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View Full Version : Longshot Picks for the Longest Day of the year


Ray2000
06-21-2009, 10:03 AM
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Betting Win and Key box Exactas a/bc except*

Chester R5..........425 Riddler On Theroof ~12/1
Could have a shot with 2nd over live cover and a fast pace, should be long on board

Chester R10.........258 Green Day ~10/1
was putting up some nice TM SRs even if they were tow-alongs and then had 2 bad posts
went the long mile in last has a 67% ITM, could make a good 1 for the money 2 for the show bet

The BigM R7.........9/2348 Nf Jazz ~10/1
The break at the start in last and post 9 might scare away enough bettors to make this bet attractive
Playing Win and 9 on top 2348 exacta*

Rockingham R6.......853 Day Jet ~15/1
5 yr old tied his LTM in last, winning by 4 lengths from a 9 hole post and FQT 27-4
Can he handle the step up in class? IMO for a trotter ...yes

Balmoral R8.........543 I'M Good To Go ~12/1
She's dropping into the 4K claimers and I can overlook last 2 races from pp9
a race like the one on May 23 would beat these but need at least 4/1

_____These aren't longshots but a couple more I like at Balmoral

Balmoral R11........138 Sports Junky ~4/1
ML fav #5 not that impressive and a NW 2 cond claimers where the fight is for the place purse

Balmoral R12........369 Nj'S Super Sport ~5/1
I used this gelding in my "stable" in the Bal contest and he did OK, (I didn't:))
Nice 26-3 FQT in last race


Good Luck Everyone

LottaKash
06-21-2009, 02:04 PM
Hey Ray, Longies for the Longest, good idea....:D

I like that NF Jazz as well, and I am going to give him a good look at the odds... I think he has a great shot in that affair, especially if it stopped raining and the front end is stupid on the drying track....

Good luck with those......

best,

Ray2000
06-21-2009, 02:47 PM
Thanks Lk, Best of Luck back to you.

A question if you don't mind.

I know you like pace handicapping as a big factor, (maybe the biggest), and specially the first part/last part pace comparisons. Do you find a difference in using this factor on Trot races vs Pace races? Do you score more on trotters or pacers, assuming they behave themselves?

I think it's generally accepted that trotters can hold their form for a few races more than pacers, and was thinking that if you find one with "stand out" pace numbers, the chance of repeating those numbers is high.

Just curious....

LottaKash
06-21-2009, 04:21 PM
Hey Ray, for me, there is no difference between the "species"....MOstly it is about getting a horse with good numbers and determining *(which is the hard part), whether a horse is improving, regressing or staying the same....Most good handicappers miss out on this part, I mean they are very knowledgeable and have a great grasp of things, but they often miss the boat on the current form-cycle part...)(myself included)....My biggest mistakes come from a lack of focus, and missing the current form cylcle part...otherwise we would win more often, wouldn't we...?

best,

Ray2000
06-22-2009, 12:32 AM
Thanks for the reply Johnny, interesting.....


Results for the Longest Day

Chester R5..........521 no
Chester R10.........176 no
The BigM R7.........459 no
Rockingham R6.......324 no
Balmoral R8.........356 Exacta $23.40
Balmoral R11........153 Winner $8.20
Balmoral R12........349 Winner $11.00
.......................My Bell Boy #9 almost rang the 'Bell' in the Exacta (11/1)

$70 in, $43 back -$27

Stick
06-22-2009, 12:36 AM
Ray,

I'm Good To Go goes off at even money while somehow NJ's Super Sport pays $11.0 ! This is why I stopped betting early at this track. Nice job at Balmoral Ray.:)

LottaKash
06-22-2009, 02:48 AM
Thanks for the reply Johnny, interesting.....


Results for the Longest Day

Chester R5..........521 no
Chester R10.........176 no
The BigM R7.........459 no
Rockingham R6.......324 no
Balmoral R8.........356 Exacta $23.40
Balmoral R11........153 Winner $8.20
Balmoral R12........349 Winner $11.00
.......................My Bell Boy #9 almost rang the 'Bell' in the Exacta (11/1)

$70 in, $43 back -$27

Ray, I didn't see your picks until later on, but we were on the same page in the 12th at Bmp....I was ready to pack it in, as I had been up a good while and the computer screen was becoming a bit blurred, so after I finished up with Mohawk, I took a stroll over to Bmp, and caught the NJ sports hoss....

Isn't it funny how the Illinois bettors get screwed on the payouts....that hoss paid $10.80 live at the track and yet out of state, I got the $11.00 mutuel...It doesn't sound like much, but on a $2.00 wager that is 5%, and if you add that up over the long haul, it becomes a much larger number than $.20....I bet $20 Win on that one, so if I played on track I would've come up $2.00 short....Hey every little loss is a loss...No wonder Illinois Harness is going down the toilet...That is a lot of ............$.20 cent's going to whoever, lots... They keep draining their fans....

best,

Stick
06-22-2009, 03:09 AM
You are right LK. They have been bleeding Illinois residents dry for years. Imagine being live and getting a lower payout than someone out of state. Let's say the horse tonight paid $11.01 Now after they take out their extra vig, the horse pays $10.95 Now the breakage jumps in and the winner pays $10.80

Now comes the next problem. An offshore book will not only let you play your track at full odds, but give you an additional rebate of 3% to 5%. At 5% your $20 bet gets you another buck. Now you at a $3 difference for one bet. What a sad situation.

LottaKash
06-22-2009, 03:24 PM
You are right LK. They have been bleeding Illinois residents dry for years. Imagine being live and getting a lower payout than someone out of state. Let's say the horse tonight paid $11.01 Now after they take out their extra vig, the horse pays $10.95 Now the breakage jumps in and the winner pays $10.80

Now comes the next problem. An offshore book will not only let you play your track at full odds, but give you an additional rebate of 3% to 5%. At 5% your $20 bet gets you another buck. Now you at a $3 difference for one bet. What a sad situation.

Yeah STick, the american racetracks, just don't get it....:confused:

best,