickup truck? Do you think people who drive pickups vote less?

[lamboguy]

In this day and age though, the internet and television tend to mold and solidify opinions more so than in the past.maybe so, but the one thing that hasn't changed yet is human nature. most human's tend to guess wrong most of the time, i don't care if its in stock markets, ballgames, horse racing or election's, i don't think that is ever going to change.

i am looking at this strictly from an unbiased gambling aspect.

[Jay Trotter]

Seriously, what's the point of these constant odds updates. None of us can easily get down bets over there anyway...

The election is over. Obama is a lock. I get it...peace out...I say keep posting until it hits -$500-$100 and then stop! Anything after that would be piling on. :lol:

[lamboguy]

just a reminder, this election bet is not written with names, its written with parties if one candidate winds up off the ballot, you still have a bet. stranger things can happen when it comes down to politics.

[Ocala Mike]

"There is a tide in the affairs of men that when taken on the flood leads to fortune." - Will Shakespeare (betting Barry in the 2012 presidential election).

Romney needs to crush in the debates, or else get help from an Obama gaffe or an October surprise in his favor.

[hcap]

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/09/obama-killing-it-intrade

Obama is Killing It on Intrade

The chart shows the Intrade trend over the past couple of weeks, and so far it appears that the release of the 47% fund raising video is having about the same effect as Romney's flub after the Cairo attacks. The Cairo gaffe sent Obama's odds of winning from 58% to 67% over the course of a week, and the secret video is on a similar track, boosting Obama from 67% to 69% in a couple of days. Take it for what it's worth.

http://www.motherjones.com/files/images/blog_intrade_obama_2012_09_19.jpg

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm surprised he's not kissing 100% yet...what with the media and David Letterman in the tank for the big O.

Let me ask you a question. Do you truly believe that Romney doesn't care about 47% if the country? That's literally what you think he meant by those words?

How do you reconcile this with all of the charitable and spiritual work he's done over his lifetime...how do you reconcile this with the health plan he set up in Massachusetts that was put in place for EVERYONE?

Let me hear your thoughts on this...I'm very curious.

[bigmack]

Ever notice the volume of material hcap pulls from Mother Jones? Voluminous.



http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lecqtbvxZp1qe0eclo1_r5_500.gif
“What’s the most you ever lost on a coin toss?”

[hcap]

Kevin Drum specifically.

Does damn good charts. :lol:

[hcap]

I'm surprised he's not kissing 100% yet...what with the media and David Letterman in the tank for the big O.

Let me ask you a question. Do you truly believe that Romney doesn't care about 47% if the country? That's literally what you think he meant by those words?

How do you reconcile this with all of the charitable and spiritual work he's done over his lifetime...how do you reconcile this with the health plan he set up in Massachusetts that was put in place for EVERYONE?

Let me hear your thoughts on this...I'm very curious.The correlation of gaffes to odds is interesting in that chart. I think the whole republican talking point about "anchors" that is championed by Tom and others sums up the republican/Tea Party axis quite nicely.

[bigmack]

Kevin Drum specifically.

Does damn good charts. :lol:
We both know why you read that rag and it has to do with this cover.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/03/MOJO-July-August-Cover200x262.jpg

'79-'80, I'm workin' at a Medical Center in Missoula MT, night shift. Part of my job was to roll doobies for those enduring chemo to hep their appetite.

1AM I'm running from room to room stickin' j's in peoples mouths and lighting 'em.

It's medication time, I would say. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

The correlation of gaffes to odds is interesting in that chart. I think the whole republican talking point about "anchors" that is championed by Tom and others sums up the republican/Tea Party axis quite nicely.What questions or what part of my reply were you addressing?

I invite you to go back and read it again to catch what you missed.

[hcap]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157544/voters-reaction-romney-comments-tilts-negative.aspx


Voters' Reaction to Romney's "47%" Comments Tilts Negative

Independent voters, by 29% to 15%, also more negative than positive

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans have a more negative than positive immediate reaction to Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's comments, secretly caught on video, about the 47% of Americans whom he said are Obama supporters and dependent on the government. Thirty-six percent of voters say Romney's comments make them less likely to vote for him, while 20% say the remarks make them more likely to vote for him, and 43% say the comments won't make a difference.


http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/33es8l9-nuowsgzaufhozw.gif

[hcap]

What questions or what part of my reply were you addressing?

I invite you to go back and read it again to catch what you missed.

I have expressed my personal opinion on the "Romney Does It Again... " thread post #55

[lamboguy]

the foxnews poll has Romney dead buried and gone this morning, but thegreek.com still has this election -$340-$100, or no change from yesterday. interesting.......

[hcap]

the foxnews poll has Romney dead buried and gone this morning, but thegreek.com still has this election -$340-$100, or no change from yesterday. interesting.......

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/09/19/fox-news-poll-dems-lead-in-key-swing-states/

Fox News joined this week’s parade of polls showing President Obama opening up leads over Republican Mitt Romney in crucial swing states.

The Fox news survey puts Obama ahead of Romney by 7 percentage points among likely voters in Ohio, 49 to 42 percent, and in Virginia, 50 to 43 percent. In Florida, the president has a five-point advantage, 49 to 44 percent.

The poll also showed Democratic candidates leading Republicans in U.S. Senates races for the same three states — Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Fox also released a survey in which a majority of Hispanic Americans say the country is ready to elect a Hispanic president.

