WRD Race 6 - Free PP's, Figs and Much More

[DeanT]

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/

FAST Sheets, CJ's figs, Platinum plus PP's etc are on the blog.

[highnote]

All the links that are fit to print:

Free Platinum PPs -- http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/avatars/RACE6wrd0331p.pdf

Trackmaster Fast Sheets -- http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/avatars/RACE6wrd0331zf.pdf

CJ speed and pace figures: http://www.pacefigures.com/WRD090331.htm

HTR -- http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showpost.php?p=80600&postcount=57

Jay of PA analysis -- http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=659209&postcount=18

[tomath2o]

As is often the case in an N2L claimer like this, the horses that have the best numbers - like #3 Super Comandante and #10 Perfect Soldier - have had many chances to win at this level, and always seem to find a way to lose. They are always underlays, and hence unbettable for me.

There are a few recent maiden winners, but if their BRIS class numbers are correct, the quality of those races are far below this one. Some of them are lightly raced, and can improve, like #11 Cowger, #5 French Uncle and #7 Dirt Farmer. The latter in particular did get competitive speed/class numbers in his last, but as ML favorite off a maiden win, is also an underlay. His rider looks questionable also.

I like #8 Eagle Dancer.
His last 2 were higher class than this, and he has won going long recently (albeit on turf) at a BRIS race class just below this.

True, he may not like dirt at all.
He is also a 3 yo going against older, but at this level I think that doesn't meant that much myself.
He also has a running style that may not fit the track, and his post is not great either.

But that's why he's an overlay ;-)
Note that he does get the services of a leading rider, which may mean the connections are serious.
He's worth a bet at 5-1 or more, in my opinion.

Tom

[DeanT]

I think I like the three horse. Good race though, quite competitive. You would think horseplayers picked it or something!

Funny line on another board, and it shows the reach of the internet.

"[I'm]in the middle of a baseball draft and two guys start talking about the 6th at Will Rogers tomorrow."

[stuball]

A little negative handicapping for your appraisal.
these horses have less than 2% chance ofwinning
and less than 5% chance to be in the exacta.

4th---------7----8
5th---------1-2-7-8-12
6th---------2-4-5-1-1A

will check back later

Stuball

[chickenhead]

I threw down on the 10 this morning...kind of a sucker play, but what the hell. It'll be interesting to see what kind of odds we end up with all around.

[DeanT]

I threw down on the 10 this morning...kind of a sucker play, but what the hell. It'll be interesting to see what kind of odds we end up with all around.

I have supertote up and am wondering the same thing. Does advance bet money go right into the pools? If so it should be funny to watch. Watching the fifth races early money is somewhat comical! Not much there.

[Cangamble]

So far so good.
I started playing in the fourth (because the pick 3 goes into the 6th which I of course had to handicap).
I bet a $4 ex box :3::6: and a $1 tri box :3::6::8: as well as a $1 pick 3 :6::3: - :10::11: - :3::10: and a $3 DD PW :3::6: with :10::11:

Hit the ex for a comeback of 98.80 for me.

I'm undefeated so far lifetime at WRD.

In the fifth I just took a $1 tribox :9::10::11:

I've advanced $54 so far in the 6th. More to come :)

[JustRalph]

:10: :11: :3: :7:

in the 6th

[RichieP]

:5::11::10:

[JustRalph]

I think the :7: is a huge overlay at 30-1 :eek:

I have never played this track.........take it with a grain of salt

[Ted Craven]

Across the board on #11 :)

[cj]

I settled on the 8.

[cj]

I know the horses are bad, but 27 and 2, 51 and 2 seems a bit silly.

[andicap]

looks like we had some impact. We at least doubled the 4th race handle by my estimate. (I couldn't find a trifecta pool count for the 6th race) But by my very rough calcs, we did very well.

[Ted Craven]

I show the win pools for:

Race 4 - $2503
Race 5 - $6286
Race 6 - $8537

I guess that's a splash...

[DeanT]

looks like we had some impact. By my very rough estimate, we doubled the total handle from the 4th race (not counting pik 3s, ). But I could have calculated everything wrong.

I think so. I am looking at perhaps a 100-150% increase, but we c.

All I know is I lost all my money :)

[exactaplayer]

Exacta pool was up substantially. from previous three races.

[Robert Fischer]

:ThmbUp: increase is a positive.

