A question for online poker players and ADW bettors.

[Robert Goren]

If you were 21 years old and in college or just out of college and you looking for a way to supplement your income by gambling, would you choose online poker or betting the ponies or some other form of gambling and why?

[davew]

is this a yes or no question, or choose your alternative?

I would choose buying/selling on eBay as my preference of gambling - why?

I was in college 25 years ago, and did the things you mentioned - then there was more expense involved getting to a track (travel, admission, program, form, extra data) or to a casino (travel / stay in Vegas /Reno) - it sure is easier / less expensive now to do those things - and either they have changed or I was slightly uninformed / overconfident. I really like how now I can started and bet /play within 3 minutes deciding hey lets play some horses/poker/blackjack.

But the eBay alternative was not available - I could do swap meets or collectible (gun,coin,stamp,sportscard,comic,starwars,....) shows, but frequency and travel limited how often and increased cost of doing them.

Having and doing them all, the eBay alternative is the easiest method to supplement income (for me, now) on a consistent level - the other sources have nets that come in 'slugs' with periods of slow drains to cash/bankroll.

ps, thx for mentioning the Tilt series in a thread about Luck, I have watched a couple shows on you-tube but now will be using my next 3 Netflix selections to see Tilt season1 - how long did this show last?

[Kevroc]

If you were 21 years old and in college or just out of college and you looking for a way to supplement your income by gambling, would you choose online poker or betting the ponies or some other form of gambling and why?

The landscape has changed but, between 2003-2008ish online poker was the way to go. It wasn't hard to eek out a profit and with bonuses (called bonus whoring) you could do quite well.

Maybe someday we'll see that boom again here in the states.

paging thaskalos

[DeltaLover]

Any form of gambling, including poker, horses, binary options, day trading, lotto and keno should never be seen as an income to supplement especially in the young age of 21!

Despite the fact that some of this forms of gambling (namely poker and horse betting) can in theory be beaten the practical requirements are so demanding that make it statistically impossible for a young kid to posses the skill, bankroll, discipline and experience to have a realistic expectation of positive results....

Without a doubt I would advice the kid to stick with his college and his career than fall in the fallacy of becoming a professional gambler.... The odds are way much better!!

[Jay Trotter]

18-year old had 'em buzzing (http://www.assiniboiadowns.com/the-insider-archives-page.cfm?id=281)
click link for story

Here's a young man paying his way through University
with his winnings from the track.

This young man is a PaceAdvantage member

***
(http://18-year-old%20has%20%27em%20buzzing%20)

[Richie]

my 20 yr nephew is in college, poker is big, nobody play horses anymore at that age, when poker goes online, you'll really see a decline in racing

[JBmadera]

Futures trading.

[windoor]

18-year old had 'em buzzing (http://www.assiniboiadowns.com/the-insider-archives-page.cfm?id=281)
click link for story

Here's a young man paying his way through University
with his winnings from the track.

This young man is a PaceAdvantage member

***
(http://18-year-old%20has%20%27em%20buzzing%20)


Record keeping, Patience and Discipline:

Funny how that formula keeps coming up.

Oh so true.

Windoor

[Bettowin]

Sell "medical" marijuana:)

[PaceAdvantage]

Despite the fact that some of this forms of gambling (namely poker and horse betting) can in theory be beaten... You don't feel trading can be "beaten?" It just might be the easiest of the three in my opinion...

[thaskalos]

Any form of gambling, including poker, horses, binary options, day trading, lotto and keno should never be seen as an income to supplement especially in the young age of 21!

Despite the fact that some of this forms of gambling (namely poker and horse betting) can in theory be beaten the practical requirements are so demanding that make it statistically impossible for a young kid to posses the skill, bankroll, discipline and experience to have a realistic expectation of positive results....

Without a doubt I would advice the kid to stick with his college and his career than fall in the fallacy of becoming a professional gambler.... The odds are way much better!!

Yes Delta Lover...we all agree.

But, in all fairness, Robert Goren said nothing about the kid becoming a "professional gambler". It was assumed that the kid already had a job...and was looking for a way to supplement his income in his spare time.

Even 21-year olds have hobbies, you know...and there have been plenty of young people who have started playing online poker as a hobby, and were able to turn it into a lucrative career in a relatively short period of time. Some have even gotten rich; I know because I am well acquainted with two of them.

I don't normally encourage young people to get into gambling, but if they are going to do it anyway...online poker is the way to go.

It's so convenient that it fits every schedule...you can start playing for very small stakes, in order to keep your "tuition" cost to a minimum...and if it turns out that you have what it takes -- then the sky is the limit..LITERALLY!

I suppose the kid could supplement his income by getting a second job...but that's hardly the life for a 21-year old, IMO. At that age...we should be allowed to dream.

Like the man said..."money won is twice as sweet as money earned"...

If online poker were only legal... :(

[maclr11]

I've grown up with both worlds. Online poker and the racetrack. Though I prefer the racetrack, a way larger percentage of my friends play online poker, since its legal in Canada. That being said it's way more common for my friends to spend money gambling on single nights at a casino like blackjack or roulette, or sports gambling through BoDog or the Proline run by the government. If you asked 18 yr olds here who was gonna win the Habs and Blackhawks friday night, theyd tell you the right answer more than they could with A/8 off in the cutoff, with no raisers in front.
Tuition is also lower here, so cash isn't as tight for some, though everyone is still saving and saving, but I'd say it goes.

1) Sports Gambling
2) Casino
3) VLTS
4) Online Poker
.....
15) Horse Racing

That's my take, but I'll choose the ponies anyday. You can see Jay's post for that reason. haha
That's just ho

[appistappis]

If it helps in your decision, legal, vegas style sports betting will be in canada within six months. Good bye proline.

[Robert Goren]

I want to make one thing clear, I would never advise a young person to become a professional gambler. It is very tough way of life even if you are very good at it.

[Tom]

Poker.
I would not look at horse racing if I were 18 today and starting out fresh.
Why would I?

To read about the game, it is fixed, crooked, and they are cruel to horses.
Not a game I would look at getting into.

[badcompany]

I'll go with "None of the above."


But, if I'd have to pick one, I'll go with poker.

With trading you need a decent sized bankroll to get going and then it's highly unlikely that you're gonna make $$ immediately. There's almost invariably some "tuition" to be paid. There sure was for me.

Horse racing also has a learning curve which makes profits from the get go improbable, especially considering the state of the game and the inflated takeouts.

Poker, while not easy, allows a player to gain experience at low level games without having to make a major investment.

[thearmada]

I am within this age range as suggested here. I personally love the horses and would much rather bet on them than anything else. Personally of all gambling I have made my most money playing blackjack, then horses, then poker. I only can take so much card playing, but I can sit and watch the races for hours and hours.

For most of my friends they would probably bet either sports or on poker/cards. The reason? The games are easier to pick up and turn a profit off of and there is much more action. They would also bet sports because they follow sports much more than anything else days. Also with poker they can just sit around and play video games and wait till a good hand comes and not have to study a race in order to bet.

I wish more people my age would get into it like I do.