In the survey of 887 likely Latino voters, 48 percent believe U.S. voters would have been ready to elect a Latino president this year, while 40 percent said no and 12 percent were undecided.

[Ocala Mike]

It's time for Romney to find a phone booth and change into a superhero.

If he doesn't turn this thing around soon he's going to cause downticket problems.

[mountainman]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/09/19/fox-news-poll-dems-lead-in-key-swing-states/

Fox News joined this week’s parade of polls showing President Obama opening up leads over Republican Mitt Romney in crucial swing states.

The Fox news survey puts Obama ahead of Romney by 7 percentage points among likely voters in Ohio, 49 to 42 percent, and in Virginia, 50 to 43 percent. In Florida, the president has a five-point advantage, 49 to 44 percent.

The poll also showed Democratic candidates leading Republicans in U.S. Senates races for the same three states — Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Fox also released a survey in which a majority of Hispanic Americans say the country is ready to elect a Hispanic president.

In the survey of 887 likely Latino voters, 48 percent believe U.S. voters would have been ready to elect a Latino president this year, while 40 percent said no and 12 percent were undecided.

Bernie Goldberg, a conservative pundit, was on "the factor" last night and as much as called dick morris and carl rove a couple of crazies for predicting a big romney win. I couldn't agree more. To espouse a conservative doctrine and tout romney as the better candidate is one thing, but to stick your head in the sand and pretend it's looking good for him is something else entirely.

Like Goldberg, Charles Krauthammer put down the pom poms to inject a note of realism perhaps unpalatable to hopeful repubs. O'reilly, of course, hastened to conclude the interview.

[johnhannibalsmith]

... O'reilly, of course, hastened to conclude the interview.

I actually watched this somehow last night as I usually manage to miss the Factor. But to be fair, the guy that took more abuse than anyone was the cheerleader, Morris. I had no interest in what that Penguin looking snaggletooth had to say, but even still, O'Reilly was driving me nuts not letting Morris explain why he thought Republicans were in the driver's seat in the Congressional elections. It certainly wasn't the case that Morris was given some great latitude to wax poetic about the brilliance of Romney and Republicans and Goldberg and Krauthammer were comparatively stymied.

[BlueShoe]

Fox also released a survey in which a majority of Hispanic Americans say the country is ready to elect a Hispanic president.

In the survey of 887 likely Latino voters, 48 percent believe U.S. voters would have been ready to elect a Latino president this year, while 40 percent said no and 12 percent were undecided.
If Obama wins, and if we then still exist as a Republic in 2016, we just may have one in 2017, the junior Senator from Florida. If it is Romney, then Marco Rubio will wait until 2020 to run. He has widespread appeal and support among conservatives and moderates, although contrary to opinion, not all that popular with Mexican Americans. There is a division between conservative Cuban Americans and the more liberal Mexican Americans, and looking ahead, this could be a factor in a Rubio run for the top spot.

[mountainman]

I actually watched this somehow last night as I usually manage to miss the Factor. But to be fair, the guy that took more abuse than anyone was the cheerleader, Morris. I had no interest in what that Penguin looking snaggletooth had to say, but even still, O'Reilly was driving me nuts not letting Morris explain why he thought Republicans were in the driver's seat in the Congressional elections. It certainly wasn't the case that Morris was given some great latitude to wax poetic about the brilliance of Romney and Republicans and Goldberg and Krauthammer were comparatively stymied.

O'Reilly is a bully who likes to use Morris as a whipping boy. Alan Colmes is another guy who accepts abusive treatment on the factor in exchange for the exposure. O'Reilly rarely lets either of them finish a sentence. He's more respectful of rove and krauthammer.

Morris strikes me as a sharp guy who let his (probably justified) hatred of Hillary and his obvious desire for exposure drive him to lick republican boots. And it's a shame, because his experience and acumen make him uniquely qualified to give objective commentary. Instead, he has made himself a shill. It was sickening to see him grin last night when O'Reilly told him to "shut it."

[hcap]

If Obama wins, and if we then still exist as a Republic in 2016, we just may have one in 2017, the junior Senator from Florida. If it is Romney, then Marco Rubio will wait until 2020 to run. He has widespread appeal and support among conservatives and moderates, although contrary to opinion, not all that popular with Mexican Americans. There is a division between conservative Cuban Americans and the more liberal Mexican Americans, and looking ahead, this could be a factor in a Rubio run for the top spot.Don't forget if there still is a repug party, you guys always have 2096

[johnhannibalsmith]

I agree with pretty much everything. At this point, Morris generally makes me queasy he comes off as such a book-pushing sheister, but the attitude towards him last night was pathetic and his (lack of) response was even worse.

He has to be respectful of Krauthammer because there isn't much he can say to Krauthammer that is disagreeable that Krauthammer won't pull apart limb from limb and make him look like an idiot. I think even O'Reilly knows that his best plan for CK is just to either agree with everything or play the meekest devil's advocate ever and just allow him to pontificate. I'm actually surprised he allows him on the show, because unlike a Dennis Miller, he just has no "disagreement" rapport with the guy and CK seems to have no interest in feeding his ego.

[Tom]

Don't forget if there still is a repug party, you guys always have 2096

It will be called the Tea Party.

[Tom]

It's time for Romney to find a phone booth and change into a superhero.

