Looking for some balls

[Handiman]

I need some help in finding or growing some. I am playing Tampa today and a race just went off a few minutes ago. Using Handifast naturally.

HeadHawg's Power number liked the 1 horse. Gave it the top number. I looked at the horse and it was going off at 80-1 so no friggin way was that power number correct. I was giving Headhawg the raspberry as the horses left the gate.

When they got back around to the finish line, the 1 strolled across the finsih line by himself and paid $163.00 to win.

Thanks a million Headhawg for making me feel so bad and inept....:bang:


Handi :lol:

[headhawg]

Been there, done that, still looking for 'em. :lol:

[Donnie]

Handi--

Jan30th, GP Race 3.....almost did the same thing on the 80-1 in that race...sometimes ya just gotta believe....

[douglasw32]

WOW

[headhawg]

In HHX v2.1 using Bris files the winner had an 86 with the 8 and 10 having an 87, so it was 3rd. However, in the C-C rating it had a 99, 17 points higher than 2nd rated horse. It might have been lsosa who posted that you can't ignore a horse that's got a #1 rating.

[douglasw32]

EVER

[Fingal]

I need some help in finding or growing some. I am playing Tampa today and a race just went off a few minutes ago. Using Handifast naturally.

HeadHawg's Power number liked the 1 horse. Gave it the top number. I looked at the horse and it was going off at 80-1 so no friggin way was that power number correct. I was giving Headhawg the raspberry as the horses left the gate.

When they got back around to the finish line, the 1 strolled across the finsih line by himself and paid $163.00 to win.

Thanks a million Headhawg for making me feel so bad and inept....:bang:


Handi :lol:

That's why if one has a good set of numbers that have proved their worth over time, trust the numbers.
People make judgements, numbers don't.
There must have been something there the program saw, don't try to out think it.

[lsosa54]

HHx v2.1, default settings, $1 BRIS file:

In the 7th and 8th @ SAX today, the #1 ranked fair odds horses both paid over $20. The horse in the La Cañada (R8) was a 30-1 ML that was bet in half and won.

Another board member, Big Al, alerted me to the 6th at PHA yesterday. The #1 fair odds horse won and paid $10 and change. There were 2 horses with the same # of fair odds points tied for 2nd. One was a 20-1 ML that placed at $84+ and showed at $31+. His actual odds were only 113 to 1.

The cold exacta was $424+. The 4th ranked fair odds horse completed the tri for $3500+.

And to think that we have Doug's wife to blame for starting all this!

[lsosa54]

Handi--

Jan30th, GP Race 3.....almost did the same thing on the 80-1 in that race...sometimes ya just gotta believe....

Still remember that one, Donnie. 2nd fair odds horse under HHxv2.1, default, $1 BRIS file and the 3rd fair odds horse completed the $1155.20 exacta.

The tri was $3189.10 and the super was $26,875.20. The show horse was the top P-S rank . The 4th place horse was a 1st time starter.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I need some help in finding or growing some. I am playing Tampa today and a race just went off a few minutes ago. Using Handifast naturally.

HeadHawg's Power number liked the 1 horse. Gave it the top number. I looked at the horse and it was going off at 80-1 so no friggin way was that power number correct. I was giving Headhawg the raspberry as the horses left the gate.

When they got back around to the finish line, the 1 strolled across the finsih line by himself and paid $163.00 to win.

Thanks a million Headhawg for making me feel so bad and inept....:bang:


Handi :lol:

In the fake world the bets should alway's be automatic...but we are human.

[PhantomOnTour]

Feel no way brother, I had the 43-1 winner of the Busher yesterday at Aqu and bet her 2nd and 3rd in tri's ONLY!! I keyed her in those spots but not a fargin dime on top! Made a late halfhearted attempt to put about $10 win on her thru my adw account but was shut out :bang: :bang:

I guess this goes under an 'IDIOT' thread as opposed to a 'NO BALLS' thread, but thanks anyway for the venting space.

[Greyfox]

Make your play, as you see it and cover with a throw of $ 2 bucks on the boomer? Does a $2 buck bet take balls?

[Vinnie]

Ziggin and Zaggin:

Looking at way too many tools when all that I should have been using was Handifast v2.1 for Santa Anita. What is wrong with me?? :bang:
Nobody's fault but my own. Checked the Santa Anita Report for the P6 yesterday and H-Fast was all over it as lsosa54 had mentioned. Race #3 thought it wide open so played 1-3-6-7. The #3 Leaving New York beat the Fave#6 Tiz Argent by a nose for $9.60. It was all right there in the Fair Odds for the entire P6.

Race 5- I singled the #3 Came Aboard. Came in 3rd with the #6 Mr. Saturday Night winning. Not hard to find on P-C and Form. 2nd M/L and 3rd in Fair Odds.

