Tioga Downs Handicapping

[DeanT]

Tioga handicapping discussion

[DeanT]

I'm going to play this each day - advance betting exotics - so I am sure to supply some feed for the locals :D

I just have to see if I can find some free programs.

[Not4Love]

I have never played Tioga, but plan on it this year. Can anyone give some advice as far as the drivers and how the track usually plays? Thanks.

[DeanT]

I think Ray has some decent stats. I think he is going to post some when we get closer to the meet.

They have statsmaster for free there:

http://www.trackmaster.com/statsmaster/TGDN.html

I am just going through some of the stats. Whomever this driver Phil Fluet is, was a good bet last year with a 0% ROI (would be a positive ROI this year with reduced takeout). He also strikes with longshots a little bit. I have never see him drive, but it appears he has some talent, imo. Jimmy Marohn is a leader there, and he aint too bad when he goes to the M.

As for trainers, Mark Ford is there, and he (not surprisingly does well). Some other NYSS trainers have some good numbers there.

I dont see any stats on post positions, or favorite strike rates etc, but maybe I am just blind.

Ill find out what ADW's this will be on, where to find video, and see if we can get more stats.

I am kind of looking forward to playing it. When I have seen races in the past the racing was not too bad, and they have some decent stakes races, like the 200k Bettors Delight.

[turfnsport]

They will have some useful links here:

http://www.tiogadowns.com/racinginfo.htm

[mirror Image]

Wasnt thier a driver at the Big M a few years ago
that had the last name Fluet ?

[mirror Image]

I see the takeout will be lower from 18% w-p-s, 20%
ex's and doubles and 25% all other exotics to 15% w-p-s
17% ex's and doubles, 21% all other exotics :jump:

They said they would even consider going lower on the
takeout rates to between 8% and 9% if the state would allow :eek: :eek:

[LottaKash]

Wasnt thier a driver at the Big M a few years ago
that had the last name Fluet ?

Mirror, if my recollections still serve me, I believe his first name is/was Norman, and I believe he is/was just a trainer....Thru the years I have seen his name come up at YR, RR, Fhld, M1, MR and DD, and other east coast tracks...That is all I remember tho, and not even if recently, at that...

best,

[Ray2000]

Tioga Downs 5/8 Mile track, 600' Stretch, No Lightning Lane, Direction East, First Trailing Post 10

I have 57 race days in 2009. (Sample size was too small to make my list before)


Post......PP1....PP2....PP3....PP4....PP5....PP6.. ..PP7....PP8....PP9
Starts...619....619....619....619....618....612... .541....410....240
Wins......86.....98.....88.....96.....93.....77... ..46.....22.....13
% Wins...14%....16%....14%....16%....15%....13%..... 9%.....5%.....5%

% Dev....7%.....19%.....9%....17%....14%.....-2%....-45%...-118%..-105%
ROI%...-34%....-12%...-29%...-34%...-18%....-28%....-46%...-75%...-67%



% Dev is difference between actual wins and expected wins from this post if no bias
(The number shown in TrackMaster Programs, under Post)

ROI% is based on always betting 2$ on this post.

[melman]

What was the daily average handle at Tioga last year? I plan on making that number go up. If there is a large enough increase in handle maybe Tioga mangement can force New York State to allow them to run there own business the way they want to. A novel idea. :)

[Pacingguy]

Mirror, if my recollections still serve me, I believe his first name is/was Norman, and I believe he is/was just a trainer....Thru the years I have seen his name come up at YR, RR, Fhld, M1, MR and DD, and other east coast tracks...That is all I remember tho, and not even if recently, at that...

best,

Norman used to drive but it has been many years.

[DeanT]

What was the daily average handle at Tioga last year? I plan on making that number go up. If there is a large enough increase in handle maybe Tioga mangement can force New York State to allow them to run there own business the way they want to. A novel idea. :)

Not too high, but let's hope it is higher this year.

Mel, did you read Gural's comments along those lines? He seems to want slots tracks to be exempt from these "rules".

Nevertheless, Gural said, “even though I’ve lost a lot of money, I still enjoy running Tioga Park.” And despite his losses, he remains an advocate of reducing the takeout. “If you’ve got slots,” he said, “the pari-mutuel revenues are a drop in the bucket. Why offer slots with an 8% takeout and then charge people 20% to bet on racing?”