If he doesn't turn this thing around soon he's going to cause downticket problems.

He has GOT to start attacking Obama and stop this nonsense of "He's a nice guy" and "He wants to help us"

NO he is not and he does not.
He is lying POS who is out to fundamentally change this country - his own words. And that means no great nation, no world power, no national security....Obama is the ENEMY and he needs to be treated as such.

[hcap]

It will be called the Tea Party.


http://www.vinmag.com/online/media/gbu0/prodlg/1058-alice-tea-party-card.jpg


FTFY

[hcap]

More Fox Polls like this one and it will be a lot of long faces at Fox News.

I remember election night 20o8. Long faces and dead silence for extended periods of time.



Even the yet to be next star at Faux openly weeped

http://cdn.crooksandliars.com/files/uploads/2010/03/BeckCrying_cab5b.jpg

[Tom]

Fixed what? :confused:

[horses4courses]

Don't forget if there still is a repug party, you guys always have 2096

I wouldn't even be so sure about that.
With minorities increasing in size, and registering to vote, even 2096 is dicey

[lamboguy]

this year looks like the republican's best shot, they are actually running against a beatable sitting president.

if i was Romney i would stop attacking, and start explaining his great ideas how he plans to make things better here, if he really has any in his tool box.

[hcap]

Fixed what? :confused:

The Mad Tea Party

The Hatter (called Hatta in Through the Looking-Glass) is a fictional character in Lewis Carroll's Alice's Adventures in Wonderland and the story's sequel Through the Looking-Glass. He is often referred to as the Mad Hatter, though this term was never used by Carroll.

..."Mad as a hatter

Although the name "Mad Hatter" was clearly done and inspired by the phrase "as mad as a hatter", there is some uncertainty as to the origins of this phrase. Mercury was used in the process of curing felt used in some hats, making it impossible for hatters to avoid inhaling the mercury fumes given off during the hat making process; hatters and mill workers thus often suffered mad hatter disease, mercury poisoning

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/40/MadlHatterByTenniel.svg/250px-MadlHatterByTenniel.svg.png

BTW, mercury poising was dismisses by the owners of the hat mills as just more..... socialist/community organizing/pinko/commie/Al Gore/moochers/anchor claptap.

We FTFY as well

[BlueShoe]

Alan Colmes is another guy who accepts abusive treatment on the factor in exchange for the exposure.
Colmes deserves all the abuse he gets and then some, he is a Marxist and is a fawning apologist for every blunder that the far left and the Obama administration has committed. This man belongs on MSNBC not Fox, and even there he would be to the left of many of their commentators. Since separating from Hannity he has unleashed his far left lunacy with renewed vigor.

[Tom]

He probably visits dominatrix types after work.

[PaceAdvantage]

I wouldn't even be so sure about that.
With minorities increasing in size, and registering to vote, even 2096 is diceyYou guys get hilarious when you think you've got it in the bag.

Back in 2008, the Republican party was declared dead and buried for DECADES (some even pontificated at least 100 years)...

Those who think like you were openly claiming Democrats ONLY would be elected from here on out...the congress LOCKED up for as long as the eye could see...

And yet a scant two years later, the Dems lose the House...

Pardon me if I don't put any stock in any of your gleeful prognostications.

[johnhannibalsmith]

You guys get hilarious when you think you've got it in the bag.

Back in 2008, the Republican party was declared dead and buried for DECADES (some even pontificated at least 100 years)...

Those who think like you were openly claiming Democrats ONLY would be elected from here on out...the congress LOCKED up for as long as the eye could see...

And yet a scant two years later, the Dems lose the House...

Pardon me if I don't put any stock in any of your gleeful prognostications.

Aside from which the platforms and platitudes that lure most of those voters under the umbrella don't tend to amount to much in terms of results over the long run. Ideas have to do more than sound good, they actually have to be functional at some point and be more than lip service. Swell sounding social positions may entice voters, but 2096 is a long time to actually retain those voters without some serious attention to governance over solicitation.

[Tom]

Our only hope if Odumbo gets re-elected is the Mayan Calendar.

[Rookies]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

The Fat Lady's not singing yet... but she's surely hovering in the sky over Philly...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GO3gPUn24FI

:D

[NJ Stinks]

You guys get hilarious when you think you've got it in the bag.



It's called busting chops. I believe more than a few on the right side of the aisle here may be familiar with the tactic. ;)

[lamboguy]

new line from thegreek.com the democrats are now -$360-$100

[bigmack]

I can't bare to watch anymo but the CONSTANT narrative o'er @ MSLSD at this point is that the ENTIRE Republican Party is distancing themselves from MR as he is unquestionably going down the toilet. :lol:

I swear some of those people have SERIOUS mental issues. Clearly, Larry's already gone. Although he did marry the chick who played the wife of Albert Brooks in Modern Romance.

So he's got THAT goin' for him.

http://img2.bdbphotos.com/images/orig/1/r/1rdhubd6t61vbu6r.jpg

[ElKabong]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Gallup: Romney 47%, Obama 47% (Registered voters)

[bigmack]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

Gallup: Romney 47%, Obama 47% (Registered voters)
All we need now are these to ferret out BO & JoeyB for what they are: posers.