[Robert Goren]

I am somewhat surpised that no one mentioned that it is nearly impossible these days to make money as part time horse player. The amount of time it takes to locate a high ROI betting situlations is enormous. I suppose that you can write/buy a computer program to do a lot of the grunt work, even then you are going to spend a lot of time on it. I am sure someplace somewhere somebody has a computer that scans the PPs , locates a likely winner and makes the bet for them if the odds are right, but for most players that's a pipe dream.
We are talking making money here. For many horse players, it is thrill of the hunt that keeps them going not the actual making of money.

[mannyberrios]

I am somewhat surpised that no one mentioned that it is nearly impossible these days to make money as part time horse player. The amount of time it takes to locate a high ROI betting situlations is enormous. I suppose that you can write/buy a computer program to do a lot of the grunt work, even then you are going to spend a lot of time on it. I am sure someplace somewhere somebody has a computer that scans the PPs , locates a likely winner and makes the bet for them if the odds are right, but for most players that's a pipe dream.
We are talking making money here. For many horse players, it is thrill of the hunt that keeps them going not the actual making of money.
Impossible for you

[Robert Goren]

Impossible for you I actually showed a small net gain for 2012 thanks to a thread I did last summer on betting against bridge jumpers. Very small. The interest on SS disabilty checking deposit account was bigger, but it was a net gain. The ROI was about +$0.005 per hour.

[DeltaLover]

You don't feel trading can be "beaten?" It just might be the easiest of the three in my opinion...


In my comment I am mentioning binary options and day trading.

Binary options are comparable to any other form of gambling following a Bernoulli distribution (like craps or roulette) with a fix take out and as such it is impossible to beat.

Day trading in the form that was popularized in late '90s pretty much represents a form of gambling based in the well known fallacy of pattern identification (like baccarat players who try to predict the next hand based in the previous)....

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/columnist/krantz/2006-01-31-day-trading_x.htm



Can 'trading' in general be beaten ?

The answer is clearly yes, The catch is that the very few who can beat the markets, besides their talent, experience and education they usually represent some form of an institutional investment having access to data, technology and personnel that no individual investor can even dream of.

Even having this type of support some of the top hedge funds have been accused for illegal operations (like inside info) something that proves the difficulty of the task...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/13/phone-hacking-scandal-hits-hedge-funds

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/the-hedgefund-scandal-rocking-wall-street-2232998.html

More than this we have plenty of examples of traders who at once were considered markets wizards eventually loosing huge amounts of money like for example Nicholas Maounis:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaranth_Advisors

[hencicleva]

I am somewhat surpised that no one mentioned that it is nearly impossible these days to make money as part time horse player. The amount of time it takes to locate a high ROI betting situlations is enormous. I suppose that you can write/buy a computer program to do a lot of the grunt work, even then you are going to spend a lot of time on it. I am sure someplace somewhere somebody has a computer that scans the PPs , locates a likely winner and makes the bet for them if the odds are right, but for most players that's a pipe dream.
We are talking making money here. For many horse players, it is thrill of the hunt that keeps them going not the actual making of money.

I wouldn't dispute any of this. Why is it getting harder to make a profit at the horses today? I get the impression that the consensus opinion is the steep decline in "dumb" money as horse racing declines in popularity. However, our real enemies are the whales...large teams of people with massive computing power. But through computers we do at least have access to all the data that they do.

Getting back to your original question, I think that as a 21 year old I would be seduced by the absolutely massive amounts of money that you can make in horse racing if you do get a winning computerized handicapping system.

Perhaps not a perfect analogy, but look at lotteries. It's not the likelyhood of winning but the huge amounts you could win that draws people in.

[badcompany]

In my comment I am mentioning binary options and day trading.

Binary options are comparable to any other form of gambling following a Bernoulli distribution (like craps or roulette) with a fix take out and as such it is impossible to beat.

Day trading in the form that was popularized in late '90s pretty much represents a form of gambling based in the well known fallacy of pattern identification (like baccarat players who try to predict the next hand based in the previous)....

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/columnist/krantz/2006-01-31-day-trading_x.htm



Can 'trading' in general be beaten ?

The answer is clearly yes, The catch is that the very few who can beat the markets, besides their talent, experience and education they usually represent some form of an institutional investment having access to data, technology and personnel that no individual investor can even dream of.

Even having this type of support some of the top hedge funds have been accused for illegal operations (like inside info) something that proves the difficulty of the task...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/13/phone-hacking-scandal-hits-hedge-funds

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/the-hedgefund-scandal-rocking-wall-street-2232998.html

More than this we have plenty of examples of traders who at once were considered markets wizards eventually loosing huge amounts of money like for example Nicholas Maounis:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaranth_Advisors

The reason the "Wizards" go bust is the same reason that the non-wizards do, they overbet their bankroll, vis a vis leverage.

My Position Sizing thread addresses the psychological reasons why this happens.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=91058

[JBmadera]

The reason the "Wizards" go bust is the same reason that the non-wizards do, they overbet their bankroll, vis a vis leverage.

My Position Sizing thread addresses the psychological reasons why this happens.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=91058


I was going to post something similar. I have been eking out a decent existence trading futures and the real key has been to minimize leverage.

[PaceAdvantage]

Plenty of "professional" big name poker players go bust all the time...but you never see that side of the game on ESPN

[badcompany]

Plenty of "professional" big name poker players go bust all the time...but you never see that side of the game on ESPN

Another deceptive thing the Poker shows do is equate "Tournament" winnings with Profit.

That a player cashed 100k at tourneys tells you nothing about how much he won, or lost that year.

[Robert Goren]

Plenty of "professional" big name poker players go bust all the time...but you never see that side of the game on ESPNThat is true, but most of time the reason they go broke has nothing to do with poker. It is either drugs, women, life style, and/or gambling on things other than poker. More than a few have been taken for ride by bad/shady investment deals. Although there are a few who have won a big tournament and lost their winnings in cash games.
I will say this about horse players, as general rule the ones that win keep right on winning. Oh, sure maybe somebody will luck into a big pick 6 and give it back in a short period of time, but I do not thing of them as winning handicappers.

[guckers]

I got in to blackjack and counting cards when I was 18. Around 21 I started to play poker in casinos and online and sports betting (NCAA), 22 I started to trade Forex and Futures, now that I am 28 I am just getting in to horse racing and don't want to look back.

I find horses thrilling. Blackjack is just a joke when it comes to odds and isn't by any means a way to make a living. Poker is fun in person, mediocre online and as far as I know online poker is unregulated and easy to rig (full tilt). You're also investing hundreds of hours in a complicated game that can make you go broke quick. You can't get the big win in poker without having huge risk. I still like Forex/Futures but don't focus any of my efforts in these areas anymore because I want to focus more on horses. Futures/Forex is easy to grind out day after day.

I have a lot to learn about horses, but like I said before, I find this to be a thrilling sport. I get so damn bored with cards and bar charts.

edit: spelling

[mannyberrios]

That is true, but most of time the reason they go broke has nothing to do with poker. It is either drugs, women, life style, and/or gambling on things other than poker. More than a few have been taken for ride by bad/shady investment deals. Although there are a few who have won a big tournament and lost their winnings in cash games.
I will say this about horse players, as general rule the ones that win keep right on winning. Oh, sure maybe somebody will luck into a big pick 6 and give it back in a short period of time, but I do not thing of them as winning handicappers.
Give me a break, if you get a bad run on cards, you lose

[badcompany]

Give me a break, if you get a bad run on cards, you lose

Once again, it comes down to money management. Guys get used to playing/betting/trading at a certain level and can't gear down when things aren't going well.

