Longshot Picks for the Longest Day of the year

[Ray2000]

Sunday, June 21, 2009
Betting Win and Key box Exactas a/bc except*

Chester R5..........425 Riddler On Theroof ~12/1
Could have a shot with 2nd over live cover and a fast pace, should be long on board

Chester R10.........258 Green Day ~10/1
was putting up some nice TM SRs even if they were tow-alongs and then had 2 bad posts
went the long mile in last has a 67% ITM, could make a good 1 for the money 2 for the show bet

The BigM R7.........9/2348 Nf Jazz ~10/1
The break at the start in last and post 9 might scare away enough bettors to make this bet attractive
Playing Win and 9 on top 2348 exacta*

Rockingham R6.......853 Day Jet ~15/1
5 yr old tied his LTM in last, winning by 4 lengths from a 9 hole post and FQT 27-4
Can he handle the step up in class? IMO for a trotter ...yes

Balmoral R8.........543 I'M Good To Go ~12/1
She's dropping into the 4K claimers and I can overlook last 2 races from pp9
a race like the one on May 23 would beat these but need at least 4/1

_____These aren't longshots but a couple more I like at Balmoral

Balmoral R11........138 Sports Junky ~4/1
ML fav #5 not that impressive and a NW 2 cond claimers where the fight is for the place purse

Balmoral R12........369 Nj'S Super Sport ~5/1
I used this gelding in my "stable" in the Bal contest and he did OK, (I didn't)
Nice 26-3 FQT in last race


Good Luck Everyone

[LottaKash]

Hey Ray, Longies for the Longest, good idea....

I like that NF Jazz as well, and I am going to give him a good look at the odds... I think he has a great shot in that affair, especially if it stopped raining and the front end is stupid on the drying track....

Good luck with those......

best,

[Ray2000]

Thanks Lk, Best of Luck back to you.

A question if you don't mind.

I know you like pace handicapping as a big factor, (maybe the biggest), and specially the first part/last part pace comparisons. Do you find a difference in using this factor on Trot races vs Pace races? Do you score more on trotters or pacers, assuming they behave themselves?

I think it's generally accepted that trotters can hold their form for a few races more than pacers, and was thinking that if you find one with "stand out" pace numbers, the chance of repeating those numbers is high.

Just curious....

[LottaKash]

Hey Ray, for me, there is no difference between the "species"....MOstly it is about getting a horse with good numbers and determining *(which is the hard part), whether a horse is improving, regressing or staying the same....Most good handicappers miss out on this part, I mean they are very knowledgeable and have a great grasp of things, but they often miss the boat on the current form-cycle part...)(myself included)....My biggest mistakes come from a lack of focus, and missing the current form cylcle part...otherwise we would win more often, wouldn't we...?

best,

[Ray2000]

Thanks for the reply Johnny, interesting.....


Results for the Longest Day

Chester R5..........521 no
Chester R10.........176 no
The BigM R7.........459 no
Rockingham R6.......324 no
Balmoral R8.........356 Exacta $23.40
Balmoral R11........153 Winner $8.20
Balmoral R12........349 Winner $11.00
.......................My Bell Boy #9 almost rang the 'Bell' in the Exacta (11/1)

$70 in, $43 back -$27

[Stick]

Ray,

I'm Good To Go goes off at even money while somehow NJ's Super Sport pays $11.0 ! This is why I stopped betting early at this track. Nice job at Balmoral Ray.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Thanks for the reply Johnny, interesting.....


Results for the Longest Day

Chester R5..........521 no
Chester R10.........176 no
The BigM R7.........459 no
Rockingham R6.......324 no
Balmoral R8.........356 Exacta $23.40
Balmoral R11........153 Winner $8.20
Balmoral R12........349 Winner $11.00
.......................My Bell Boy #9 almost rang the 'Bell' in the Exacta (11/1)

$70 in, $43 back -$27

Ray, I didn't see your picks until later on, but we were on the same page in the 12th at Bmp....I was ready to pack it in, as I had been up a good while and the computer screen was becoming a bit blurred, so after I finished up with Mohawk, I took a stroll over to Bmp, and caught the NJ sports hoss....

Isn't it funny how the Illinois bettors get screwed on the payouts....that hoss paid $10.80 live at the track and yet out of state, I got the $11.00 mutuel...It doesn't sound like much, but on a $2.00 wager that is 5%, and if you add that up over the long haul, it becomes a much larger number than $.20....I bet $20 Win on that one, so if I played on track I would've come up $2.00 short....Hey every little loss is a loss...No wonder Illinois Harness is going down the toilet...That is a lot of ............$.20 cent's going to whoever, lots... They keep draining their fans....

best,

[Stick]

You are right LK. They have been bleeding Illinois residents dry for years. Imagine being live and getting a lower payout than someone out of state. Let's say the horse tonight paid $11.01 Now after they take out their extra vig, the horse pays $10.95 Now the breakage jumps in and the winner pays $10.80

Now comes the next problem. An offshore book will not only let you play your track at full odds, but give you an additional rebate of 3% to 5%. At 5% your $20 bet gets you another buck. Now you at a $3 difference for one bet. What a sad situation.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Stick

You are right LK. They have been bleeding Illinois residents dry for years. Imagine being live and getting a lower payout than someone out of state. Let's say the horse tonight paid $11.01 Now after they take out their extra vig, the horse pays $10.95 Now the breakage jumps in and the winner pays $10.80

Now comes the next problem. An offshore book will not only let you play your track at full odds, but give you an additional rebate of 3% to 5%. At 5% your $20 bet gets you another buck. Now you at a $3 difference for one bet. What a sad situation.

Yeah STick, the american racetracks, just don't get it....

best,