Get a load of the mod's.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/CPD-2012PresidentialandVicePresidentialDebates_zps0186 f89a.png

[Valuist]

This thing isn't over by any stretch:

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-double-digit-lead-unskewed-data-from-reuters-ipsos-poll-1

[redshift1]

This thing isn't over by any stretch:

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-double-digit-lead-unskewed-data-from-reuters-ipsos-poll-1


Yes, a five point Obama lead really indicates a sweeping Romney victory
makes sense to me.


.

[Valuist]

Yes, a five point Obama lead really indicates a sweeping Romney victory
makes sense to me.

.

Obviously you didn't, or were uncapable of reading the entire article. Unskew the polls and Romney leads 54 to 44.

[redshift1]

Obviously you didn't, or were uncapable of reading the entire article. Unskew the polls and Romney leads 54 to 44.


"uncapable" not a word ...check

Dean Chambers not a pollster or statistician ...check

Examiner.com = conservative astrology ...check

Even the comment section in the Examiner ridicules Mr. Chance's Playstation3 statistical augury ...check

.

[Valuist]

"uncapable" not a word ...check

Dean Chambers not a pollster or statistician ...check

Examiner.com = conservative astrology ...check

Even the comment section in the Examiner ridicules Mr. Chance's Playstation3 statistical augury ...check

.

OK, so my finger slipped and hit the "u" instead of "i". Other than that, you haven't you proved anything. And citing a comment in the article means nothing. Every day, Yahoo News has articles ripping Romney and/or Ryan, and the comments tend to run about 5-1 against the writer of the article.

[bigmack]

Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

Dickie "Buy my book, PLEASE" Morris.
http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/

[hcap]

Dickie "Buy my book, PLEASE" Morris.
http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/

Real Clear

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html



48.1 44.8 Obama +3.3
Rasmussen Tracking 9/19 - 9/21 1500 LV 3.0 46 46 Tie
Gallup Tracking 9/15 - 9/21 3050 RV 2.0 47 47 Tie
National Journal 9/15 - 9/19 1055 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1
Hartford Courant/UConn 9/11 - 9/18 1186 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV 2.7 48 45 Obama +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 50 45 Obama +5
Pew Research/PSRAI 9/12 - 9/16 2268 LV 2.4 51 43 Obama +8

See All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling DataI think Dickieboy will not be posting here either starting 11/7 :cool:

[PaceAdvantage]

Interesting that the poll with the largest number of respondents and the lowest margin of error has them tied. Makes you wonder how two polls have them tied and some of the rest have Obama up by the margin of here to the moon...

Somebody is fibbing...or working the numbers...

[horses4courses]

gb7nwoQVkQE

[Tom]

Michelle is singing far too early!

[lamboguy]

new line from thegreek.com------the democrats are now -$380-$100

[lamboguy]

new line from thegreek.com the democrats are now -$400-$100

[PaceAdvantage]

Hah! :lol:

-1000 here we come...bet $1000 to win $100

When do we get the minus pool going?

[lamboguy]

Hah! :lol:

Come on man...there has to come a point when they have to stop taking money on this lead-pipe cinch lock...if nobody is betting Romney, they can't keep taking money on Obama forever...when will it end? :lol: :lol:i am waiting to step in before October 3.

i don't like either one of these guys, it looks like Obama is trying to run out the clock.

he don't say to much of anything either. both are real awful candidates.

[Jay Trotter]

Hah! :lol: I'm feeling good about locking in Obama at even money! :jump:

[lamboguy]

I'm feeling good about locking in Obama at even money! :jump:
who was stupid enough to give you that one?

[hcap]

Interesting that the poll with the largest number of respondents and the lowest margin of error has them tied. Makes you wonder how two polls have them tied and some of the rest have Obama up by the margin of here to the moon...

Somebody is fibbing...or working the numbers...The trend is beginning to become clear.
Still early and Romney has to pull a rabbit out of his ??????. I womder if he is going to thank Obama for calling him the grandfather of OnamaCare?Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 9/11 - 9/23 -- -- 48.6 44.9 Obama +3.7
Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/16 - 9/20 1000 LV 3.1 50 47 Obama +3
Rasmussen Tracking 9/21 - 9/23 1500 LV 3.0 47 46 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 9/16 - 9/22 3050 RV 2.0 48 46 Obama +2
National Journal 9/15 - 9/19 1055 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1
Hartford Courant/UConn 9/11 - 9/18 1186 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV 2.7 48 45 Obama +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 50 45 Obama +5
Pew Research/PSRAI 9/12 - 9/16 2268 LV 2.4 51 43 Obama +8

[Valuist]

new line from thegreek.com the democrats are now -$400-$100

The public is really pounding Obama. And the public has NEVER been wrong before, especially when it comes to wagering. :lol:

[horses4courses]

You have to think that Romney, with all his glowing charisma, is going to shine in the debates.......... :rolleyes:

[lamboguy]

The public is really pounding Obama. And the public has NEVER been wrong before, especially when it comes to wagering. :lol:i'd like to bet the odds come down to under 3-1 before the election.

[bigmack]

You have to think that Romney, with all his glowing charisma, is going to shine in the debates.......... :rolleyes:
Only people dumb enough as you would vote based on charisma.

See if lamboguy can give you pointers on how to con/cheat the healthcare system. He's had extensive experience.

[johnhannibalsmith]

You have to think that Romney, with all his glowing charisma, is going to shine in the debates.......... :rolleyes:

God bless charisma in politicians.