[willphorse]

Hey guys! Glad to hear you will all be playing Tioga this year! My home track, live 3 mins from the Racino. If you want ANY info, I got it... just ask away

[DeanT]

Will,

What is the conditioned sheet like? A lot of claimers at which price/range? Mostly nw1 and 2 or what?

Just trying to get a grasp on the overall horse population.

[willphorse]

Dean...

Last few years looks like NW1500, NW3001, $4000 Clm, NW1, NW2, Open, $7500 Clm.

Usually the card will consist of

Friday- 4 or 5 races of NW Conditional, 1 NW2, $7500 Clm, and the rest is whatever fills

Saturday- Many NW1, NW2, A few NW Conditional, Both Open (Trot and Pace), $4000 Clm, and NW1501L5

Sunday- 2 or 3 races of NW1-2, Open Handicap Pace, $4000 Clm, $7500 Clm, $10,000-$15,000 Clm, and 2 or 3 NW Conditional


Usually Opens will race Saturday, $4000 Clm or NW1500L5 will be last races on card, and usually a few NW1-NW2 and NW Conditional on Every card.

NYSS brings in some good horses/trainers, and usually Tompkins Greer Series comes into town late August.

Decent Purse's, and Great people at the track! Small hick-town usually gets a couple thousand attending, and sometimes A great deal of people when the bigger races come into town. The track offers a bunch of Family activities, and always treats the bettor with respect. Settlemoir is always trackside on the apron, which is unusual for any track!

The prices are sometimes short, as winners are sometimes obvious. Usually pace holds strong, and this is a big place for trip handicapping! Pocket trip/2nd Over have a high win %, and 1-2-5 Post Positions have owned the track for the past few years.

Decent Drivers, Jim Perry has always been in the running for Trainer title. Howard Parker has a BIG showing here, and is always at a short price regardless of the horse he is on. Jim Morrill wins atleast 5 races whenever he comes to town. Drivers Championship brings out thousands every year too! Its a great environment, and a good track to be able to wager on! Great news on the takeout Lowering! Hopefully some of those short priced winners will rise a little!

[DeanT]

That's about as good a summary as we can get. Thanks!

I flipped over last year while playing in the afternoon when Morrill was on a six or seven race winning streak. Did he not win 8 that day or something?

I notice his ROI there with a high win percentage. Those races are tough to bet, because he is overbet, but he wins everything :)

[wilderness]

The following and excerpt from a 2004 Harness Racing Communications PR:
(Phil Fluet was 25YO at the time):

Fluet, who grew up near Batavia, New York and now lives in Columbus, New Jersey, has three wins in his brief career as a driver and 17 wins as a trainer. Last year, he competed in the Billings Amateur Driving Series and reached the finals.

"I’ve always wanted to do this my whole life," Fluet said. "It’s exciting. I like the intense feeling you get seeing the horses go behind the gate. But it’s tough. There’s a lot of tough competition in New Jersey. It takes a while to get respect. I have (34) drives, but I’m in no hurry. I take them as I can get them. I’ve got a lot of proving to do."

Fluet, who has an associate’s degree in business from Genesee Community College in Batavia, trains two horses of his own. He would like to eventually be a catch driver, but he also would like to remain close to his father, Normand, who has nearly 1,000 wins as a driver. "I got my degree and went off to the races," Fluet said. "My mom (Marcy Rich) grew up in it and she knows how tough it can get. She wanted me to go to college, and then if I still wanted to do horses, I could. I’m third generation in racing. My dad just wants to break babies now. He gets them ready for the sire stakes, mainly on the New York circuit. I’ve learned everything from my dad. I basically plan being around my dad forever."

[DeanT]

Thanks Wilderness....... he has to know what he is doing..... 0.353 udrs and roi of flat. Nice greater than 5-1 percentage too.

[melman]

Dean--Poster "Dboomster" over at Harnesscharts.com has all the Tioga news up on his front page. If they would allow him I would bet he would put up Tioga pp's also. Let's make the Vernon horsemen wish they have jumped on this like the Tioga mangement wanted them to. Who knows if they get enough of an increase in business maybe NY State will "allow" them to run there own business as they see fit. :)

Willphorse---Any idea on what the handle was at Tioga on an average Sat??

