WTH?

[Cangamble]

The post I wrote about tracks having to lower takeout has been removed from the main index at Bloodhorse. http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/thoroughbred-bloggers-alliance/default.aspx
I saved it on my favorites, so it is still somewhere in cyber space:
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/thoroughbred-bloggers-alliance/archive/2008/11/14/gamble.aspx
But comments have been removed.

I wonder if someone threatened to pull their advertising.

[cj]

Bloodhorse has always been an insider hack magazine. I'm not knocking it, but it is what it is. Bettors aren't subscribing to Bloodhorse.

[miesque]

It all comes back to the fact that the Blood-Horse is published by the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association (TOBA) and most of its funding is from ad revenue. Over the years there have been a few instances of articles/opinions being quietly taken down from their website including their more promient writers such as Steve Haskin.

[turfnsport]

Maybe they don't like Canadian Agitators.

We like 'em in these here parts. :ThmbUp:

My Bloodhorse always came late anyway.

[Suff]

The post I wrote about tracks having to lower takeout has been removed from the main index at Bloodhorse. .

PA has a part-time moderating gig over at Blood-Horse.

[rrbauer]

The post I wrote about tracks having to lower takeout has been removed from the main index at Bloodhorse. http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/thoroughbred-bloggers-alliance/default.aspx
I saved it on my favorites, so it is still somewhere in cyber space:
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/thoroughbred-bloggers-alliance/archive/2008/11/14/gamble.aspx
But comments have been removed.

I wonder if someone threatened to pull their advertising.

I left a comment yesterday evening. It probably did you in!!

[Indulto]

The post I wrote about tracks having to lower takeout has been removed from the main index at Bloodhorse. http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/thoroughbred-bloggers-alliance/default.aspx
I saved it on my favorites, so it is still somewhere in cyber space:
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/thoroughbred-bloggers-alliance/archive/2008/11/14/gamble.aspx
But comments have been removed.

I wonder if someone threatened to pull their advertising.I told you it was a good piece. What could be greater proof? :jump:

[Cangamble]

I left a comment yesterday evening. It probably did you in!!
Now there are three comments including yours in the Twilight Zone, including yours:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/thoroughbred-bloggers-alliance/archive/2008/11/14/gamble.aspx

But the only way to get to the post is to have saved it in favorites.

[Cangamble]

I went back and saw 8 comments, and now there are 6. I did copy the 8 comments though:) Richard's is gone again.

8 Comments:

SBVO,

You criticize this piece yet offer no back up for your assertions, which frankly are wrong.

Some facts on takeout:

Australia studied it and went to an optimal number (and this was done before the pre-internet age). They, to maximize revenue have a 16% takeout ceiling. Their takeout is 37% less than the US and it is mandated by their central organization.

The UK has six percent takeouts through bookies (on shorter shots), who are in business for one thing - to maximize their revenue. Do you think bookies are leaving money on the table by not charging 20%? If so, with respect, you don't know bookies.

University of Colorado did a study long ago showing 11-13% takeouts are optimal.

The HPBA has said that racing has a churn factor of 7. With that churn factor, which is their own number, mathematically the optimal takeout is 13%.

Betfair in the UK studied hold and settled on about 5% for win takeouts. This firm is now, in six years worth over $4B dollars and contributes millions to UK racing and is widely considered the most successful gambling experiment in world history.

Hong Kong takeout was reduced via rebate by giving back 10% on losses to lower effective takeout. This move last year increased handles to over $67 billion there.

So to say that bloggers are not using facts, and are spouting off about things is simply not true. The people in US racing must realize that this game is priced like a monopoly and the monopoly does not exist any longer. The days of people falling over themselves to bet 22% blended takeouts are long gone, and until modern economics and econometric based policies are adopted to find optimal takeouts, and grow this business, expect the negative 25% real growth this business has had the last ten years to continue.

I have a degree in economics and own my own marketing firm if that makes you feel better about my post, however I am not naive or egotistical enough to think that it matters. This information is there for anyone who wants it by digging on the web, and I for one applaud people like this author for bringing it to the attention of racing. Just like it is inevitable that takeouts need to be reduced for our business to compete, it is also inevitable that good bloggers like this can expedite this process and help racing achieve what we all want - success.


Huh? 15 Nov 2008 4:09 PM

Here's the facts. Horse racing is an elite sport.

The only average people who can afford it are people who are involved in MEGA partnerships, not even the elite partnerships, or at the lower level tracks. Those who own on the elite level have expendable income/funds. We know we're not doing it to get rich, won't happen. It's for the fun, enjoyment, camaraderie, competition and travel. Yes maybe a little ego involved too.

Just like owning a sports franchise isn't available to everyone, owning top race horses in the premier circuits isn't either.

If you have to worry about making ends meet or paying the bills then it's probably not for you at least in the upper echelon.

Truthfully though, does the guy who owns the Yankees have any more or as much fun as the guy who sponsors the little league or softball teams? No, the big league guy just has more headaches.


ImOwnin 15 Nov 2008 4:24 PM

I agree with part of the paragraph above that states...

"In fact, if racing were to increase their fan/bettor base by competing for more players, the other problems would go away"...etc.

And I agree with Huh? about decreasing the racedates to increase purses. Instead of racing 5 days a week, why not cut it to 4 and make it a Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday schedule when more people are able to come out to the track.

But, and this is what I have always had a hard time understanding...

Why is it that most race tracks refuse to run at night with like a 7:00PM first post ??? I mean how can you "EXPECT" people to come out to the races for a first post at 1:15PM on a weekday when most of them have to work untill 4-5-6PM ??? I can understand having a first post of 1:15PM on a weekend when most people are off of work, but on a weekday ??? Racing has always been killing its own potential fan base because of this.