[horses4courses]

Only people dumb enough as you would vote based on charisma.

See if lamboguy can give you pointers on how to con/cheat the healthcare system. He's had extensive experience.

Welcome to the real world, BM.
If you think Joe and Jane Fence aren't influenced by who performs best on debate nights, you truly are mentally challenged.

For what it's worth, charisma doesn't really cut it with me, Cheech.
I'd vote for a corpse with liberal principles over a republican.

* Update on UK odds - starting to see plenty of -5.00, and higher.

[hcap]

Only people dumb enough as you would vote based on charisma.

See if lamboguy can give you pointers on how to con/cheat the healthcare system. He's had extensive experience.Whereas the lack of charisma of both members of the dynamic duo is?

[bigmack]

Welcome to the real world, BM.
If you don't think Joe and Jane Fence aren't influenced by who performs best on debate nights, you truly are mentally challenged.

For what it's worth, charisma doesn't really cut it with me, Cheech.
I'd vote for a corpse with liberal principles over a republican.
3 quick pernts:

- You've GOT a corpse with liberal principles. An inept, constantly campaigning corpse. BO.

- I've been saying wait for debates and you're insinuating I don't realize the value of debates on undecides? :D

- Shouldn't have used charisma then I guess, huh?


Other than that, you're making a boat load of sense. :rolleyes:

[ArlJim78]

charisma is mandatory for cult leaders, con men and clueless teleprompter readers.
not as important for people with actual experience and accomplishments.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...
If you think Joe and Jane Fence aren't influenced by who performs best on debate nights, you truly are mentally challenged.

...

And those that consider the recipient of "Most Charismatic Award" the default premier performer in a debate also fit the second portion of that statement.

But I suppose that you are correct in your implied assessment of most voters.

[Valuist]

i'd like to bet the odds come down to under 3-1 before the election.

I would agree with you on that.

Any real bettor won't take over minus 200 on anything. The risk to reward just doesn't justify it.

[Tom]

I'd vote for a corpse with liberal principles over a republican.
What a coincidence, many CORPSES vote that way, too, especially in Chicago!

Is a death certificate good enough for voter ID? :eek:

[horses4courses]

I would agree with you on that.

Any real bettor won't take over minus 200 on anything. The risk to reward just doesn't justify it.

Any real bettor that won't lay odds on waking up tomorrow morning needs to quit gambling - and everything else.

[Valuist]

Any real bettor that won't lay odds on waking up tomorrow morning needs to quit gambling - and everything else.

They're always locks on paper, aren't they? Secretariat couldn't possibly lose to Onion. No way Buster Douglas could beat Tyson. The Rams, off a 4-12 season, to win the Super Bowl? The 1969 Mets. I could go on and on but in unskewed polls, Obama has no edge.

[horses4courses]

They're always locks on paper, aren't they? Secretariat couldn't possibly lose to Onion. No way Buster Douglas could beat Tyson. The Rams, off a 4-12 season, to win the Super Bowl? The 1969 Mets. I could go on and on but in unskewed polls, Obama has no edge.

So, you're saying that nobody can truly assess what stands a 67%, or better, chance of winning, and that no one should lay -2.00 or higher?

[Valuist]

So, you're saying that nobody can truly assess what stands a 67%, or better, chance of winning, and that no one should lay -2.00 or higher?

THEY can. I choose not to. I've bet plenty of baseball games. Never lay more than 180. If I like the team but they are minus 195, I would pass the game.

[lamboguy]

THEY can. I choose not to. I've bet plenty of baseball games. Never lay more than 180. If I like the team but they are minus 195, I would pass the game.
your way is not a bad way to travel. an old timer used to remind me that if you alway's bet the underdog, you can never be on the wrong favorite.

this election, even though the price has continuously moved up, could be a prime example of the wrong favorite,

the day of the election, Kerry was -$300-$100 over Bush. the people betting based their action that day on mis-informed exit polls.

[Valuist]

your way is not a bad way to travel. an old timer used to remind me that if you alway's bet the underdog, you can never be on the wrong favorite.

this election, even though the price has continuously moved up, could be a prime example of the wrong favorite,

the day of the election, Kerry was -$300-$100 over Bush. the people betting based their action that day on mis-informed exit polls.

Great example. I had forgotten the moneyline on the 2004 election and would never have guessed it was that high.

[lamboguy]

i can tell you another story. i was out in vegas when Mcneilly fought Tyson. Tyson could knock this bum out with one hand whenever he wanted to . there was a deal from Showtime that if the fight didn't go 4 rounds the people at home didn't have to pay to watch the thing.

i am sitting at the racebook at the mirage and bump into Vinnie Vechione, who was a horse trainer from New England and happened to be Mcneilly's trainer for this fight. he wanted me to bet UNDER the rounds for him, the line was 2 1/2 rounds. naturally i said no f--ing way i am doing that for you. but i bet it for myself, while every living human from here to shang-hai was betting these hotel's the over.

the fight starts and Vechione throws the towel into the ring in the first round. the kid went down on the mat from a phantom punch. Tyson is looking around the ring shrugging his shoulder's.

[Jay Trotter]

who was stupid enough to give you that one?Well, let's just say there is always fish in the pond! :jump:

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

the fight starts and Vechione throws the towel into the ring in the first round. the kid went down on the mat from a phantom punch. Tyson is looking around the ring shrugging his shoulder's.