[thaskalos]

Once again, it comes down to money management. Guys get used to playing/betting/trading at a certain level and can't gear down when things aren't going well.
Not only can they not gear down when things aren't going well, they often RAISE the stakes in order to get even...which pretty much seals their fate.

It's hard to keep a cool head when you are losing...no matter what game you are playing.

That's why there are a lot more winning "handicappers" (or paper traders) than there are winning "players"...

[maclr11]

It is possible, to be a part time handicapper and make profit and be young. See the post of Jay's on page one.
Or like at the big racing writers all of them made money young, betting horses.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

If you were 21 years old and in college or just out of college and you looking for a way to supplement your income by gambling, would you choose online poker or betting the ponies or some other form of gambling and why?

Once it is legal, I'd be on the betting exchange, trading like crazy with a bot
picking off juicy odds on all different sporting events.

[Robert Goren]

Once it is legal, I'd be on the betting exchange, trading like crazy with a bot
picking off juicy odds on all different sporting events.If there is a betting exchange, I strongly suggest that you remember the old adage "if it looks too good to be true, it usually is" I would expect we would see a ratcheting up of "funny" results at the race track if exchange betting is legalised here. Heaven knows they have had enough problems in countries that have it now. Americans crooks have seem to have knack of improving on chicanery when ever they get chance.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

If there is a betting exchange, I strongly suggest that you remember the old adage "if it looks too good to be true, it usually is" I would expect we would see a ratcheting up of "funny" results at the race track if exchange betting is legalised here. Heaven knows they have had enough problems in countries that have it now. Americans crooks have seem to have knack of improving on chicanery when ever they get chance.


at major racetracks? we won't see anymore than we see at the present time which is few and far between.

exchange wagering is already legal in Callie and New Jersey.

Just a matter of creating rules and getting horsemen's agreement on their cut of the loot.

[Robert Goren]

at major racetracks? we won't see anymore than we see at the present time which is few and far between.

exchange wagering is already legal in Callie and New Jersey.

Just a matter of creating rules and getting horsemen's agreement on their cut of the loot.You are a lot more optimistic than I am. I think exchange betting is like give the fox the keys to hen house. Too much money and too much temptation to an industry that has very little inclination to crack down on the cheaters. I hope I am wrong, but I going to be very careful with my money until I am proven wrong.

[proximity]

If you were 21 years old and in college or just out of college and you looking for a way to supplement your income by gambling, would you choose online poker or betting the ponies or some other form of gambling and why?

brick and mortar poker would probably give the kid the best chance to win the fastest if the option was available. it is easier competition relative to the online stakes and although i love racing, i'd say racing's learning curve is steeper.

of course (see the recent drf thread) racing's start up costs are a lot higher too.

[jefftune]

I would definitely say online poker, especially when I look at my bottom line for the past few years, lol. I have made $$$ every year playing online poker but I can't say the same for playing the horses. Horse racing is a tough game and takes a lot of work. Read the poker books, start out playing for fun or small $ and you should do ok. Don't get me wrong, I love playing the horses and I'm doing a lot more of it since online poker is gone here in the states.

[AndyC]

If there is a betting exchange, I strongly suggest that you remember the old adage "if it looks too good to be true, it usually is" I would expect we would see a ratcheting up of "funny" results at the race track if exchange betting is legalised here. Heaven knows they have had enough problems in countries that have it now. Americans crooks have seem to have knack of improving on chicanery when ever they get chance.

If I knew of 1 favorite per week that would not hit the board I could retire to my own island in the Caribbean. And my way to riches would certainly not be through exchange wagering. You can hide far more bets and get far more leverage with exotic bets by using the tote. To suggest that "cheating" would somehow expand with exchange wagering is being naive as to what currently transpires.

Let's say you were a crooked trainer that was going to take advantage of stiffing your horse by using an exchange. First of all, you couldn't bet it yourself because that is illegal and your bet is transparent. So you would have to find someone to do your dirty work for you. That someone had better not be a close friend or relative because that could easily be traced back to you. That person should also be a regular user of the exchange because someone who only bets large wagers against your horses would stick out like a sore thumb.

Will there be attempts by people to cheat using an exchange? Absolutely. Will it run rampant as a result of the ability to bet "against"? Hardly.

[mannyberrios]

Thank you for that post, Andy! Mr. Goren is spreading alot of doom, and it is good to read a positive post

[mannyberrios]

If there is a betting exchange, I strongly suggest that you remember the old adage "if it looks too good to be true, it usually is" I would expect we would see a ratcheting up of "funny" results at the race track if exchange betting is legalised here. Heaven knows they have had enough problems in countries that have it now. Americans crooks have seem to have knack of improving on chicanery when ever they get chance.
Mr. Goren, please find yourself a poker forum

[Robert Goren]

If I knew of 1 favorite per week that would not hit the board I could retire to my own island in the Caribbean. And my way to riches would certainly not be through exchange wagering. You can hide far more bets and get far more leverage with exotic bets by using the tote. To suggest that "cheating" would somehow expand with exchange wagering is being naive as to what currently transpires.

Let's say you were a crooked trainer that was going to take advantage of stiffing your horse by using an exchange. First of all, you couldn't bet it yourself because that is illegal and your bet is transparent. So you would have to find someone to do your dirty work for you. That someone had better not be a close friend or relative because that could easily be traced back to you. That person should also be a regular user of the exchange because someone who only bets large wagers against your horses would stick out like a sore thumb.

Will there be attempts by people to cheat using an exchange? Absolutely. Will it run rampant as a result of the ability to bet "against"? Hardly.What makes you think that betting by horsemen on exchanges would be illegal in the US. Owners and trainers can bet on horses they are running or can bet on any or all of the horses running in a race (including any they aren't associated) with they have a runner everywhere in the parimutuel pools.as far as I know. At least that is what I was told by a trainer years ago. Maybe things have changed, but I doubt it. If a horseman or track official knows different, please post it.

[mannyberrios]

What makes you think that betting by horsemen on exchanges would be illegal in the US. Owners and trainers can bet on horses they are running or can bet on any or all of the horses running in a race (including any they aren't associated) with they have a runner everywhere in the parimutuel pools.as far as I know. At least that is what I was told by a trainer years ago. Maybe things have changed, but I doubt it. If a horseman or track official knows different, please post it.
I think that Andy is talking about betting pattens that they can trace back to who is trying to cheat. Please give it a rest, Robert

[Robert Goren]

Mr. Goren, please find yourself a poker forumI post on one those too. For the record I think betting on horses is viable way to make money especially if you get a decent rebate. As I posted earlier, I made a little a money last year without a great deal of effort on my part. The one thing you have to be is very smart and very picky in your wagers. I bet win and some show, but there are more than one way to skin a cat. I am pretty sure there is way to bet pick 6 pools with carry overs if you are willing to risk sufficient cash. I plan on this summer to have a thread on betting against bridge jumpers again. If you care to go back and check the one I ran last summer, you will see I made money in that thread. This year I will add couple of new twist which I hope will make it even more profitable. If you care to go back over my many post, you will find a few other "tricks" I use. That said, small stakes poker has lot going for it when it comes to making money, but also has some drawbacks too.