[baconswitchfarm]

I hate to be the rain cloud on this topic. The handle at tioga is one of the worst of all tracks.If they have a 50% increase in handle then they will have 1500 in the ex. and tri. They have an awful product so I just dont know how much this can help. THis would be a great experiment at yonkers or anywhere else with handle. I don't think the limited volume this track handles will tell us anything. On another note , Hoosier Park opens in two weeks. Their tri takeouts are what tioga is reducing to 21%. The most honest racing in the country , large fields, and a fairly low take out to other tracks by comparison.If a new player wants to make money they should take a stab there. But Tioga gets an A , for at least making an effort.

[melman]

No matter the size of the handle I plan on making it larger. :) With a 15% take on w/p/s bets and can still get good sized rebates that's hard to top. I really do well at Monticello and many people feel that they also have a "bad product" with lot's of cheaper races. That's not a problem for me but I do understand many what "quality" stock. If we as bettor's cannot support a track that will drop the takeouts and keep supporting those tracks which do not what does that tell track management? If bettor's JUST want full fields and "quality" stock then why would mangement not think about a RAISE in takeout. After all who cares about the take just give me the other two. Couple of tracks in Penna already have 32% on tri's.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

OK Melman, I'll make you happy. Bet Tioga at Horseplayersbet.com, "You can get a "whales" worth of action."

[DeanT]

No matter the size of the handle I plan on making it larger. :)

Im with you. Let's hope we dont bet the same horses though :D

[Horseplayersbet.com]

With me in the pools there might be plenty of money for both of you. I like betting on horses that had an "x" last start on their line.

I heard that "x" means hidden treasure.

[DeanT]

I heard that "x" means hidden treasure.

Yes, you should bet that HP. It's a golden angle. Horses that break win all the time. Check out this video. This happens five or six times a day :liar:

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[wilderness]

With me in the pools there might be plenty of money for both of you. I like betting on horses that had an "x" last start on their line.

I heard that "x" means hidden treasure.

especially mares at a specific time of the year.

[willphorse]

Well here is a good run down....

Melman.... An average Saturday Handle can be anywhere between $120,000 to $180,000.

Usually 9 to 11 races on each card, sometimes can get 12 or 13 races, but unusual.

This year it looks like Fridays will be on or off. They race every Saturday and Sunday from May 1st to September 11th. The Empire Breeders Classic (1 Million dollar purse) is scheduled for May 30th I believe.

Usually low-name drivers race, such as Marohn Jr, Corey Braden, Howard Parker, and every once in awhile some from Vernon will come such as Okusko, Marks, and Gates Brunet.

As far as horses go, there are some talented younger ones this year. Actually spoke to Jim Overdorf (Not sure I spelled it right), but he is expecting to be bringing 10-20 Spectacular 2 Year Olds in for the NYSS, and says this could be a landmark year for Tioga!

Exactas usually payout on the lower side, but Trifectas, Pick 3's, and $0.10 Superfectas can payoff boxcar numbers. I remember hitting a Trifecta 5/2, 9-1, 3-1 in a 9 horse race and had it pay $842 for the $2 Trifecta. Exacta only paid $81 for a $2 wager.

Have heard around the simulcast area Tioga is expecting to have some Top competition this year though, so hopefully it happens! This area needs the life! lol

[baconswitchfarm]

I wasn't implying the quality of the tioga horses were inferior. In fact they are on par with Monticello or Hoosier. The 5/8 mile racing product they put on is just poor. I checked my records for last year just to compare. I bet 358k at Monticello and 3k at Tioga. I wish they had a better product where I could bet more. The problem is the "take out doesn't matter crowd" will take these results and say people don't respond to lower takeouts . A store puts a major sale on a pile of manure but no one buys it. It doesn't neciessarily mean people don't care about great fiscal savings. It could mean people won't buy manure , no matter the price.

[DeanT]

Melman.... An average Saturday Handle can be anywhere between $120,000 to $180,000.

Hmmm, that is higher than I thought. That is not too bad.

[Ray2000]

All I could find on Handle was the USTA published record handle for 8/12/06

$354,898 at Tioga.