Come on. McNeely came out like a man possessed, intent on trying to beat Tyson at his own game by brawling at him from the word go. He went down once early that looked like a slip, well, an off-balance topple from a right, and he jumped up and didn't even want to take the standing eight. He came right after Tyson again and Tyson absorbed a few shots and landed some big shots every time the guy opened himself up. McNeeley NEVER gave in - he was basically out on his feet after a big combo and then took a mean uppercut that dropped him to his knees. Still, he bounced back up and looked like he was on another planet and his corner just jumped in before he got murdered.

I'm not sure where you came with the "phantom punch" theory - the guy was overmatched, tried to brawl with a guy that was a much better brawler, and got his ass kicked trying. He would have kept on going if they hadn't stepped in. I remember the corner taking a lot of shit for stopping it when their fighter was doing his best impression of Rocky IV, but considering that the guy threw it all out on the line from the opening bell and couldn't make it two minutes before he was basically catatonic - it's hard to argue with them making sure he didn't end up like Benny Paret considering the fight was for all intents and purposes, over before it started and only got worse from there.

[Valuist]

Here's the updated unskewed numbers. Ironic that Romney's smallest lead is in the Fox News poll:

http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/unskewed-polls-show-nearly-8-point-romney-lead/?cat_orig=politics

[horses4courses]

Here's the updated unskewed numbers. Ironic that Romney's smallest lead is in the Fox News poll:

http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/unskewed-polls-show-nearly-8-point-romney-lead/?cat_orig=politics

Yep....that sums it all up.
A completely fair and balanced assessment of the electoral situation, or "unskewed", as they say. How could everyone else be so wrong?
Thanks for sharing - very enlightening. :rolleyes:
Keep taking the tablets......

[Tom]

Enjoy today....this is the point, the next 7 days, where Romney takes off, moving like a tremendous machine, opening up by 13, 15, 17......21 points.
Obama will need to sprout wings to catch him!

[lamboguy]

Come on. McNeely came out like a man possessed, intent on trying to beat Tyson at his own game by brawling at him from the word go. He went down once early that looked like a slip, well, an off-balance topple from a right, and he jumped up and didn't even want to take the standing eight. He came right after Tyson again and Tyson absorbed a few shots and landed some big shots every time the guy opened himself up. McNeeley NEVER gave in - he was basically out on his feet after a big combo and then took a mean uppercut that dropped him to his knees. Still, he bounced back up and looked like he was on another planet and his corner just jumped in before he got murdered.

I'm not sure where you came with the "phantom punch" theory - the guy was overmatched, tried to brawl with a guy that was a much better brawler, and got his ass kicked trying. He would have kept on going if they hadn't stepped in. I remember the corner taking a lot of shit for stopping it when their fighter was doing his best impression of Rocky IV, but considering that the guy threw it all out on the line from the opening bell and couldn't make it two minutes before he was basically catatonic - it's hard to argue with them making sure he didn't end up like Benny Paret considering the fight was for all intents and purposes, over before it started and only got worse from there.well all i can say to that is there was nothing phantom about Vechione throwing in the towel and the Nevada Boxing commission holding up Mcneily's purse for 6 months before paying him was nothing phantom. also the non-payment of the purse to Vechione was nothing phantom either

[lamboguy]

if anyone caught the Clinton initiative today you would have seen Bill Clinton praise Romney for his past deeds in his initiative. he only had a few words for Romney, but they were pretty powerful in my estimation. he didn't endorse Romney, but he went as far as he could without doing just that.

my guess is that uncle Bill is voting for Romney

[johnhannibalsmith]

well all i can say to that is there was nothing phantom about Vechione throwing in the towel and the Nevada Boxing commission holding up Mcneily's purse for 6 months before paying him was nothing phantom. also the non-payment of the purse to Vechione was nothing phantom either

Different topic than a phantom punch. They entered the ring illegally and caused a DQ. The towel wasn't thrown, the corner stormed the ring while the ref was trying to get Tyson to a neutral corner.

If you want to make the case that they bet on the fight, fine - that's not a winning argument in either direction and I'm not interested. But you alleged that the guy took a dive from a punch that never landed. That's just not the case. I'm sure it's available on YouTube to watch since its always on the "Best Of..." videos on ESPN Classic. There's absolutely nothing in that fight to suggest that NcNeely feigned injury or took a "phantom punch" and stayed down. IF anything, he's foolishly seeking out more punishment after both knockdowns. The contention about chicanery on the part of his team is an entirely different subject and had nothing to do with my reply.

[mostpost]

Here's the updated unskewed numbers. Ironic that Romney's smallest lead is in the Fox News poll:

http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/unskewed-polls-show-nearly-8-point-romney-lead/?cat_orig=politics

You must be really desperate. You quote a story from a crackpot right winger like Jerome Corsi, writing at a crackpot right wing website like WND about a crackpot theory that the polls are biased and expect us not to laugh at you.

These guys said that Democrats were over represented in the current polls because of the heavy turnout for Obama in 2008. Instead they used the 2010 election as their base. But I think the 2010 election was the anomaly.

In any case, I don't think pollsters use any one election as a model. If you did that you would always have results that were similar to the most recent election. I know Corsi says that is what is happening and that is one more reason I Think the whole think is bunkum.