[AndyC]

What makes you think that betting by horsemen on exchanges would be illegal in the US. Owners and trainers can bet on horses they are running or can bet on any or all of the horses running in a race (including any they aren't associated) with they have a runner everywhere in the parimutuel pools.as far as I know. At least that is what I was told by a trainer years ago. Maybe things have changed, but I doubt it. If a horseman or track official knows different, please post it.

The illegal bet would be betting AGAINST your horse. Same law exists betting through the tote.

[Robert Goren]

]I think that Andy is talking about betting pattens that they can trace back to who is trying to cheat[/b]. Please give it a rest, RobertThey can do that now if they wanted to. But they seldom do.
I just think a much lower take out on parimutuels is best way horse racing for succeed. Parimutuel is also the best way for the smart bettor to make money. I don't think that exchange betting with same takeout/commission rates is even close. But if you have 20% take out in parimutuel pools and have an 8% "commission on exchange betting then maybe if they can hold down the cheating. Anything that returns more of the bet to the bettors is a good thing.

[mannyberrios]

I post on one those too. For the record I think betting on horses is viable way to make money especially if you get a decent rebate. As I posted earlier, I made a little a money last year without a great deal of effort on my part. The one thing you have to be is very smart and very picky in your wagers. I bet win and some show, but there are more than one way to skin a cat. I am pretty sure there is way to bet pick 6 pools with carry overs if you are willing to risk sufficient cash. I plan on this summer to have a thread on betting against bridge jumpers again. If you care to go back and check the one I ran last summer, you will see I made money in that thread. This year I will add couple of new twist which I hope will make it even more profitable. If you care to go back over my many post, you will find a few other "tricks" I use. That said, small stakes poker has lot going for it when it comes to making money, but also has some drawbacks too.
A positive post! That is what I am talking about

[mannyberrios]

They can do that now if they wanted to. But they seldom do.
I just think a much lower take out on parimutuels is best way horse racing for succeed. Parimutuel is also the best way for the smart bettor to make money. I don't think that exchange betting with same takeout/commission rates is even close. But if you have 20% take out in parimutuel pools and have an 8% "commission on exchange betting then maybe if they can hold down the cheating. Anything that returns more of the bet to the bettors is a good thing.
Don't worry about it Robert, I don't think Exchange Wagering is coming to where you live anytime soon

[Robert Goren]

The illegal bet would be betting AGAINST your horse. Same law exists betting through the tote. Really, are saying that a trainer these days can't bet every other horse in the race except his horse now. If that is so it a change over what was allowed several years ago. I know a trainer who used to bet several horses other than his own in a race several years ago and was pretty open about it. The public may have not known about, but the track officials certainly did. What he did was not illegal at the time and I doubt if it is now. If it is, perhaps you could cite an official site saying so or point to case where legal action was taken against someone in the US for doing it.

[Robert Goren]

Don't worry about it Robert, I don't think Exchange Wagering is coming to where you live anytime soon With the internet anything is possible even exchange betting in Nebraska.

[mannyberrios]

With the internet anything is possible even exchange betting in Nebraska.
If you don't have TVG, I think you will have a very long wait. What ADW do you have?

[Robert Goren]

A positive post! That is what I am talking about I am postive about being able to make money betting horses , I just am not blind to the many problems the sport has or how hard it is for the average bettor to make money doing it. I am also very vocal about things which I feel would help the average bettor and things that I think would not. Right now I do not see a lot of things the industry is doing that are very positive for the bettor. Most of they have come with lately is done either to help the horsemen or a thinly veiled scheme to seperate more money from the bettor at faster rate.

[AndyC]

Really, are saying that a trainer these days can't bet every other horse in the race except his horse now. If that is so it a change over what was allowed several years ago. I know a trainer who used to bet several horses other than his own in a race several years ago and was pretty open about it. The public may have not known about, but the track officials certainly did. What he did was not illegal at the time and I doubt if it is now. If it is, perhaps you could cite an official site saying so or point to case where legal action was taken against someone in the US for doing it.

Yes, really. Read California rule.

1970. Wagering on Competing Horse.

No owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional." No employee or representative of an owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional."

[mannyberrios]

I am postive about being able to make money betting horses , I just am not blind to the many problems the sport has or how hard it is for the average bettor to make money doing it. I am also very vocal about things which I feel would help the average bettor and things that I think would not. Right now I do not see a lot of things the industry is doing that are very positive for the bettor. Most of they have come with lately is done either to help the horsemen or a thinly veiled scheme to seperate more money from the bettor at faster rate.
Yes Robert, every sport has problems, but I don't feel in my heart that these problems are as bad as some people think. I love horse racing, and I am trying to focus on the positives (and there are many), and I would like to think that there is hope for this great sport

[Robert Goren]

If you don't have TVG, I think you will have a very long wait. What ADW do you have? TVG does not take wagers from Nebraska residents at this time. If exchange wager does come about, I can not see TVG being the only place it being offered for long. I use several ADWs depending on what races I am betting. Twinspires gets some of my play because of the free PPs. That is important to a small bettor like me. I sometimes make a small bet on Twinspires to cover the free PP and to keep the video and larger one someplace else to get the rebate. I think a lot of small bettors do that. If they don't, they should.

[Jeff P]

Yes, really. Read California rule.

1970. Wagering on Competing Horse.

No owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional." No employee or representative of an owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional."

And it is much easier for a rider, trainer, owner, etc. to break the rules under the current parimutuel tote system than it would be under Exchange Wagering.

Under the parimutuel tote system, anyone 18 years old or older can walk up to a window or machine and bet on "competing horses." If the bet is a winning one it can be cashed by anyone 18 years old or older at the same or different window or machine. It can be cashed at a different facility, on the same day, on a different day, or even months later. So long as the bet is not a signer the bet is completely anonymous and no audit trail is created.

Under Exchange Wagering, insiders breaking the rules by betting on a competing horse or horses will have to do so through the Exchange - where a complete audit trail of all bets will be created.

If you are going to cheat, Exchange Wagering creates a higher risk of getting caught than the parimutuel tote system does.


-jp

.

[Robert Goren]

Yes, really. Read California rule.

1970. Wagering on Competing Horse.

No owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional." No employee or representative of an owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional." Hum, good for California. Obviously the trainer I was talking about didn't run horses there although he did run horses in several states at various times the year. I say did because he is dead now. I do wonder how closely they watch for that. Hopefully they are keeping close eye on it.

[Robert Goren]

And it is much easier for a rider, trainer, owner, etc. to break the rules under the current parimutuel tote system than it would be under Exchange Wagering.

Under the parimutuel tote system, anyone 18 years old or older can walk up to a window or machine and bet on "competing horses." If the bet is a winning one it can be cashed by anyone 18 years old or older at the same or different window or machine. It can be cashed at a different facility, on the same day, on a different day, or even months later. So long as the bet is not a signer the bet is completely anonymous and no audit trail is created.

Under Exchange Wagering, insiders breaking the rules by betting on a competing horse or horses will have to do so through the Exchange - where a complete audit trail of all bets will be created.

If you are going to cheat, Exchange Wagering creates a higher risk of getting caught than the parimutuel tote system does.


-jp

. You do have a good point there and maybe it won't happen very much. I keep thinking if I had horse who I knew was going run poorly how much easier it would be bet against that horse by itself rather than trying to dividing up a bet among several horses.