Will's numbers seem right.. Thanks Will

Canadian Tracks publish the handles with the chart results. In USA the only track that I know which releases that info is the BigM (in their charts at their web site). Does anyone know of any good source for US track handles in Harness?

[DeanT]

The only other track I see publish some handle numbers is YR, Ray. I have looked around but can not find a thing in one website, like SC/CPMA does with Canadian racing.

[Stick]

Balmoral and Maywood show the handle at the bottom of the results on their individual sites. For me, when you look for results and the track's website takes you to the USTA website, you will get limited info.

[badcompany]

Saratoga Harness does about 150k a night.

I actually did quite well at Tioga, last year, but, I noticed that exactas paid relatively low compared to the win/place odds.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I am really excited about this loweing of retention rates in that this gives the fan a chance to speak volumes to the whole racing industry. If a track can double or triple its handle by dropping the rates we shall soon see it spread to other tracks. It will be those tracks that are losing the money that we usually bet (for me the Meadows) and are now spending it at Tioga.

I closed my website last October and had no plans to re-enter this game until now. My site will be active again and will be highlighted by Tioga Downs. I will run only until September when Ocean and Tioga Downs finish their meet.

I wrte Jason at Tioga who helped me in securing some pictures for my site. The following pages will be used during this summer.


http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdsun.htm (http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdsun.htm)
http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdmon.htm (http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdmon.htm)
http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdwed.htm (http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdwed.htm)
http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdfri.htm (http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdfri.htm)
http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdsat.htm (http://mysite.verizon.net/r.zanakis/picks/tgdsat.htm)

I can not stress enough the importance of our participation in growing the wagering pools at Tioga. I might even enjoy it as I have wagered on many 5/8 mile tracks such as ScD, PPk, Chester, Meadows, Pokie, DD.

Changing the subject a bit, Ocean Downs will have slots this summer,,,,think I read about 500 or so of them. That can only help them out. I have come to love that track in the summer months. BTY they post our picks on their video program so it is a self serving promotion I guess.

[Pacingguy]

Read in the April edition of HoofBeats that Tioga Downs will be racing using the classified system this year.

In HoofBeats there is an article discussing the classified system and apparently there was some thought to introducing it at the Meadowlands this year, but the racing secretary got cold feet. My guess is next year if there is no subsidy we will see classified racing at the Meadowlands.

Interesting thing in the article was regarding claiming races, how the big stables would jam the claiming races to pick up the purse. One person was attributed to saying it is a 'big man's game' and get over it. It may be a big man's game but trainers need to remember they are racing as much for the customer as they are for the owner. If no one is betting, they wouldn't be around. People don't want to cash $3.80 horses.

[Zman179]

Here were the last four nights handle for the 2009 meet at Tioga:

$119,487 - 10 races (Wed)
$121,206 - 13 races (Fri)
$157,511 - 11 races (Sat)
$140,772 - 11 races (Sun)

I'll support Tioga when they start running again, especially on Sunday afternoons.

[melman]

Thanks for digging up those numbers Zman. Let's see if we can really improve on them big time. It all starts Saturday night May 1st at 6:50. Sunday afternoon racing at 1:30.

[badcompany]

Changing the subject a bit, Ocean Downs will have slots this summer,,,,think I read about 500 or so of them. That can only help them out. I have come to love that track in the summer months. BTY they post our picks on their video program so it is a self serving promotion I guess.

Hopefully, this will bring some better horses as a result of bigger purses. I used to like Ocean, as my specialty is 1/2 mile speed favoring tracks, but, last year the horses were so bad the track was unbettable.

[pandy]

They do not have an awful product, the cards are pretty good.

[Ray2000]

$200,000 Open Pace for aged horses..... Jun 13th

This is something Harness racing needs. It will be interesting to see who shows up. Warm up Mister Big. Maybe pull some of those Studs out of their stalls??

The Artiscape (Mare Pace) is the Sunday before Jun 6th

(Vernon Downs does the trotters)


Thanks and a "tip o' the hat" to Jeff Gural Owner and Chairman of Tioga Downs and Vernon Downs / Blue Chip Farms for sponsoring this race, and lowering the takeouts...