[mostpost]

Enjoy today....this is the point, the next 7 days, where Romney takes off, moving like a tremendous machine, opening up by 13, 15, 17......21 points.
Obama will need to sprout wings to catch him!
Do not jump out of an airplane with that theory as your parachute, or you will need to sprout wings.

[GameTheory]

In any case, I don't think pollsters use any one election as a model. That is what they do, pretty much. The "unskewed" numbers are skewed in the other direction, but most of the published polls are still seriously flawed. My personal analysis tells me it is tied nationally, but with Romney likely to win certain key swing states (Florida, Ohio), but maybe not enough to put him over -- can't tell yet.

Obama did have a convention bump that disappeared, but in the last day or so has gotten another small bump -- if that is from Romney's 47% comments that will probably also disappear, or maybe it will break for Obama which it did around this time in 2008. Barring any huge events, I think the final result will be set in stone after debate #1 next week, but it is not yet determined.

My theory of course is that the economy predicts the election, period. And so on that Obama loses, period. All else is distraction, and it is extremely easy to get distracted. So this will be a good election to test that theory, because at the moment most people would say that Obama is likely to win, but I say that can't happen. Of course my other theory is that no one can predict the future, and it is folly to think otherwise.

[Valuist]

You must be really desperate. You quote a story from a crackpot right winger like Jerome Corsi, writing at a crackpot right wing website like WND about a crackpot theory that the polls are biased and expect us not to laugh at you.

These guys said that Democrats were over represented in the current polls because of the heavy turnout for Obama in 2008. Instead they used the 2010 election as their base. But I think the 2010 election was the anomaly.

In any case, I don't think pollsters use any one election as a model. If you did that you would always have results that were similar to the most recent election. I know Corsi says that is what is happening and that is one more reason I Think the whole think is bunkum.


You actually think that 2010, and not 2008, was the anomaly? You'd better get a dictionary because you clearly don't know what that word means. No way do the young people turn out like they did in 2008. There was a buzz about Obama then; nothing now. There's one energized group for this election and its not the young people. Its the tea party.

[redshift1]

You actually think that 2010, and not 2008, was the anomaly? You'd better get a dictionary because you clearly don't know what that word means. No way do the young people turn out like they did in 2008. There was a buzz about Obama then; nothing now. There's one energized group for this election and its not the young people. Its the tea party.

From most accounts the tea party eschews Romney's middle of the road conservatism, not a positive sign for Romney's presidential bid. What's worse the TP is focusing on the congressional elections to the financial detriment of republican presidential funding.

Probably your best hope now is a substantive showing by Romney in the debates otherwise the polls will continue to show a widening gap between the candidates.

.

[bigmack]

What's worse the TP is focusing on the congressional elections to the financial detriment of republican presidential funding.
Let me get this straight, you think Mitt is hurting for campaign dollars?

[redshift1]

Let me get this straight, you think Mitt is hurting for campaign dollars?

No, you said that.


Here's one example, there are many to pick from.

http://articles.boston.com/2012-06-06/nation/32058519_1_presidential-race-pac-congressional-races

[bigmack]

No, you said that.
From your "to the financial detriment of republican presidential funding."

But if you want to play semantics be my Christopher Guest.

Look at those Tea Party, racist, MF'rs still jazzed and on the frontlines. They're still around and OccupyWS is in a variety of parents basements.

What a nutty few years it's been. Here come the debates.

This should be good. :ThmbUp:

[hcap]

Maybe Romney's numbers now in swing states are in the crapper, is because adverting in those key states is looking like this....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/25/barack-obama-advertising_n_1913430.html

WASHINGTON -- In the biggest media markets in two electoral-vote-rich swing states, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's advertising efforts have been crushed by those of President Barack Obama's reelection campaign.

A review of political ad contracts with broadcast television stations in the top five media markets in Florida -- Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa and West Palm Beach -- and the top three markets in Ohio -- Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus -- show Obama's campaign running 10,000 more ads than Romney's campaign from the beginning of August through the middle of September. (We counted ad contracts that started any time between Aug. 1 and Sept. 19, 2012.)




On a related note there have been rumors of Paul Ryan referring to Mitt as "stench" at least that's what MSNBC says. How do you guys feel about MSNBC? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81618.html?hp=l1

[Valuist]

Maybe Romney's numbers now in swing states are in the crapper, is because adverting in those key states is looking like this....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/25/barack-obama-advertising_n_1913430.html

WASHINGTON -- In the biggest media markets in two electoral-vote-rich swing states, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's advertising efforts have been crushed by those of President Barack Obama's reelection campaign.

A review of political ad contracts with broadcast television stations in the top five media markets in Florida -- Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa and West Palm Beach -- and the top three markets in Ohio -- Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus -- show Obama's campaign running 10,000 more ads than Romney's campaign from the beginning of August through the middle of September. (We counted ad contracts that started any time between Aug. 1 and Sept. 19, 2012.)




On a related note there have been rumors of Paul Ryan referring to Mitt as "stench" at least that's what MSNBC says. How do you guys feel about MSNBC? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81618.html?hp=l1

I have DISH Network and they don't even consider MSNBC worthy to be part of their 100 channel package. Think that sums up MSNBC.

[hcap]

I have DISH Network and they don't even consider MSNBC worthy to be part of their 100 channel package. Think that sums up MSNBC.I guess DISH should consider letting you tune in to the Gallup Channel so you can watch what the MSNBC pundits will be gloating over today.....