Race 6- Sky Marni (#8) and #9 You Can Dream. $2 dolllar Ex. - $40.00 Both horses right on Top of the Fair Odds. $14.40 to Win on #8 Sky Marni. Sky Marni nice edge on DS and PC.

Race 7- #1 Fair Odds horse Leedstheway wins at $21.40. He had a remarkable advantage in DS with a 105. Tied for Best FAST rating and 2nd in PWR.

Race 8- #1 Fair Odds horse Striking Dancer wins and Pays - $28.60. Of course, I singled the #1 Unrivaled Bell to win on the front. Whoops!! :)

Race 9- I thought that the #3 Laugh til I cry had Cheap speed so I played the #9 and #2. The #9 Champion Ride won and paid $6.80. springing a Big P6 payout of 330k+. WOW!! What an incredible handicapping tool... :)

Handi:

I didn't even download Tampa yesterday, but, I feel for you. I have always loved HH's PWR Rating and I can't believe that the 86 to 1 shot was on Top for that rating. Unbelievable stuff. My wife was watching that race and she said, "Would you believe that an 80 to 1 or better longshot just came in at Tampa Bay Downs"? WOW!!! :)


Have a wonderful holiday guys.

[dansan]

picking them is one thing betting them is a whole different story

[lsosa54]

I also think part of the problem is that a lot of us are using other programs we've used for years as well and we don't trrust the output from Handifast fully yet vs. those programs we're familiar with and have developed some trust in.

I think the only way may be to use Handifast exclusively for awhile and record the results.

[Overlay]

HeadHawg's Power number liked the 1 horse. Gave it the top number. I looked at the horse and it was going off at 80-1 so no friggin way was that power number correct.

I understand the need for proprietary logarithms in software, but it seems to me that confidence in wagering would come a whole lot easier if a handicapper had some insight into how the program developed its selections/ratings/rankings, so that it would be possible to tell where the disconnect was if the public odds were drastically out of line, and decide how to respond. (Even the proprietary hurdle could be surmounted if the program also used those logarithms to develop fair odds for every horse in the race. Then there wouldn't be reason for concern as to how many people knew about or were using the information.)

[Overlay]

I understand the need for proprietary logarithms in software, but it seems to me that confidence in wagering would come a whole lot easier if a handicapper had some insight into how the program developed its selections/ratings/rankings, so that it would be possible to tell where the disconnect was if the public odds were drastically out of line, and decide how to respond. (Even the proprietary hurdle could be surmounted if the program also used those logarithms to develop fair odds for every horse in the race. Then there wouldn't be reason for concern as to how many people knew about or were using the information.)

Sorry for the transposition errors. Of course, I meant "algorithms", rather than "logarithms".

[Sly7449]

That's why if one has a good set of numbers that have proved their worth over time, trust the numbers.
People make judgements, numbers don't.
There must have been something there the program saw, don't try to out think it.

I took a look at this race with the Program I am using. Such Horse was Ranked 1 in two of the Composite Factors.

Sly

[Handiman]

Over,



Funny thing is that there is no proprietary algorithms. It's all open source code. Available to anyone who wants it.

I believe the statement that we are just not use to nor do we trust the output yet. As a result, once I get the CSV output all coded in Handifast, I am going to turn to connecting a database to it, if I possibly can.

Hnadi

[Vinnie]

Greetings Handi:

I hope that you have been feeling outstanding of late and you are getting stronger and stronger by the day?! :) Handi, I may have missed this somewhere (the post) but, is there a version of Handifast available that calculates an oddsline for all horses entered in a particular race? Just checking.

I really enjoyed following along with the Black Box contest that you recently held by the way.

[lsosa54]

Greetings Handi:

Handi, I may have missed this somewhere (the post) but, is there a version of Handifast available that calculates an oddsline for all horses entered in a particular race? Just checking.



Handi6 gives you the fair odds for all horses displayed on the bottom right.

HHXv2.1 will only display the top 4, but you can find the info for all horses in the first of two csv output files. Should be the column before the points (next to last column in the csv if I recall).

[Vinnie]

lsosa54:

Thank you very much for clearing that up for me. I appreciate it.
I haven't had much of a chance to play with the MT-6 version as of yet. I guess that I had better get started. :)

[Force of One]

Just kidding! Seriosuly though my two suggestions are:

1) Put a little side fund, call it the "questionable bombs bankroll" for plays like this that you go to when your program points one out, or an angle that has worked for you in the past, etc (not tips though!)

2) Remember that virtually every 80-1 type horse has some kind of major questions about it (class, layoff, whatever) so you will virtually never find horse at these type of odds you will bet with maximum confidence. If they looked that rock-solid, they would be nowhere near those odds.

3) Bonus tip: beat yourself up a little, but not too much - just enough so you remember next time this situation occurs (and it WILL) and you pull the trigger. Best of luck!