[mannyberrios]

You do have a good point there and maybe it won't happen very much. I keep thinking if I had horse who I knew was going run poorly how much easier it would be bet against that horse by itself rather than trying to dividing up a bet among several horses.
Robert, if your horse is running poorly, nobody will match your bet. If you pick a somewhat good running horse to lose, and he is say 3/5, lay your money, and hope that somebody matches your bet

[Indulto]

And it is much easier for a rider, trainer, owner, etc. to break the rules under the current parimutuel tote system than it would be under Exchange Wagering.

Under the parimutuel tote system, anyone 18 years old or older can walk up to a window or machine and bet on "competing horses." If the bet is a winning one it can be cashed by anyone 18 years old or older at the same or different window or machine. It can be cashed at a different facility, on the same day, on a different day, or even months later. So long as the bet is not a signer the bet is completely anonymous and no audit trail is created.

Under Exchange Wagering, insiders breaking the rules by betting on a competing horse or horses will have to do so through the Exchange - where a complete audit trail of all bets will be created.

If you are going to cheat, Exchange Wagering creates a higher risk of getting caught than the parimutuel tote system does.


-jp

.Betting on one or more competing horses doesn't guarantee financial reward the way "betting against" does.

The game has already proven it can survive this "flaw."

Are you suggesting we'd all be better off if our wagers can be tracked by account number like the stock market?

In exchange wagering, only the "layers" warrant tracking," but even so, how can you prove intent?

I'm still not convinced opening that can of worms is a good idea while there is no established central authority independent of the bet taker. The game isn't sufficiently policed as it is.

Rather than experiment win exchanges, why not first experiment with straight wagers with direct takeout equal to the effective takeout for whales with breakage to the penney. If that doesn't work to multiply handle at an extended major league meet such as SA or DMR (assuming adequate field sizes), then maybe it's worth the risk of going to exchanges.

[Jeff P]

Betting on one or more competing horses doesn't guarantee financial reward the way "betting against" does.

I strongly disagree. I have access to large data samples (as in every starter in every thoroughbred race run in North America from 2004 through year end 2011.) The data is conclusive and proves the following:

In races where the post time favorite does not finish first - substantial profits are available in the win pool (with no handicapping whatsoever) simply by betting the 2nd through 7th ranked public choices in the odds to win.

While that strategy doesn't guarantee a profit in any one race - it does (mathematically) guarantee substantial profits when repeated a large number of times.

The only thing a cheater (or a player on the up and up for that matter) needs to know in order to mathematically guarantee profits in a parimutuel win pool is that the post time favorite is not going to win the race... and then repeat repeat repeat.


-jp

.

[AndyC]

Rather than experiment win exchanges, why not first experiment with straight wagers with direct takeout equal to the effective takeout for whales with breakage to the penney. If that doesn't work to multiply handle at an extended major league meet such as SA or DMR (assuming adequate field sizes), then maybe it's worth the risk of going to exchanges.

The appealing part about exchange wagering is that you know your price and don't have to factor in the fluctuations, not to mention the significantly lower vig. Experimenting with lower takeout doesn't change the odds fluctuations that we currently experience that keep many would be players away.

[Indulto]

I strongly disagree. I have access to large data samples (as in every starter in every thoroughbred race run in North America from 2004 through year end 2011.) The data is conclusive and proves the following:

In races where the post time favorite does not finish first - substantial profits are available in the win pool (with no handicapping whatsoever) simply by betting the 2nd through 7th ranked public choices in the odds to win.

While that strategy doesn't guarantee a profit in any one race - it does (mathematically) guarantee substantial profits when repeated a large number of times.

The only thing a cheater (or a player on the up and up for that matter) needs to know in order to mathematically guarantee profits in a parimutuel win pool is that the post time favorite is not going to win the race... and then repeat repeat repeat.


-jp

.I don't doubt that and I'd be interested in knowing what the overall ROI and maximum # of consecutive losses is over various cycles, but the context for my objection is the certainty of reward associated with a single event.

[Indulto]

The appealing part about exchange wagering is that you know your price and don't have to factor in the fluctuations, not to mention the significantly lower vig. Experimenting with lower takeout doesn't change the odds fluctuations that we currently experience that keep many would be players away.That's fine as long as you're not betting on a pre-ordained loser. ;)

[AndyC]

That's fine as long as you're not betting on a pre-ordained loser. ;)

So there are no "pre-ordained" losers when the tote system is used? Stiffing horses to get a betting advantage will always exist regardless of what betting platform is used. I personally believe that an exchange is a much harder platform to manipulate to make a score.

[Jeff P]

Fears that exchange wagering somehow opens up a Pandora's Box to make cheating easier than it currently is under the parimutuel tote system are based on sheer fallacy.

Under the parimutuel tote system: Anyone over the age of 18 can make bets and cash them anonymously - leaving investigators with zero audit trail to work with in the event cheating is suspected.

Under exchange wagering all wagers are made on the exchange. With an exchange a complete audit trail is created for every account holder and every single wager.

Look, whenever money is involved somebody somewhere will always have motivation to cheat.

If history has proven one thing it's this:

No matter what the industry, market, or type of financial transaction (Credit card purchases, wire transfers, ACH, electronic checks, stock trades, options, currencies, commodities, etc.) wherever and whenever proper audit trails have been introduced it becomes exponentially more difficult to cheat and get away with it.

Exchange wagering is no different.


-jp

.

[badcompany]

I don't doubt that and I'd be interested in knowing what the overall ROI and maximum # of consecutive losses is over various cycles, but the context for my objection is the certainty of reward associated with a single event.

I'm wondering how "Post Time" is defined. Very often, especially at small tracks, you wouldn't know the favorite until it's too late.

Also, if everyone started using this system, anticipating the post time favorite, that horse wouldn't end up the favorite.

[Robert Goren]

I know some people think they are going be seeing 3/1 on some horses that would being going off at 5/2 under the parimutuel system. I don't that is going to happen very often, if at all. The people offering up a horse at certain price are going to very conservative in the prices they offer. The ones who aren't will go to go broke pretty fast. I think most of the odds offered will be less than odds in a parimutuel pool. I think most people learn pretty fast that the money to made in exchange betting is going to be made by the people offering the odds.

[Indulto]

Fears that exchange wagering somehow opens up a Pandora's Box to make cheating easier than it currently is under the parimutuel tote system are based on sheer fallacy.

Under the parimutuel tote system: Anyone over the age of 18 can make bets and cash them anonymously - leaving investigators with zero audit trail to work with in the event cheating is suspected.

Under exchange wagering all wagers are made on the exchange. With an exchange a complete audit trail is created for every account holder and every single wager.

Look, whenever money is involved somebody somewhere will always have motivation to cheat.

If history has proven one thing it's this:

No matter what the industry, market, or type of financial transaction (Credit card purchases, wire transfers, ACH, electronic checks, stock trades, options, currencies, commodities, etc.) wherever and whenever proper audit trails have been introduced it becomes exponentially more difficult to cheat and get away with it.

Exchange wagering is no different.


-jp

.Does it make cheating easier for those who cheat regularly? Probably not But it does offer an option/temptation for an easy return for some who wouldn't cheat otherwise. Thus the possibility that more people would infrequently take advantage of negative insider information must be considered.