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/258793-gallup-obama-stretches-lead-to-6-points-nationally

Gallup daily poll shows Obama stretching lead to 50-44 over Romney.

I can just imagine the moping and long faces over at Faux. :lol: :lol:

[Actor]

The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong nor the election to Obama but that's the way to bet. :)

[Valuist]

The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong nor the election to Obama but that's the way to bet. :)

Nobody with a brain lays 350 or 375 or whatever it is. I don't care what event you are talking about; only an idiot would take that risk/reward.

[Rookies]

Shredding Mittens by a 10% advantage in Ohio & Florida, now.:eek:
That Fat Lady's gargling and will be approaching the podium soon.

At this juncture, I'm still sticking to a sweep of all the "Toss Ups", except N.C.

[horses4courses]

Shredding Mittens by a 10% advantage in Ohio & Florida, now.:eek:
That Fat Lady's gargling and will be approaching the podium soon.

At this juncture, I'm still sticking to a sweep of all the "Toss Ups", except N.C.

Numbers seem to get worse by the day for Romney BUT
if that doesn't inspire the GOP to get their people to the polls, nothing will.

[elysiantraveller]

I guess DISH should consider letting you tune in to the Gallup Channel so you can watch what the MSNBC pundits will be gloating over today.....

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/258793-gallup-obama-stretches-lead-to-6-points-nationally

Gallup daily poll shows Obama stretching lead to 50-44 over Romney.

I can just imagine the moping and long faces over at Faux. :lol: :lol:

Obama has also outspent Romney 2-1 and 3-1 on negative advertising. The Romney campaign has been sitting on cash...

Everyone talking about the odds and polls is just amazing... they mean absolutely nothing...

[Jay Trotter]

Nobody with a brain lays 350 or 375 or whatever it is. I don't care what event you are talking about; only an idiot would take that risk/reward.This may true or not -- I don't know; but would you agree that "only an idiot" would make a bet straight-up on a wager that the books are laying 350 on?

[lamboguy]

those bookmaker's that drive brand new cadilac's must be real dopes!

[hcap]

Obama has also outspent Romney 2-1 and 3-1 on negative advertising. The Romney campaign has been sitting on cash...

Everyone talking about the odds and polls is just amazing... they mean absolutely nothing...Tell that to to a long list of republican pundits. Bll Kristol said it was a possibility that Speaker Pelosi might be weildi1ng the gavel come the 7th

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/09/bill-kristol-sounds-house-alarm-136500.html


Negative advertising is not the problem. An almost dead in the water campaign is. Mr Excitement is a dud

[bigmack]

This may true or not -- I don't know; but would you agree that "only an idiot" would make a bet straight-up on a wager that the books are laying 350 on?
Speaking of idiots, what a clown you are.

[hcap]

bigmack.......


Speaking of idiots.






Are you goin' to be here on the 7th?

[ArlJim78]

Tell that to to a long list of republican pundits. Bll Kristol said it was a possibility that Speaker Pelosi might be weildi1ng the gavel come the 7th

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/09/bill-kristol-sounds-house-alarm-136500.html


Negative advertising is not the problem. An almost dead in the water campaign is. Mr Excitement is a dud
where is the long list of Republican pundits? I see Bill Kristols name but he hardly qualifies.

[Rookies]

Speaking of idiots, what a clown you are.

Ahhhhh... got it... Jay's outing YOU! :lol:

Hey, how 'bout posting some more Mittens Wonderbread, mangacake pix ?

I waxin' nostalgic...:lol: :D

[hcap]

where is the long list of Republican pundits? I see Bill Kristols name but he hardly qualifies.

The link was for Kristol. The long list is all over the news, and it is even noos on Faux.
Which btw has Obama up 7

Oh, so now Kristol is not a conservative?
I believe that was the same reason conservatives gave on why George W failed.

Convenient.

Face it, don't look too promising for the dynamic duo.

[ElKabong]

Shredding Mittens by a 10% advantage in Ohio & Florida, now.:eek:
That Fat Lady's gargling and will be approaching the podium soon.

At this juncture, I'm still sticking to a sweep of all the "Toss Ups", except N.C.

Being a betting man that knows a sucker when I see one, I'll take Mitt + 10% in Ohio and Florida. $1,000USD, each state. PM me if you think that poll is accurate and you're confident enough to bet it

This offer is for you & only you.

[ElKabong]

those bookmaker's that drive brand new cadilac's must be real dopes!

That's b/c they cut off winners (aka "graduation papers" = money handed over on "your last bet with me"). Either that, or they mirror the winners bets

[bigmack]

Being a betting man that knows a sucker when I see one, I'll take Mitt + 10% in Ohio and Florida. $1,000USD, each state. PM me if you think that poll is accurate and you're confident enough to bet it

This offer is for you & only you.
Go ahead and do it, Captain Kangaroo. (Rookies)

Show us what a bold genius you are. :lol:

[Rookies]

Go ahead and do it, Captain Kangaroo. (Rookies)

Show us what a bold genius you are. :lol:

Ok, Greenhorn:

1) The request is illegal here.

2) I also know how to size up a wager, Mr. I-don't-know-anyone-that-bets-on- the-Masters.

That spread (+10%) doesn't get rated at +100 on the ML-rube!