Capper Al
07-20-2012, 04:25 PM
Exotic I: If your second choice B out of your top four picks, A-B-C-D, was going off at 15 to 1 and the other three, A-C-D, were all even money or more favorites -- how would you play it?
Top choice: 16 out of 53 would play 6 units to on B and 2 units (A-C-D) + B.
Second choice: 13 out of 53 would play 2 units B+(A-C-D) and (A-C-D)+B.
I agree with the top choice. There isn't a need to take on other horses on top if your pick is 15/1.
Exotic II: If both your B and C choices out of your top four picks, A-B-C-D, were going off at 12 to 1 and the other two, A-D, were even money or more favorites -- how would you play it?
Top Choice: 11 out of 29 would play (B-C) + (A-B-C-D) and (A-B-C-D) + (B-C).
Second Choice: 6 out of 29 would play an Exacta Box (A-B-C-D).
I voted for Win B-C and (A-B-C-D) + (B-C) reasoning still that the top horses had sufficient odds and wouldn't need the added risk of including other horses. This reasoning works for Exotic I, but now I have come to change my mind and agree with the top choice here. The new thinking is that with two horses on top, the win payoff drops while with two longshots on top of an exacta the larger payoff becomes more likely.
Thanks to those who voted in the polls.
Top choice: 16 out of 53 would play 6 units to on B and 2 units (A-C-D) + B.
Second choice: 13 out of 53 would play 2 units B+(A-C-D) and (A-C-D)+B.
I agree with the top choice. There isn't a need to take on other horses on top if your pick is 15/1.
Exotic II: If both your B and C choices out of your top four picks, A-B-C-D, were going off at 12 to 1 and the other two, A-D, were even money or more favorites -- how would you play it?
Top Choice: 11 out of 29 would play (B-C) + (A-B-C-D) and (A-B-C-D) + (B-C).
Second Choice: 6 out of 29 would play an Exacta Box (A-B-C-D).
I voted for Win B-C and (A-B-C-D) + (B-C) reasoning still that the top horses had sufficient odds and wouldn't need the added risk of including other horses. This reasoning works for Exotic I, but now I have come to change my mind and agree with the top choice here. The new thinking is that with two horses on top, the win payoff drops while with two longshots on top of an exacta the larger payoff becomes more likely.
Thanks to those who voted in the polls.