[Cangamble]

Got out nodded last jump for my 4 horse tri box. But Will Rogers was successful for me.
I bet $137.40 and cashed $214.70

Still down on the day thanks to Turf Paradise and Tampa Bay though. But not much.

[stuball]

I think there was spillover into the 5th race....numbers are
higher in both races....I had 40 wp on the 10...good day
walked away + 168. Good thing I passed on the ex and tri as
1 of my negative horses finished 2nd...had decent late speed.


Stuball

[DeanT]

You are right stew. I and a few of my compatriots bet the fifth. The seventh might be better. Back down to $6000 in the ex pools and around $7500 or so in the win pools for that one. About half of race six.

Someone suggested race 7 as the race to play last week. Sheesh, I would have had the ex box instead of getting roasted :)

[stuball]

Next time let's do a track more people can get into..I know some missed this..maybe a weekend will help also..but not
bad for a first outing....Let's improve on it so we get in their
head...hard heads for sure but we can do it...

Stuball

[JustRalph]

I expected much more in the pools..................

[DeanT]

We're pretty thrilled. The first Ellis Park pick 4 with a lot of publicity resulted in about a $10,000 bump. We bumped these pools at little Will Rogers by 20-25k. Not too bad at all.

Final numbers and a little story here. I would say it is accurate, very pleased. Looking forward to the next one!

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/news/3-31-09/hana-pleased-with-experiment.html

[BUD]

That was great--And everyone came together for the cause--The PP's etc---- So If Dean and the rest of HANA is satisfied---I to will be satisfied with what we did----I sure hope we pick up some print besides what we release on this---That would really ease my worries......All in all--Not bad for a first run-----

Our Pedigree may not be so great but our trainers are great...

OK thats a corny line----Again not bad for a first step-....

[Cangamble]

A little off topic, but we even get mentioned in Youbet press releases now:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Youbetcom-Renews-Agreement-to-bw-14798330.html

[PaceAdvantage]

Whoever came up with the track rating idea deserves a raise.

[andicap]

Yep, triple their salary in fact.

I think for a first outing this was a fine showing and gives us some ideas for how to improve the next time out. I have to say, at the beginning I was very skeptical that a horseplayer's group could come together and get much accomplished.
Horseplayers rarely agree on much and usually cant be bothered to make any sacrifices to the cause. They gripe, gripe, gripe, but when it comes down to taking any concerted action -- like say boycotting a particular track -- they'll demur. "Hey, that's a good track for me. No way will I boycott."
But I think we have a chance this time of accomplishing something if people continue to act in concert, to make a sacrifice when needed. "Take one for the team," someone said here
Unless we can

a) expand our membership. Will happen with publicity.
b) convince members to go along with HANA-suggested actions.( After all, unions never would have succeeded if members had broken picket lines. )

We have little chance of long-term success.

[DanG]

There is a scene in Godfather II when Michael Corleone watches a Cuban rebel / who rather then be captured explodes a grenade he had hidden. Later when telling Hyman Roth this story Roth asks him; “What does this tell you?”. Corleone replies…”That they can win”.

We have a live grenade in this game; if were willing to collectively pull the pin.

[arno]

Jay liked the 10 horse due to 3rd race off layoff.

Yet CJ's figured did not have this as 3rd race off layoff (L3) as the horse had less than a 90 day layoff.

What do you consider a layoff horse. How many days?

[chickenhead]

just keep it building boys...the first step on a long journey.

The outcome is not only unknown but unknowable, but that's what makes these things both interesting and worth pursuing. I read a quote last night that I thought was apt (for my career, I was thinking at the time) for this effort:

“Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits—a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.” -- John Maynard Keynes

It may be our animal spirits at work, but they have been known to shift the foundations of much greater institutions than this.

[BUD]

“We are expecting another fantastic year at our historic racetrack, and this agreement should provide even more impetus for customers not familiar with us to use Youbet.com to check out the number-one track in the United States as rated by the Horseplayers Association of North America.”

The Name Is Making fast Headway thru the Masses.
wow-

[DeanT]

We did well and happy, however I asked a few people this, since many emailed and said they could not play the track on NYRA, Philly, NJbets, TVG etc. I think we did 20-25k. What do you think we'all would have done if all those platforms offered WRD?

As well, I heard from a couple people saying that being a 5:30PM et race that a number of on track and OTB bettors in the east left for the day.

Anyhoo, some things to chew on. I wonder what kind of potential we have if all those players are added to the mix.