Would the certainty of a one-time return be enough incentive for connectins to risk their horse's well-being with no chance to win? Maybe David Milch will tell us. ;)

Insider trading still goes on in the stock market despite audit trails, and it may be easier to prove intent there than in exchange wagering. Unfortunately, any misadventures prompted by exchange wagering also impacts pari-mutuel wagering.

[AndyC]

I know some people think they are going be seeing 3/1 on some horses that would being going off at 5/2 under the parimutuel system. I don't that is going to happen very often, if at all. The people offering up a horse at certain price are going to very conservative in the prices they offer. The ones who aren't will go to go broke pretty fast. I think most of the odds offered will be less than odds in a parimutuel pool. I think most people learn pretty fast that the money to made in exchange betting is going to be made by the people offering the odds.

You may be correct but I do know that if I think a horse should be 3/2 and I can get 5/2 guaranteed I would prefer that to the way a horse goes to the gate at 5/2 and ends up at 7/5.

But you must remember that exchange wagering will not replace the tote so if the tote is saying 5/2 and exchange wagering is only offering 9/5 the person laying 9/5 won't get much play. They must be as good as the tote to get their action covered.

[Ray2000]

The only thing a cheater (or a player on the up and up for that matter) needs to know in order to mathematically guarantee profits in a parimutuel win pool is that the post time favorite is not going to win the race... and then repeat repeat repeat.


-jp

.


Similar results for Betting against the fav in Harness

Last year numbers for Standardbreds

Number of Races......43142
Fav won..............18241
non fav won..........24901
%Winning Fav..........42%

Bet the fav........$86,284
Return on fav......$75,230
Roi on fav...........-13%

Bet all non-favs..$613,904
Return on non-fav.$412,790
Roi..................-33%

If you know the favorite will run out
Bet all nonfav....$356,456
Return............$412,790
Roi..................+16%

[classhandicapper]

First I would make sure I took some courses in accounting and finance.

I would get a job, live within my means, save money, and slowly build a portfolio of high quality companies with decent long term growth prospects, solid balance sheets, and either great brands or at a minimum a company that doesn't have to reinvent itself every few years because of product cycles. Then I'd make sure I did most of my buying every few years during market panics, bear markets, recessions, or when the companies were facing short term difficulties even though the long term prospects were fine.

Searching for companies like that and studying their financial statements every quarter will keep you busy and entertained without being overly time consuming. You can also get wealthy while you are still young if you keep yourself in a position to save as much as possible early in the process. If you happen to be particularly skilled and outperform the market by even a few percentage points year, it will happen even faster.

I wouldn't waste any time with horses, poker, sports, day trading or anything else even though those can be profitable (especially with high turnover of a smaller portfolio). They are way more time consuming, energy draining, stressful, and eventually have portfolio size and psychological disadvantages (and I've netted profits at all of those things).

[classhandicapper]

Yes, really. Read California rule.

1970. Wagering on Competing Horse.

No owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional." No employee or representative of an owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional."

The only people following those rules are the people that don't bet at all.

[thaskalos]

First I would make sure I took some courses in accounting and finance.

I would get a job, live within my means, save money, and slowly build a portfolio of high quality companies with decent long term growth prospects, solid balance sheets, and either great brands or at a minimum a company that doesn't have to reinvent itself every few years because of product cycles. Then I'd make sure I did most of my buying every few years during market panics, bear markets, recessions, or when the companies were facing short term difficulties even though the long term prospects were fine.

Searching for companies like that and studying their financial statements every quarter will keep you busy and entertained without being overly time consuming. You can also get wealthy while you are still young if you keep yourself in a position to save as much as possible early in the process. If you happen to be particularly skilled and outperform the market by even a few percentage points year, it will happen even faster.

I wouldn't waste any time with horses, poker, sports, day trading or anything else even though those can be profitable (especially with high turnover of a smaller portfolio). They are way more time consuming, energy draining, stressful, and eventually have portfolio size and psychological disadvantages (and I've netted profits at all of those things).

The prerequisite is that you should really like what you are doing...otherwise it will get old very fast.

Most people get attracted to gambling because of its promises of a "fast buck"...and don't consider the time and effort it takes to become a proficient player. It appears that gambling most attracts exactly the type of player who is least suited for the endeavor.

There is no easy money to be made out there...

There is risk, and heartache, and sometimes excruciating boredom, in every game that is worth playing. If you really like the game...then you come up with ways to manage the negative aspects of it.

If you don't really like it...then the game burns you out...

[thaskalos]

Plenty of "professional" big name poker players go bust all the time...but you never see that side of the game on ESPN

To be honest...that part of the game is concealed in horse racing also...:)

[PaceAdvantage]

Nah...everyone thinks all horseplayers are broke...nowhere near the same amount of people think all poker players are broke...though they'd be surprised... :lol:

[thaskalos]

Nah...everyone thinks all horseplayers are broke...nowhere near the same amount of people think all poker players are broke...though they'd be surprised... :lol:
True story:

I am at the Bellagio with my brother-in-law, and we are walking around in the packed poker room...as I proceed to point out to him certain well known "professional" poker players who happen to be in the crowd.

As we are talking...a very well known "tournament'' poker player starts walking our way. Now this player has won MILLIONS while playing tournaments, and has also written a couple of books on the subject. I have even played with this man on two occasions...and he is a GREAT player.

I am about to extend my hand to him to introduce myself, and to thank him for his contribution to the game's literature...when a young man -- who was standing with his girlfriend right next to me -- beats me to it and extends HIS hand to this poker "legend...and says to him the exact same thing that I intended to say.

The "professional" player thanked him...but instead of letting go of his hand, he pulls the kid close to him -- and away from the girlfriend.

"Hey kid"...I hear the 'pro' whisper, "you couldn't spare $100, could you?"

The kid was stunned...and so was I.

"No sir"...the kid stammers. "I have a little money...but we still have two days to go on our stay here"...

"That's okay, don't worry about it", the poker icon says...and wanders away...

Looks are deceiving folks...:)

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow...that's a great story...would go over well on 2+2 I would think... :lol:

[AndyC]

The only people following those rules are the people that don't bet at all.

Perhaps, but those people who don't follow the rule now sure as heck won't be setting up an exchange account and publicly flaunting their disregard for the law.

[Robert Goren]

Not all horse players and/or poker players are broke, but most of them are. Sometimes it nothing to do with their gambling, sometimes it does. I pretty sure I will die broke, in spite of, not because of my gambling. I win a little at both poker and the ponies, but have never wanted to be full time gambler. It is a lousy way to live.
Back to the topic of the thread. As part profitable sideline, you can a lot more money betting horses than you can playing poker, but is lot easier no make money playing poker these days because you aren't tied to a set time. If you wake up in the middle of the night and can't get back to sleep, you can find a game on line. With poker you have flexibility that you don't have with horse racing. Last summer when I was doing my thread, one of things that bothered me is that I had on the computer at certain time in order to see if i could make a bet or not. The other thing that I am pretty sure of is that you have to be fair amount brighter to make money playing the horses than you do playing poker. The other thing about poker is that once you sort of master it, all have to do is play. Sure there new books that come out once in a while that you should read, but that is it. With horseracing the grunt work nevers ends. You are always reading PP or checking out results. I suppose some people enjoy that stuff, but I consider it boring work. If I were 21 and looking for a way to add some money to my income on the side, I would probably play poker, but the answer is not clear cut. It would depend on what else was happening in my life.