Maybe race track owners just lack Vision and Common Sense ???

Or maybe it's just me ???


CRob87 15 Nov 2008 6:28 PM

FourCats, I wouldn't have the audacity to make suggestions that only benefited horseplayers.

A radical cut in takeout will still get the same bottom line of money lost from the existing horse players, but it will also attract new players on the premise the game is beatable again.

Everybody wins.


Cangamble 15 Nov 2008 8:20 PM

The argument for reducing takeout assumes that gamblers are rational. That's the principal assumption in Econ. 101 macroeconomics, and it's pretty clearly been proven wrong by recent work in behavioral economics.

A more sensible view is that different parts of the betting world have different degrees of rationality. At one pole, nearest the classic assumption, are the "whales" who bet millions of dollars a year through rebate shops, and have an effective takeout rate of perhaps 3%. At the other end are the casual fans, or the old men you see at Aqueduct, who bring $20 to the track and haven't the faintest idea of what the takeout level might be. For them, racing is entertainment, and the $20 is cheaper than going to a ball game. Somewhere in between are the perhaps imaginary members of our target demographic -- all those 20- and 30-somethings who might be attracted by the fun and spectacle of the sport, but who aren't truly rational economic men and women, though they can usually do the math.

At most, 20% of total nationwide handle comes from the rational end of the spectrum. The experiments that have been done to date with lower takeout don't prove anything much, and we don't really know enough to say what optimal takeout might be. When John Brunetti raised it to 28% at Hialeah, that was clearly too much, but I have no idea whether 10%, 14% or some other number entirely is right. Nor does anyone else.

Steve (who has a law degree and has worked as a UN economist)


Steve Zorn 15 Nov 2008 8:48 PM

Good just to see people on here care & wanting to fix things!!! Long Live The Owners!!!


Bellwether 15 Nov 2008 11:18 PM

There are plenty of people who make a living from racing that aren't horseplayers. But, unless you arrange for the general public to subsidize racing (as in slot-machine revenue) and replace the purse money that comes from betting handle with other sources then like it, or not, if you don't take care of your lifeblood, the bettor, the outlook for the game is poor. Reducing takeout will extend the bankrolls of the current customer base giving some of them a chance to actually be winners and position the game in a more competitive light for the general publics' gambling dollars. If you think horseplayers' money is not paramount then why is there so much fighting over it by the various factions that make up the industry?


Richard R 16 Nov 2008 8:37 PM

I'm a guy who went with his dad to the track in the 1970s. I can read the form, and have studied some famous books on handicapping. All to no avail.

A bet made is almost always money lost. I'm competing against much better handicappers, and, most certainly, inside information.

Illegal in the stock market, it's perfectly legal for those "in the know" to bet, or not bet, their horses. And to tell their friends.

And the beaten claimer that runs like Secretariat every so often suggests to me that drugs are much more effective and pervasive than even I, a skeptic, would have thought.

I've been betting off and on for 30 years, and can count my noteworthy winning days on one hand.


Used to Go with my Dad 17 Nov 2008 12:51 AM

[rrbauer]

Probably a backup/restore issue. Tote company IT employees moonlighting at BH. :lol:

[The Judge]

The big Auto Makers are now asking for a helping hand all because of an attitude problem. If they had listen to the public on fuel efficient cars, and safty they would be leading the pack now not. They had the jump in technology on electric cars bio-fuel etc yet they fought it all the way paid lobbists, congressmen to front for them now they want the publics help.

Americans want to buy American products but they don't want to be punished for doing so. Think of all the police cars,buses, taxis, ambulances, govenment trucks, cars and motor-cycles, State, Local and Federal, CIA,the Armed Forces. Wow talk about a leg up on the competition.

In fact people like Ralph Nader was trying to show them the light trying to get them out of the dark. He was trivialized and made to seem unreasonable now they are broke.

Removing constructive criticism from the board remind you of anything?
"Don't bring me no bad news." Its all attitude.

[DeanT]

Too bad. A couple of those comments were funny. That SBVO guy that said you were an "internet user with just enough information to be dangerous" was worth laughing ones a** off.

It is wild. Write an article that prices in racing are too high and boom, people start calling you names.

I am going to go on McDonalds.com and mention that I think if they drop the price of fries 10 cents I think they will sell more. I will report back if Ronald McDonald starts crank calling my cell phone. If the Hamburlger is with him I am calling the cops!

[PaceAdvantage]

PA has a part-time moderating gig over at Blood-Horse.You must have realized by now that the only posts I delete are yours!

[Cangamble]

The post is back up at Bloodhorse. Minus the comments.

[rrbauer]

The post is back up at Bloodhorse. Minus the comments.

I tell you it's the part-time IT help from the tote outfits.

[BombsAway Bob]

Too bad. A couple of those comments were funny. That SBVO guy that said you were an "internet user with just enough information to be dangerous" was worth laughing ones a** off.

It is wild. Write an article that prices in racing are too high and boom, people start calling you names.

I am going to go on McDonalds.com and mention that I think if they drop the price of fries 10 cents I think they will sell more. I will report back if Ronald McDonald starts crank calling my cell phone. If the Hamburlger is with him I am calling the cops!
:mad: ..thanks, Dean! McD's responded by making the DoubleCheeBurger $1.19..!

[DeanT]

Anything I can do to help Bob. HANA has some pull. I am friends with the big purple bugger.

http://sdfhl.org/seasons/2008summer/results/grimace.jpg