[Robert Goren]

Wow...that's a great story...would go over well on 2+2 I would think... :lol:There no shortage of stories like that on 2+2. There always seems to a certain amount of reveling going on over there whenever there are the rumors of a famous player being broke....

[thaskalos]

Not all horse players and/or poker players are broke, but most of them are. Sometimes it nothing to do with their gambling, sometimes it does. I pretty sure I will die broke, in spite of, not because of my gambling. I win a little at both poker and the ponies, but have never wanted to be full time gambler. It is a lousy way to live.
Back to the topic of the thread. As part profitable sideline, you can a lot more money betting horses than you can playing poker, but is lot easier no make money playing poker these days because you aren't tied to a set time. If you wake up in the middle of the night and can't get back to sleep, you can find a game on line. With poker you have flexibility that you don't have with horse racing. Last summer when I was doing my thread, one of things that bothered me is that I had on the computer at certain time in order to see if i could make a bet or not. The other thing that I am pretty sure of is that you have to be fair amount brighter to make money playing the horses than you do playing poker. The other thing about poker is that once you sort of master it, all have to do is play. Sure there new books that come out once in a while that you should read, but that is it. With horseracing the grunt work nevers ends. You are always reading PP or checking out results. I suppose some people enjoy that stuff, but I consider it boring work. If I were 21 and looking for a way to add some money to my income on the side, I would probably play poker, but the answer is not clear cut. It would depend on what else was happening in my life.

I disagree with you Robert, gambling is not a "lousy way to live"...it just isn't for everybody.

The vast majority of people get up every day to the blaring sound of an alarm clock...only to go to a job that they hate...working for a boss that they despise. And they do this for 40 years...

Is that a "nice" way to live?

[Robert Fischer]

Enjoy poker, and have a buddy who is a pro, but racing is my preferred game.

[proximity]

"Hey kid"...I hear the 'pro' whisper, "you couldn't spare $100, could you?"
...:)

sometimes you just run bad. hell, i had to rebuy the other day at sands playing 3-6 vs fish who made the charles town donks look like stu unger. at least after that experience i am no longer sure that bovadadog is rigged though. :D

[Robert Goren]

I disagree with you Robert, gambling is not a "lousy way to live"...it just isn't for everybody.

The vast majority of people get up every day to the blaring sound of an alarm clock...only to go to a job that they hate...working for a boss that they despise. And they do this for 40 years...

Is that a "nice" way to live? As boring as a job may seem, at the end of the day you gets say "I contributed some thing today". With gambling you don't get to say that. I know some people don't ever worry about that.

[jerry-g]

I never got interested in Poker and it no doubt was due to my watching a buddy of mine win playing in the service. The impression I got was that you had to be able to hold your booze and smoke a lot of cigs. The games would last all night and I can tell you that at daybreak, the sun seemed all most fatal. Perhaps that is not how the pro does it today. It also looked like a lot depended on body language and bluffs beside having a good hand. I don;'t know how computer players today can judge that. That said, I think there are a lot more unknowns in horse racing than in Poker. With Poker, the pros get known early and with horse racing, we can only guess how many might be playing today's race.

[Robert Goren]

I never got interested in Poker and it no doubt was due to my watching a buddy of mine win playing in the service. The impression I got was that you had to be able to hold your booze and smoke a lot of cigs. The games would last all night and I can tell you that at daybreak, the sun seemed all most fatal. Perhaps that is not how the pro does it today. It also looked like a lot depended on body language and bluffs beside having a good hand. I don;'t know how computer players today can judge that. That said, I think there are a lot more unknowns in horse racing than in Poker. With Poker, the pros get known early and with horse racing, we can only guess how many might be playing today's race.How is that a good a thing. I would never play poker with Phil Ivy, but I might be in the same pool as handicapping's equivalent and never know it. That's only bad for me no matter how I slice it. I have pretty large ego, but I know playing poker with Ivy is suicide. In horse racing, you have no choice. That is a big minus when it comes to making money by betting the horses.

[raybo]

How is that a good a thing. I would never play poker with Phil Ivy, but I might be in the same pool as handicapping's equivalent and never know it. That's only bad for me no matter how I slice it. I have pretty large ego, but I know playing poker with Ivy is suicide. In horse racing, you have no choice. That is a big minus when it comes to making money by betting the horses.

In both games, you have the ability to play or pass. In poker, if you are up against a pro or very good non-pro, and you know you can't outplay him, you better have the cards or fold. In horse racing, you naturally assume you are up against not 1, but several pros. That being said, unless you let the odds dictate your evaluation of a horse's probability of winning, you're either holding the best hand or you're not, depending on your own handicapping ability. The value is either there or it isn't. Even if the value isn't there on your pick, it is almost assuredly there on another horse, in the same race. Even the pros, in racing, don't get it right a majority of the time, which leaves plenty of room to make a good wager.

The similarities, in the 2 games, are few. Even an average player, in poker, can win, if he gets the cards and sticks to his guns. In racing, that probably won't be the case.

[pondman]

If you were 21 years old and in college or just out of college and you looking for a way to supplement your income by gambling, would you choose online poker or betting the ponies or some other form of gambling and why?

I paid enough tuition, a big chunk of it, by listening to the trainers chatter in the morning at SA, but that was 30 years ago.

There are many more good poker player than horse players. I personally wouldn't play poker, because of the boredom factor. Horse racing takes much less time, sometimes as little as 30 minutes a week, and includes a big payout if a person is patient.

[thaskalos]

It's also a question of convenience. Horse racing is run during hours that the 21-year old simply doesn't have available. How can he ever hope to become a "fan" of this game? Sure, he can play the night tracks or the harness tracks...but these require "specialized" knowledge, without which, the young player is better off at the casino.

That's the thing with our game.

If you have the right handicapping knowledge, and the discipline to put it to proper use, then horse racing can be the best gambling game out there.

But to the novice player...it's the worst gambling game in existence.

Poker has a better luck/skill ratio than our game does...and the unsophisticated player retains his enthusiasm a lot longer there than he does at the racetrack.

Horse racing is very unforgiving to the novice player, for a variety of reasons...and doesn't just leave him soundly beaten, but bewildered as well. And that's not a good combination, if you are looking for "repeat" customers.

[pondman]

you can't outplay him, you better have the cards or fold. In horse racing, you naturally assume you are up against not 1, but several pros. That being said, unless you let the odds dictate your evaluation of a horse's probability of winning, you're either holding the best hand or you're not, depe

.

In racing I can sit for a month waiting for value, and cancel with 30 seconds to go, if the margin shrinks. If you get in over your head in poker, not only do better players have a reasonable idea as to the odds of your hand, but you can be forced to commit more resources in order to protect your position.

[raybo]

In racing I can sit for a month waiting for value, and cancel with 30 seconds to go, if the margin shrinks. If you get in over your head in poker, not only do better players have a reasonable idea as to the odds of your hand, but you can be forced to commit more resources in order to protect your position.

True, but in poker you can choose who your opponents are, by refusing to get involved in hands against better players (not getting in "over your head"), unless you have the nuts to start with. In racing you never know who your opponents are (so you are technically "over your head" from the get go), but, you can decide which races to play, playing those that fit your style and ability will give you a better chance. However, the average racing player never uses that ability because they either don't keep records, or, they ignore what the records tell them.

IMO, the average racing player will not do as well as the average poker player. He.she must attain higher skills, and characteristics, in order to have a chance of being successful.

[Robert Goren]

In both games, you have the ability to play or pass. In poker, if you are up against a pro or very good non-pro, and you know you can't outplay him, you better have the cards or fold. In horse racing, you naturally assume you are up against not 1, but several pros. That being said, unless you let the odds dictate your evaluation of a horse's probability of winning, you're either holding the best hand or you're not, depending on your own handicapping ability. The value is either there or it isn't. Even if the value isn't there on your pick, it is almost assuredly there on another horse, in the same race. Even the pros, in racing, don't get it right a majority of the time, which leaves plenty of room to make a good wager.

The similarities, in the 2 games, are few. Even an average player, in poker, can win, if he gets the cards and sticks to his guns. In racing, that probably won't be the case.The great thing about poker these days is you can be choosey with whom you play. There is no reason to play with sharks. There lot more to being a winning poker player than knowing when to hold them or fold them. It is lot more about knowing when to sit down at a game and when to move to another game. There simple no reason to play against equal or better players.
I am pretty sure that you and I approach betting horses differently and I will leave it at that.

[raybo]

The great thing about poker these days is you can be choosey with whom you play. There is no reason to play with sharks. There lot more to being a winning poker player than knowing when to hold them or fold them. It is lot more about knowing when to sit down at a game and when to move to another game. There simple no reason to play against equal or better players.
I am pretty sure that you and I approach betting horses differently and I will leave it at that.

See my last post.

[badcompany]

True story:

I am at the Bellagio with my brother-in-law, and we are walking around in the packed poker room...as I proceed to point out to him certain well known "professional" poker players who happen to be in the crowd.

As we are talking...a very well known "tournament'' poker player starts walking our way. Now this player has won MILLIONS while playing tournaments, and has also written a couple of books on the subject. I have even played with this man on two occasions...and he is a GREAT player.

I am about to extend my hand to him to introduce myself, and to thank him for his contribution to the game's literature...when a young man -- who was standing with his girlfriend right next to me -- beats me to it and extends HIS hand to this poker "legend...and says to him the exact same thing that I intended to say.

The "professional" player thanked him...but instead of letting go of his hand, he pulls the kid close to him -- and away from the girlfriend.

"Hey kid"...I hear the 'pro' whisper, "you couldn't spare $100, could you?"

The kid was stunned...and so was I.

"No sir"...the kid stammers. "I have a little money...but we still have two days to go on our stay here"...

"That's okay, don't worry about it", the poker icon says...and wanders away...

Looks are deceiving folks...:)

This sounds like TJ Cloutier. He admitted to selling his WSOP Bracelets.

It's not an atypical story for how things end for a "professional" gambler. The problem is that when they bust out, and almost all do, they have no way to replenish their bankrolls, other than by borrowing, as most don't have a marketable skill.

That's when the pressure to win builds, and the maxim, "Scared money never wins" comes into play.

[thaskalos]

This sounds like TJ Cloutier. He admitted to selling his WSOP Bracelets.

It's not an atypical story for how things end for a "professional" gambler. The problem is that when they bust out, and almost all do, they have no way to replenish their bankrolls, other than by borrowing, as most don't have a marketable skill.

That's when the pressure to win builds, and the maxim, "Scared money never wins" comes into play.
Sir...you sure know your stuff. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

Any chance he was joking? :lol:

[thaskalos]

Any chance he was joking? :lol:
Who?

[PaceAdvantage]

Who?TJ...about needing the hundred...or whomever it was that you saw in the casino asking for $$

[badcompany]

TJ...about needing the hundred...or whomever it was that you saw in the casino asking for $$

This is about the best piece I've read on the subject:

http://www.poker-king.com/poker-king-articles.php?article=191

The Dark Underside of the World of Professional Poker Players

Call me naive, call me gullible; I have been absolutely blown away by what I have seen in Vegas. Not only by what I have seen, but also by what I have heard.

I would say that at least half of the big-name pros are entering tournaments staked; they simply can't afford to enter themselves. These are guys with millions of dollars in career tournament wins. Now, this isn't really that bad; I understand variance and one big tournament win can easily be whittled away if you enter a lot of big tournaments.

Where my jaw dropped? Online players, that I had always thought were sitting on high six figure poker bankrolls, begging for money. Some of the most notable names in the online poker world talking about how they have no money, and how they are now in debt. Online poker players with a line-up of people that they owe money to. Other prominent online players chasing down people that owe them money, just so they can buy into an event at the World Series of Poker. Can't collect any of the debt? Then they don't have the money to play.

It seems like a constant vicious circle. A player will have a big score, they'll play too far out of their league, bust, receive stakes from other players who think, he won a major event, my money will be put to good use, and before you know it, this player that had a million dollar+ win is now hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. With no real job prospects. No assets. Just debt.

[badcompany]

Sir...you sure know your stuff. :ThmbUp:

Thanks.

[thaskalos]

TJ...about needing the hundred...or whomever it was that you saw in the casino asking for $$

Kidding? I highly doubt it...

There is a certain "glaze" that gamblers have on their eyes when they are walking around broke... :)

[rubicon55]

This is about the best piece I've read on the subject:

http://www.poker-king.com/poker-king-articles.php?article=191

The Dark Underside of the World of Professional Poker Players

Call me naive, call me gullible; I have been absolutely blown away by what I have seen in Vegas. Not only by what I have seen, but also by what I have heard.

I would say that at least half of the big-name pros are entering tournaments staked; they simply can't afford to enter themselves. These are guys with millions of dollars in career tournament wins. Now, this isn't really that bad; I understand variance and one big tournament win can easily be whittled away if you enter a lot of big tournaments.

Where my jaw dropped? Online players, that I had always thought were sitting on high six figure poker bankrolls, begging for money. Some of the most notable names in the online poker world talking about how they have no money, and how they are now in debt. Online poker players with a line-up of people that they owe money to. Other prominent online players chasing down people that owe them money, just so they can buy into an event at the World Series of Poker. Can't collect any of the debt? Then they don't have the money to play.

It seems like a constant vicious circle. A player will have a big score, they'll play too far out of their league, bust, receive stakes from other players who think, he won a major event, my money will be put to good use, and before you know it, this player that had a million dollar+ win is now hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. With no real job prospects. No assets. Just debt.

Good article, thanks for sharing.

[Robert Goren]

The article states that half of the "big name" pro entering touraments are staked. That is wrong. It is very close to 100%. That is no secret. If a "big name" poker is broke, it is not because he spent too much money on entry fees because he spend next to nothing on that.

[mannyberrios]

Thank you for that post, Bad Company

[thaskalos]

The best poker players play in the cash games...not in the tournaments. The luck factor is too big in the tournaments...plus the best players can't use their large bankrolls to the same advantage that they can in the cash games.

[proximity]

now they're saying mouth matusow owes full tilt 700k...

[Robert Goren]

The world of high stakes poker is an unique world filled with people with very expensive lifestyles and degenerate gamblers who would bet on how long a spilled cup of coffee would take to hit the floor. A lot are heavily into drugs. There is nothing very glamorous about most of that world. They make the guys who hang around the race track look like outstanding citizens.